June 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

So while our booooooring weather continues here, just to our east another Severe Thunderstorm Watch about to be issued for far eastern OH into PA and northern WV. How many times have they been hit this season? LOL

About 3X's as often as our area?

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and another hot but not as steamy day. The next 3 days looks great with warm temps but nice dew points and also an easy time to get a sunburn. Late this week into the weekend looks much busier and several things to look at and what happens with the weather locally. First we have a cold front that will try to arrive hear later Friday but it will probably stall out somewhere nearby. Then we have the tropical system which will try and move northeast out of the GOM. This won't be a big storm but will have plenty of moisture. So what happens to us is not an easy forecast. If the front stalls do we get some rainfall and probably yes but must be careful if the front is to far north or south because you could end up with just a partly to mostly cloudy couple of days with a few showers. Will the tropical system help with more moisture or will the system sort of keep the moisture bottled up and we end up will less rainfall. After the tropical system heads back out into the Atlantic will we get that nice refreshing brand of air for early next week while we wait for the return flow to bring back the humidity. So yes summer can be very boring in regards to the weather but I expect later this week for a few days we will have something to talk about.

[tron777]

Also agree Tim... Friday into next week continues to look active from cold fronts trying to push in, and some tropical action coming in from the Gulf. As mentioned, the timing and interaction between a cold front and the tropical system will determine temps and rainfall for us come next week.

[tron777]

88 as of 2pm at CVG... a pretty good chance at a contest day here.

[tron777]

89'ed as of 3pm...

[tpweather]

Florida getting some needed rainfall today. Been dry year for those folks.

[tpweather]

Another 90 degree day at CVG

[tron777]

Another 90 degree day at CVG

You beat me to it. 88 so far here...

[MVWxObserver]

Happy Flag Day!!

Currently 79 here in Greenville.

[tron777]

Nice to see the dews have dropped into the U40s to around 50 or so.

[tron777]

An EF0 Tornado was confirmed on 6/11 in Lewis, Co Kentucky:

Code: Select all

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
936 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...BRIEF EF0 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR RIBOLT IN LEWIS COUNTY
KENTUCKY ON JUNE 11, 2021...


Location...Near Ribolt in Lewis County Kentucky
Date...June 11, 2021
Estimated Starting Time...7:09 PM EDT
Estimated Ending Time...7:11 PM EDT
Maximum EF-Scale Rating....EF-0
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...65 mph
Maximum Path Width...50 yards
Path Length...0.20 miles
Beginning Lat/Lon...38.5749N / 83.5119W
Ending Lat/Lon...38.5735N / 83.5095W
* Fatalities...0
* Injuries...0

...Summary...

The National Weather Service, with assistance and support from the
Lewis County Kentucky Emergency Management Agency, confirms a very
brief and weak tornado touched down near Ribolt just south of the
AA Highway during the evening of Friday, June 11, 2021. Much of
the damage was concentrated along the beginning of May Hollow
Road. One tree was knocked down, and several large limbs were also
blown over and placed a few hundred feet from the tree. An
outbuilding also sustained damage, which included partial roof
collapse. Several eyewitnesses reported a funnel, and video taken
near the location of damage shows a funnel extending downward near
the ground. Based on an evaluation of the damage, winds
associated with this brief tornado were around 65 mph.

The National Weather Service in Wilmington would like to thank the
Lewis County Emergency Management Agency for their assistance with
these findings.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

* The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

[Bgoney]

Good Afternoon and another hot but not as steamy day. The next 3 days looks great with warm temps but nice dew points and also an easy time to get a sunburn. Late this week into the weekend looks much busier and several things to look at and what happens with the weather locally. First we have a cold front that will try to arrive hear later Friday but it will probably stall out somewhere nearby. Then we have the tropical system which will try and move northeast out of the GOM. This won't be a big storm but will have plenty of moisture. So what happens to us is not an easy forecast. If the front stalls do we get some rainfall and probably yes but must be careful if the front is to far north or south because you could end up with just a partly to mostly cloudy couple of days with a few showers. Will the tropical system help with more moisture or will the system sort of keep the moisture bottled up and we end up will less rainfall. After the tropical system heads back out into the Atlantic will we get that nice refreshing brand of air for early next week while we wait for the return flow to bring back the humidity. So yes summer can be very boring in regards to the weather but I expect later this week for a few days we will have something to talk about.

Nice post Tim, the 12z and 18z GFS show exactly that . 12z , front stalls close enough cvgland gets a soaking, 18z front stalls in Daytonland/I-70 for a soaking while we are pretty much dry

[tron777]

Awesome weather thru Thurs guys enjoy it! The warmth, humidity and POPS return by Friday. A small chance mind you. Fri could be a contest day also. Likely chances with a front on Sat. GFSA and Euro have the front coming in quickly so the tropical system misses us to the SE. But, the trade off is another cold front with a rain chance followed by another blast of cool air. I'll take that!

[cloudy72]

Maybe we can get a nice MCS surprise on Friday?

On Friday/D4, storms may be ongoing early in the day across IL, IN,
MI and OH along an advancing front. A large area of moderate
west/northwest flow aloft will accompany the shortwave trough, with
areas of instability most likely remaining south/west of the early
day activity and ahead of the trailing cold front. This corridor of
potential may exist anywhere from WV to MO, and will depend on the
location of the front and any outflows. Probabilities may be
introduced across parts of the Midwest or OH Valley for Friday/D4 as
predictability increases.

[tron777]

We'll see Mike.... we'll have some heat to work with so that's a plus. Just not sure where the frontal zone will be. Might be too far north for us down here, so maybe an I-70 event? Plenty of time to try and figure this one out. Right now for CVG, I'm going with low POPS for Fri and likely for Sat at this point.

[winterstormjoe]

We'll see Mike.... we'll have some heat to work with so that's a plus. Just not sure where the frontal zone will be. Might be too far north for us down here, so maybe an I-70 event? Plenty of time to try and figure this one out. Right now for CVG, I'm going with low POPS for Fri and likely for Sat at this point.

Hopefully, we can get one quick round to move through over night Friday in to Saturday morning and clear out for the rest of Saturday as I'm going camping at Natural Springs (just north of Dayton) from Thursday through Sunday.

[tron777]

We'll see Mike.... we'll have some heat to work with so that's a plus. Just not sure where the frontal zone will be. Might be too far north for us down here, so maybe an I-70 event? Plenty of time to try and figure this one out. Right now for CVG, I'm going with low POPS for Fri and likely for Sat at this point.

Hopefully, we can get one quick round to move through over night Friday in to Saturday morning and clear out for the rest of Saturday as I'm going camping at Natural Springs (just north of Dayton) from Thursday through Sunday.

I'd be happy with that outcome also Joe even though I won't be here. Going to MO on Friday, be back Sunday to celebrate my Grandma's life. Finally are going to have that Memorial Service for her.

[Bgoney]

12z GFS stays consistent with a good soaking for much of AVland Fri/Sat. While the EU has consistently downplayed qpf for the same period

[tron777]

Thanks Bgoney for the update. Much appreciated as work has been kicking my butt pretty good today so I haven't even had time to look. Hopefully, the GFS continues with its hot hand. Means more rain and less heat versus the last few Euro solutions which are warmer and drier as you mentioned.

[tron777]

79 with a dew of 53 as of 2pm at CVG. A nice NW breeze at 10-15 mph. About as good as it gets in mid June around here.

[Bgoney]

12Z EU wants nothing to do with an MCS or soaking rains anywhere in the midwest upstream , let alone our hood for friday/Saturday. Still a couple days to early to commit to one solution

[tron777]

Place your bets folks....

Does the GFS win this round with the Fri / Sat action, or does the Euro finally score one for a change and keeps us mainly warm and dry? If the trends and persistence of the pattern win, then the GFS is correct. We get the MCS / cold front deal Fri and Sat. A swing and a miss from the tropics, but another front next week follows that up with another chance for rain and another push of cooler air. Remember... the original call of hot and dry thanks to the tropics changing up the pattern idea looks to be wrong. Even the Euro has that push of cool air next week. That much we know. It's just the bit of uncertainty for Fri / Sat that looks to be the greatest challenge attm for us.

[tron777]

57 officially this morning at CVG, reached 82 this afternoon. 81 / 56 here for the day. Another beauty tomorrow and again Thurs before we see which model solutions wins out for Fri and Sat.

[cloudy72]

It was 58 here this morning and high of 81.

[tron777]

Not much change from the 18Z GFS. Still pretty much like the 12Z where a front comes in on Friday with some storms, then it passes Sat morning with more action.