February 2023 Discussion

[tron777]

Good morning Tim... nice post and summary! We are watching the MJO and PV as we've discussed over the last page or two of this thread to see what happens for later on in this month and as we head into March. Spring fever is probably already in the air and on peoples mind sets since this winter has been so mild. But I've lived here a long time just as you have and one thing we have seen a lot of is spring tries to take hold but winter has one last trick or two up its sleeve. We shall see as usual.

[tpweather]

Good morning Tim... nice post and summary! We are watching the MJO and PV as we've discussed over the last page or two of this thread to see what happens for later on in this month and as we head into March. Spring fever is probably already in the air and on peoples mind sets since this winter has been so mild. But I've lived here a long time just as you have and one thing we have seen a lot of is spring tries to take hold but winter has one last trick or two up its sleeve. We shall see as usual.

Good Morning Les and you are correct about getting spring to take hold around here. The PV is a wild card even if it splits as we know. The mjo is moving but we are talking going through phases 4-6 in the next 10 days and hopefully it continue into phases 7-1 but again another wild card as we have seen these waves die before really getting into the colder phases. Must say I am looking forward to a few years of El Nino and though a strong one can get us really mild but that has happen with this La Nina and at least with the El Nino's we usually have a very active STJ and better chances for a bigger storm or two during the winter.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim... nice post and summary! We are watching the MJO and PV as we've discussed over the last page or two of this thread to see what happens for later on in this month and as we head into March. Spring fever is probably already in the air and on peoples mind sets since this winter has been so mild. But I've lived here a long time just as you have and one thing we have seen a lot of is spring tries to take hold but winter has one last trick or two up its sleeve. We shall see as usual.

Good Morning Les and you are correct about getting spring to take hold around here. The PV is a wild card even if it splits as we know. The mjo is moving but we are talking going through phases 4-6 in the next 10 days and hopefully it continue into phases 7-1 but again another wild card as we have seen these waves die before really getting into the colder phases. Must say I am looking forward to a few years of El Nino and though a strong one can get us really mild but that has happen with this La Nina and at least with the El Nino's we usually have a very active STJ and better chances for a bigger storm or two during the winter.

I'd love to see a weak Central based or Modiki El Nino for next winter. We do our best with weak Nino's for sure. Weak to moderate Nina's can sometimes be okay but this Triple Dip Nina has not been good at all. Feb of 2021 was great for that 2 week stretch and that's literally been the highlight of the last 3 La Nina winters. I am ready for a change too! I'll gamble with an El Nino. I think the transition will be slow though and I also think the models that forecast ENSO are rushing this change. The SOI has had a few drops every now and again but it's still pretty darn positive as a whole. This tells me that the Nina and its effects on the atmosphere will be slow to decay. I would forecast ENSO neutral conditions for the summertime then go from there.

EDIT: This is also another reason to be skeptical of the MJO making it into Phase 7 or 8, IMO.

[tron777]

12Z GFS shows around a half inch of rain event total for CVG from today thru Thursday. The wind will certainly be the weather story with this system versus the rainfall although a few heavy downpours will be likely. Not concerned with severe wx this far north. That will be an issue for TN on south for the most part. Then for the Fri night into early Sat system, the orientation of the ridge over the Rockies is like from SW to NE and not more north to south. Because of this, the energy doesn't dig as much as it needs to plus the overall pattern is just too progressive to get anything going. That's been the issue honestly for the last several winters. What looks nice from a long range standpoint turns out to be a weak piece of junk when you get within 5 days and that looks to be the case this time as well. The energy will be fully sampled for the 12Z runs tomorrow so that one eye is still partially open on this one. I was hoping to see some more positive signs with the 12Z runs today but so far, that just isn't the case.

[tron777]

Already up to 57 despite the cloud cover. Can we hit 60 prior to some showers moving in here shortly?

[tpweather]

12Z GFS shows around a half inch of rain event total for CVG from today thru Thursday. The wind will certainly be the weather story with this system versus the rainfall although a few heavy downpours will be likely. Not concerned with severe wx this far north. That will be an issue for TN on south for the most part. Then for the Fri night into early Sat system, the orientation of the ridge over the Rockies is like from SW to NE and not more north to south. Because of this, the energy doesn't dig as much as it needs to plus the overall pattern is just too progressive to get anything going. That's been the issue honestly for the last several winters. What looks nice from a long range standpoint turns out to be a weak piece of junk when you get within 5 days and that looks to be the case this time as well. The energy will be fully sampled for the 12Z runs tomorrow so that one eye is still partially open on this one. I was hoping to see some more positive signs with the 12Z runs today but so far, that just isn't the case.

Great Post Les. Progressive nature has been a problem and the NAO has rarely dipped to negative this season so systems just move along. The system over the weekend may get together over the waters of the Carolina's but even that system will head out to sea instead of moving up the east coast. Next week looks like this week and the good thing is we are not getting any heavier rains that can promote flooding but again no snow cover over much of the eastern half of the country except in the far northern regions so this helps as well. The western states will need to see how the snow melt in the mountains will promote some flooding but hopefully most of the melt will be in the reservoir's and if they just ease into spring without to much warmth at one time hopefully they will be okay.

[tron777]

We could use a little rain actually Tim and the amounts I am seeing for this week and next week are perfect to keep soils pretty much where they need to be in our local area. Glad to see the roads / cars getting a rinse job as well. They sure need it!

12Z CMC has a bit of light snow for the weekend system but that's about it. Best case scenario is a touch of light snow late Fri night or early Sat morning. That's about all the potential that I am seeing attm.

[tpweather]

Les we are perfect in terms of rainfall this year so that is not a concern. The rainy season for us usually runs from mid-March - mid-July and that is the time period that can make or break us. Last year we had the dry spell in late summer and early fall but recovered fine once we got later in the fall plus we had a surplus before that happened. Short term droughts are about all we get around here and for me long term drought means 6 months or longer and we are just in a place that rarely see the longer term droughts.

[tron777]

Les we are perfect in terms of rainfall this year so that is not a concern. The rainy season for us usually runs from mid-March - mid-July and that is the time period that can make or break us. Last year we had the dry spell in late summer and early fall but recovered fine once we got later in the fall plus we had a surplus before that happened. Short term droughts are about all we get around here and for me long term drought means 6 months or longer and we are just in a place that rarely see the longer term droughts.

Long term droughts are indeed very rare for this area. 100% agree with you Tim. Our style of drought is mainly in the up to 3 months type of thing which as you said, we can easily recover from those. I'll be ready for spring once we get one last nice snow system to track. Is that too much to ask? Mother Nature has been saying YES loud and clear as of late but I am still hopeful that will change in a couple more weeks. Until we get there, more of the same. 3-5 days of mild weather then 1 or 2 chillier days. A couple of rain makers a week and some wind, etc. etc. This continues to be the theme for sure going forward.

[tron777]

12Z Euro does close the 500 MB low off over TN for the early Sat system, but QPF is still very light. It's a shame that this system fizzles out because of the energy transfer to the EC Low . If it weren't for that, this would have been a much more robust system for us.

[Bgoney]

Not even a carrot tossed out throughout the 12z suite. Daffodils will be on the rise

[tron777]

The cold front is definitely slow coming thru the area. Just some light rain here, not even enough to wet the ground. Just a trace so far.

[winterstormjoe]

The cold front is definitely slow coming thru the area. Just some light rain here, not even enough to wet the ground. Just a trace so far.

Yep, just wet enough out here in Fairfield to mix in with the salt on the road to make the cars dirty again! UGH!

[cloudy72]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
303 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051>054-060>062-080415-
/O.NEW.KILN.HW.A.0001.230209T1200Z-230210T0000Z/
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-
Logan-Union OH-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-
Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty,
West College Corner, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta,
St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine, Marysville, Troy,
Piqua, Tipp City, Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson,
Plain City, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek,
Fairborn, and Xenia
303 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
possible.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central Indiana and Central and West
Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

[tron777]

The cold front is definitely slow coming thru the area. Just some light rain here, not even enough to wet the ground. Just a trace so far.

Yep, just wet enough out here in Fairfield to mix in with the salt on the road to make the cars dirty again! UGH!

Yeah... going to have to wait until Wed night / Thurs to get the salt rinsed off the roads.

[tron777]

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
possible.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central Indiana and Central and West
Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Thursday evening.

I could see a wind advisory also being issued for the rest of us tomorrow (for Thursday). This has certainly been the winter of wind that is for sure. Can't buy a good severe wx event or a nice snow storm, but the wind has sure been very noticeable.

[tpweather]

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
possible.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central Indiana and Central and West
Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Thursday evening.

I could see a wind advisory also being issued for the rest of us tomorrow (for Thursday). This has certainly been the winter of wind that is for sure. Can't buy a good severe wx event or a nice snow storm, but the wind has sure been very noticeable.

I agree Les and not sure how far south they will extend the advisory but I believe they will issue one here locally before this time on Wednesday

[tron777]

We're on the board now as of 4pm... 0.01" The front has passed and temps are starting to drop a bit now.

[cloudy72]

I could see a wind advisory also being issued for the rest of us tomorrow (for Thursday). This has certainly been the winter of wind that is for sure. Can't buy a good severe wx event or a nice snow storm, but the wind has sure been very noticeable.

I agree Les and not sure how far south they will extend the advisory but I believe they will issue one here locally before this time on Wednesday

ILN discussion definitely hints at most if not all of us being under at least an advisory....

As we progress into Wednesday evening, surface high pressure
gets booted to our northeast and a warm front begins to lift
through our CWA. Some isentropic lift will allow for rainfall to
develop ahead of the warm front. This pcpn will be pretty light
as it moves through, but hi-res models seem to be pretty
confident in rainfall being produced into the early part of the
night. There does appear to be a several hour window where most
of our CWA goes dry based on CAM guidance. During the latter
part of the night, a strengthening LLJ will begin to nudge its
way into the Tristate area. Deterministic models are pretty
consistent in showing 850mb winds exceeding 60 kts, with some
even reaching 70-80+ kts with this LLJ around 12z Thursday
morning. This will lead to a gradual increase in surface winds
ahead of the cold front. Additionally, rain shower coverage will
also increase during this same timeframe. Still uncertain
whether or not thunder may be observed in the southern part of
our CWA, but signal is still very weak on CAPE production.
Severe concern still seems pretty minimal with lack of CAPE. The
0-3km shear vector is also important to monitor for potential
QLCS spin-ups, but the orientation of this vector to the line of
showers is not overly concerning as of now.

As we progress through the morning hours, surface winds are
expected to increase further behind the cold frontal passage.
The combination of the isallobaric response and brief dry slot
(where some sky clearing may occur behind the cold front) could
lead to further enhancements in wind gusts as lapse rates
steepen. Several deterministic models are showing wind gusts in
excess of 50-55 mph, and the HREF ensemble mean has most of our
SW counties observing gusts in excess of 45 mph right at 12z
Thursday. Given this signal, went ahead with a High Wind Watch
in our climatologically favored counties for higher winds, which
also happens to be the counties where the strongest winds are
expected with this system. A Wind Advisory will be favored for
many other counties, but will wait another period before this is
issued.

[tron777]

Yeah... that pretty much matches our thinking here. I would assume that one will be issued tomorrow (for Thurs) with the overnight package.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and if the latest gfs is correct I have a better shot of getting snow this weekend in SC than here at home. Who knew I need to travel 407 miles southeast to get snow.

[MVWxObserver]

Sure am NOT looking forward to the tropical storm-like force winds for Thurs. Saw on the WDTN2 evening wx segment wind gust forecast map a 60 mph one for here in Darke Co e.g. early that afternoon!

Prayerfully no one will lose any power, shingles, windows e.g. etc.

Currently 45 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

Good Evening and if the latest gfs is correct I have a better shot of getting snow this weekend in SC than here at home. Who knew I need to travel 407 miles southeast to get snow.

If that pans out, you've got to take a pic for us Tim.

[tron777]

Sure am NOT looking forward to the tropical storm-like force winds for Thurs. Saw on the WDTN2 evening wx segment wind gust forecast map a 60 mph one for here in Darke Co e.g. early that afternoon!

Prayerfully no one will lose any power, shingles, windows e.g. etc.

Currently 45 here in G'ville.

Models are showing gusts between 40 to 60 mph for much of the region. The further north you go, the worse the wind will be since you are closer to the area of low pressure. We've been thru this many times before esp. this winter. I don't mind the winds we get during a t-storm since they are short lived but hours and hours of wind, yeah, it is getting ridiculous for sure.

[Bgoney]

Winds are the only story going forward as qpf has dropped of significantly. HRES Nam is much more widespread regionally with the 50 -60 gusts

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