February 2023 Discussion

[Bgoney]

Dont see any changes in the long range. Same pattern holds to the 24th, then it appears we at least see closer to normal temps going into the last 4 days of Feb. Thank goodness it appears the MJO will quickly move through 5/6, but we still see the lag effects from those phases .

[Closet Meteorologist]

Can you translate this for us novices?

The tweet is talking about the Stratospheric Warming Event (SSW) event we've been discussing on here for the last few weeks. The Polar Vortex (PV) is weakening due to warming in the stratosphere in the Arctic region. If the winds reverse direction then the PV could split. There are different layers in the atmosphere if you remember that from high school earth science class. We need that warming to work down from the stratosphere into the troposphere for us to see impacts where we live at the surface. We won't know until early or mid March most likely if it has the desired effects for snow lovers. Blocking returns in March and a delayed spring would be likely. There are no guarantees of course. These SSW events don't always go our way so at this point, we are in watch and wait mode. I will say this... if the MJO also gets into the colder phases, which it is forecast to do after Pres. Day then we may have something to work with late in the winter season.

Alright then. Thanks!

[tron777]

Good morning all and Happy Super Bowl Sunday! A gorgeous day to fire up the grill or have a party for the big game this evening! Go Eagles! (For obvious reasons)

So anyway, the forecast going forward is pretty straight forward. A weak system Tues night then all eyes are on Thursday. The SPC has expanded the severe threat area for Day 5 as you can see below.


day5prob.gif


The timing of the cold front will be critical to see how much heating we can get as well as CAPE. In the colder months you don't need as much CAPE as you would during the spring and especially the summer months. The dynamics are most certainly going to be there with some guidance showing 75 knot wind shear 200-300 J/kg of CAPE and decent 0-3KM helicity values of 400!

Going to be interesting to see what the NAM puts out once in range

Yeah... it'll probably have some ominous soundings for us to look at.

[tron777]

Dont see any changes in the long range. Same pattern holds to the 24th, then it appears we at least see closer to normal temps going into the last 4 days of Feb. Thank goodness it appears the MJO will quickly move through 5/6, but we still see the lag effects from those phases .

The pattern is loaded with storm systems too. We may face more severe wx threats if the storm track doesn't change. Of course the 12Z GFS today has a fantasy snow storm again around the 23rd but of course I am not buying it. I do think that possibility comes in March though.

[tron777]

GFS and CMC are definitely weaker / more east with the low track for Thurs. Will be interesting to see what the Euro does later. CMC also looks interesting by Day 10 for snow lovers.

[Bgoney]

GFS and CMC are definitely weaker / more east with the low track for Thurs. Will be interesting to see what the Euro does later. CMC also looks interesting by Day 10 for snow lovers.

6z EU was weaker also . GEFS also coming in weaker so definitely a trend.

[tron777]

The Euro wasn't as bad as the others for Thurs as far as the weakness goes but not as robust either as previous runs. The model has another severe wx maker in the extended range so the Euro is not buying the colder look at this time.

[Bgoney]

The snow in the smokies is even a dud for most, only the highest elevations seeing sloppy wet snow when the qpf is heavy enough, other wise it's a mix or plain rain.
Current temps

current_temps.png

[Bgoney]

12z EPS 500mb and 850 anomalies through the 26th

7AC7029A-E303-4E76-B6AB-C8A109F4CC21.gif.98801ad67418bac9c431c203e9d8899b.gif

4DB9357B-F31F-4A96-A051-6F9F67F62550.gif.a0d389cda4e7c19ae5339b8552facc0c.gif

[tron777]

Not the best look but we'll see I suppose.

[MVWxObserver]

Congratulations KC Chiefs!!

Currently at the freezing mark here in G'ville.

[tron777]

Good morning all! No changes from the SPC for the new Day 4 Outlook for Thursday. Models seem to be in decent agreement now with the low pressure track thru N IN. Models differ on the timing of the frontal passage so that's what will need to get nailed down first so then we can see where the best severe wx parameters set up. Before we get there, look for a nice day today! Winds pick up Tues and Wed with that Tues night shower chance still there (but not a big deal rainfall wise at all). Thurs is the big day then we cool off on Friday and warm right back up again this weekend going into next week with more 50s and 60s likely. Sure hope we can shake this pattern or we'll be in trouble with severe wx IMO once spring truly comes.

[tron777]

The MJO is really moving quickly now thank goodness! As of 2/11 per the Aussies, it was already midway thru Phase 5 so at that speed, the MJO could be in Phase 6 by now. Guidance is split with some models getting it into Phase 7 then the neutral circle and others get it to Phase 8 then the neutral circle. It'll make a difference to see how far south and east the cold air can get later this month and into March. Seeing some small attempts esp on the GEFS of a possible -NAO trying to form via a Scand. Ridge by the end of the month. Buyer beware of course at this range naturally.

[tron777]

12Z NAM has a round of heavy rain very early in the morning with the warm front. Then it is showing a frontal passage around that 3-5pm range for the area on Thurs. The model generates 500 J/KG of SB CAPE. Decent lapse rates too esp NW of Cincinnati. Helicity isn't bad either in the 200-300 range. Bulk shear is nice around 70 knots. This isn't off the charts or anything for severe wx parameters but enough for severe wx to certainly be possible. Below is the sounding near CVG:

NAM Sounding.png

[tron777]

12Z GFS Sounding for Thurs afternoon near CVG and this model is in good agreement with what the NAM was showing.

GFS Sounding.png

[tron777]

12Z Euro continues to be the slowest model with the frontal passage not occurring until Thurs evening with a deeper low over NE Indiana versus the other models which are a bit weaker and faster with the front. CAPE looks to be in the 250-500 J/KG range. Wish I had access to grab a Euro sounding but I don't.

[tron777]

Rainfall amounts from this system at CVG range from about 1.25" (NAM) 1.75" (GFS) and 0.98" (Euro).

[tron777]

59 as of 4pm at CVG.... Temps were definitely warmer today then models showed with ample sunshine and a dry airmass in place. Should see similar temps tomorrow despite increasing clouds as the southerly flow and WAA begins to kick in ahead of the first weak system then we soar to 70 on Wed with more breezy conditions. Then we await our fate for Thursday.

[tron777]

LOU has already issued a wind advisory for their counties for tomorrow. We shall see if ILN does anything.

[tron777]

Records for Wednesday:

CVG - 73 set back in 1945
DAY - 69 set back in 1954
CMH - 70 set back in 1954

[tron777]

New Euro Weeklies are out and they show mild weather thru the end of Feb and colder for the first 2 weeks in March. A -NAO and a +PNA actually develop. Now, due to the trends we have seen all winter, a +PNA is not likely to occur. However, the Scand. / Icelandic ridging, should it retrograde westward far enough into the NAO Domain then a -NAO would be very possible. We did have NAO blocking back in December with that frigid cold shot so we know blocking in that area can happen even if the +PNA doesn't. The -NAO would certainly help get the cold air more south and east especially with a broader PV over Hudson's Bay and the potential for the MJO to be in Phase 8 as well would also lend a helping hand. Again, low confidence and there is plenty of reason to be skeptical. However, at the same time, a nice gradient pattern is possible later this month and esp into March and if the baroclinic boundary is south of us, we can certainly cash in a time or two before spring. We've got to see some changes occur for sure or the pattern will be wet with a lot of severe wx should we continue down the current road we are on. See this coming Thursday as an example.

[Bgoney]

New Euro Weeklies are out and they show mild weather thru the end of Feb and colder for the first 2 weeks in March. A -NAO and a +PNA actually develop. Now, due to the trends we have seen all winter, a +PNA is not likely to occur. However, the Scand. / Icelandic ridging, should it retrograde westward far enough into the NAO Domain then a -NAO would be very possible. We did have NAO blocking back in December with that frigid cold shot so we know blocking in that area can happen even if the +PNA doesn't. The -NAO would certainly help get the cold air more south and east especially with a broader PV over Hudson's Bay and the potential for the MJO to be in Phase 8 as well would also lend a helping hand. Again, low confidence and there is plenty of reason to be skeptical. However, at the same time, a nice gradient pattern is possible later this month and esp into March and if the baroclinic boundary is south of us, we can certainly cash in a time or two before spring. We've got to see some changes occur for sure or the pattern will be wet with a lot of severe wx should we continue down the current road we are on. See this coming Thursday as an example.

That sums it up, but those are big changes that need to happen. I'm still hopeful the MJO is going to get through 7 and possibly enter 8. Just moving into 7 at moderate strength can help push the baroclinic zone a bit south , but I don't think it would be enough for us along the river, more a I 70 benefit and this would be the last few days of Feb. Possibly. If it can move Into 8 it should help with a better EPO and I think it would benefit all the OV with better chances at winter, especially with a shift in the low track

[tron777]

New Euro Weeklies are out and they show mild weather thru the end of Feb and colder for the first 2 weeks in March. A -NAO and a +PNA actually develop. Now, due to the trends we have seen all winter, a +PNA is not likely to occur. However, the Scand. / Icelandic ridging, should it retrograde westward far enough into the NAO Domain then a -NAO would be very possible. We did have NAO blocking back in December with that frigid cold shot so we know blocking in that area can happen even if the +PNA doesn't. The -NAO would certainly help get the cold air more south and east especially with a broader PV over Hudson's Bay and the potential for the MJO to be in Phase 8 as well would also lend a helping hand. Again, low confidence and there is plenty of reason to be skeptical. However, at the same time, a nice gradient pattern is possible later this month and esp into March and if the baroclinic boundary is south of us, we can certainly cash in a time or two before spring. We've got to see some changes occur for sure or the pattern will be wet with a lot of severe wx should we continue down the current road we are on. See this coming Thursday as an example.

That sums it up, but those are big changes that need to happen. I'm still hopeful the MJO is going to get through 7 and possibly enter 8. Just moving into 7 at moderate strength can help push the baroclinic zone a bit south , but I don't think it would be enough for us along the river, more a I 70 benefit and this would be the last few days of Feb. Possibly. If it can move Into 8 it should help with a better EPO and I think it would benefit all the OV with better chances at winter, especially with a shift in the low track

I agree. Phase 7 would be better for our northern posters where we need 8 down in CVG Land. If and this is a big if, but if the -NAO were to develop that would certainly help to shift the storm track further south along with the phase 8 of the MJO. I'm not banking on the +PNA whatsoever but the -EPO if it's more poleward instead of a flatter Aleutian style ridge that we've been seeing would also assist.

[snowbo]

A little off topic. Just checked in to the Bay Mills casino overlooking Whitefish Bay on Lake Superior. Talked to the lady at registration and she said “the weather is supposed to get really bad! It’s supposed to get above freezing!” It’s all in your perspective!

[tron777]

A little off topic. Just checked in to the Bay Mills casino overlooking Whitefish Bay on Lake Superior. Talked to the lady at registration and she said “the weather is supposed to get really bad! It’s supposed to get above freezing!” It’s all in your perspective!

Yes Sir! The UP has always had a different climate even vs the the Lower Peninsula.