West Pac Typhoon Season Discussion

[tron777]

97W currently has a high chance of development.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

[tron777]

95W has a high chance to develop near the Philippines at this time.

[tron777]

We now have TC Talim moving towards the Korean Penn. and SE Asia. This one should make it into a typhoon before making landfall next week.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp0423.gif

[tron777]

Typhoon Doksuri is expected to track in between the Philippines and Taiwan eventually slamming intro mainland China later this week.

[tron777]

No changes to the above with Typhoon Doksuri. In addition, we now have invest 91W that has a high chance to develop and this one is several hundred miles behind Doksuri.

[tron777]

Typhoon Khanun is very powerful on satellite this morning. Current expected track - A slow mover:

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp0623.gif

[tron777]

Typhoon Khanun is still out there! This one is about ready to make a hard right turn to the NE and recurve off the coast of Japan. That likely means our trough continues thru at least mid August if not longer. Wave 93W has a low chance of development at this time.

[tron777]

Khanun has now weakened into a TS and it is moving due N and will cross Southern Japan today and back over water briefly before working into SE Asia next week as a TS or TD . Then we can say good-bye to that system.

[tron777]

TS Khanun continues to weaken and it's moisture will be impacting the Eastern Korean Penn. as well as mainland China in a few days. Wave 95W now has a medium chance of development at this time.

[tron777]

TS Khanun continues to slowly move north and will spread rain and wind to the Korean Penn and mainland china in the coming days. Next system to keep an eye on is TS Lan. This one is expected to become a typhoon with the latest track moving it NW and potentially impacting Tokyo, Japan. That could make some news headlines down the road.

[tron777]

Typhoon Lan has a well defined eye on satellite today. It's forecast to strike Japan Sunday or Monday well to the West of Tokyo so that is some better news there.


https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp0723.gif

[tron777]

Remember Dora that helped to cause the terrible fires on the Island of Maui? Well it crossed over into the West Pac so we will now be tracking it here. Dora is currently a TS with winds of 63 mph moving West at 12. She is expected to remain a TS and eventually weaken turning more to the north passing between Wake and Midway Islands.

Typhoon Lan has winds of 81 mph at this time. This storm continues to have Japan in its sights potentially impacting the city of Kyoto. Then it re-emerges into the Sea of Japan as a TS turning to the north and then NE bringing heavy rains and wind to the Western Side of the Japanese Islands.

[tron777]

TS Lan continues to weaken in the Sea of Japan as it heads NE. In a couple more days we can say good=bye to this one after Lan battered the Central Japanese Islands as a typhoon several days ago. No other systems of note are ongoing at this time.

[tron777]

90W has a high chance of development while 91W has a low chance.

[tron777]

91W now has a high chance for development. 90W is now a depression - TD 08 W. This one is likely to become a TS soo0n and eventually a typhoon in the days to come. Movement will be slow to the N but it eventually looks to pick up some forward speed as well as a turn to the NW. Over the next week and change, we shall see if Japan gets another hit or not.

[tron777]

TD 8W is still forecast to become a TS but remain a TS instead of becoming a typhoon as earlier forecast. The jury is out if Japan gets impacted or not.

We also have a new TS - TS 09W which is expected to eventually become a typhoon and move slowly off of the N Philippine Islands. Eventually, it will move north and away from the Philippines but it'll take probably 3-5 days for it to do so.

[tron777]

TS 09W is now Typhoon Saola. After it moves away from the Philippines (eventually) the southern end of Taiwan looks to be next followed by mainland China over the next week and change.

TD 8W is now TS Damrey. Not sure if this one will become a typhoon, but it is now expected to get close to Japan but then recurve to the NE. I would not use the recurving typhoon rule in this case since this is not a strong system.

Finally, a new wave 93W has a low chance of development. 93W is kind of in between the above mentioned storms.

[tron777]

Typhoon Saola continues to hang out near the Philippines, but once it moves away, it still looks to clip the southern end of Taiwan, then eventually impact mainland China over the next week.

TS Damrey may briefly become a typhoon, but it still looks to recurve to the NE before impacting Japan. I still would not use the recurving typhoon rule in this case since this is not a strong system.

93W now has a medium chance of development.

[tron777]

Two changes to report. TS Damrey is not expected to recurve anymore. It is now expected to pass in between Taiwan and Japan potentially making a landfall near Shanghai, China over the next week or so. The other change is 93 W now has a high chance of developing. I believe that it will. It is looking good on satellite this morning. No change to Typhoon Saola at this time. It maybe an issue for not only for the S end of Taiwan but also down the road for Hong Kong.

[tron777]

Saola is now a super typhoon (comparable to a Cat 5) with winds of 155 mph. It should max out at 160 mph per JWTC's forecast. Updated track map is below.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp0923.gif

93W is now TS Haikui with winds of 58 mph. This one is also expected to become a typhoon and potentially move towards China over the next week. Track map is below:

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1023.gif

Finally, a new wave 94W has a medium chance of development.

[tron777]

Super Typhoon Saola has winds of 155 mph this morning. Forecast track has it getting close to Hong Kong in the next 3-5 days and then slowing down and potentially stalling for a bit off the Coast while it weakens into a TS. If this scenario plays out, a lot of rain, wind, and waves will batter that region.

TS Haikui has winds of 52 mph. It is expected to become a typhoon and move WNW and potentially impact Shanghai down the road.

Finally, 94W is now TS 11W. This one currently is expected to remain a TS and move N then turning more NW to potentially impact the S Japanese Islands down the road as a weak TS.

[tron777]

The only change in the West Pac to report is that TS 11W now has a name. It is TS Kirgoi. Still expected to remain a TS and potentially track across the S Japanese islands down the road.

[tron777]

Saola has weakened back down to a typhoon now. This one is now expected to scrap the Chinese Coast (including Hong Kong) then turn more W and SW to parallel the coast for a bit then eventually weakening to a TS and impacting the Island of Hainan.

Haikui is now a typhoon and is expected to impact Taiwan and then mainland China. Then we can say good-bye to that one.

TS Kirgoi is still expected to remain a TS and impact S Japan. If it holds on long enough, without being ripped apart by the Japanese Mountains, then whatever is left of it will impact the Shanghai region of China.

[tron777]

TS Saola is impacting the Chinese coast now. Typhoon Haikui is hitting Taiwan now then eventually China. TD Kirgoi is about ready to sie before hitting Japan.

We also have more waves... 96W has a low chance and 98W has a chance to develop as a subtropical storm.

[tron777]

Only one noteworthy system in the West Pac: The rest mentioned in the above post re in their decaying stages.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1223.gif