June 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Agree, if we can hold off development until after noon things will get real interesting for 71 and east of there.

Strong signals for significant rains towards the end of the week and weekend throughout midwest and OV. MCS season looks to be in full swing , finally , with multiple clusters showing up in these regions late week and beyond

I know Tim and I have been going with a hotter and drier July and August. July currently looks to start off the same way June ends. Would love to be wrong about the heat so the longer this pattern goes, the better off we're going to be in that dept. However, at the same time, we pay the price with heavy rain and severe wx chances. What can you do? That 103 in St. Louis on Fri was awful. STL Airport got to 101 and broke the daily high temp record for the day. Keep that garbage away from our area please. I'm not giving up on a hotter pattern developing but right now, I don't see that happening in early July. We may need to watch the tropics around the 4th of July weekend trying to muck up the forecast also.

[Bgoney]

Agree, if we can hold off development until after noon things will get real interesting for 71 and east of there.

Strong signals for significant rains towards the end of the week and weekend throughout midwest and OV. MCS season looks to be in full swing , finally , with multiple clusters showing up in these regions late week and beyond

I know Tim and I have been going with a hotter and drier July and August. July currently looks to start off the same way June ends. Would love to be wrong about the heat so the longer this pattern goes, the better off we're going to be in that dept. However, at the same time, we pay the price with heavy rain and severe wx chances. What can you do? That 103 in St. Louis on Fri was awful. STL Airport got to 101 and broke the daily high temp record for the day. Keep that garbage away from our area please. I'm not giving up on a hotter pattern developing but right now, I don't see that happening in early July. We may need to watch the tropics around the 4th of July weekend trying to muck up the forecast also.

Yea i just don't see any sustained heat for first half of July. The heat ridge looks to be in the NW and coastal Canada (-EPO)for the majority of the rest of June and July. NW flow aloft dominates with brief heat periods

[tron777]

Yea i just don't see any sustained heat for first half of July. The heat ridge looks to be in the NW and coastal Canada (-EPO)for the majority of the rest of June and July. NW flow aloft dominates with brief heat periods

I totally agree with this. In addition, the MJO also keeps coming out of the CoD, then going into either Phase 1 or 2 (sometimes a tour thru both) then right back into the neutral circle. Until it re-emerges into a warmer phase, this pattern might be harder then I thought to break.

[tron777]

SPC Mesoanalysis check: It's going to be a close call for the Metro, but the sun is popping out now and the visible sat pic confirms we should see a little heating take place prior to the lunch hour and early afternoon period when storms are expected to begin popping. We already have some good CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg across the region. LI's are around -5. Bulk shear values are around 30 knots, so marginal for organized severe wx. But the helicity is decent for the SE counties and the super cell comp index is showing up currently around 6 for most of us with an 8 coming in over the southern and eastern half KY. LCL Heights are lowing along and SE of I-71 so that's a good sign that you'd like to see for storms, and also lapse rates are beginning to slowly build. Would like to see that go up for some good hailers but for now, lapse rates are only around 6.0C Would like that around 7.5 or 8 if possible, we'll see.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and some wonderful posts by all. Will be interesting this afternoon and though it looks to be a more heavy rain event in a short time we can not rule out a few storms that get near severe status. The good thing is the storms should be progressive which can lead to some strong winds. Tues-Thurs look wonderful and then after that I am amazed by the amount of rainfall some of the models are showing. If even half of that pans out then I agree it will take sometime to get a heat wave and would love that but still not throwing that out yet but its got my attention. Tons of rainfall in Greenville,SC as well and they are way above normal once again this year but nothing like last year. Nice to be busy weather wise this time of year and will head back to SC this Saturday but only gone for a week.

[Bgoney]

Looks like the front is slicing through Indy atm

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! Safe travels my friend due to the heavy rains we've been seeing across parts of the country and the havoc they can cause for motorists. I am sure most of you have heard about the tragedy on I-65 in Alabama the other day when all of those kids were killed in that horrific accident. Hydro planning and heavy rainfall / poor vis can just lead to a bad mix if "the other guy" isn't careful.

Anyway... 78 as of the 9am reading at CVG, and I'm at 80 here as of this post. Dews are near 70 so plenty of juice for storms. Question is will the better shear be by us and there for the SE Crew or do we get a little bit of strong to severe action as storms start to fire? A close call as I mentioned earlier.

For the long term range Tim... just when things look to be heading in our direction for the longer term, when we get closer, the reality of it is, we're still in the same pattern. Things have not changed at all and I'm with Bgoney for the first half of July... it is not going to change anytime soon. After mid month, we'll see. That's a long ways out. But for the next few weeks, our call isn't happening.

[cloudy72]

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
938 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY SCHEDULED TODAY FOR THE AREA NEAR
MILAN IN RIPLEY COUNTY INDIANA...

The National Weather Service office in Wilmington OH will conduct
a storm survey today for the area near Milan in Ripley County,
Indiana. The survey is in relation to the severe thunderstorms
that moved through the area on Friday, June 18, 2021.

A final assessment including results of the survey are expected
to be completed and transmitted via a Public Information
Statement later this evening.

The storm survey information will also be available on our
website at http://www.weather.gov/iln

[tron777]

A few little t-showers starting to form near Eric's hood.

[Bgoney]

I think the front is coming in a little later than modeled, not much , but enough for things to keep destabilizing longer

[tron777]

Kind of an interesting temp contrast too setting up. As BG alluded to, temps behind the front are dropping. Low to mid 70s in Central IN while we have the low 80s currently here ahead of the front. CAPE is still good, LI's etc. but the lack of good shear is really the only thing that I would like to see become a little greater.

[tpweather]

Timing is key this afternoon. When the front comes through the winds switch to the west but dew points remain rather high but once they switch to the northwest then those dew points quickly fall. Can see streaks of moisture heading this way quickly while the front heads this way. Usually in the summer the fronts come through slower but this case is a little interesting as the push of cool air is pretty intense for this time of year. On Tuesday do we stay in the 60's and that is rare when you have sunshine this time of year. I know some folks south of here can use some rain but I am fine here if the rain misses me.

[tron777]

After the 4" we got here when I was gone, my hood is good until Friday for rain also.

[tpweather]

Same here Les.

[tron777]

The current look from the 12Z GFS continues to show some high rain chances for Fri - next weekend.

[tron777]

Tues - Thurs should be dry but after that from Friday thru the foreseeable future to be completely honest, I'd have to throw in a chance for t-storms each and every day. Last Euro run supports this. The 12Z GFS run does as well. 0Z Ensembles (GEFS, EPS) both continue to paint above avg rainfall for us for the next 2 weeks at least.

[tron777]

A few showers / t-showers out there scattered about but nothing crazy or anything attm. So far the SE of I-71 call is looking good.

[tpweather]

Les some of the summers I have been looking at usually had the rainfall almost stop on a dime in mid-late June. If this above normal rainfall continues through early July it will be hard to have a longer term heat wave though we know hot days will still appear here and there throughout the summer but no to the extent I thought may happen. Going to give another 2 weeks to see if we get that abrupt end to the steady rainfall. Having near or above normal rainfall in July will usually keep us near normal in temps unless we get one big rainfall and the rest of the month is dry.

[tron777]

T-storm Watch in effect until 8pm EDT for Adams Co. No other AV counties are in the watch box area.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0299.html

Also... an MD has been issued for a possible watch (that maybe issued later) for Central, Southern, and Eastern KY - All south of our CWA.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1047.html

[tron777]

Les some of the summers I have been looking at usually had the rainfall almost stop on a dime in mid-late June. If this above normal rainfall continues through early July it will be hard to have a longer term heat wave though we know hot days will still appear here and there throughout the summer but no to the extent I thought may happen. Going to give another 2 weeks to see if we get that abrupt end to the steady rainfall. Having near or above normal rainfall in July will usually keep us near normal in temps unless we get one big rainfall and the rest of the month is dry.

I agree Tim... We absolutely should give it a couple of weeks to see how things look for mid month and beyond. I am concerned attm for localized flash flooding events continuing as long as this pattern continues. So Fri thru next weekend and really everyday next week and into the Big 4th of July Weekend, all look to have daily chances for t-storms. Not good for those who have get togethers and fireworks shows, but it is what it is. Hopefully we can get lucky as we get closer. For now... it's hard not to go with the wetter look. Rain begets rain just like drought begets drought as the saying goes.

[Sargent51]

3/4 of an inch of rain in about 35 minutes in Morrow/Maineville area. no wind, no thunder...just a really hard rain.

[Bgoney]

Heavy rain in Indian Hill with a few rumbles of thunder

[Bgoney]

That was quick , its done. Back to work

[tron777]

So far so good... everything has been virtually along and / or SE of I-71. 0.00" so far here. But I kind of expected it. I had 83 earlier. Down to 77 now with the frontal passage. The lower dews are still back across the NW 1/2 of Indiana so it'll be a while before we start to feel better here.

[tron777]

12Z Euro this afternoon has the rain chances that the GFS has down the road, however, QPF amounts are way way lower once again. The Euro has been struggling with regards to the convection all season long so far, so why stop now. My forecast in the medium and longer term is definitely going to be the GFS solution.