February 2023 Discussion

[tron777]

Gonna be a cold one tonight / tomorrow morning. At CVG the current dewpoint is 6. Winds are still up right now but should die down some after sunset. Winds will start to turn SE towards dawn so that will limit how far down we can go plus the lack of snow cover as well. Thinking we will stay in the teens in CVG Land. I'll go 12-15 for a low. Northern posters like our I-70 Crew, you all in rural areas away from the DAY and CMH Metros should be able to get down into the single digits. Will go 10-12 degrees elsewhere.

We will see a breezy weekend with southerly flow quickly allowing temps to rise into the 40s (U30s North of I-70). Temps will stay up Sat night due to this southerly winds and should stay 30 to 35 in most areas. Sunday thanks to the wind will get up towards that 50 degree mark. Some clouds maybe the only thing to stop us from hitting that mark. A dry weekend though so if you don't mind the wind it won't be too bad at all. Monday is also a nice day in the 50s before we begin to track our rain maker late Tues - Thursday then the potential weekend system we have been discussing today.

[martrules]

Wind chill at Mount Washington is currently -108F, breaking the US record of -103F set 19 years ago.

[tron777]

18Z GFS continues to pass the cold front for next week much further south then the other models on Thursday. The follow up wave also continues to dig much further to the south as well. Plus it is stronger and we get snow from the upper low Fri night into Sat (Feb 10-11th). 18Z GEFS has 4 out of 20 members giving us snow for that time period as well. I know those aren't huge odds but it is an improvement versus only 1 or 2 on previous Ensemble runs. As usual, we shall see!

[tron777]

Wind chill at Mount Washington is currently -108F, breaking the US record of -103F set 19 years ago.

That's crazy! Check this out and you can really hear that wind roaring! The obs posted are old of course since this was posted earlier today.

[tron777]

Good morning all! I'll be going to my Brother's in Milford at some point today, be back tomorrow afternoon sometime. But I wanted to comment on the overnight models. No changes thru Thursday. The weekend to me is still interesting. GFS is still on board and the Euro looked better as well. The Canadian is still taking the northern route with Thursday's front. A long way to go obviously, but my one eye is definitely still open on next weekend for sure.

Keys to success:

- We need the rain maker for next week to track along the Apps and drive the front south.
- The next piece of energy needs to dig way to the south and have the upper low close off over KY just south of us so we are on the northside then NW side (deformation zone) to get a nice thumping of snow.

If any one of these things don't occur or don't occur at the right time, the event doesn't happen.

[tron777]

This is the 6Z GFS for CVG. This is just like that 18Z run a couple of days ago. Pure fantasy right now, but not far fetched to be honest. This is what can happen when everything goes right and the timing is absolutely perfect.

Code: Select all

SAT 00Z 11-FEB   6.4    -0.1    1001      83      97    0.04     539     538    
SAT 06Z 11-FEB  -0.6    -6.5    1003      96      31    0.62     529     526    
SAT 12Z 11-FEB  -5.5   -11.9    1010      93      98    0.38     528     520    
SAT 18Z 11-FEB  -3.9   -14.9    1016      81       8    0.08     531     519    
SUN 00Z 12-FEB  -6.2   -14.4    1021      86      11    0.01     532     516    
SUN 06Z 12-FEB  -9.7   -15.0    1025      91       4    0.01     540     52

[dce]

This is the 6Z GFS for CVG. This is just like that 18Z run a couple of days ago. Pure fantasy right now, but not far fetched to be honest. This is what can happen when everything goes right and the timing is absolutely perfect.

Code: Select all

SAT 00Z 11-FEB   6.4    -0.1    1001      83      97    0.04     539     538    
SAT 06Z 11-FEB  -0.6    -6.5    1003      96      31    0.62     529     526    
SAT 12Z 11-FEB  -5.5   -11.9    1010      93      98    0.38     528     520    
SAT 18Z 11-FEB  -3.9   -14.9    1016      81       8    0.08     531     519    
SUN 00Z 12-FEB  -6.2   -14.4    1021      86      11    0.01     532     516    
SUN 06Z 12-FEB  -9.7   -15.0    1025      91       4    0.01     540     52

The 12z run is similar. Who knows? It's a week away. We'll see what happens. Even the Canadian and the Euro have sort of the same idea, though not exact. The GFS has a full blown snowstorm and the others do not show a snowstorm. My point is, though, that the pieces of the puzzle appear to be similar on all the models. I will say this, I don't think it's going to be as above normal temp wise as has been advertised. Looks to be right around normal in the 8-14 day range if you ask me, but we will see.

[tron777]

Doug the extended range is beginning to look better. I agree

[tron777]

18z GFS is more separated with the upper low. Not as phased.

[Bgoney]

Our 6 consecutive day stretch of below normal temps ended yesterday averaging -5.1 below norms and a mean temp of 26.8. Our last bout of consecutive days below normal around Christmas was 7 days with that departure being -16 degrees below the norm and the mean temp was 17.8 degrees during that stretch.

Our new stretch of above normals (norms at cvg 42/24) started yesterday afternoon and should go for 7 days or so. Showery weather returns Tues pm and off and on through Thursday. The late Friday/Saturday event looks like showers possibly changing to snow showers atm . MArginal temps and lack of moisture are the big question marks with that one

[tron777]

The pattern looks more progressive on the overnight models. Hoping this is the period where models lose the storm then bring it back at Day 4-5 lol

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a very mild and most likely wet week. Chance of rain on Tuesday and much better chance late Wednesday into Thursday. The gfs is back to its old self and moving the system in quicker and to the east coast. The CMC and Euro are slower and I believe they are correct. Then the old threading the needle on Friday and early Saturday the chance of some winter weather in here but the system is really going to need to produce its own cold air but its possible as the system at this point looks to be very close to our area. After that we get milder once again but cold is going to be building over Canada once again and then we bide our time to see how much of the cold can move this way. So with the upcoming week following the CMC as it not doubt has been much better in the past week or so with the pattern. The Euro is starting to correct itself and looks more the CMC so it will probably do well this week and the gfs is the gfs and that's all I got to say about that.

What I don't like is we had the very mild January and February at this point is a toss up on whether we are above or below normal in temps. This seems to point towards a colder than normal March and maybe April as mother nature will balance things once again. By March I am ready to head outdoors and start working on the lawn but how I see the pattern playing out I am not seeing an early spring in the cards. Does not mean we won't have some warm days here and there but could see many days in the 40's instead of the 50's and even 60's we should be having during that time period.

[airwolf76]

we will see what happens next weekend. right now just not seeing much to get excited about. kind of thinking second half of month will be better

[Bgoney]

Mods coming together with a low track for wed/Thurs, the all to familiar up river treck to a corridor that includes Indy to Chicago. Should be a good soaker for most of the region

[MVWxObserver]

HEY EVERYWXONE!!

[airwolf76]

EPS snowmap pretty hopeless through the 14th. id be shocked to go snowless for both Jan and Feb. im sticking with the last 2 weeks to cash in

[Bgoney]

No changes in the overnight mods for our upcoming rain this week . A few showers tomorrow, then wed. night and Thurs the better rains approach with a low off to our west. Friday night into Saturday still looks like showers to snow showers for the region, possibly some light accumulations for parts of the region depending on track but still a lack of moisture and suspect temps keep amounts to a low ceiling

[tpweather]

No changes in the overnight mods for our upcoming rain this week . A few showers tomorrow, then wed. night and Thurs the better rains approach with a low off to our west. Friday night into Saturday still looks like showers to snow showers for the region, possibly some light accumulations for parts of the region depending on track but still a lack of moisture and suspect temps keep amounts to a low ceiling

Good Morning Bgoney, your forecast looks great. This weekend chances are not great and like you mentioned the temps and lack of moisture seems to be some of the problems. Most likely we may see some snow showers or flurries but ground temps are mild and even temps when and if the snow is falling should be in the mid 30's. Then we warm back up quickly with temps back towards 50 by next Monday. Hope to get a decent rain this week and clean up the streets.

[tron777]

Good morning all! We are definitely seeing some problems for the weekend system. The pattern is too progressive and the low also looks to be transferring its energy to an East Coast low. Recall from several days ago the keys to success that I posted. We are no seeing a strong closed upper low to create more moisture and more cold air. The pattern is too progressive and the low is weaker. Plus it is transferring its energy to an EC Low so that cuts down on QPF for us as well. Not good for snow lovers that is for sure. We'll see what happens in the next couple of days.

Until then, rain chances will occur at times Tues - Thurs with the next chances to get wet on Tues (with the warm front) and Thurs with the cold front.

[tron777]

The MJO should finally be in Phase 4 by now with most models showing it taking a tour into 5, 6, and 7 by the time we get towards the later portion of the month. Will the wave die again or finally make it into the Western Pacific or Phase 8? A late month cool down into early March is still on the table. Until then, I continue to see more warm days then cold. We will also see the continued up's and down's as well. 3-5 warm days then a couple of cold days. Wash, rinse, repeat. Just hope we can thread that needle for the next couple of weeks.

[winterstormjoe]

HEY EVERYWXONE!!

We can give ourselves a pat on the back. Lol

[airwolf76]

HEY EVERYWXONE!!

We can give ourselves a pat on the back. Lol

I know I can give myself one. I am a better forecaster then more then half the ones on youtube I can tell you that.

[tron777]

[winterstormjoe]

HEY EVERYWXONE!!

We can give ourselves a pat on the back. Lol

I know I can give myself one. I am a better forecaster then more then half the ones on youtube I can tell you that.

Les, you guys (bgoney, Tim, Trev, airwolf76, cloudy72, dce, and others that make this forum so informative to all of us. You just don't get this perfection on other forums or like you said youtube. Just want to say Thank you!

Wish we had a blockbuster winter going on, but our turn will be coming soon whether if it comes in a blockbuster snow storm or of a good month of it, ect!

[tron777]

HEY EVERYWXONE!!

We can give ourselves a pat on the back. Lol

I know I can give myself one. I am a better forecaster then more then half the ones on youtube I can tell you that.

Les, you guys (bgoney, Tim, Trev, airwolf76, cloudy72, dce, and others that make this forum so informative to all of us. You just don't get this perfection on other forums or like you said youtube. Just want to say Thank you!

Wish we had a blockbuster winter going on, but our turn will be coming soon whether if it comes in a blockbuster snow storm or of a good month of it, ect!

Thanks very much Joe! I appreciate the kind words and the fact that you continue to stick with us despite the lack of a wintry pattern! Still watching Fri night into Sat. but outside of that, not much to be had at this time.