Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[tron777]

TS Bill with winds of 50 mph is racing away from the US at 31 mph to the NE and will probably hammer the UK next week.

The S Gulf low still has a 70% chance in the next 5 days and the African wave still at 20%.

[tron777]

All eyes now are on the S Gulf Low which now has a 60% chance in the next 48 hours and a 90% chance now in the next 5 days. This will likely become a TD in another day or two and Claudette by Friday or Sat.

[tron777]

Still waiting for a TD here... 80% chance in the next 48 hours and 90% thereafter.

[tron777]

90% chance in the next 48 hours. I think we'll see a TD or a named system in the next 12 to 24 hours.

[tron777]

We now have TD3:

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast from
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border,
including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New
Orleans.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.

[MVWxObserver]

TD3 is moving north with sustained wind of 35 mph just 4 mph under TS status. Claudette before today is over.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes possible

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

TS Claudette

[MVWxObserver]

From Friday ...

0537 UNK 1 NE PASS CHRISTIAN HARRISON MS 3033 8923 ROOF DAMAGE TO HOUSE ON DEBBIE STREET. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (LIX)

0731 UNK 1 SSW LONG BEACH HARRISON MS 3035 8918 NUMEROUS TREES UPROOTED AND SNAPPED BETWEEN WHITE HARBOR RD AND PERIWINKLE LN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (LIX)

0815 4 SSW ALABAMA PORT MOBILE AL 3031 8814 *** 1 INJ *** PER A DIRECT REPORT FROM MOBILE COUNTY 911 ... A TORNADO HIT THE CEDAR POINT FISHING PIER LOCATED AT 18250 DAUPHIN ISLAND PARKWAY. A 2X4 BOARD WAS LAUNCHED. (MOB)

1026 UNK 8 ENE ESCATAWPA JACKSON MS 3054 8843 TREES DOWN AND THREE POLES SNAPPED ON STATE LINE RD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (LIX)

1146 81 PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL ESCAMBIA FL 3047 8719 KPNS ASOS GUST TO 81MPH. (MOB)

1148 1 SSW PACE SANTA ROSA FL 3059 8716 CORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 1 SSW PACE. SANTA ROSA 911 CALL CENTER REPORTS PUBLIC CALLED AND REPORTED TORNADO TOUCHDOWN. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED. (MOB)

1148 UNK 1 N FERRY PASS ESCAMBIA FL 3053 8721 FIRE DEPARTMENT/EM REPORTS TREES ON HOMES ... BUILDING DAMAGE ... MULTIPLE LIGHT POLES DOWN. (MOB)

1150 3 NE PENSACOLA INTERNAT GMZ634 FL 3051 8716 18 WHEELER OVERTURNED ON EASTBOUND I-10 ESCAMBIA BAY BRIDGE. TIME ESTIMATED USING RADAR. (MOB)

1152 6 NNW PACE SANTA ROSA FL 3069 8719 TORNADO CONFIRMED BY PUBLIC AND LAW ENFORCEMENT. 5-6 BUILDINGS DAMAGED. NO INJURIES REPORTED. CALL CAME IN AT 704AM. (MOB)

[MVWxObserver]

From today ...

1235 1 SE EAST BREWTON ESCAMBIA AL 3109 8706 *** 20 INJ *** ESCAMBIA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS APPROXIMATELY 15-20 INJURIES FROM THE TORNADO THAT TOUCHED DOWN IN EAST BREWTON. MOST WERE MINOR INJURIES. (MOB)

1235 1 SE EAST BREWTON ESCAMBIA AL 3109 8706 MULTIPLE TRAILER HOMES DAMAGED. PHOTOS PROVIDED ON SOCIAL MEDIA. (MOB)

1236 UNK 4 SE SARDINE ESCAMBIA AL 3109 8732 NEWS MEDIA REPORTS FLOMATON FIRE DPT DISPATCHED TO UPPER CREEK RD FOR LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROAD. (MOB)

1240 3 S KIRKLAND ESCAMBIA AL 3115 8704 TRAILER FLIPPED OVER ON SAMS LN. BREWTON FIRE DEPARTMENT DISPATCHED NO INJURIES REPORTED. (MOB)

1243 1 NNW KIRKLAND ESCAMBIA AL 3120 8704 RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. (MOB)

1402 UNK 2 SW SOUTHPORT BAY FL 3027 8567 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN; SHINGLES BLOWN OFF. (TAE)

1642 UNK 2 WSW GALLIVER OKALOOSA FL 3071 8675 LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING RD ON LOG LAKE RD @ US HWY 90 W. (MOB)

1733 4 SW KOLOMOKI MOUNDS STATE PARK EARLY GA 3143 8498 DAMAGE TO HOUSES REPORTED NEAR WHITE CHANDLER RD. (TAE)

1735 2 WSW KOLOMOKI MOUNDS STATE PARK EARLY GA 3146 8497 DAMAGE REPORTED TO A BARN PUMP NEAR SAWYER RD. (TAE)

1756 3 W HARRISONS MILL CLAY GA 3155 8493 SPOTTER CONFIRMED TORNADO. (TAE)

1800 UNK 2 E SEAGROVE BEACH WALTON FL 3031 8609 REPORT OF A POWER POLE DOWN NEAR LAKEVIEW DR. (TAE)

1840 1 SSE PETERSON HILL RANDOLPH GA 3177 8484 TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 82 THAT COINCIDE WITH OBSERVED TDS. (TAE)

1907 UNK BLACK GENEVA AL 3101 8574 2 TREES REPORTED DOWN IN BLACK. (TAE)

1927 UNK 1 NE OZARK DALE AL 3146 8564 TREE REPORTED DOWN IN OZARK. (TAE)

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A couple tornadoes possible

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

[tron777]

TD Claudette continues to move thru the SE US and eventually could become a TS again off the East Coast by sometime tomorrow. But it will move out to sea but lash the NC Coast on its way out with wind and heavy rains.

[tron777]

Next disturbance in the pipeline has a 30$ chance of development. It's currently located about 500 miles E of the Windward Islands in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean so we've got a while to watch this one.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[cloudy72]

GFS has been hinting at a system in the GOM middle to latter portion of next week impacting the northern gulf coast.

[tron777]

GFS has been hinting at a system in the GOM middle to latter portion of next week impacting the northern gulf coast.

Wondering if it's the disturbance out in the Eastern ATL or is the GFS hinting at a completely different one?

[tron777]

The eastern ATL wave is weakening and now only has a 10% chance of development.

[cloudy72]

Wondering if it's the disturbance out in the Eastern ATL or is the GFS hinting at a completely different one?

Hard to tell in looking at the model. Maybe a piece of the Atlantic disturbance breaks away and into the Caribbean/GOM? One run has it, then next run it disappears! LOL

[tron777]

Wondering if it's the disturbance out in the Eastern ATL or is the GFS hinting at a completely different one?

Hard to tell in looking at the model. Maybe a piece of the Atlantic disturbance breaks away and into the Caribbean/GOM? One run has it, then next run it disappears! LOL

It's probably going to be a completely different system since the wave now only has a 10% chance of development. Agree with you that the GFS is struggling attm with the tropics. The signal for a tropical system looked much stronger a couple of days ago. That strong of a signal can still return as we both know.

[tron777]

We have a new wave coming off the African Coast that has a 40% chance of development in the next 5 days. Odd to see a wave having a chance way out there this early in the season, but it's the weather and anything can happen.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[cloudy72]

We have a new wave coming off the African Coast that has a 40% chance of development in the next 5 days. Odd to see a wave having a chance way out there this early in the season, but it's the weather and anything can happen.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

May need to watch this one in time - both EPS and to some extent the GFS Ens eventually bring this into the Caribbean. Still lots to time to monitor of course.

Also - maybe some more Gulf action?

eps_cyclones_atlantic_240_2021062400.png

[tron777]

Love those maps, Mike! Thanks so much for posting that. We've got a lot to keep an eye on for sure and the tropics still absolutely can impact our 4th of July weekend forecast here locally. That is my ultimate concern.

[MVWxObserver]

We have a new wave coming off the African Coast that has a 40% chance of development in the next 5 days. Odd to see a wave having a chance way out there this early in the season, but it's the weather and anything can happen.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Now down to 20%, will probably of course 'waffle' back and forth over the coming days.

[tron777]

30% now

[MVWxObserver]

And now 10%

[tron777]

The Eastern ATL wave is back up to a 30% chance today. We have a new wave off the SE Coast that has a 20% chance of development before running into the SE Coast by Mon afternoon. The window for development here is very short.

[tron777]

The wave off the SE Coast (which is headed towards the US) has a shot at developing. NHC has it as a 60% chance.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2