August 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Good Afternoon and made it to Wisconsin. Beautiful with clouds and sun along with a nice breeze. Feels like early fall. Getting rid of the humidity is so key. Left this morning and ran into some thunder and lightning near Indy with some rainfall but that lasted maybe 30 minutes.

I'm jealous Tim! I checked the forecast for your area up there and you've got a fall like day coming up on Tues. Highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s! You won't see the 80s until Thurs or Fri of next week.

Les it is so nice up here and I could spend every summer and winter here lol. Heading to Ithaca,Ny on Wednesday so it looks nice there as well. Will head back home on Friday and will no be happy with the humidity. Seems the Euro model is just not handling the precip while the gfs is out to lunch and no way a model can be that bad

I think the models have been struggling period. The GFS by far has been and continues to be the worst. No doubt about it. Bottle up some of that A/C please and bring it back here. Thanks!

[tron777]

Oh by the way,.... has anyone noticed those dews dropping as drier air is mixing down? That is probably why we made a run at 90 today. We were maxed out at 75 after the fizzle fest this morning. Dew at CVG now is down to 68 as of the 5pm reading. That isn't good for t-storm development.

EDIT: That 30 knot bulk shear we had is leaving the area too. Another limiting factor. Then you count all of the various "Domes" across the area and that's 3 strikes. You're out!

[tpweather]

Good thing is some first signs of winter are starting to show up in northern Alaska. Barrow has snow in their forecast for later in the week. Nothing new as mid-late August they tend to start seeing these signs of winter but usually not until mid-September when the snow will start to add up. Btw Juneau is getting hit with tons of rainfall and Fairbanks is cooler than most of the summer with some rain as well

[tron777]

Good thing is some first signs of winter are starting to show up in northern Alaska. Barrow has snow in their forecast for later in the week. Nothing new as mid-late August they tend to start seeing these signs of winter but usually not until mid-September when the snow will start to add up. Btw Juneau is getting hit with tons of rainfall and Fairbanks is cooler than most of the summer with some rain as well

Barrow is down to 19 hours and 40 mins of daylight today. Currently, they are losing on avg about 13 mins of daylight per day. That will only increase later on in the fall. By the end of August they are down to 16 hours and 1 min.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG and DAY both 89'ed and CMH 87 today.

[MVWxObserver]

I'm so sorry to bug you guys....however, any opinions would be greatly appreciated
Thinking about heading to Kings Island this evening (Mason, OH) and wondering about storm likelihood.
Naturally, radar shows storms in the 7pm range, but here in Hamilton county I've seen those fall apart time and time again.
I understand Mother Nature does what she does, haha, just looking for professional opinions
Thanks to anyone who can chime in!

Hi snwyowl,

I hope that you had a great time at Kings Island!

Speaking of KI, this afternoon on AntennaTV an episode of "The Partridge Family" that was titled "I Left My Heart in Cincinnati" featured the cast at that amusement park that was aired on 1/19/73. I turned 10 that Jan. Former Redleg and HOF'er Johnny Bench starred in a cameo appearance as a poolside waiter at a Kings Island hotel where the Partridges stayed and there were scenes of the Racer roller coaster, the Monster, Eiffel Tower, the Skylift, antique cars ride, etc. Also some Hanna Barbera characters among the visitors. Took me back to childhood memories!

Its cool that both "The Partridge Family" and "The Brady Bunch" both featured episodes at KI!

[Trevor]

I believe the SPC needs to pull the slight risk back west and north for tomorrow to cover more of us. I also think the tornado probs need to be bumped up to 5%. Could be some nice supercells tomorrow across the region based on modeling.

[Trevor]

As always, we need to see how much morning convection and debris clouds will be present which may modify the threat downward if it’s extensive.

[tron777]

Good morning all! We got lucky and caught a downpour with the front last evening. Totals from my hood:

CVG - 0.16"
Me - 0.09'
Boone Co mesonet - 0.05"

Hopefully we can all do much better later on tonight and Monday. As Trev said it depends on what happens in the morning. Personally, I'd love to get hit with an MCS producing heavy rainfall. Sure, it messes with the severe threat in the afternoon and evening but the rainfall is sorely needed vs severe wx IMO. We'll see though. Models have been struggling as we all know. Today, we should heat up into that 87-89 degree range again.

[tron777]

12Z HRRR pretty much misses us to the SW for the late overnight into Mon morning round. Then as the surface low tracks across SKY, the worst of the storms remain well south of us. However, scattered storms form just to the N / NE of Cincinnati so there is a bit of a gap once again showing up for some of us on this forum. This round occurs by late morning into the midday hours. Then for the late afternoon into the evening period, a broken line of scattered storms moves thru in association with the cold front.

12Z NAM shows convection for the Cincy Metro area Monday morning with a weakening line moving in around the midday to early afternoon period. Then isolated showers with the cold front overnight Monday.

In my opinion, this is another messy set up and I am not gung ho on severe wx or very widespread soaking rainfall. I think heavy rain and severe wx chances will be isolated to scattered with some folks getting lucky and a lot of us remaining on the lighter side with rainfall totals. My forecasted range will be 0.25" to 1.5" The over 1" club will be isolated to scattered in nature with the vast majority of locations getting into the 1/2" and below club.

My thoughts may differ from others but I am going with persistence, and another messy set up where rain and / or clouds messes everything up. Why? Bad timing just like always. It's the same thing we've seen all summer long IMO. I read the overnight AFD from the boys and they seem pretty excited about the heavy rain chances especially for folks S of I-70. We shall see as always how things unfold.

[tron777]

My medium to long range thoughts:

After tomorrow's system passes, we get a September like feel going for a few days across the region. The 70s for all areas Tuesday with lows in the 50s for most folks Wed morning. 70s to perhaps 80 degrees in KY for Wed with one more night in the 50s to the lower 60s before a warming trend begins. We should get a weak front that passes Thurs, mainly to our NE. Cannot rule out a shower for our NE Forecast Area (Columbus zone). Low to mid 80s Thurs, mid 80s Fri. Then I believe the Upper 80s to around 90 for Sat and 90+ possible Sunday and into the following week. We should see a few days in the lower 90s. The heat lasts from around 8/19 thru around 8/24 or so. Then we are back into our usual +PNA pattern again.

We also need to watch the tropics to see how they impact the longer term. It's been dead but signs are that we could see something trying to brew in the Gulf towards the last week of the month. This could cause the heat to stick around a big longer then I have indicated here, OR the other possibility is that it hooks up with an incoming trough and we get a blast of cooler air as the month winds down. I am pretty confident in one more spell of heat (U80s to L90s) for a time but how long it lasts remains to be seen due to the tropics.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les. Low 60's and light rain here.

[tron777]

Great Post Les. Low 60's and light rain here.

Wow! Sounds like a pot of chili day in Wisc. Sunny and in the low 80s already here. Dew is better at 60, but that will rise later on. Front has stalled out over North Central KY and will wash out.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les. Low 60's and light rain here.

Wow! Sounds like a pot of chili day in Wisc. Sunny and in the low 80s already here. Dew is better at 60, but that will rise later on. Front has stalled out over North Central KY and will wash out.

No doubt Les and on Monday expecting highs in the low 60's with winds 10-15 and gusts over 20. May feel like the mid-upper 40's at times.

[tron777]

Great Post Les. Low 60's and light rain here.

Wow! Sounds like a pot of chili day in Wisc. Sunny and in the low 80s already here. Dew is better at 60, but that will rise later on. Front has stalled out over North Central KY and will wash out.

No doubt Les and on Monday expecting highs in the low 60's with winds 10-15 and gusts over 20. May feel like the mid-upper 40's at times.

Sign me up!

[tron777]

12Z GFS has a weakening area of rain approaching tomorrow morning. Showers really occur off and on for most of the day so no severe wx at all really to speak of. 12Z Euro has mod to heavy rain in the morning, a break then scattered action with the front late afternoon and evening.

[Bgoney]

12Z GFS has a weakening area of rain approaching tomorrow morning. Showers really occur off and on for most of the day so no severe wx at all really to speak of. 12Z Euro has mod to heavy rain in the morning, a break then scattered action with the front late afternoon and evening.

Your forecast from this morning has been the way to go , with nothing from the 12z runs to think otherwise. Certainly not expecting anything beneficial out this way

[MVWxObserver]

The 2.30" that my folks and I were blessed to have this past Wed night will hold us for quite a while.

So at least for whatever liquid gold transpires for tonight and Mon I'll be rooting for you guys and gals south of I-70 as you need it a lot more than up my way.

Currently 81 here in G'ville.

[tpweather]

67 degrees here in Wausau. Got about .17 at the house which is just west of downtown Wausau. Airport is several miles away and got only .01. Everything is lush up here and plan on moving some wood here on Tuesday when it dries out as they had a tree struck by lightning last week.

[MVWxObserver]

67 degrees here in Wausau. Got about .17 at the house which is just west of downtown Wausau. Airport is several miles away and got only .01. Everything is lush up here and plan on moving some wood here on Tuesday when it dries out as they had a tree struck by lightning last week.

Hi Tim,

That's neat that your son and family has a rain gauge, too.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has a weakening area of rain approaching tomorrow morning. Showers really occur off and on for most of the day so no severe wx at all really to speak of. 12Z Euro has mod to heavy rain in the morning, a break then scattered action with the front late afternoon and evening.

Your forecast from this morning has been the way to go , with nothing from the 12z runs to think otherwise. Certainly not expecting anything beneficial out this way

Thanks! It looks like the same ole, same ole. Best chances in our Western counties for heavier rains since things will be weakening as they move into our forecast area. Then as you said, the further East you go, the drier you become. It's been the story of our summer as you well know. Maybe just this one time, we'll be pleasantly surprised!!! Or maybe not? But seriously folks... Just trying to change things up so we get a different outcome!

I sure hope everyone can cash in tomorrow otherwise, it's a dry and eventually hot road ahead by next weekend.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and hoping everyone gets in on the rainfall. Expecting between 1 - 1 1/2 by Monday evening here in Wausau. By the end of the week it looks like we will be heading to a period of above normal temps. Once again I believe the models will come down some on temps over the next 3-5 days as models imo are once again just to hot. So many areas in most directions Cvg that have had plenty of rainfall over the past 30-40 days. Saying that its going to be humid so again do you want 94 and dew point of 64 or 91 and dew point of 71. My guess between August 20-27 we see 1-2 days of 90 degrees and my guess the highest temp will be 92.

[MVWxObserver]

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[Bgoney]

Forecast from yesterday still looking good imo. Weakening cluster of showers moving in mid morning to early afternoon. Mostly light to moderate but a few isolated heavier spots. Then late day/evening isolated development. Les’s amounts apply(unless they’ve changed) trace amounts to isolated 1.00”+ , you know the deal

[tron777]

Good morning all and nope... nothing has changed from me. I looked at the radar loop and it's just as we feared. I just hope that area of rain associated with the warm front towards the LOU area can make it far enough to the north and east to benefit us and esp our Eastern counties, We'll have to wait and see but as Bgoney said yeah... you know the deal.

This is basically it for rainfall for the next week and change. I cannot rule out an isolated shower tomorrow afternoon with the upper trough passing through but that's going to be very isolated (coverage and size of showers). Then we get the fall vibe going briefly before summer comes back by this weekend. I like Tim's call of 92 being the max temp. I agree... I like the upper 80s Sat, 90 Sun and the low 90s Mon thru at least Wed of next week. We can iron out the timing of when the heat ends once we get closer. As I said in my long range post yesterday, the tropics may perk up a bit too in the coming weeks so we need to factor that in also should it occur.