February 2023 Discussion

[House of Cards]

This winter started off so well with our Christmas snowstorm and frigid temps and then a complete joke of a winter after

NYC still hasn't seen a flake yet.

But they've got Eric Adams, so......

[tron777]

[tron777]

This winter started off so well with our Christmas snowstorm and frigid temps and then a complete joke of a winter after

NYC still hasn't seen a flake yet.

But they've got Eric Adams, so......

I was waiting for you to comment Dave! You never disappoint.

[House of Cards]

This winter started off so well with our Christmas snowstorm and frigid temps and then a complete joke of a winter after

NYC still hasn't seen a flake yet.

But they've got Eric Adams, so......

I was waiting for you to comment Dave! You never disappoint.

I'm here all week. Remember to tip your waiters and waitresses!

[BookNerdCarp]

OV Winter at it's best

[tron777]

Well I stand corrected about NYC. Central Park did receive measurable snow after all recording nearly a half inch. It is the latest first measurable snow on record. Records for Central Park go back to 1869. Philly also recorded 0.3" to end their streak of snowless days.

[tron777]

OV Winter at it's best

Fire up the grill, Matt!

[cloudy72]

16 now at CVG and also IMBY.

Dropped to 14 in my hood - lowest of 2023 thus far I believe.

[tron777]

16 now at CVG and also IMBY.

Dropped to 14 in my hood - lowest of 2023 thus far I believe.

It is Mike based off of DAY's stats which was 16. For CVG it was 19 so we beat that as well this morning dropping down to 16.

[Bgoney]

Well I stand corrected about NYC. Central Park did receive measurable snow after all recording nearly a half inch. It is the latest first measurable snow on record. Records for Central Park go back to 1869. Philly also recorded 0.3" to end their streak of snowless days.

So they've already exceeded their January totals , lol

[winterstormjoe]

I still haven't used my snow blower since February of 2021. Wish I would have gotten it out a couple weeks ago with that 5 incher. Oh well, maybe just maybe we can salvage the last half of February with some good snows. The GFS (off and on) keeps wanting to set up another one of those boundaries again after next weekend but we're mainly on the warm side of it and as long as the MJO stays under phases 8,1 & 2, it's just not going to happen. Really wish the La Nina would disappear quickly, but it's the lag time that may be too late for this winter. Also, an atmospheric warming may be too late and who know which side of the earth would benefit from that. I don't know what the answer is, really!

[tron777]

I still haven't used my snow blower since February of 2021. Wish I would have gotten it out a couple weeks ago with that 5 incher. Oh well, maybe just maybe we can salvage the last half of February with some good snows. The GFS (off and on) keeps wanting to set up another one of those boundaries again after next weekend but we're mainly on the warm side of it and as long as the MJO stays under phases 8,1 & 2, it's just not going to happen. Really wish the La Nina would disappear quickly, but it's the lag time that may be too late for this winter. Also, an atmospheric warming may be too late and who know which side of the earth would benefit from that. I don't know what the answer is, really!

Hey Joe! The Nina is absolutely going away but the effects will linger so it just didn't weaken fast enough to save this winter. I still see no reversal or SSW event to save us either. However, don't be surprised to see another PV stretch take place in late Feb or early March. Depending on what the Tellies and MJO phase does that will determine where the cold goes. I just don't see much for the 1st half of Feb unless you get a well timed thread the needle event which the GFS tries to do on some runs (to your point) but the Ensembles and Euro do not support it so we honestly cannot buy it at this time. It is what it is. I do think the big snow storm potential is still on the table for later Feb / early March though. I'm actually hopeful for this period right now the way things look to me.

[Bgoney]

I still haven't used my snow blower since February of 2021. Wish I would have gotten it out a couple weeks ago with that 5 incher. Oh well, maybe just maybe we can salvage the last half of February with some good snows. The GFS (off and on) keeps wanting to set up another one of those boundaries again after next weekend but we're mainly on the warm side of it and as long as the MJO stays under phases 8,1 & 2, it's just not going to happen. Really wish the La Nina would disappear quickly, but it's the lag time that may be too late for this winter. Also, an atmospheric warming may be too late and who know which side of the earth would benefit from that. I don't know what the answer is, really!

Hey Joe! The Nina is absolutely going away but the effects will linger so it just didn't weaken fast enough to save this winter. I still see no reversal or SSW event to save us either. However, don't be surprised to see another PV stretch take place in late Feb or early March. Depending on what the Tellies and MJO phase does that will determine where the cold goes. I just don't see much for the 1st half of Feb unless you get a well timed thread the needle event which the GFS tries to do on some runs (to your point) but the Ensembles and Euro do not support it so we honestly cannot buy it at this time. It is what it is. I do think the big snow storm potential is still on the table for later Feb / early March though. I'm actually hopeful for this period right now the way things look to me.

Agree , a slight recovery atm with the PV, then another modeled warming starting around the 10th through the middle of the month , so it's reasonable to expect some colder incursions later in the month. I see no reason why the MJO won't keep moving eastward into the maritimes as some of the models have it dieing into the COD. Once through the maritimes and into the Pac the question will again be can it sustain itself into the favorable wintry phases due to still atm anyway a hostile environment as it advances closer to the dateline. Possible those hostile conditions may lessen by the time MJO gets there , we'll just have to wait and see. For the short term the easterlies are still ripping

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[tron777]

I still haven't used my snow blower since February of 2021. Wish I would have gotten it out a couple weeks ago with that 5 incher. Oh well, maybe just maybe we can salvage the last half of February with some good snows. The GFS (off and on) keeps wanting to set up another one of those boundaries again after next weekend but we're mainly on the warm side of it and as long as the MJO stays under phases 8,1 & 2, it's just not going to happen. Really wish the La Nina would disappear quickly, but it's the lag time that may be too late for this winter. Also, an atmospheric warming may be too late and who know which side of the earth would benefit from that. I don't know what the answer is, really!

Hey Joe! The Nina is absolutely going away but the effects will linger so it just didn't weaken fast enough to save this winter. I still see no reversal or SSW event to save us either. However, don't be surprised to see another PV stretch take place in late Feb or early March. Depending on what the Tellies and MJO phase does that will determine where the cold goes. I just don't see much for the 1st half of Feb unless you get a well timed thread the needle event which the GFS tries to do on some runs (to your point) but the Ensembles and Euro do not support it so we honestly cannot buy it at this time. It is what it is. I do think the big snow storm potential is still on the table for later Feb / early March though. I'm actually hopeful for this period right now the way things look to me.

Agree , a slight recovery atm with the PV, then another modeled warming starting around the 10th through the middle of the month , so it's reasonable to expect some colder incursions later in the month. I see no reason why the MJO won't keep moving eastward into the maritimes as some of the models have it dieing into the COD. Once through the maritimes and into the Pac the question will again be can it sustain itself into the favorable wintry phases due to still atm anyway a hostile environment as it advances closer to the dateline. Possible those hostile conditions may lessen by the time MJO gets there , we'll just have to wait and see. For the short term the easterlies are still ripping



u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Great post Bgoney! I think we are on the same page here. The 12Z GFS tries to build in a +PNA but I'm not buying it (Week 2 towards V-day).

[airwolf76]

Remember all those youtube forecasters back in fall making their annual bold predictions for the winter man they sure have a lot of explaining to do and will lose a lot of subs i reckon. i swear some of these guys post the same maps year after year in hopes it will be correct. they always claim how passionate and hard they work yet they are always wrong lol

[young pup]

Hey the cmc is trying to give us some hope. Think it's time to schedule a quick vacation. Looked for next week already and the rooms are all booked at the place we normally stay.

canadian 240.png

[Pete1]

This winter started off so well with our Christmas snowstorm and frigid temps and then a complete joke of a winter after

Despite that Pete, we are still 1,5" above normal to end January at CVG. Granted that won't last of course. Last year at this time we only had 6.2" in the books. DAY has done half way decent too with 15.9" which is 1.8" above normal. CMH posters do have a legit reason to complain. Only 11.5" there which is 4.5" below normal. It can always get worse. Look at DC and Baltimore as I posted this morning. They had to wait until now for their first covering of the season. Now that's really, really bad. NYC still hasn't seen a flake yet. Anyway, it has been frustrating at times there is no doubt but looking at the numbers and how other areas have done, we truly cannot complain all that much.

Great points, Les. You are right. That does make me feel better about this winter. Guess I was just longing for those winters of my childhood where it seemed the lakes froze every year for at least 2 weeks straight and we had numerous snowstorms every winter.

Kids today have no clue what it’s like to grab the skates and head off to the nearest lake for a pickup game of hockey.

[Wxlrnr]

I have no idea what the effect is, but per Spaceweather.com the past few days, satellite measurements have seen temperatures in the stratosphere of - 85 C. This causes unusual ice crystal clouds to form, usually in the artic circle. However, they are being seen as far south as Scotland.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and a lovely 1st day of February. Since very little to talk about here over the next several days lets see what else is happening. The northeast and especially towards Maine are expecting wind chills over the next few days to maybe hit -50 at times. Of course Dallas -Memphis getting more frz/rain today through Thursday morning before the final wave is headed east towards the Atlantic Ocean. Besides that nothing earth shattering going though we could get near 10 degrees by Saturday morning plus during the early part of Friday it will be windy so wind chills could even get near 0 for us at times. Cold and no snow is not my favorite type of weather.

[tron777]

Remember all those youtube forecasters back in fall making their annual bold predictions for the winter man they sure have a lot of explaining to do and will lose a lot of subs i reckon. i swear some of these guys post the same maps year after year in hopes it will be correct. they always claim how passionate and hard they work yet they are always wrong lol

I agree! One winter will come along and they will be right, but for the wrong reasons. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut you know!

[tron777]

Hey the cmc is trying to give us some hope. Think it's time to schedule a quick vacation. Looked for next week already and the rooms are all booked at the place we normally stay. canadian 240.png

Hey JP! Models are trying to cook something up around Day 10 but buyer beware. First of all it is Day 10 and second of all, I am skeptical of any snow and cold for the first half of the month due to reasons we've been talking about on here today and yesterday. Get a decent look inside of Day 5 then I'll be more interested.

[tron777]

This winter started off so well with our Christmas snowstorm and frigid temps and then a complete joke of a winter after

Despite that Pete, we are still 1,5" above normal to end January at CVG. Granted that won't last of course. Last year at this time we only had 6.2" in the books. DAY has done half way decent too with 15.9" which is 1.8" above normal. CMH posters do have a legit reason to complain. Only 11.5" there which is 4.5" below normal. It can always get worse. Look at DC and Baltimore as I posted this morning. They had to wait until now for their first covering of the season. Now that's really, really bad. NYC still hasn't seen a flake yet. Anyway, it has been frustrating at times there is no doubt but looking at the numbers and how other areas have done, we truly cannot complain all that much.

Great points, Les. You are right. That does make me feel better about this winter. Guess I was just longing for those winters of my childhood where it seemed the lakes froze every year for at least 2 weeks straight and we had numerous snowstorms every winter.

Kids today have no clue what it’s like to grab the skates and head off to the nearest lake for a pickup game of hockey.

The winters in southern Michigan even were much better then what they even see today. I remember ice fishing every winter when we saw my Grandparents around the Holidays and we'd also go back up for MLK and Pres Day weekends (3 day weekends back then). We rode snowmobiles, etc. Had an absolute BALL!

[Pete1]

This winter started off so well with our Christmas snowstorm and frigid temps and then a complete joke of a winter after

Despite that Pete, we are still 1,5" above normal to end January at CVG. Granted that won't last of course. Last year at this time we only had 6.2" in the books. DAY has done half way decent too with 15.9" which is 1.8" above normal. CMH posters do have a legit reason to complain. Only 11.5" there which is 4.5" below normal. It can always get worse. Look at DC and Baltimore as I posted this morning. They had to wait until now for their first covering of the season. Now that's really, really bad. NYC still hasn't seen a flake yet. Anyway, it has been frustrating at times there is no doubt but looking at the numbers and how other areas have done, we truly cannot complain all that much.

Great points, Les. You are right. That does make me feel better about this winter. Guess I was just longing for those winters of my childhood where it seemed the lakes froze every year for at least 2 weeks straight and we had numerous snowstorms every winter.

Kids today have no clue what it’s like to grab the skates and head off to the nearest lake for a pickup game of hockey.

The winters in southern Michigan even were much better then what they even see today. I remember ice fishing every winter when we saw my Grandparents around the Holidays and we'd also go back up for MLK and Pres Day weekends (3 day weekends back then). We rode snowmobiles, etc. Had an absolute BALL!

That does sound awesome. Anyone have a time machine so we can go back and revisit those days that have long since passed?

[tron777]

I have no idea what the effect is, but per Spaceweather.com the past few days, satellite measurements have seen temperatures in the stratosphere of - 85 C. This causes unusual ice crystal clouds to form, usually in the artic circle. However, they are being seen as far south as Scotland.

Hi Linn.... Are you referring to Noctilucent Clouds? I've heard of the term but have zero knowledge of how it may or may not impact our weather. I have noticed over the last few years that they are starting to show up further south then normal. That's really all I know.

[tron777]

Good Afternoon and a lovely 1st day of February. Since very little to talk about here over the next several days lets see what else is happening. The northeast and especially towards Maine are expecting wind chills over the next few days to maybe hit -50 at times. Of course Dallas -Memphis getting more frz/rain today through Thursday morning before the final wave is headed east towards the Atlantic Ocean. Besides that nothing earth shattering going though we could get near 10 degrees by Saturday morning plus during the early part of Friday it will be windy so wind chills could even get near 0 for us at times. Cold and no snow is not my favorite type of weather.

The only chance of snow in the near term is for a few flurries to perhaps make it into the area off of Lake Michigan on Friday with the cold air blowing off of the Lake. As you know, if the wind is right, it's usually a narrow band and very isolated anyway. Plus it won't cause any problems where it does occur since we are too far away from the Lake the majority of the time. I've seen us get meaningful snow a few times from LES, but it is rare this far south.