June 2021 Weather Discussion

[cloudy72]

12z GFS much more progressive with the wave on Friday afternoon printing quite a bit of QPF across Indiana/NW Ohio while the NAM is mostly dry through 8pm Friday.

[tpweather]

Going to be a nice dose of rain this weekend with warm moist air climbing over the recent cool air. That usually brings some decent rains in the spring and fall but during the summer it can cause to much rain in one area.

[tron777]

It's going to be a headache trying to figure out exactly where that frontal boundary sets up shop. My current thinking is either along or NW of the I-71 corridor at the present time. Could be SE IN too or further west like that.

[tpweather]

High so far 68. What a struggle to make 70. Windows wide open and its even a little chilly.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is way NW with the front keeping a lot of us dry until Monday (minus Indy for example). Not going to bite on this yet, but that would be interesting if it were to occur. We would need to bump up the temps if correct. For now, going with the wetter GFS as we've already discussed.

[Bgoney]

It's going to be a headache trying to figure out exactly where that frontal boundary sets up shop. My current thinking is either along or NW of the I-71 corridor at the present time. Could be SE IN too or further west like that.

I think the trend has been that the last few model runs of GFS and now especially the EU is further west and hold off any soaking rains until at least Sunday.

[tpweather]

Sounds like the Euro in the winter time. Too early but trends have been further north and west. Love to see 1-2 inches say Saturday-Wednesday.

[tpweather]

Made it to 70 at CVG. Time to get the shorts out.

[tron777]

It's going to be a headache trying to figure out exactly where that frontal boundary sets up shop. My current thinking is either along or NW of the I-71 corridor at the present time. Could be SE IN too or further west like that.

I think the trend has been that the last few model runs of GFS and now especially the EU is further west and hold off any soaking rains until at least Sunday.

I hope this is an actual trend we're seeing here that continues. That would be nice.

[tron777]

Made it to 70 at CVG. Time to get the shorts out.

- Flip-Flop Nation!

[tpweather]

The weekend weather will depend on how strong the high is to the northeast of us. If this gets strong then rain chances will hold off longer but if the high is not quite as strong we could be in a position for some heavier rains. Lot of pieces to the puzzle which is rare during late June but it gives us weather lovers something to follow.

[tpweather]

Did anyone see the expected highs in the northwest next week. 105-110 in interior Washington. If this happens no doubt another big cool down later next week for us.

[tron777]

Great posts Tim! I think you are right on the money with your thinking here in terms of the weekend and the heat out West. 69 for my high today. I didn't even hit 70 and it's late June??? Sign me up! I love it! Got the grill going it's so wonderful outside!

[MVWxObserver]

Great weather talk by Brian this morning. He made the point about the heat in the west and a great point about how these heat ridges can be hard to move and if that continues which it should over the next 2 weeks then my call of a hot summer may go down the tubes which I would love to see. Starting later Friday into next week looks to be a wet period but not so much in terms of severe weather. Sure any thunderstorm can become severe but this situation looks more like a heavy rain event and one that can lead to flooding and also flash flooding. Way to soon to get exact on placement and lets hope its progressive but in the summer things move slower and this can be a problem. The upcoming period is about as busy that you will see during this time of year and I do feel for the lawn service folks who seem to be catching up at all times. I will be in SC next week and they look to get some rain as well but they may end up with another tropical system around the 4th or so to continue the wet weather down there which has been going on for 2 years or the same amount of time I have been going back and forth lol.

Hey Tim, I can see this wet pattern riding over the ridge out west continuing for a while. We went camping up at New Paris OH last weekend and while we had a tornado touch down around 15 miles north us, the biggest issue we had was the heavy rains flooding the campgrounds...there were snapping turtles coming out of the storm drainage pipes. We love our camping and may have to deal with more of these situations in the coming weeks. If we mix in a tropical system in this pattern who knows what would happen.

Wow Joe, coming out of the storm drainage pipes!! Speaking of snapping turtles, that scene in "Cool Hand Luke" when Luke retrieved a snapper that a 'boss' who was dubbed "No Eyes" had shot. The jaws on those critters are so powerful that they can break a broom handle in two!

Currently 66 here in Greenville and progged for near 50 Wed morning.

[tron777]

Snappers are tough! You've got to be so careful with them. When they latch on to something, they will not let go. I remember when my Brother and I were kids, we caught a little baby snapping turtle in the creek in the backyard and when it bit down on my brother's arm, Mom and Dad had to take him into the ER to have the turtle surgically removed. No joke! When they bite, they mean it!

[Bgoney]

Strong agreement between the GFS and EU for the heavy rains holding off for ILN's FA through the weekend. Not saying we couldn't see a pop-up on Sunday but nothing widespread the way it is looking atm.

[tron777]

The Euro maybe on to something here. 18Z GFS only has small chances this weekend into early next week keeping the higher rain totals to our West.

EDIT: Looks like we both just said the same thing Bgoney.

[MVWxObserver]

Snappers are tough! You've got to be so careful with them. When they latch on to something, they will not let go. I remember when my Brother and I were kids, we caught a little baby snapping turtle in the creek in the backyard and when it bit down on my brother's arm, Mom and Dad had to take him into the ER to have the turtle surgically removed. No joke! When they bite, they mean it!

Wow Les!!

If that series aired back then, Larry's situation would have also made for an interesting feature in "Untold Stories of the ER".

Thankful he came through it okay and that it was a baby one and not an adult!

[tron777]

49 here this morning, 53 at CVG.

[tron777]

GFS is dry now for us on Fri, a small chance Sat with the higher chances coming in Sun afternoon onwards as the front finally settles in and stalls. Euro is still slower and NW with very little happening minus some spotty PM action Mon and Tues. The front finally brings higher chances by Wed of next week. Place your bets...

[tron777]

51 officially this morning at CVG. 49 as I said here. No records though as that was 46 degrees set back in 1972.

[cloudy72]

52 in my hood this morning - felt wonderful out! I think slow is the way to go in the return of rainfall to the area. Have seen many times the "Ohio" ridge can be quite stubborn to give up. Must be that same wall that deflects all the snow to north of I-70 in the wintertime!

[tron777]

Mike,

We haven't coined that term "The Dome" for nothing, right?

[winterstormjoe]

Looking ahead towards the 4th of July weekend, the GFS seems to be mixing it up a bit with hints of a cool front pushing the chances of wet/humid weather out of the way. We'll see?

[tron777]

Looking ahead towards the 4th of July weekend, the GFS seems to be mixing it up a bit with hints of a cool front pushing the chances of wet/humid weather out of the way. We'll see?

Good morning Joe... I saw that but with it being so far out there, it's hard to say for sure. I think if the tropics don't flare up much, that could happen. That can be delayed though if a tropical system does develop. We'll have to wait and see.