July 2023 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good Morning and back from Wausau,Wi. I see they got a nice thunderstorm last night that ended up over 1.3 inches of rainfall. Not surprising as they hit 90 degrees yesterday. Of course the rest of the week temps near normal in the 70's an low 80's. I will have some thoughts on the local weather later today but first must mow the grass.

[MVWxObserver]

Good Morning and back from Wausau,Wi. I see they got a nice thunderstorm last night that ended up over 1.3 inches of rainfall. Not surprising as they hit 90 degrees yesterday. Of course the rest of the week temps near normal in the 70's an low 80's. I will have some thoughts on the local weather later today but first must mow the grass.

Wausau is only an hour and 34 minutes from Appleton where a couple of friends who are former high school teachers of mine from Cincy days reside.

[MVWxObserver]

Wed and Thurs ...

[MVWxObserver]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
359 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060-070-071-077>079-081-
120900-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Preble-Butler-Warren-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Adams-
359 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South
Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

One or more rounds of storms will be possible late Wednesday night
into the day on Thursday. Locally heavy rain and flooding will be the
primary threat, although a strong or severe storm cannot be ruled
out.

$$

[tron777]

Welcome home Tim! It'll be fun tracking snow over the winter time when you're there. For now, here is BG:

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and not a bad day at all as the humidity is in check. No doubt we will see an increase over the next few days but nothing excessive by any means and really for this time of year wonderful. Can we get some rainfall in this pattern and it seems very similar to the past few weeks and we know some folks get hit hard while others very little. Rain chances are probably higher than normal over the next 5 days but once again some folks will most likely miss out. I know my lawn is still in great shape but still would like to see 1-2 inches over the next 5 days.

[tron777]

Same here Tim! Another 3/4" like I got last go around would be perfect with these next couple of systems! Really pulling too for our folks out East like Bgoney, for example who really has been getting the shaft post 5/7.

[tron777]

BG also illustrates your post nicely on the humidity Tim!

[tron777]

The timing of these next few systems is bad on the 12Z GFS for heavy rain lovers. A weakening complex for Thurs morning then another Sat morning. Anything on Friday stays well SW of our area. Then a couple more chances early next week. Sort of fits the theme of the rainfall distribution as well as system timing the last few weeks.

[tpweather]

The timing of these next few systems is bad on the 12Z GFS for heavy rain lovers. A weakening complex for Thurs morning then another Sat morning. Anything on Friday stays well SW of our area. Then a couple more chances early next week. Sort of fits the theme of the rainfall distribution as well as system timing the last few weeks.

Les timing like we always say is key. Again models in a pattern like this will make last minute changes and that is because the atmosphere can change quickly. We always look at complexes and see where the higher dew points are located to see where a complex is more than likely to head towards. That is why so many of these MCS's will head east and dive south towards the moisture source.

[tron777]

I looked at the Euro Tim and the new 12Z run is similar. Looking at QPF for CVG, all systems produce 0.20" or less until we finally get nailed by an MCS Wed of next week. That is model fantasy land so right now who cares about that one. Point being... these next couple of systems, could easily behave as prior ones if current guidance is correct. It's hard to go against the trend until there isn't one.

[MVWxObserver]

Got to 85 in CVG and 86 in both DAY and CMH.

[tron777]

64 here this morning. Can we get 89'ed or 90 or do we fall short at 88? Stay tuned... Storm action now looks to hold off mainly until Thursday at this point.

[MVWxObserver]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
336 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

INZ058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ045-046-052>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088-130900-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Union OH-Delaware-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
336 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are expected during the daytime Thursday, with strong
to severe storms possible. Damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall
will be the primary threats with this activity. Although some hail
will also be possible.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Thursday.

$$

[MVWxObserver]

I find it odd that, that pocket of counties isn't under the HWO, too.

[tron777]

I still believe that the severe threat is low end and the better chances will be to our West / SW where the better heat, dews, CAPE is. We'll get some rain of course but it'll most likely be of the weakening variety. The only difference is this... Does the timing change? Do we get something in the afternoon or will it still be overnight into the morning hours like it has been? IMO, that timing is going to be the difference between severe and non-severe for the region.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and starting to see an increase in humidity. We have a MCS over the central plains but also a front in the northern Ohio Valley. When you both this time of year rain chances increase. What we have seen most of the summer is for fronts to travel further south and east than normal. This continues though we are starting to see where fronts only make it to the southern Ohio Valley or northern Tn Valley.

We usually like to see the dew points 70 or above for a better shot of rain but this morning many places northwest had dews in the mid-60's and no problem with the rain. So what does this mean for us and today no problems but can we hit 90 is the big question and knowing we are just south of the front today I believe we will be close so 88-90 seems like a good forecast.

Overnight and Thursday chances for rain go up and I believe a good deal of rain will be around but where is the key. Wish I knew and models sort of figure it out closer to time as the atmosphere reloads. The good thing is folks to the north and west who really have seen the worse of the short term drought is getting in on some nice rainfall the past two days. I drove through that area and again only going by what I saw from the expressway but it does not look like the crops are doing to bad and part of that is we have not had that extended period of heat.

So much better chance on Thursday and then we will have a front that sort of lingers nearby and we play it by ear each day. Some of the models do show a low pressure this weekend and if this develops getting a forecast correct will be somewhat easier.

[Trevor]

Saw this on FB and I know that it hits home for some on here

[tron777]

Love that Pic Trev.... freaking perfect!

[tron777]

Good Morning and starting to see an increase in humidity. We have a MCS over the central plains but also a front in the northern Ohio Valley. When you both this time of year rain chances increase. What we have seen most of the summer is for fronts to travel further south and east than normal. This continues though we are starting to see where fronts only make it to the southern Ohio Valley or northern Tn Valley.

We usually like to see the dew points 70 or above for a better shot of rain but this morning many places northwest had dews in the mid-60's and no problem with the rain. So what does this mean for us and today no problems but can we hit 90 is the big question and knowing we are just south of the front today I believe we will be close so 88-90 seems like a good forecast.

Overnight and Thursday chances for rain go up and I believe a good deal of rain will be around but where is the key. Wish I knew and models sort of figure it out closer to time as the atmosphere reloads. The good thing is folks to the north and west who really have seen the worse of the short term drought is getting in on some nice rainfall the past two days. I drove through that area and again only going by what I saw from the expressway but it does not look like the crops are doing to bad and part of that is we have not had that extended period of heat.

So much better chance on Thursday and then we will have a front that sort of lingers nearby and we play it by ear each day. Some of the models do show a low pressure this weekend and if this develops getting a forecast correct will be somewhat easier.

Wonderful post Tim! I think our thoughts are on the same page. It's all about timing. If we get the timing that we have been seeing then the call is easy. A weakening trend, with heavier rains West, lighter East. If we can get some heating going , then all bets are off. We shall see as usual.

[tpweather]

IMG_0303(1).jpg

IMG_0311(1).jpg

Good Morning and I try not to use this section for photos but I thought okay for 2 photos of where I may get to see some decent winter weather lol. About 1 acre to mow and 13 with trees.

[tron777]

That looks like a wonderful spot Tim! I'll bet you'll see a lot of wildlife, especially deer, with all the woods present. Love the flag pole too!

[tron777]

Already up to 80 at CVG as of 11am. Dew isn't bad 64 attm.

[tpweather]

Les you are correct about the deer. Went into part of the woods and saw one deer stand in good condition and another that was a bit shattered. Have a pond rather close to the house as well and a small river at the end of the property. I know for sure my son will never worry about having enough wood for a fireplace of fire pit.

[snowbo]

That looks like a wonderful spot Tim! I'll bet you'll see a lot of wildlife, especially deer, with all the woods present. Love the flag pole too!

I like the big concrete pad...perfect for when I visit with my little camper!