Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 9:53 am
Polar vortex status
The SPV is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA5 record!!!
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -9.4 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: -9.1 m/s 2018
Screenshot_20230217-094246_Chrome.jpg
Still no signs of reversal into the troposphere but a prolonged reversal in the stratosphere. So to me this will remain a displacement and not a split and so probably the effects at ground level will be delayed to the back half of March into April
Thanks for posting this! Pretty much what I was thinking as well. By then, you are fighting climo anyway so yeah. I think we're on the right track with our thinking as painful as it is for me to type this.
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 9:53 am
Polar vortex status
The SPV is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA5 record!!!
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -9.4 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: -9.1 m/s 2018
Screenshot_20230217-094246_Chrome.jpg
Still no signs of reversal into the troposphere but a prolonged reversal in the stratosphere. So to me this will remain a displacement and not a split and so probably the effects at ground level will be delayed to the back half of March into April
Thanks for posting this! Pretty much what I was thinking as well. By then, you are fighting climo anyway so yeah. I think we're on the right track with our thinking as painful as it is for me to type this.
The -PNA is our biggest foe going Forward and its downstream effects. It matures these 4 corner/panhandle hooker type lows at to high latitude. Even if we see a -NAO, if that isn't abnormally strong it won't help.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 9:53 am
Polar vortex status
The SPV is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA5 record!!!
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -9.4 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: -9.1 m/s 2018
Screenshot_20230217-094246_Chrome.jpg
Still no signs of reversal into the troposphere but a prolonged reversal in the stratosphere. So to me this will remain a displacement and not a split and so probably the effects at ground level will be delayed to the back half of March into April
Thanks for posting this! Pretty much what I was thinking as well. By then, you are fighting climo anyway so yeah. I think we're on the right track with our thinking as painful as it is for me to type this.
The -PNA is our biggest foe going Forward and its downstream effects. It matures these 4 corner/panhandle hooker type lows at to high latitude. Even if we see a -NAO, if that isn't abnormally strong it won't help.
I agree and to add, my concern about the -NAO is will it retrograde far enough west into Greenland or Baffin Island to suppress the SE ridge enough? Currently, my thinking is no since the -PNA continues to drive the bus.
This upcoming pattern is going to be a huge benefit to the drought areas out west and in the northern plains , plenty of snow chances for an extended period , so that is great news for them
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
my 10 day shows signs of the pattern breaking down. more cold and snow chances the last 5 days of the month. law of averages tells me March will probably be avg or slightly below avg temps. we will see.
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 10:35 am
my 10 day shows signs of the pattern breaking down. more cold and snow chances the last 5 days of the month. law of averages tells me March will probably be avg or slightly below avg temps. we will see.
Good luck Charles! I think March will continue the roller coaster ride we've been on and could easily skew warmer then avg for the Ohio Valley. Above normal rainfall is a lock.
Flurries being spotted here in Amelia..
1.75 inches of rain..
Going out soon to load up more firewood for the homestead. The only problem is I have
3 of the 5 Great Lakes in my side yard that I will have to drive through. Was going to load up
On wood a couple days ago, but had a relapse of my “sometimers brain” and forgot…
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 10:35 am
my 10 day shows signs of the pattern breaking down. more cold and snow chances the last 5 days of the month. law of averages tells me March will probably be avg or slightly below avg temps. we will see.
Good luck Charles! I think March will continue the roller coaster ride we've been on and could easily skew warmer then avg for the Ohio Valley. Above normal rainfall is a lock.
nothing is a lock you cant assume anything 3/ 4 weeks from now. however your right we will need some luck at least since it will be March. Im not saying the overall theme may not be much different then the last 2 months but probably will have more small windows open up to score late in the game .
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 10:28 am
This upcoming pattern is going to be a huge benefit to the drought areas out west and in the northern plains , plenty of snow chances for an extended period , so that is great news for them
Great Post and this is exactly how the west plays out. They can go years with well below normal rainfall and then boom a few years of heavy rains. Completely different pattern then we see locally as we tend to get plenty of rainfall every year and once in awhile we have a mini-drought. The problem is not the amount of rain they get out there because that has not changed over the years but how the extremes from one year to the next is the problem and since the 1940's when Hollywood came into being so many folks have left and many from the central and southern plains because of the drought of the 1930's and moved to lovely southern California and the population is too big for the average amount of rainfall they do get and having several years in a row makes it even more of a problem.
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 10:35 am
my 10 day shows signs of the pattern breaking down. more cold and snow chances the last 5 days of the month. law of averages tells me March will probably be avg or slightly below avg temps. we will see.
Good luck Charles! I think March will continue the roller coaster ride we've been on and could easily skew warmer then avg for the Ohio Valley. Above normal rainfall is a lock.
nothing is a lock you cant assume anything 3/ 4 weeks from now. however your right we will need some luck at least since it will be March. Im not saying the overall theme may not be much different then the last 2 months but probably will have more small windows open up to score late in the game .
I agree we're going to need some luck. I've been saying that for days and the little windows will be short lived and will get shorter as we move thru the month of March due to climo. I do think it is a lock for above normal rainfall. Ensemble Guidance continues to show well above normal rainfall for the Ohio Valley with the majority of the snowfall well North and NW of the area. With the -PNA showing no signs of stopping, that will keep the trough locked in out West and continued storms tracking NW of this area. Severe wx will be a real concern. We've already been seeing it and it's still technically winter.
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 10:28 am
This upcoming pattern is going to be a huge benefit to the drought areas out west and in the northern plains , plenty of snow chances for an extended period , so that is great news for them
Great Post and this is exactly how the west plays out. They can go years with well below normal rainfall and then boom a few years of heavy rains. Completely different pattern then we see locally as we tend to get plenty of rainfall every year and once in awhile we have a mini-drought. The problem is not the amount of rain they get out there because that has not changed over the years but how the extremes from one year to the next is the problem and since the 1940's when Hollywood came into being so many folks have left and many from the central and southern plains because of the drought of the 1930's and moved to lovely southern California and the population is too big for the average amount of rainfall they do get and having several years in a row makes it even more of a problem.
I'm also in agreement. They need it for sure because there will be a time once again that we see a persistent +PNA pattern so they will need the moisture that is currently building up to get them through the drier times.
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 10:35 am
my 10 day shows signs of the pattern breaking down. more cold and snow chances the last 5 days of the month. law of averages tells me March will probably be avg or slightly below avg temps. we will see.
Good luck Charles! I think March will continue the roller coaster ride we've been on and could easily skew warmer then avg for the Ohio Valley. Above normal rainfall is a lock.
nothing is a lock you cant assume anything 3/ 4 weeks from now. however your right we will need some luck at least since it will be March. Im not saying the overall theme may not be much different then the last 2 months but probably will have more small windows open up to score late in the game .
I agree we're going to need some luck. I've been saying that for days and the little windows will be short lived and will get shorter as we move thru the month of March due to climo. I do think it is a lock for above normal rainfall. Ensemble Guidance continues to show well above normal rainfall for the Ohio Valley with the majority of the snowfall well North and NW of the area. With the -PNA showing no signs of stopping, that will keep the trough locked in out West and continued storms tracking NW of this area. Severe wx will be a real concern. We've already been seeing it and it's still technically winter.
What I don't like though is a milder Feb especially in the south can end up with them not getting enough rain in the early spring which in turn can cause more heat in late Spring and that can spread quickly once we get into June and July. Normally in later May and June folks in the south rainfall is much more scattered until either you get the monsoon season in the southwest or the tropical season heats up over the GOM and Atlantic. Only place really in the south that does okay during that time is Florida with the winds coming from both coasts helping ignite showers and thundershowers.
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 10:35 am
my 10 day shows signs of the pattern breaking down. more cold and snow chances the last 5 days of the month. law of averages tells me March will probably be avg or slightly below avg temps. we will see.
Good luck Charles! I think March will continue the roller coaster ride we've been on and could easily skew warmer then avg for the Ohio Valley. Above normal rainfall is a lock.
nothing is a lock you cant assume anything 3/ 4 weeks from now. however your right we will need some luck at least since it will be March. Im not saying the overall theme may not be much different then the last 2 months but probably will have more small windows open up to score late in the game .
I agree we're going to need some luck. I've been saying that for days and the little windows will be short lived and will get shorter as we move thru the month of March due to climo. I do think it is a lock for above normal rainfall. Ensemble Guidance continues to show well above normal rainfall for the Ohio Valley with the majority of the snowfall well North and NW of the area. With the -PNA showing no signs of stopping, that will keep the trough locked in out West and continued storms tracking NW of this area. Severe wx will be a real concern. We've already been seeing it and it's still technically winter.
What I don't like though is a milder Feb especially in the south can end up with them not getting enough rain in the early spring which in turn can cause more heat in late Spring and that can spread quickly once we get into June and July. Normally in later May and June folks in the south rainfall is much more scattered until either you get the monsoon season in the southwest or the tropical season heats up over the GOM and Atlantic. Only place really in the south that does okay during that time is Florida with the winds coming from both coasts helping ignite showers and thundershowers.
Great post Tim! We will need to see how persistent the Gulf ridge is for sure as we go thru the next couple of months. We had better hope it breaks down because if it doesn't, we could be in for a hot summer. La Nina lag effects with the transition to Nino. An El Nino summer can be cooler then avg for us with a below avg hurricane season but we are coming off of a 3 year Nina so you know it will have tremendous lag effects in the atmosphere. Remember the SOI? It is still very positive so La Nina, despite it decaying it is absolutely still in control. We need to see the Aleutian Ridge breakdown too. So far, that feature isn't going anywhere. Another aspect of La Nina.
Good luck Charles! I think March will continue the roller coaster ride we've been on and could easily skew warmer then avg for the Ohio Valley. Above normal rainfall is a lock.
nothing is a lock you cant assume anything 3/ 4 weeks from now. however your right we will need some luck at least since it will be March. Im not saying the overall theme may not be much different then the last 2 months but probably will have more small windows open up to score late in the game .
I agree we're going to need some luck. I've been saying that for days and the little windows will be short lived and will get shorter as we move thru the month of March due to climo. I do think it is a lock for above normal rainfall. Ensemble Guidance continues to show well above normal rainfall for the Ohio Valley with the majority of the snowfall well North and NW of the area. With the -PNA showing no signs of stopping, that will keep the trough locked in out West and continued storms tracking NW of this area. Severe wx will be a real concern. We've already been seeing it and it's still technically winter.
What I don't like though is a milder Feb especially in the south can end up with them not getting enough rain in the early spring which in turn can cause more heat in late Spring and that can spread quickly once we get into June and July. Normally in later May and June folks in the south rainfall is much more scattered until either you get the monsoon season in the southwest or the tropical season heats up over the GOM and Atlantic. Only place really in the south that does okay during that time is Florida with the winds coming from both coasts helping ignite showers and thundershowers.I agree Les 100p/c and what may happen is a hot start to summer but maybe an nice cool autumn next season. I could see that playing out as well.
Great post Tim! We will need to see how persistent the Gulf ridge is for sure as we go thru the next couple of months. We had better hope it breaks down because if it doesn't, we could be in for a hot summer. La Nina lag effects with the transition to Nino. An El Nino summer can be cooler then avg for us with a below avg hurricane season but we are coming off of a 3 year Nina so you know it will have tremendous lag effects in the atmosphere. Remember the SOI? It is still very positive so La Nina, despite it decaying it is absolutely still in control. We need to see the Aleutian Ridge breakdown too. So far, that feature isn't going anywhere. Another aspect of La Nina.
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 2:05 pm
Exactly 100p/c correct Les. I could see a hot start to summer but we end up with a below normal temp in Autumn which would be a nice change of pace.
All speculative right now of course. We are going to need to see how long La Nina's impacts continue. Now, if we talk about the end of Feb into the early March period... I am seeing signs per the GEFS of the NAO getting stronger and potentially retrograding a bit more to the SW. IMO more work needs to be done for more positive impacts here locally but it's a start. A Scad. / Icelandic ridge is usually how a more sustainable NAO block forms anyway. So what I mean is, if this is legit , it could have a bit longer staying power then you'd otherwise expect. But at the same time, it is going to be fighting the -PNA as Bgoney and I have been discussing. So the two may just cancel each other out. We don't yet know. Let's get the -NAO in the 7 day and below period instead of fantasy range and then we can see how things stand.
First image is yesterday's 12Z GEFS Mean vs Today's. Watch the NAO domain.
GEFS NAO.gif
Second image is the period on today's 12Z GEFS from late Feb into early March. You can see the NAO block developing and actually retrograding to the SW. We need to see more of that and get it inside of 7 days to be believable.
GEFS NAO2.gif
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On the 12Z EPS, the -PNA isn't quite as strong in the extended range (vs 0Z run) so the Gulf Ridge is a bit more suppressed as a result. We certainly need to see how things transpire over the next 7 days for sure to see if what I am talking about in these last 2 posts has some legs or just more model BS.
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 2:55 pm
On the 12Z EPS, the -PNA isn't quite as strong in the extended range (vs 0Z run) so the Gulf Ridge is a bit more suppressed as a result. We certainly need to see how things transpire over the next 7 days for sure to see if what I am talking about in these last 2 posts has some legs or just more model BS.
Some wonderful posts Les. I believe you and bgoney have been doing a great job on how the pattern may play out.
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 2:55 pm
On the 12Z EPS, the -PNA isn't quite as strong in the extended range (vs 0Z run) so the Gulf Ridge is a bit more suppressed as a result. We certainly need to see how things transpire over the next 7 days for sure to see if what I am talking about in these last 2 posts has some legs or just more model BS.
Some wonderful posts Les. I believe you and bgoney have been doing a great job on how the pattern may play out.
I'm still not the least bit excited for snow chances or the pattern for the next few weeks. But my last few posts have at least been more positive then in recent days. Hope that trend continues. I'm with Doug... I'd like to get one more trackable event then we can wrap it up until November.
