August 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Screw-zone watch has been issued for parts of CVGland. Stay tuned for updates

I was afraid of that...

[young pup]

Looks to my untrained eye that the bulk of the rain is going to miss Day,Cmh, and CVG. It looks to be pushing n/e???? Or is my vision bad?

[Bgoney]

Looks to my untrained eye that the bulk of the rain is going to miss Day,Cmh, and CVG. It looks to be pushing n/e???? Or is my vision bad?

myanimation 2.gif

Eric is in a good spot

[Bgoney]

Screw-zone watch has been issued for parts of CVGland. Stay tuned for updates

I was afraid of that...

80% chance an upgrade to warning status here at the BGF Center by closing hour (9 pm) for parts of CVGland

[MVWxObserver]

I feel so bad for you guys and gals down that way. Up here its like a train switch yard. Sure as heck wish I could pipeline you some.

ILN may have to bump that Flood Watch northward.

[tron777]

Screw-zone watch has been issued for parts of CVGland. Stay tuned for updates

I was afraid of that...

80% chance an upgrade to warning status here at the BGF Center by closing hour (9 pm) for parts of CVGland

Totally agree.... You could probably go ahead and issue it now LOL

[young pup]

Looks to my untrained eye that the bulk of the rain is going to miss Day,Cmh, and CVG. It looks to be pushing n/e???? Or is my vision bad?

myanimation 2.gif



Eric is in a good spot

Yes, he is that is for sure.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and usually don't blame folks for the weather but this time I must blame Bgoney and his dome lol. A whopping .10 since Wednesday morning as I thought the decimal would be to the right of the 1. Looks like the split we talked about expanded even more later on Wednesday. The air behind this system is not that cool so expect temps to head towards normal very quickly. We do have a stronger front early next week and that one looks to have somewhat cooler air but nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year. Can we get some rain with that system This time I thought with the models edging up on rain totals nearer the even meant we had a better shot of getting a decent rain but mother nature once again said no so fast my friend.

[Bgoney]

Good Morning and usually don't blame folks for the weather but this time I must blame Bgoney and his dome lol. A whopping .10 since Wednesday morning as I thought the decimal would be to the right of the 1. Looks like the split we talked about expanded even more later on Wednesday. The air behind this system is not that cool so expect temps to head towards normal very quickly. We do have a stronger front early next week and that one looks to have somewhat cooler air but nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year. Can we get some rain with that system This time I thought with the models edging up on rain totals nearer the even meant we had a better shot of getting a decent rain but mother nature once again said no so fast my friend.

The SZW was well warranted for CVGLAND. Turns out it was an EF3 screw-zone that moved through, ILN plans to send out a team to investigate later today.

Never did think wide spread heavy amounts were in store, just didn’t like the parameters , even though some modeling suggested better coverage. No heavy thunderstorms were going to happen and didn’t think regular isolated showers were going to be a problem flood-wise(CVG)

[tron777]

Good morning guys! I also did not like the gap in between precip areas that we saw on some of the guidance for the last couple of days. That was the story and we only saw scattered stuff fire up in between. Amounts ranged from very little to over 2" in a few locations. The areal FFW was definitely not warranted and FF Warnings or Flood Advisories were sufficient in those areas.

Final totals:

CVG - 0.05"
Me - 0.21" (Most of that was from that Noon downpour yesterday)
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.13"

We'll try it again Fri night and Saturday and again Sunday night and Monday. We are outlooked for a slight risk already on Saturday for severe wx but it's another muddy set up. We never do rain, severe wx, or snow easy around here!

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and I believe the only reason a ffw was issued is because some of the thunderstorms were throwing down very heavy amounts in a short period well to the west. I believe it was damn if I do and damn if I don't situation.

Just looking at the stats for the year and this is at CVG. We are about 1.5 degrees above normal which we have put a big dent into the above normal temps we saw in the winter. Precip total is 1/2 inch above normal for the year.

[tpweather]

The extended with the gfs and talking 10 days out and you start to see the model show a normal late August with signs of tropical systems in the GOM and really nice cold front in southern Canada . Will this be the outcome and probably not but the models do go back to the mean especially longer term.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and I believe the only reason a ffw was issued is because some of the thunderstorms were throwing down very heavy amounts in a short period well to the west. I believe it was damn if I do and damn if I don't situation.

Just looking at the stats for the year and this is at CVG. We are about 1.5 degrees above normal which we have put a big dent into the above normal temps we saw in the winter. Precip total is 1/2 inch above normal for the year.

I just think that the trends and the persistence of bad timing and seeing gaps in precip shields, etc. are all factors that have plagued the region in some way, shape or form, all summer long. Sometimes the rain comes at us and falls apart. Sometimes, nothing happens. On rare occasions something does happen but it is usually localized so only a handful of folks benefit and others are left high and dry. For folks that live out Bgoney's way, we know that region has had just awful luck and every negative factor for rainfall has occurred. Other areas, you can't turn the faucet off! It is easy for me to sit here and be critical sometimes of NWS ILN since I don't get paid to do the tough job that they have to do day in and day out. I'm sure my mindset would be different if I was a Met and worked in that office. I honestly wouldn't want their job LOL If I make a mistake no big deal. If they do, sure sometimes it isn't a big deal, but it can be in terms of flash flooding and severe wx, etc. so they errored on the side of caution.

[cloudy72]

0.07” here lol

[tron777]

The extended with the gfs and talking 10 days out and you start to see the model show a normal late August with signs of tropical systems in the GOM and really nice cold front in southern Canada . Will this be the outcome and probably not but the models do go back to the mean especially longer term.

The GFS finally backed off on the heat and actually shows deep enough troughs to give us a night or two in the 50s in the extended range! It went from one extreme to the other in my mind. Not saying a night in the 50s is not possible in August, it most certainly is, but you need a dry airmass to accomplish that along with light wind and clear skies. So I do question lows that cool in the extended considering how humid we have been as of late.

[young pup]

Depending on which rain gauge I want to go by. Total rain .50 to .70 including the .20 from earlier yesterday.

[tpweather]

The extended with the gfs and talking 10 days out and you start to see the model show a normal late August with signs of tropical systems in the GOM and really nice cold front in southern Canada . Will this be the outcome and probably not but the models do go back to the mean especially longer term.

The GFS finally backed off on the heat and actually shows deep enough troughs to give us a night or two in the 50s in the extended range! It went from one extreme to the other in my mind. Not saying a night in the 50s is not possible in August, it most certainly is, but you need a dry airmass to accomplish that along with light wind and clear skies. So I do question lows that cool in the extended considering how humid we have been as of late.

I agree Les and 50's in late August happens quite often has the average low by the end of the month is around 63. The dog days of summer will be over on Friday. That is one date I look at every year and then I can start looking towards the Autumn season which I love.

[tpweather]

The extended with the gfs and talking 10 days out and you start to see the model show a normal late August with signs of tropical systems in the GOM and really nice cold front in southern Canada . Will this be the outcome and probably not but the models do go back to the mean especially longer term.

The GFS finally backed off on the heat and actually shows deep enough troughs to give us a night or two in the 50s in the extended range! It went from one extreme to the other in my mind. Not saying a night in the 50s is not possible in August, it most certainly is, but you need a dry airmass to accomplish that along with light wind and clear skies. So I do question lows that cool in the extended considering how humid we have been as of late.

I agree Les and 50's in late August happens quite often as the average low by the end of the month is around 63. The dog days of summer will be over on Friday. That is one date I look at every year and then I can start looking towards the Autumn season which I love.

[tron777]

No doubt Tim... no doubt! I love lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s. That is ideal comfort weather. Then when that turns into highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s you break out those hoodies and have bon fires in the evenings! Yes please!

[tpweather]

Still have some light rain/drizzle falling and all the rain that has fallen lol will soak into the ground. Was out in the yard yesterday and still no cracks in the ground and some spots still wet on top. Unless we have a 2-3 week stretch of hot and dry weather the lawn should be okay this year. Have a project in the fall on one side of the lawn so hopefully i see a couple of dry days in later Sept or early Oct

[tron777]

My lawn is a little brown still in a few areas where the sun bakes it. Shaded areas are still lush and green. I could use an inch of rain to be quite honest. Then I could say what you said Tim about going 2-3 weeks of dry weather.

[tron777]

As you would expect, temps today will be held down due to the clouds on the backside of this system. We will see some sun breaks this afternoon with CU as well. Temps should be held down into the upper 70s to lower 80s range across the region. Mid to upper 80s Fri - Sunday are expected. Then we are back down into the U70s to L80s range for the first half of next week. Not bad temp wise for Aug! 3 normal days in there, the rest are below normal. We still have an avg high of 86 at CVG this time of year. That will peak within the week and then our averages will slowly begin dropping.

[tron777]

[Wxlrnr]

I can't believe it, the drizzle stopped, and I went out to check my rain guage. Including the 0.1 from the quick shower yesterday morning, I have 0.65 inches in it. We have been doing well here, my grass is growing like crazy and everything is green and lush.

[tron777]

12Z NAM is not impressive whatsoever with the Fri night thru Sat time period. We gets the old Splitsville yet again with only isolated convection on Sat. Not much going on with this run. The 12Z GFS has better coverage but amounts are definitely on the light side. hope some of this data changes when we get closer but for now, it doesn't look good to me for widespread rainfall. Looking like more of the same old song and dance IMO.