February 2023 Discussion

[Robejoh76]

Anyone notice the haze in the air today or am I seeing good ol pollution. Just seems a bit early this time of year for smog.

[MVWxObserver]

Anyone notice the haze in the air today or am I seeing good ol pollution. Just seems a bit early this time of year for smog.

My eyes burned some this evening as I had my garage door up while preparing the curbside trash cart a day early before the storms roll in Thurs.

Currently 37 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

Anyone notice the haze in the air today or am I seeing good ol pollution. Just seems a bit early this time of year for smog.

My eyes burned some this evening as I had my garage door up while preparing the curbside trash cart a day early before the storms roll in Thurs.

Currently 37 here in G'ville.

That was caused by a controlled burn from the KY National Guard down in Central City, KY.

[tron777]

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
718 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

INC029-115-155-KYC015-037-077-117-OHC025-061-161530-
/O.NEW.KILN.FA.Y.0015.230216T1218Z-230216T1530Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dearborn IN-Ohio IN-Switzerland IN-Boone KY-Campbell KY-Gallatin KY-
Kenton KY-Clermont OH-Hamilton OH-
718 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky and
Southwest Ohio, including the following counties, in Southeast
Indiana, Dearborn, Ohio and Switzerland. In Northern Kentucky,
Boone, Campbell, Gallatin and Kenton. In Southwest Ohio, Clermont
and Hamilton.

* WHEN...Until 1030 AM EST.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Water over roadways.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 718 AM EST, radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is
ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area.
Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional
rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible.
- Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Cincinnati, Covington, Florence, Independence, Norwood,
Forest Park, Erlanger, Fort Thomas, Newport, Sharonville,
Blue Ash, Loveland, Springdale, Reading, Montgomery,
Harrison, North College Hill, Madeira, Edgewood and
Alexandria.

[tron777]

As you can see by the above flood advisory, 1 to 1.5" of rain has already fallen especially over NKY. Been getting hammered since about 5am this morning. Radar shows plenty more rain to come. This is good news as it may save us from the severe wx threat. We'll have to wait and see how things look by midday. We should know the answer by then. After this, 30s tomorrow with scattered snow showers and even a mix in some areas. No issues of course are expected. The weekend is dry with a warming trend. 50s and daily shower chances for Pres Day and really for the first half of next week with a stronger cold front coming sometime Wed night or early Thurs.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and looks like a busy day. Flood advisories will probably happen today but these are localized and probably only last a few hours when a heavier band moves through. Good thing is flooding on rivers is unlikely as no snow to melt which is usually a bigger concern as we head into spring. Showers and thundershowers are moving quickly and how much of a break and how much sunshine will determine the severe chances.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! A 1006 MB surface low over NE AR is headed NNE as it deepens towards the St. Louis area per latest pressure falls. I think we've got the low track down pat. The dynamics will be there this afternoon but will the instability or CAPE? We shall see! We'll probably get over 2" of rain down here by the time all is said and done.

[BookNerdCarp]

[tpweather]

Good morning Tim! A 1006 MB surface low over NE AR is headed NNE as it deepens towards the St. Louis area per latest pressure falls. I think we've got the low track down pat. The dynamics will be there this afternoon but will the instability or CAPE? We shall see! We'll probably get over 2" of rain down here by the time all is said and done.

Good Morning Les and I agree about the instability and or CAPE. I would normally say with this much rain in the morning its going to be hard to recover but this is a very unusual pattern for mid-Feb.

[cloudy72]

Good morning all! Been very busy so have not had much of a chance to talk with you guys. Very heavy rains here this morning and some thunder. I agree with the SPC pushing the highest SVR threat to our south. Latest 12z HRRR has not much if any instability this far north. Could see a rouge storm but I think the highest threat will be to our south. Depending on where that front lies this afternoon will be where the heaviest rains will fall and with the Flood Watch I think this is covered nicely by ILN.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! A 1006 MB surface low over NE AR is headed NNE as it deepens towards the St. Louis area per latest pressure falls. I think we've got the low track down pat. The dynamics will be there this afternoon but will the instability or CAPE? We shall see! We'll probably get over 2" of rain down here by the time all is said and done.

Good Morning Les and I agree about the instability and or CAPE. I would normally say with this much rain in the morning its going to be hard to recover but this is a very unusual pattern for mid-Feb.

Definitely Tim. A very odd pattern indeed but one that looks to continue unfortunately. I am watching the grass green up literally with the mild weather we've had and all the rain today. Seeing signs of spring IMBY and I'll be mowing in March at this rate. Ugh...

[tron777]

Here is the Flood Watch text that Mike mentioned for the Tri-state and points south. Also of note, we've all been taken out of the enhanced risk area and it's just a slight risk now. Best chance for severe is now Central KY on south. ATM, all of the clouds and rain could save the day as far as severe wx is concerned. I'd give it several more hours before declaring victory but the signs are certainly pointing in that direction at this time. Best CAPE and dews are currently aligned along the MS River Valley over Eastern AK, Western TN, and extreme Western KY.

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio,
including the following counties, in Southeast Indiana, Dearborn,
Ohio, Ripley and Switzerland. In Kentucky, Boone, Bracken,
Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Owen,
Pendleton and Robertson. In Ohio, Adams, Brown, Clermont,
Hamilton, Highland, Pike, Ross and Scioto.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Repeating rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms may
result in 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with locally higher
amounts possible.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Been very busy so have not had much of a chance to talk with you guys. Very heavy rains here this morning and some thunder. I agree with the SPC pushing the highest SVR threat to our south. Latest 12z HRRR has not much if any instability this far north. Could see a rouge storm but I think the highest threat will be to our south. Depending on where that front lies this afternoon will be where the heaviest rains will fall and with the Flood Watch I think this is covered nicely by ILN.

Glad to see you back posting Mike! Can you do something to give us some snow before spring fully takes over?

[tpweather]

Good morning Tim! A 1006 MB surface low over NE AR is headed NNE as it deepens towards the St. Louis area per latest pressure falls. I think we've got the low track down pat. The dynamics will be there this afternoon but will the instability or CAPE? We shall see! We'll probably get over 2" of rain down here by the time all is said and done.

Good Morning Les and I agree about the instability and or CAPE. I would normally say with this much rain in the morning its going to be hard to recover but this is a very unusual pattern for mid-Feb.

Definitely Tim. A very odd pattern indeed but one that looks to continue unfortunately. I am watching the grass green up literally with the mild weather we've had and all the rain today. Seeing signs of spring IMBY and I'll be mowing in March at this rate. Ugh...

Rather wild Les, down here in SC we have the Bermuda grass and its in the dormant stage. I thought more trees would be blooming and my guess is in the next week or two we will see that down here, I need to get my mower ready and not a fan of starting that in March. I see almost 2 inches has fallen in Northern Kentucky. Looks like the front is south of the local area though the front seems to be working north once again and this can cause more rainfall into early afternoon but will no doubt hamper severe weather.

[tron777]

12Z NAM gets SE IN and NKY counties to 200-300 J/KG of CAPE with the better instability of 500+ down by LOU. SE of I-71 and Northern posters don't see much instability at all. In our forum coverage area locations SW of Cincinnati have the best chance at this point.

[tron777]

Update in progress from BG:

[tpweather]

12Z NAM gets SE IN and NKY counties to 200-300 J/KG of CAPE with the better instability of 500+ down by LOU. SE of I-71 and Northern posters don't see much instability at all. In our forum coverage area locations SW of Cincinnati have the best chance at this point.

That really makes sense Les since they had the rainfall earlier and time to recover some but even down there I am not sure how much severe weather will happen down there as the radar is trying to already bring rains back into that area which would hold the severe weather down.

[cloudy72]

Rainfall of 0.92" here thus far.

[cloudy72]

Can you do something to give us some snow before spring fully takes over?

It certainly doesn't look very promising Les!

[tron777]

1.82" as of 10am at CVG.

[tron777]

Skies are a little brighter now IMBY but no sun breaks or anything. Overcast is still very solid per visible satellite. Monitoring radar out of Paducah and Evansville, IN and rain / storms in this area will impact the area later this afternoon so we're not done with the rain yet until the front passes. In terms of severe wx, warm front has not yet moved north of CVG as we still have E winds. Temp and dew are both at 52. Crittenden has E winds but Owenton has SSW winds so the warm front is located SW of Cincinnati somewhere between here and Owen Co KY as of 11am. Checked KY Mesonet sites and Carroll Co has ENE winds, but Oldham Co has SE winds.

[tron777]

This pattern keeps repeating. Early next week, we get a weak system again with light rain with a stronger system to keep an eye on per the latest 12Z OP GFS run by Thursday of next week then turning colder again behind that system. May have to watch for strong to severe storms again with that one. It's the same ole song and dance that we've seen for the past several weeks.

[tron777]

Latest SPC update has us in a marginal risk now with the slight risk south of our CWA and the enhanced risk down into TN. Outside of something isolated occurring, it appears we are going to be dodging a huge bullet for today.

[tpweather]

Skies are a little brighter now IMBY but no sun breaks or anything. Overcast is still very solid per visible satellite. Monitoring radar out of Paducah and Evansville, IN and rain / storms in this area will impact the area later this afternoon so we're not done with the rain yet until the front passes. In terms of severe wx, warm front has not yet moved north of CVG as we still have E winds. Temp and dew are both at 52. Crittenden has E winds but Owenton has SSW winds so the warm front is located SW of Cincinnati somewhere between here and Owen Co KY as of 11am. Checked KY Mesonet sites and Carroll Co has ENE winds, but Oldham Co has SE winds.

Les I believe severe weather locally is going to be hard to achieve. Sure some heavy rain this afternoon as we see that west of Louisville and sure can get a clap of thunder but even further south dew points remain in the 50's as the rainfall did push temps down several degrees.

[Sawdoggie]

it looks like we might be flying a little blind... both KILN and TCVG are currently down.