February 2023 Discussion

[tron777]

If you go to the site I just posted, https://www.ventusky.com/ you'll see the incredible warmth building in Texas. Seeing current temps in the mid 80s with 90+ over the Rio Grande in Mexico. That's crazy for February! Meanwhile to the north where the arctic air is located and the impending blizzard this week, you'll find temps in the single digits below zero in ND near the Canadian border. Wow! Pretty crazy!

[tron777]

12Z Euro is looking interesting for severe wx potential on Monday of next week. A 974 MB low over NW ILL with the cold frontal passage for us coming in the afternoon. This looks to be the next window for severe wx lovers to keep an eye on.

[young pup]

Pretty gusty winds here today. I'm guessing gusting 30 to 40mph??? If it wasn't for the wind it wouldn't be a bad day at all for February.

Edit: http://hint.fm/wind/

Saving that link to my favs!

In addition, this is also another good resource:

https://www.ventusky.com/

Cool, thanks for another link.

[tron777]

Wind Advisory hoisted for a good chunk of the area for tomorrow. I would expect another to be issued tomorrow for Thursday as well.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana,
Northern Kentucky and Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday.

[tron777]

Record high at CVG for Wed is 71 set back in 1922. Can we break it? It'll be close. I expect all climate sites to have a great chance on Thurs to break records.

Thurs records:

Cincinnati 72 in 1996 and 1985
Dayton 70 in 2017
Columbus 72 in 2017

We know rain is coming later tonight into Wed morning with the warm front, then again Wed evening and overnight with the cold front washing out over the area. Windy tomorrow of course and again on Thurs. Same ole, same ole folks with the pattern the next 10 days at least.

[Bgoney]

Very early in the game for Monday but here is what the SPC has to say atm



Mon/D7 as the upper trough moves toward the Great Lakes, and a surface boundary trails southwestward into the lower MS Valley. Here, a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely remain, beneath 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies which will mean a larger component of the deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary. Instability will be less by this time owing to relatively warmer midlevel temperatures, but at least some damaging wind potential may eventually be noted with storms expected along the cold front. This front is expected to push offshore by Tue/D8, with lessening threat of severe storms.

[tron777]

Very early in the game for Monday but here is what the SPC has to say atm



Mon/D7 as the upper trough moves toward the Great Lakes, and a surface boundary trails southwestward into the lower MS Valley. Here, a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely remain, beneath 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies which will mean a larger component of the deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary. Instability will be less by this time owing to relatively warmer midlevel temperatures, but at least some damaging wind potential may eventually be noted with storms expected along the cold front. This front is expected to push offshore by Tue/D8, with lessening threat of severe storms.

18Z GFS was a bit later with the cold frontal passage for this system around Monday evening or so. We know this will change of course between now and then but anyway our next window. I think the SPC may issue a Day 4-6 Outlook at some point for us if the trends hold.

[Bgoney]

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[Bgoney]

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[tron777]

Pretty sad in regards to the above images but it is what it is and we can't change it. Enjoy the warm weather despite the wind the next few days. We look to end Feb with a bang potentially on Monday with regards to possible severe wx chances. Then we'll be into March after that tracking either more spring or perhaps one last gasp for winter, esp come mid month. As usual my expectations are low on the wintry side and for good reason. You know my thoughts. You know Bgoney's thoughts. Surprised we did not hear from Tim today so hopefully he'll lend an ear when his time permits.

[Bgoney]

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[tpweather]

Good Morning and little light rain this morning. Had time to look over many things across the world and trying to put the pieces together of the current set up and how things may shake out once we hit March. Mother Nature is always balancing the earths weather and this winter she has been very busy. The warmth in the south is near records in many areas and the southeast and south-central ridge are very strong. Why is it so strong and I went looking to our friends in South America. Record breaking cold in Chile and Argentina and we are talking summer down there so in terms of weather its like late August. We also had the record cold in Antarctica in late January. The cold in SA makes sense and pushes summertime warmth even further north than normal and we are seeing this in the southern USA. Sure we get these ridges to form every winter but this is not the norm and explains the warmth.

Eastern Europe has been cold much of February and when this happen we tend to be milder and that has been the case in February. January started out mild for them and finished colder. Usually when eastern Europe is cold so is the western USA and that has played true this winter though I will admit the period earlier in winter when California got tons of rain was out of the norm for the pattern.Hawaii has been hit with very heavy rainfall and heavy snows in the mountains and though this usually happens once or twice in the winter this was near records in terms of rain and snow for a short period. New Zealand getting hit with a very strong typhoon and yes they get tropical systems but the one over the past week or so has been one of the strongest in their history.

Sure there are many things I am missing and one last comment about what has happened is the storm in the mid-west. The Minneapolis NWS is calling the current system historic you know it means business.

Big takeaway for me is several areas getting hit hard around the same time in different parts of the world and Mother Nature will correct this by changing up the patterns.

Looking at the future which I will deal with the month of March. I expect the NAO to go negative which helps the east coast getting colder.What we need here though is the AO to go negative as well and this helps us when both are negative especially later in the winter. I believe both will turn negative next month and this will push troughs that have been out west into the eastern 1/3 of the country. The snow pack to the north and northwest will be huge early in March as cold fronts will not lose much of its cold air because the land is filled with snow. This will help bring colder air into the Ohio Valley and points east of here.

Will it snow and again I believe if this new pattern sets up the way I see it happening then the chances of getting winter weather will be greater than normal for March. My guess we will have systems that bring both rain and snow and just need to see what each storm brings. Colder than normal imo is going to happen but how much below normal is hard to predict just like the past two months where temps have been so far above normal.

The trend this season is for warmth to last several weeks and cold to last several days and I believe that will change next month with cold lasting several weeks and warmth several days. Just taking a guess here but temps will probably end up running 4-6 degrees below normal for the month and precip will probably be average imo.

February was a big bust on my part and though we started out cold it was not long before we ended up staying mild most of the month. Only time will tell but I am a big believer of mother nature balancing things out Hopefully by this time next week signs of the colder air will be in the models time period and give us at least some hope of a last gasp of winter before we wait until next November.

[Bgoney]

Tim, good to hear from you. I think we're fairly close in the temp regime for March. Ive only gone out to the 15th with near to slightly below normal . After that , the potential is there for more cold depending on how the SSW works for or against our region .

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! Glad to get your take on things! I still am not excited about the first week of March. But, there are some interesting things going on by the 2nd week that may set us up by mid March. I'll post a link below to CB's overnight blog post.

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=58445

Check out the maps he has posted from the EPS showing the AO, NAO, and EPO going negative by the 2nd week and the trough out West taking over more of the country with a coast to coast look by the 2nd week as well. This is still a couple of weeks away from developing but definitely worth watching for sure.

[tron777]

For now... Looks like the warm front has come thru so temps will rise and the winds will get going later this morning. We are still looking at breaking two record highs as well. Rain / t-storms will return by this evening as the cold front pushes in and then washes out over the area. Windy and warm tomorrow. Thinking 74 or 74 is doable at CVG.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and good to see the models at least showing something is in the works. My worst fear is we see so many days in the upper 30's to mid 40's with rainfall and folks to the northeast finally get slammed. The northeast could really get rocked in March as the ocean temps are well above normal for this time of year and lake effect snows could be a big player next month as well. To get those lake effect snows of course the lakes are not frozen but you need an extended period of winds flowing over the lakes. Getting the -NAO will help so systems slow down and many times a big low over southeast Canada that sits and rotates and you get these spokes of energy that come west and then south before returning northeast. Exactly where is way to early to forecast but at least that keeps us cold and at least a chance of some snow. Never easy to get snows in March and some years the pattern is so bad that you are lucky to get temps below 32 but this March does look cold and we just need a little luck.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and good to see the models at least showing something is in the works. My worst fear is we see so many days in the upper 30's to mid 40's with rainfall and folks to the northeast finally get slammed. The northeast could really get rocked in March as the ocean temps are well above normal for this time of year and lake effect snows could be a big player next month as well. To get those lake effect snows of course the lakes are not frozen but you need an extended period of winds flowing over the lakes. Getting the -NAO will help so systems slow down and many times a big low over southeast Canada that sits and rotates and you get these spokes of energy that come west and then south before returning northeast. Exactly where is way to early to forecast but at least that keeps us cold and at least a chance of some snow. Never easy to get snows in March and some years the pattern is so bad that you are lucky to get temps below 32 but this March does look cold and we just need a little luck.

Tim, I think we are all on the same page with regards to the -NAO helping New England more so then us and that is usually the case anyway. We need the Aleutian Ridge to be more poleward and further to the East to weaken the persistent -PNA that has the southern ridge on steroids! We've got to see the Pacific pattern change period or nothing on the wintry side will occur for us. It'll be rain and t-storm action instead like we've already been seeing.

MJO is in Phase 7 as of 2/20 per the Aussies but it has made a move towards Phase 8, however, it is at a much weaker amplitude. I think it's headed for the COD personally as most guidance shows. Then, it comes back out into Phase 7 for the first week of March then if the some of the guidance is right, including the Euro, Phase 8 for week 2. We could really use that kind of help. Then, does the SSW which occurred on 2/16, what does that do? We should see its impacts on the pattern by mid March also. Despite the lack of snow here locally for our forum coverage area, there is still much to talk about going forward. Again, watching Monday of next week for our next potential window for strong to severe storms to end February.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and I believe we are already seeing signs of the Aleutian Ridge breaking down. May take a week to 10 days but from what I am seeing weather wise this looks to be happening already and will end up changing the pna so it becomes more neutral or even slightly positive over time. Should see a flip in the models over the next few days imo and two items the pna and ao should see the biggest changes in the models.

[tron777]

Great Post Les and I believe we are already seeing signs of the Aleutian Ridge breaking down. May take a week to 10 days but from what I am seeing weather wise this looks to be happening already and will end up changing the pna so it becomes more neutral or even slightly positive over time. Should see a flip in the models over the next few days imo and two items the pna and ao should see the biggest changes in the models.

At this time per the latest data, the PNA is still negative but looks to be rising towards neutral perhaps for Week 2 in March. That is currently what I am seeing. We'll need to keep an eye on that for sure.

[tron777]

[tron777]

Per BG's video, he is also highlighting the 2nd week of March for a period of below avg temps. Maybe this will be our window to score something? We'll just have to wait and see of course. By then, avg temps are in the 50s at CVG for highs, so for snowfall we would certainly need to be in that 15 to 20 degree below avg range for snow to occur. If the air is arctic in nature and as you said earlier Tim, the snow cover to our north and west will not allow the air mass to modify as much as it typically would. We'll see... Hopefully the models will show something for us to track in the next 10-14 days. Until then, whatcha see is whatcha get.

[tron777]

CVG has jumped up to 62 as of 11am. Starting to see some sun breaks now IMBY which will aide in getting the wind going this afternoon.

[airwolf76]

Per BG's video, he is also highlighting the 2nd week of March for a period of below avg temps. Maybe this will be our window to score something? We'll just have to wait and see of course. By then, avg temps are in the 50s at CVG for highs, so for snowfall we would certainly need to be in that 15 to 20 degree below avg range for snow to occur. If the air is arctic in nature and as you said earlier Tim, the snow cover to our north and west will not allow the air mass to modify as much as it typically would. We'll see... Hopefully the models will show something for us to track in the next 10-14 days. Until then, whatcha see is whatcha get.

Maybe a March to remember coming ? maybe a March blizzard ? you had one in 2008 if im not mistaken. its anybodys guess at this point but the pattern coming is better then what we have and have had the last 2 months. I expect to see something next month but I dont know what yet.

[tron777]

Per BG's video, he is also highlighting the 2nd week of March for a period of below avg temps. Maybe this will be our window to score something? We'll just have to wait and see of course. By then, avg temps are in the 50s at CVG for highs, so for snowfall we would certainly need to be in that 15 to 20 degree below avg range for snow to occur. If the air is arctic in nature and as you said earlier Tim, the snow cover to our north and west will not allow the air mass to modify as much as it typically would. We'll see... Hopefully the models will show something for us to track in the next 10-14 days. Until then, whatcha see is whatcha get.

Maybe a March to remember coming ? maybe a March blizzard ? you had one in 2008 if im not mistaken. its anybodys guess at this point but the pattern coming is better then what we have and have had the last 2 months. I expect to see something next month but I dont know what yet.

Yes Sir... it was March 7-8, 2008. We had a true Apps Runner that ran up the spine of the Apps which is so rare when you have cold air in place in the 20s. We need that again in our lives. Anyway, the pattern could also be one where lows run up into the Ohio Valley then re-develop off the East Coast to nail your area. What form does the pattern take is a big question for sure.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and what a climb in temps in a short period. I was outside pruning the trees and when I started it was cool but not bad and when I finished shorts were needed. Always that sudden wave of warmth that wears me down but made it through and all the trees are finished. I did get a few angry birds mad at me but I have lived here longer so I win lol. Saw Brian's video and very happy with what he is seeing down the road and especially the PV and that we may see an extended period of below normal temps.

Windy as we know over the next few days and then we wait for the next system on Monday. I was somewhat concerned about severe chances and still that may happen but need to see how the low takes shape and if it is pushed a little further south compared to what models show because of the extensive snow pack to the northwest.

After that system one more and that looks to be one like Brian mentioned that could really change the pattern as blocking gets going to the northeast of us.