May 2023 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Les next week looks great. So what stands out in terms of weather in the USA. The amount of rainfall expected in the southwest gets the nod. Getting rainfall this time of year in that part of the country is rare. They have been rather dry and this should at least keep temps in check for a few weeks in that part of the country and makes it hard to get a heat wave heading this way. The west coast has temps well above normal and that looks to extend into western Canada as well. Over the past several years this has been a weather event that happens quite often this time of year and of course this has led to cooler mid-spring periods for us locally.

[tron777]

Thru 5/11, CVG is running 2.5 degrees below avg for temps, and right at normal for rainfall at 1.71" so seeing some rain today / tomorrow is right on cue with where we need to be.

[tron777]

Les next week looks great. So what stands out in terms of weather in the USA. The amount of rainfall expected in the southwest gets the nod. Getting rainfall this time of year in that part of the country is rare. They have been rather dry and this should at least keep temps in check for a few weeks in that part of the country and makes it hard to get a heat wave heading this way. The west coast has temps well above normal and that looks to extend into western Canada as well. Over the past several years this has been a weather event that happens quite often this time of year and of course this has led to cooler mid-spring periods for us locally.

I keep seeing cool fronts thru the end of May so expect avg to below avg temps as a whole with 1 or 2 above normal days ahead of each front. This should keep a rain chance also in the forecast for a couple of days each week. As long as we continue to see an inch of rain each week, we're good to go.

[tron777]

This Week in Weather from DT:

[tron777]

From the boys as of 10am:

Latest surface analysis shows the warm front stalled around the
OH River this morning. A broken line of showers is currently
moving NNE through our counties. Precipitation remains on the
lighter side with this line right now based on reflectivity
values, but the 12Z ILN sounding did observe PWATs over 1.4"
already. Currently no thunder present given the lack of
instability, but cannot rule out a stray lightning strike this
morning as this line moves through.

There will be a break in the precip before additional
showers/storms fire off this afternoon. SB CAPE values will
increase above 500 J/kg and may even approach 1000 J/kg in some
locations. This will help fuel these storms, but the rest of the
environment is lacking the parameters that would be conducive
to producing severe weather. Instead, the lower wind shear
values, coupled with deep-layer moisture (PWATs increasing to
1.5" to 1.7" range) will create an environment that will produce
some slower moving soakers. Repeated rounds of showers,
especially where storms develop, could create some minor
flooding issues. Given that the overall forcing remains weak,
flood risk remains low through the day as any hydro issues
should remain more isolated.

[tpweather]

Next round of showers and some thundershowers are starting to get organized to the south. I would say between 3-5pm many folks should start seeing these enter the area. Somewhat of a summer pattern but the amount of showers will be greater than a normal July day. Saturday looks very similar with the most likely times for rain is early in the day and then later in the afternoon and early evening. Hopefully everyone cashes in and so far with the first round this morning I received 0.13 though many folks got the old goose egg,

[tron777]

Getting a shower now... enough to wet the ground. Should be measurable too.

[tron777]

Had 77, now down to 72 with 0.02" in the books so far today. Hey, it's a start!

[snowbo]

Had .08 with that first band.

[tron777]

Nothing on radar looks heavy at all until you get down into TN. Assuming some of that can survive and get in here tonight.

[Wxlrnr]

Checked my rain guage, just under a quarter of an inch this morning.

[tron777]

Most of it falls apart when it gets in here. No additional rain since my last post.

[tron777]

Got another light shower moving thru. Maybe another 0.01" for a total today of 0.03" incoming...

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 85 and partly cloudy in Miami for the Redlegs / Marlins 6:40 game.

Currently 70 here in G'ville.

[MVWxObserver]

Got to 82 in both CVG and CMH and 81 DAY yesterday.

CVG 75, DAY 79 and CMH 78 today.

[tron777]

Got another light shower moving thru. Maybe another 0.01" for a total today of 0.03" incoming...

Nope. Still at 0.02" CVG has the same so far today.

[MVWxObserver]

A couple reports from tornado-ravaged Nebraska today ...

2310 2 W UEHLING DODGE NE 4174 9654 COMMERCIAL CATTLE FEED LOT HEAVILY DAMAGED ... SEVERAL HUNDRED CATTLE LOOSE. (OAX)

2336 4 SW LYONS BURT NE 4190 9654 *** 2 INJ *** LARGE WEDGE TORNADO REPORTED IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. DELAYED REPORT OF 2 KNOWN INJURIES BETWEEN LYONS AND OAKLAND. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. (OAX)

[MVWxObserver]

My gauge picked up .30"

[tron777]

Trace so far today here. High of 82. Currently a humid 77 dew of 68 imby. Most of the heavier rain has missed me. Crops and flowers, plants are all in for the 2023 growing season so a drink of water for it and the lawn wouldn't be a bad thing.

Going to my Brother's for a fish fry tomorrow for Mother's Day! Hope all the AV Mom's out there have a great day with their families.

[tron777]

The forecast for Mother's Day is nice with temps in the upper 70s. A front drops in for chance POPS Sun ight night into early Mon. Then highs in the 70s lows in the 70s with sunshine. Thurs night into Fri is our next system due into the area. POPS last into next weekend at this early stage of the game.

[MVWxObserver]

Got to 80 at CVG, 77 DAY and 76 CMH today.

[tron777]

I'm up to 0.02" now for today.

[MVWxObserver]

Picked up .90" from this morning for a combo since Fri of 1.20"

[tpweather]

Happy Mother's Day to all the wonderful moms. No rain in my backyard since Friday. Models are not doing well with this pattern and of course have rain here for Tuesday which is a change overnight. I do like warm moist air flowing over a cooler surface which is the case on Tuesday. How far north the rain goes is the big question. As we know patterns get stuck and I see no changes over the next few weeks but that means no heat wave which is good. Hopefully the rains become more widespread and each week we get closer to the summer months of June-August we need the vegetation to be doing well.

[tron777]

Just a couple of small rain chances upcoming folks, not much. Tonight and again Tues as Tim mentioned. Best shot for rain still looks to be next Thurs night / Friday time period. Highs mainly in the 70s with lows in the U40s and 50s.