March 2023 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

What a gloomy day! Haven’t checked in lately because my husband passed away on the 12th after being ill for a few months. Hoping at least the rain moves out before his memorial service tomorrow morning.

So sorry to hear about your husband. Never easy to say in words how sorry you are and if you need anything from your weather friends we are here.

[tpweather]

I think a half inch to an inch for most of AVland with the next round ,with only isolated 1.5” amounts mostly in the southern and Se parts

I agree and the only thing I see different is the higher totals will be southwest of here nearer the low itself. Still believe we will have localized totals in a short period that can hit the 2-3 inch range in a couple of hours and that has been the case earlier today. The good thing is the system will be moving quickly and that will help keep totals down somewhat. Before all said and done 2-4 looks good for both events and yes we could see a few locals can go higher like we saw last night and early this morning.

[tron777]

We all echo Tim's wonderful post, Leslie! We are all one big weather family here!

[tron777]

Good evening all...

1.53" going into round 2 here. 44 current temp, dew of 43. Let's take a look at the meso analysis this evening on a Friday night. Crack open a beer on this soon to be rainy night. Tornado watches and warnings to the south in the usual places that have been getting hammered! A chaser's dream, but a local resident nightmare, Prayers for those impacted.

Locally, a heavy rain event as we expected on our great forum with our great team of forecasters. I wouldn't be who am I today without this forum and the people who post here. A quick thanks to all who come here! I don't think I say that enough.

Ok weather time now and a 1000 MB Low in AR is getting its act together. I think it moves NE across TN overnight. More overrunning moisture thus heavy rain is likely ahead of the warm front that causes temps to rise by morning. Then winds get cranking as the low passes, gusty showers... isolated severe SE? Then, things calm down by Sunday. Briefly. Winds Sat gusting to 50 with the advisory. I think my 3" rain call is on target.

[tron777]

Temps in Central KY south of the warm front are in the U50s to L60s. 40s here of course north of it. Thinking I-64 ish is the warm front's position as of this post.

HereSheComesPart2.gif

[tron777]

Light rain has commenced again here and my gauge is starting to register rain again. High was 54 today which occurred at 12:10pm when we had the brief break. 44 / 42 currently. CVG as of 7pm, 1.39"

[tpweather]

Good evening all...

1.53" going into round 2 here. 44 current temp, dew of 43. Let's take a look at the meso analysis this evening on a Friday night. Crack open a beer on this soon to be rainy night. Tornado watches and warnings to the south in the usual places that have been getting hammered! A chaser's dream, but a local resident nightmare, Prayers for those impacted.

Locally, a heavy rain event as we expected on our great forum with our great team of forecasters. I wouldn't be who am I today without this forum and the people who post here. A quick thanks to all who come here! I don't think I say that enough.

Ok weather time now and a 1000 MB Low in AR is getting its act together. I think it moves NE across TN overnight. More overrunning moisture thus heavy rain is likely ahead of the warm front that causes temps to rise by morning. Then winds get cranking as the low passes, gusty showers... isolated severe SE? Then, things calm down by Sunday. Briefly. Winds Sat gusting to 50 with the advisory. I think my 3" rain call is on target.

Great Post Les and like you said a great forum and some wonderful folks who love the weather. I was lucky to find a local weather forum years ago and has been part of my life ever since. I had never looked at a model until I joined a forum.

Sad but true but my daughter is in Gatlinburg,Tn this weekend and they have a high wind warning with gusts expected over 70mph. Beautiful day here in Greenville with temps in the low 80's and low humidity for this part of the country.

[tpweather]

Les been watching the system today and since we have a low that is getting stronger I was tending to put the heaviest rains to the south and west tonight.

[tron777]

Good evening all...

1.53" going into round 2 here. 44 current temp, dew of 43. Let's take a look at the meso analysis this evening on a Friday night. Crack open a beer on this soon to be rainy night. Tornado watches and warnings to the south in the usual places that have been getting hammered! A chaser's dream, but a local resident nightmare, Prayers for those impacted.

Locally, a heavy rain event as we expected on our great forum with our great team of forecasters. I wouldn't be who am I today without this forum and the people who post here. A quick thanks to all who come here! I don't think I say that enough.

Ok weather time now and a 1000 MB Low in AR is getting its act together. I think it moves NE across TN overnight. More overrunning moisture thus heavy rain is likely ahead of the warm front that causes temps to rise by morning. Then winds get cranking as the low passes, gusty showers... isolated severe SE? Then, things calm down by Sunday. Briefly. Winds Sat gusting to 50 with the advisory. I think my 3" rain call is on target.

Great Post Les and like you said a great forum and some wonderful folks who love the weather. I was lucky to find a local weather forum years ago and has been part of my life ever since. I had never looked at a model until I joined a forum.

Sad but true but my daughter is in Gatlinburg,Tn this weekend and they have a high wind warning with gusts expected over 70mph. Beautiful day here in Greenville with temps in the low 80's and low humidity for this part of the country.

80s? Would have been a wonderful day for fishing. We are a little ways away from those kind of days here.

[tron777]

Les been watching the system today and since we have a low that is getting stronger I was tending to put the heaviest rains to the south and west tonight.

700 MB frontogenic forcing.

7fnt_sf.gif

[tpweather]

Light rain continues but the bigger show is heading towards the local area. Will there be any strong to severe storms and they look to stay south of the area but would not be surprised to hear some thunder overnight

[MVWxObserver]

What a gloomy day! Haven’t checked in lately because my husband passed away on the 12th after being ill for a few months. Hoping at least the rain moves out before his memorial service tomorrow morning.

So very sorry to hear, Leslie. Prayers and condolences with you and your family, Wxbuddy.

[MVWxObserver]

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[Trevor]

Moderate risk bust yesterday. However there was a long tracking supercell that produced a large tornado in MS as seen in the attached map. That thing was a beast! Other than that, not much to speak of in the MDT risk.

[Trevor]

General 2-3” for most with 4-5” in the pink/red areas.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and looks like the rain is over but a very windy day. Good news is we stayed away from the real heavy rain overnight but still a good soaking. Bad news is the severe weather in the south which killed 21 already. The energy down there kept us from getting any strong storms here but also kept rain totals down for us.

[Bgoney]

Moderate risk bust yesterday. However there was a long tracking supercell that produced a large tornado in MS as seen in the attached map. That thing was a beast! Other than that, not much to speak of in the MDT risk.

I don’t know Trev , I wouldn’t call that a bust at all. Those risk areas to me mean somewhere in that particular zone a strong tornado is likely and that is what happened. Just because a larger number didn’t happen I don’t think I’d call it a bust

[tron777]

2.52" at CVG as of 8am - event total so far.
2.67" - My hood

Looks like I'll miss the mark on my 3" call by a little bit. Still a decent system and now we get to deal with gusts to 50 mph all day today. Waaa Hooo!

[snowbo]

Event total of 2.65" so far.

[Angelika]

Event total 4.1"

[cloudy72]

Event total of 4.03”

[tron777]

Awesome to see a couple of 4" amounts! I guess the call did good for some folks. I just had a nice 10 min downpour. My temp went from 63, sunny and windy to rain blowing sideways for 10 mins and a temp down to 55. Wind gusted to 45 mph. No hail.

Edit: Now it is sunny again lol

[tron777]

43 mph is the peak wind gust so far at CVG.

[MVWxObserver]

Picked up 1.60" from overnight / Sat AM for a combo 2.88" since Tues.

Currently 52 with a gust of 47 mph here in G'ville.

[tron777]

New peak gust at CVG to 48 mph.