June 2021 Weather Discussion

[cloudy72]

Ooh baby - Slight risk on Friday - discuss!!

day3otlk_0730.gif

[tron777]

I'm sure it'll happen since I am leaving Fri morning for MO, will be back Sun. So no doubt this will likely be the event of the summer. All joking aside, the GFS continues to lead the way here with this front coming in slower then the Euro so we've got two really good chances for rain. Fri and Sat both until the front finally slips thru. I think what's left of Claudette misses us to the SE early next week, but the good trade off is another front brings in another shot of fall like air next week.

So back to Friday, since that is our immediate concern and the best shear and CAPE looks to be just N of us on the NAM. Could be a nice I-70 rider type of event. N Cincy burbs, that kind of thing. GFS is a little further south so more of CVG Land would be in play. As I said yesterday, we'll have the heat to play with, should be an upper 80s to perhaps a 90 degree type of day. Better chance of storms comes in the late afternoon and evening then again overnight Fri into Sat morning. Then chance POPS Sunday, likely on Monday, with a front with lingering about with action early Tues. also possible. The humidity and temps drop yet again. Those are my thoughts over the next week.

[tron777]

62 this morning at CVG I believe is going to do it. Not as cool as last night thanks to some clouds over the area this morning. Some sun is still getting thru though. Most folks should remain in the upper 70s today with a rouge 80 or 81 possible in NKY.

[tron777]

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/06/16/goode- ... -blog-616/

[cloudy72]

Dropped to 59 here in my hood this morning. Trying not to get too excited about Friday - I know how our area can have so much go right, then have one negative ruin it all (CAPE, Shear, Moisture, time of day, etc). We are seriously due for something big so if not Friday, I believe our time will come. I guess you could say the same thing about our winters! LOL

[tron777]

I get to deal with this in St Louis for high temps:

Fri - 101
Sat - 93
Sun - 96

Can't wait to get back here for the cooler air resides.

[cloudy72]

3km NAM looks very promising for later Friday (esp north of the river) - haven't seen parameters like these all year.

[tron777]

3km NAM looks very promising for later Friday (esp north of the river) - haven't seen parameters like these all year.

Told ya since I won't be here it'll probably turn out to be the best event of the season.

[cloudy72]

Here is the 3km NAM sounding for 20z Friday at DAY. Look at all that CAPE man!

nam4km_2021061612_056_KDAY.png

Supercell composite over 30 and STP over 5!!!

[tron777]

That model sounding has to be a bit overdone. It's pretty rare for us to have Tornado Alley type values around here. Even if it's halfway close, this could be a significant wind event for someone in our forum coverage area. I-70 Crew IMHO is most at risk from this first round. CVG and points south should have a better chance at the 2nd round late Fri night into early Sat morning time frame.

[cloudy72]

The NAM is also showing dewpoints in the lower 70s FRI afternoon, so with any mixing that happens during the day you will shave off those extreme parameter values. Still something to watch, but I agree likely not as extreme as what is being shown.

[tron777]

The NAM is also showing dewpoints in the lower 70s FRI afternoon, so with any mixing that happens during the day you will shave off those extreme parameter values. Still something to watch, but I agree likely not as extreme as what is being shown.

I could see 3000 J/KG CAPE values occurring though. That is absolutely possible.

[tron777]

Still seeing the GFS stalling the front out over Cincy / CVG versus the Euro blowing it on thru. GFS still seems to be the way to go here and it's had the hot hand also since the upgrade.

EDIT: CAPE Values on the sounding are also more realistic, 3000 J/kg.

[tron777]

The extended range for the rest of June features the GFS continuing to be rock solid with its solution of repeated cold frontal attacks and cool pushes of air. Then we warm up, get a shot of storms then the same thing occurs. No idea if this continues into July, that remains to be seen but for now, the rest of June... the story really is, the lack of heat. No complaints here lol

[tron777]

12Z Euro is finally on board for Sat morning for CVG. Brings in a half inch of rain. Euro is def behind the 8 ball here.

[tron777]

77 / 47 as of 2pm at CVG. CoC type of weather day out there.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and a beautiful day for mid-June. Main discussion is the possible severe weather later Friday and also don't count out Sunday morning. May be the best shot we have had all season which is really sad. Be nice to see the decent rains without the severe portion.

[tron777]

79 currently here and at CVG. 80 is possible but that's probably about it for the day/. Wish it was always like this in the summer time.

[tron777]

Looks like CVG officially made it to 80. 79 here. The boys and their current thoughts for Fri / Sat:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The high shifts to the southeast of the region Thursday with
southerly flow commencing in the forecast area. Dry air and
subsidence remains for one more day, so expect mostly sunny
skies and warming temperatures into the low to mid 80s.

Shortwave energy kicks east into the upper Great Lakes by
evening, and focus shifts to potential for a thunderstorm
complex developing in the upper Midwest overnight. Forecast
soundings show much uncertainty in the location as well as
intensity of the potential MCS by morning, so have opted for
scattered showers and thunderstorms over west central Ohio by
the end of the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An active weather pattern will be in place for the long term time
frame. A system will weaken as it moves into northern portions of
the region Friday morning. Cannot rule out an isolated strong to
severe storm, however better severe threat will be later in the day.

How quickly this system dissipates and how quickly the atmosphere
recovers will have implications on placement and intensity of later
in the day convection. Due to this uncertainty, there is a severe
threat for the entire region Friday late afternoon and into Friday
night. Expect additional thunderstorm develop during this time.
Damaging wind will be the primary severe threat, however isolated
hail cannot be ruled out.

In addition, working into Friday night the flow becomes oriented
more in a west to east fashion as the front stalls out across the
region. Due to this there will be the potential for some flooding
concerns as well. The front will remain in the vicinity for
Saturday allowing for additional thunderstorm chances. This feature
will lift northward more on Sunday and therefore there will be less
in the way of precipitation coverage.

[Trevor]

18z high res NAM looks pretty wicked for the region as a whole re: Friday PM.

[tron777]

18z high res NAM looks pretty wicked for the region as a whole re: Friday PM.

Pretty damn nice signal showing up for a bowing segment to move thru from NW to SE across the area.

[tron777]

18Z GFS is a little slower then the 18Z NAM but it's there come Fri late evening say around 9-11pm. Sometimes though these complexes can move faster then what the guidance suggests so I'd keep that in mind for now. The timing will be much easier once the line forms to the NW and we can actually see how fast it's moving. I'd say it'll be cooking pretty good IMO.

[Trevor]

18z high res NAM looks pretty wicked for the region as a whole re: Friday PM.

Pretty damn nice signal showing up for a bowing segment to move thru from NW to SE across the area.

For sure! I can essentially guarantee a portion of the SLGT risk will be upgraded to ENH overnight, with an increasing chance of an upgrade to MDT for some in subsequent updates (either tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night). Trends over the last 24-36 hours have been rather consistent on a potential high-end damaging wind event for the Ohio Valley. Lots to monitor of course.

[tron777]

18z high res NAM looks pretty wicked for the region as a whole re: Friday PM.

Pretty damn nice signal showing up for a bowing segment to move thru from NW to SE across the area.

For sure! I can essentially guarantee a portion of the SLGT risk will be upgraded to ENH overnight, with an increasing chance of an upgrade to MDT for some in subsequent updates (either tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night). Trends over the last 24-36 hours have been rather consistent on a potential high-end damaging wind event for the Ohio Valley. Lots to monitor of course.

Absolutely agree with you Trev! In fact, the SPC discussion from today did mention a likely upgrade to a portion of the slight risk area once we get closer. So there you go.

[Trevor]

18z high res NAM looks pretty wicked for the region as a whole re: Friday PM.

Pretty damn nice signal showing up for a bowing segment to move thru from NW to SE across the area.

For sure! I can essentially guarantee a portion of the SLGT risk will be upgraded to ENH overnight, with an increasing chance of an upgrade to MDT for some in subsequent updates (either tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night). Trends over the last 24-36 hours have been rather consistent on a potential high-end damaging wind event for the Ohio Valley. Lots to monitor of course.

Absolutely agree with you Trev! In fact, the SPC discussion from today did mention a likely upgrade to a portion of the slight risk area once we get closer. So there you go.

Right on! I was so busy at work today that I didn’t get a chance to read it. Will do so now (even though it’s many hours old). But yeah definitely ENH on the new day two outlook issued tonight. Then the increasing potential for a MDT as well for some areas in later updates depending on future model trends.