June 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

CVG reporting 0.13" with the first batch. Saw a couple reports of 1" diameter hail in Burlington KY.

There goes Les's vegetable garden

I'll be home Sunday to survey the damage lol

[MVWxObserver]

New Madison, OH in Darke County - half inch diameter hail reported.

Hi Mike,

I'm kind of surprised that hail report from New Madison hasn't shown up in the SPC storm reports.

Never mind as the reason could be half inch sized (mothball sized i.e.) doesn't meet severe criteria.

[Bgoney]

You'd think ILN would have picked a different day to change the picture tube on their radar other than the only day all year for severe weather

[tron777]

93 degrees in W Illinois

[Trevor]

ENH expanded to cover the remainder of the tri-state. 5% tornado probs added for the metro.

[cloudy72]

Looks like round 2 is initiating already up in northern Indiana near Lafayette. SPC meso-analysis showing 4500 J/kg CAPE across central Indiana now. Mercy sakes! Supercell composite near those storms is 12 and we have 45-50 kt shear right over us now. Its about to pop!

Precipitable water - looks like we have the highest around with about 1.7".

[Bgoney]

Severe threat has definitely shifted S/SW , more from Hillsboro, west and southwest to just north of Lou. Ingredients coming together quickly for AVland

[cloudy72]

KLAF - Lafayette IN currently 97 with a dewpoint of 73! 0.0

[dce]

KLAF - Lafayette IN currently 97 with a dewpoint of 73! 0.0

That reading seems a little suspect to me. Not saying it isn't correct, but I can't find any other stations in the region above the lower 90's.

[cloudy72]

KLAF - Lafayette IN currently 97 with a dewpoint of 73! 0.0

That reading seems a little suspect to me. Not saying it isn't correct, but I can't find any other stations in the region above the lower 90's.

Maybe a plane took off and fried the sensor!

[tron777]

96 now in SC Illinois. No storms here unfortunately.

[dce]

KLAF - Lafayette IN currently 97 with a dewpoint of 73! 0.0

That reading seems a little suspect to me. Not saying it isn't correct, but I can't find any other stations in the region above the lower 90's.

Maybe a plane took off and fried the sensor!

[tron777]

100 now! I'm officially in hell lol

[cloudy72]

Looks like a warning a county to your west Eric! Heads up!

[Trevor]

High to extreme levels of CAPE are sliding in as CIN from the earlier action begins to erode. Wowzers.

[Trevor]

STP is starting to rise as well. Damaging winds are of course the main threat, but we really need to watch things progress as the tornado threat is also increasing. Probably have a tornado watch issued for most within the next few hours.

[cloudy72]

60% chance of Severe watch....

mcd0996.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0996
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Areas affected...Central IN into Western OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 181937Z - 182100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Evolution of ongoing storms remains uncertain, but the
severe threat may increase through the afternoon. Watch issuance is
possible by 20Z.

DISCUSSION...An apparent elevated supercell has gradually evolved
from ongoing elevated convection across northern IN, with convection
increasing into northeast IN, and also further south into more of
central IN. Large-scale ascent remains rather subtle, though some
mid/upper-level support is possibly being provided by an MCV moving
across portions of IL.

As MLCINH continues to weaken across the area, the concern is for
increasingly surface-based convection to develop, especially from
far eastern IN into western OH, where relatively backed low-level
flow would support some tornado threat, in addition to the threats
of hail/wind. While the evolution of ongoing storms remains
uncertain, watch issuance may be required by 20Z to address the
threat of surface-based storms with all hazards possible

[Trevor]

60% chance of Severe watch....


mcd0996.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0996
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Areas affected...Central IN into Western OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 181937Z - 182100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Evolution of ongoing storms remains uncertain, but the
severe threat may increase through the afternoon. Watch issuance is
possible by 20Z.

DISCUSSION...An apparent elevated supercell has gradually evolved
from ongoing elevated convection across northern IN, with convection
increasing into northeast IN, and also further south into more of
central IN. Large-scale ascent remains rather subtle, though some
mid/upper-level support is possibly being provided by an MCV moving
across portions of IL.

As MLCINH continues to weaken across the area, the concern is for
increasingly surface-based convection to develop, especially from
far eastern IN into western OH, where relatively backed low-level
flow would support some tornado threat, in addition to the threats
of hail/wind. While the evolution of ongoing storms remains
uncertain, watch issuance may be required by 20Z to address the
threat of surface-based storms with all hazards possible

Yeah they’re probably going to issue a tornado watch for areas north of the metro at some point then probably watches further south later.

[cloudy72]

Supercell composite impressive as well.....

SCP.PNG

[Bgoney]

ILN radar back up

[MVWxObserver]

Looks like a warning a county to your west Eric! Heads up!

Thank you, Mike!

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
338 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

INC035-065-135-182000-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-210618T2000Z/
Delaware IN-Randolph IN-Henry IN-
338 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...RANDOLPH AND NORTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTIES...

At 338 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
Albany, or 11 miles southeast of Dunkirk, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Winchester, Saratoga and Union City.

&&

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

TDUD

[Trevor]

Saw that the SPC has a 1.75” hail report from Burlington earlier. Impressive!

[Bgoney]

HRRR still struggling with initiation and coverage

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 81 here in G'ville with a DP of 72.

[Browneyedgirl]

Just got an alert that Butler County is under a tornado watch.