March 2023 Weather Discussion

[mikeyp]

I am at 76 at my house!!

[dce]

Per ILN as of 1:30pm - All climate sites are smashing their old records.

CVG - 74 new record thus far
DAY - 69 new record thus far
CMH - 68 new record thus far

76 as of 2pm at CVG! 70 at KDAY!

[tron777]

76 now WOW!

[tron777]

12Z Euro trying to cook up something at Day 10. Where have we seen that before?

[tron777]

78 now. Can we hit 80?

[Bgoney]

12Z Euro trying to cook up something at Day 10. Where have we seen that before?

That's the best 10 day 500mb wintry potential map of 2023!!!

[mikeyp]

I hit 78.6 to far today! WOW

[tron777]

12Z Euro trying to cook up something at Day 10. Where have we seen that before?

That's the best 10 day 500mb wintry potential map of 2023!!!

Here's the 12Z EPS - Definitely a signal showing up for something wintry in the Eastern US.

EPS.gif

[cloudy72]

75 in my hood. If it was a day earlier I would be asking if this threatens all time Feb temp records....however it is March now! LOL

[Trevor]

Severe threat is isolated, but it’s always fun when they blow up right on top of us. Should be some wicked lightning and big booms for some of us this evening. Too bad the sun will be setting as the towers going up will look nice!

[tron777]

79 at CVG...

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 70 here in G'ville and 75 in DAY.

[Bgoney]

Got up to 79 here , currently 76

[tron777]

The latest from the boys for this evening:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The start of the period is still a bit uncertain in terms of
severe threat... as of right now, there appears to be a very
narrow window both spatially and temporally where a severe
threat may materialize. As the cold front moves east into the
area, a wedge of instability and moisture-return (Tds rising
into the mid 50s) will traverse across the southern CWA. As
mentioned yesterday, lapse rates in this area are reasonably
steep, shear values will support organized convection, and DCAPE
values will be enough to allow for damaging wind gusts with any
stronger storms.

Keeping all of this in mind... the timing of this will be in the
late evening (7-10PM range) and daytime heating will be
diminishing. In addition to this, moisture wedge will still have
quite a bit of dry air to overcome, SBCAPE is limited due to a
weak inversion (however, some MLCAPE will still exist for storms
to tap into), and, therefore, initial convection does look to
remain elevated, forming along the I-71 corridor and south
before pushing eastward. Primary threat with any stronger storms
will be strong to damaging wind gusts, although cannot rule out
isolated hail or brief tornado.

Storms/showers will have moved east out of the CWA by ~4AM and
northwest flow takes over behind the cold frontal boundary. A
decent gradient exists across the area for overnight lows with
mid 30s in the far northwest and upper 40s in the far southeast.

[MVWxObserver]

Now at 72 here in G'ville and still at 75 in DAY.

[tron777]

CU field developing now IMBY. Went from completely sunny to partly cloudy in minutes. Curious about the hail potential in the strongest cells. Low level lapse rates are very steep across the Tri-state. Some weak CAPE trying to funnel it's way up the river ahead of the front. We shall see in a couple more hours.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG - 78 breaking 71 from 1976!

DAY - 75 breaking 66 from 1976!

CMH - 75 breaking 65 from 1972!

[tron777]

79 today in my hood, WOW! No wind either, a rare treat!

[tron777]

Strong storms firing down by Owensboro KY.

[tpweather]

Wow what a close call this evening and the dew points are around 40 here and upper 40's in Louisville. They have spiked to 60 in Owensboro where there is a thunderstorm warning. On Monday we saw the dew points rise around 10 degrees in a few hours but that was from 50-60 so even a 10 degree rise in two hours gets us to 50. Yes some storms will pop but will be just far enough north and west to miss most of the storms. We will find out in the next 3 hours so they wait time is not long.

[tron777]

SPC MD discussion, a watch is unlikely to be issued:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0216.html

[Trevor]

Utilizing composite reflectivity shows we have towers going up in Butler Co.

[Trevor]

We’ll see if anything can materialize. HRRR backing down from previous runs.

[Trevor]

I just want some thunder and lightning

[tron777]

I just want some thunder and lightning

Winter time t-storms have been better then summer IMBY in February. Onwards to 3/10!