June 2023 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

Such a beautiful stretch of weather, aside from the drought , guess we know what it’s like to live in SanDiego, no need for a weather forecaster

[tron777]

Such a beautiful stretch of weather, aside from the drought , guess we know what it’s like to live in SanDiego, no need for a weather forecaster

It sure would be tough to have a weather forum there!

[tpweather]

I am not quite sure what month this is but dew points in the 30's across much of Ohio and northern 2/3rd of Indiana and dropping in Kentucky.

[MVWxObserver]

Such a beautiful stretch of weather, aside from the drought , guess we know what it’s like to live in SanDiego, no need for a weather forecaster

It sure would be tough to have a weather forum there!

I know, just daily marine layer talk e.g.!

[tron777]

55 at CVG currently, only 51 here. Dews in the low 40s at this time. No forecast changes. Awesome weather today thru Sat. We get wet Sunday with lingering chances into early next week. Temps in the 70s today, 80s Fri and Sat then back into the 70s thereafter.

[Bgoney]

Had 49 when I left the house

[tron777]

Had 49 when I left the house

Excellent! I knew we'd get a few locations that could drop that low.

[tron777]

[tpweather]

Had 49 when I left the house

Excellent! I knew we'd get a few locations that could drop that low.

I agree and with the dew points that dropped so low last evening we knew the 40's had a shot. Yes the dew points are back in the 40's but that is wonderful for this time of year. Overnight more folks may be in the 40's and can we get CVG below 50 which is never easy this time of year.

Sunday is starting to look like a period where some decent rain arrives. Again must overcome the dry air but it seems on Saturday we see a more southwest flow that can help moisten up the atmosphere and when the system and front move this way it could produce a decent rainfall and I will even take 1/2 inch but it could produce more depending on the speed. Is this the big change and probably but we need to see how far south the front goes early next week. Normally this time of year these fronts end up stalling somewhere in the Tennessee Valley but this is not a normal June so where it stalls will determine if we get more chances of rain next week or do we go back to another decent pattern.

[cloudy72]

Got down to 48 here!

[tron777]

Last several GFS runs are slowing Sunday down a bit so that the AM hours I think are going to be dry with rain / t-storms coming in sometime during the afternoon from West to East. highest chance is Sun night into the day on Monday as the low moves thru the area. I'll keep a lingering shower (eastern counties especially) for Tuesday then slowly bring in drier weather with clearing skies by mid week. Another system may try and pass thru Wed / Thurs but the jury is still out on the track of that one. By the following weekend, yet another system. So the pattern does look to get a little more active which is good.

I am still seeing a lot of troughiness in the extended range as well as a possible tropical system being shown in the Gulf in model fantasy range. Sometime post 6/20 (if the GFS is right), we may see a system brew and impact the Gulf Coast states.

[Bgoney]

As expected, much of the OV in moderate drought

IMG_0351.jpeg

[tron777]

Thanks Bgoney for posting the update. Not a shock at all. I suppose on avg, 4-6" of rain would bring most folks out of the drought completely. As we all know, in the summer, you need some slow moving t-storms, MCS's, or a tropical system of some kind to get big time rains. However, with the more active pattern I am seeing coming up, do I think we'll get out of it quickly? No. Drought takes a while to get going and as such, it'll take a while to leave us. I do think that enough rain is coming in the next week or two that the drought status shouldn't get worse. Hope I am not wrong with this post.

[tron777]

Good evening folks! 69 degrees as of 8:30pm at the Burlington Weather Office. High of 76 here today. Dews have been in the U30s to L40s today and that continues tonight. I know we need the rain, and it is coming, but these temps and low dews... I could take it all summer long LOL! It is so pleasant to be outside and you hardly sweat at all. Uncle Les approved!

The wildfire smoke and hazy conditions also continue into the weekend. By Sunday the rain comes in the afternoon. Widespread action overnight. it lingers into early next week. Yay or Nay mid to late week? Then another threat for the weekend. So with that in mind, the smoke "should" begin to clear out with the more active pattern mixing things up. Some much needed rainfall too! Only speaking on Sunday, I expect 0.25 to 0.75" for most folks. Some less some will over achieve. But that range is good for most locals IMO.

My game plan here in this hood is to mow the lawn tomorrow after work for the first time in weeks due to my vacation next week to Lake Erie. Going to fertilize the crops and flowers too. If my forecast is right, everything should loo wonderful upon my return on Father's Day.



A side note... this is the MWC Tournament where my Brother and I are pitted against each other. Larry Rhoads and Dan Johnson vs Me and Mark Lemke. And all of the other anglers of course. LOL! This is a tournament out of Lorain Ohio. MWC / LEWT combo, should be a nice purse with a lot of boats! You can watch the weigh in LIVE Friday and Saturday June 16-17th. Weigh-in begins at 3pm EDT. Go to the Masters Walleye Circuit Facebook page or their MWC LIVE webpage to follow the action. They also have a LIVE Leader Board as well that is updated as we weigh in.

Anyone want an AV Road Trip? HAHA! The local public do attend these weigh in's and there can sometimes be a nice crowd! I'll post some info below.

MWC Press Statement about the tournament:

https://masterswalleyecircuit.com/bass- ... ry-marine/

You may be still able to register if any of you are interested in fishing for walleye on Lake Erie for some decent money!

https://tbfwebservices.com/tourneys/mwc/register/

Fact Sheet for this tournament:

https://masterswalleyecircuit.com/wp-co ... 2023r2.pdf

MWC LIVE Weigh in: (If below doesn't work, go to their Facebook page)

https://masterswalleyecircuit.com/mwc-live/

MWC Live Leader Board:

https://www.masterswalleyecircuit.com/m ... rboard.php

[MVWxObserver]

Have a wonderful time Les, Mark, Larry and Dan!!

Currently 70 here in G'ville.

[Bgoney]

Les, your dust settling rainfall amounts look good to me.
With still no connection to the GOM ,expectations are in check, a few very isolated backyards could get the higher end or a bit more but the general rule for the region should stay in those ranges, ( .25-.75”) I just hope we get that. Definitely won’t change drought status

[tpweather]

Les, your dust settling rainfall amounts look good to me.
With still no connection to the GOM ,expectations are in check, a few very isolated backyards could get the higher end or a bit more but the general rule for the region should stay in those ranges, ( .25-.75”) I just hope we get that. Definitely won’t change drought status

Good Morning Bgoney, I agree about the amounts and I will gladly take 1/2 inch.I do believe a slight connection to the GOM as we switch the winds to the southwest and then south but I agree this system will not change the current short term drought. I am looking at next week and where does the front stall will have a big impact on who continues to get rain chances. I hope its the Ohio Valley but the Tn Valley may have a better shot but just to early with that forecast. Still no heat waves at all but again only early June and will need to watch the places that have been dry for several weeks to see if those places stay dry as that can lead to more heat. Southern Plains heating up and will need to see how that expands. The southeast ridge will try and build but it takes time especially since the southeast has been rather wet this year but sooner or later some form of a ridge will form but maybe not quite as strong that we see in many summer seasons.

[tron777]

Thank you all and good morning! Hope all of you have a great Friday and weekend. 48 in my hood this morning! Dropping into the 40s in June for me never gets old. CVG has dropped to at least 50. Not sure if they snuck down to 49 or not. Anyway... everyone knows the ongoing forecast. Hopefully we can get that 1/2" with this next system incase the next couple after that peter out. If they don't and you can get an inch... then your lawn should turn around quickly! We haven't had that scorching, searing heat yet so our lawns and gardens should be able to make a come back provided the drought doesn't get much worse. Trying to keep that positive vibe going here.

[tpweather]

Thank you all and good morning! Hope all of you have a great Friday and weekend. 48 in my hood this morning! Dropping into the 40s in June for me never gets old. CVG has dropped to at least 50. Not sure if they snuck down to 49 or not. Anyway... everyone knows the ongoing forecast. Hopefully we can get that 1/2" with this next system incase the next couple after that peter out. If they don't and you can get an inch... then your lawn should turn around quickly! We haven't had that scorching, searing heat yet so our lawns and gardens should be able to make a come back provided the drought doesn't get much worse. Trying to keep that positive vibe going here.

Good Morning Les and you are correct about the lawns and 1/2 - 1 inch should help big time. Sure there will be some areas of the lawn that could use more especially places sitting on a hill and getting that afternoon sun like my front lawn lol. No doubt going to be more active next week and just hope we are in a good spot for more chances of rainfall.. Got down to 49 this morning and the air is cool and dry when CVG gets to 50 and one reason is the winds have been from the north for the most part. Enjoy your trip my friend and I head to SC one last time next Wednesday and will be back the following Tuesday.

[tron777]

Safe travels to you Tim! We are leaving tomorrow afternoon and coming back either late Saturday or on Father's Day. Hope the weather isn't too bad up there as well as the wildfire smoke. I did not think about its possible impacts with visibility and breathing out on the Lake. It'll be interesting!

[tron777]

CVG did get down to 49 after all. 43 was the record from 1913. Wow!

[tron777]

What is the latest sub 40 degree low? We dropped to 39 degrees on 6/11/72 - Now that's impressive!

[Bgoney]

Nam would be dream for 71 northward. Hope it can get some kind of support from the rest of the 12z suite

[tpweather]

Nam would be dream for 71 northward. Hope it can get some kind of support from the rest of the 12z suite

That would be nice. I believe how quickly this system moves through is key. Usually systems move much slower this time of year so when you get a system it can add a little more rain. Problem is some of the moisture will go into getting the atmosphere primed plus you are not getting much help in picking up moisture from a wet ground because where this system is located is one of the driest areas.

[MVWxObserver]

Safe travels to you Tim! We are leaving tomorrow afternoon and coming back either late Saturday or on Father's Day. Hope the weather isn't too bad up there as well as the wildfire smoke. I did not think about its possible impacts with visibility and breathing out on the Lake. It'll be interesting!

Prayerfully the rain chances coming up can also help to wash out the air from the smoke, too.

Praying though, too, for great weather for your fishing, Bro!