February 2023 Discussion

[tpweather]

Agreed Tim... we have certainly done better as a whole which is always good. The weather overall as a whole is rather boring until next week when rain returns by Tues. Not much else to talk about other then some flurries on Friday with that last cold shot. The winds have to line up just right for anything off of Lake Michigan to make it down here.

Les the southern most counties overnight may get a little snow but not enough for an advisory. Still watching the last wave later Wednesday into Thursday and if the models continue to hold as so they will move the precip northward once again by 50-100 miles before the system is over. We know there is a problem when they are having the same issues over and over. The one thing that may hurt is the current wave is stronger than predicted so how much moisture are they using and how much will be left for the Thursday system. Not giving up yet and why would I because the models themselves are not giving me any guidance at all.

[tron777]

Agreed Tim... we have certainly done better as a whole which is always good. The weather overall as a whole is rather boring until next week when rain returns by Tues. Not much else to talk about other then some flurries on Friday with that last cold shot. The winds have to line up just right for anything off of Lake Michigan to make it down here.

Les the southern most counties overnight may get a little snow but not enough for an advisory. Still watching the last wave later Wednesday into Thursday and if the models continue to hold as so they will move the precip northward once again by 50-100 miles before the system is over. We know there is a problem when they are having the same issues over and over. The one thing that may hurt is the current wave is stronger than predicted so how much moisture are they using and how much will be left for the Thursday system. Not giving up yet and why would I because the models themselves are not giving me any guidance at all.

They're not, I agree but one thing to consider also is that with each passing wave, the baroclinic boundary gets pulled further and further to the south so each wave will pass further and further south if only by a little bit. If the boundary were stalled up against the Apps for all of these waves, it would be a completely different story, but that's unfortunately not the case here.

[Wxlrnr]

Just saw channel 19 showing radar to the west and commenting snow breaking out farther north than models showing. He said he was worried, BUT, since models did not show accumulation for us, he discounted it.

[tpweather]

I see the NWS in Louisville has issued a winter weather advisory near I-64 in the Lexington area. This made sense and glad to see the decided on that and like I mentioned it will be mainly snow but could start out as frz/rain or frz/drl. Again I could see some very light snow in our southern counties though I don't believe any advisory will be issued.

[tron777]

1030 MB high is building in tonight and it is currently located over ILL so the snow on radar can only come so far north. IMO even if radar shows something over us, dry air should not allow it to reach the ground ala virga. For example, Evansville has some light snow per radar right over them and they are reporting cloudy skies with a temp of 25 dew of 14. On the KY side, dews are a little higher in the 20s so the deeper moisture is on the KY side versus IN. Owensboro reporting flurries and Hopkinsville reporting frz rain. I am in agreement with the light snow getting into the I-64 corridor but I am really doubtful it can get much further north then that due to the high building in that I mentioned.

[tpweather]

I agree Les for the most part and it is the further southeast in Kentucky where I believe a little light snow can fall in our area. Brooksville and maybe Maysville I believe could see some flakes in here overnight. These overrunning events are just a nightmare for models and I use the old saying I see better than I hear when looking at models but also what is actually happening.

Memphis is just getting pounded with frz/rain and I hear reports of down line and tons of power outages and not expected to be done with the winter weather until Thursday morning. That is a very long period of frozen precip and the kind you have little resources to take care of the ice.

[tpweather]

I know Bgoney keeps us updated on the MJO at all times. Does a wonderful job with this info. He mentioned that we should be heading towards the Maritime phase. The only difference I see in the modeling is the operation model as a rather strong wave in phase 4 and that would no doubt be very mild wild the ensembles much lighter phase or less influence though still milder than normal but not as toasty for this time of year. Will watch this over the next few days and even the past few days a little headway away from phase 4 but my guess that is temporary and over the next few days a surge towards the Maritime phase.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and finally calling uncle on the Thursday system. Reason is the cold has taken over as we are in the mid-teens locally with some folks north of here below 10 degrees. The models got this correct about the cold and that just keeps the system to far south. Will need to head towards southeast Kentucky which may get some decent snow on Thursday. Friday looks really cold before we start a nice mild spell. Still not sure how long this will last but of course at a certain point you say heck with the cold and bring on spring.

Couple of things as we head toward spring and one is flooding. There is usually some flooding every year along rivers but unless we start to get a bigger snow pack in the USA folks east of the Rockies look good though always a few places that get flooded every year. Still have a good two months where winter weather can happen but to say the least a somewhat blah winter in terms of downright winter weather.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Tim... I'm coming over to the island to pick you up. Let's get the hell out of here!

17 here this morning and at CVG. Don't have much to talk about right now for our local weather as we'll deal with one more cold shot on Fri then slowly moderate this weekend. 50s are back next week with Tues being our next chance for rainfall. Then a stronger front on Friday of next week which briefly cools us down next weekend. We will probably warm up again after that based on the MJO phases and Ensemble Guidance. A short post this morning but when you don't have a snow storm or severe wx event to track, that's what you'll get.

[tpweather]

Good morning all! Tim... I'm coming over to the island to pick you up. Let's get the hell out of here!

17 here this morning and at CVG. Don't have much to talk about right now for our local weather as we'll deal with one more cold shot on Fri then slowly moderate this weekend. 50s are back next week with Tues being our next chance for rainfall. Then a stronger front on Friday of next week which briefly cools us down next weekend. We will probably warm up again after that based on the MJO phases and Ensemble Guidance. A short post this morning but when you don't have a snow storm or severe wx event to track, that's what you'll get.

Good Morning Les and thanks as sometimes it gets really lonely on this Island. Next week looks mild but also could be wet and can we get the cold front late in the week to bring another shot of cold air.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Tim... I'm coming over to the island to pick you up. Let's get the hell out of here!

17 here this morning and at CVG. Don't have much to talk about right now for our local weather as we'll deal with one more cold shot on Fri then slowly moderate this weekend. 50s are back next week with Tues being our next chance for rainfall. Then a stronger front on Friday of next week which briefly cools us down next weekend. We will probably warm up again after that based on the MJO phases and Ensemble Guidance. A short post this morning but when you don't have a snow storm or severe wx event to track, that's what you'll get.

Good Morning Les and thanks as sometimes it gets really lonely on this Island. Next week looks mild but also could be wet and can we get the cold front late in the week to bring another shot of cold air.

I guess we can't rule out a few flakes with that shot of cold air but it doesn't last long unfortunately and we warm right back up. The MJO stays in Phase 3 until it finally moves into Phase 4 sometime during the 2nd week of Feb per guidance anyway. IMO the first half of Feb doesn't look very good for snow lovers outside of a well timed shortwave. You know how well we do with timing.

[tron777]

16 now at CVG and also IMBY.

[Bgoney]

Woo-hoo coldest day of 2023!!! Since 1960 , January 2023 ranks #9 warmest at +7 degrees . A monthly low of only 19 ties for second with 1989 , while 2006 holds onto first with a 20 degree reading. No other years come close to this warm of a low for all of January.

tempanom.PNG

[tron777]

1990 and 1998 were very wet years too. 90 was a strong La Nina and 98 was the super El Nino. Hopefully a sign that we'll have some good t-storm action this summer and less of those blasted 90s! Of course watch we'll see 30 90 degree days and 3 100 degree days.

[tpweather]

Woo-hoo coldest day of 2023!!! Since 1960 , January 2023 ranks #9 warmest at +7 degrees . A monthly low of only 19 ties for second with 1989 , while 2006 holds onto first with a 20 degree reading. No other years come close to this warm of a low for all of January.



tempanom.PNG

This worries me as May will probably be the 9th coldest just when you are ready for spring weather. Mother Nature loves to mess with us

[Bgoney]

2023 ranks #3 warmest low average with 31.4

[tron777]

Well how about that... the snow starved Mid Atlantic weenies finally got their first snow of the season with 0.4” falling at Washington DC and 0.2” at Baltimore.

[tron777]

Woo-hoo coldest day of 2023!!! Since 1960 , January 2023 ranks #9 warmest at +7 degrees . A monthly low of only 19 ties for second with 1989 , while 2006 holds onto first with a 20 degree reading. No other years come close to this warm of a low for all of January.

tempanom.PNG

This worries me as May will probably be the 9th coldest just when you are ready for spring weather. Mother Nature loves to mess with us

If not May then April. I'll be fishing in the snow when I go up to Lake Erie in mid April.

[tron777]

2023 ranks #3 warmest low average with 31.4

That's so sad...

[Bgoney]

For comparison since 1960 here are top coldest average mean temps and coldest average low temps for January. 2023 was 38.4 and 31.4

avetemps2.PNG

lowtempsav.PNG

[tron777]

According to those stats, the last really cold January we had was 2014. My goodness I didn't realize it had been that long.

[Pete1]

This winter started off so well with our Christmas snowstorm and frigid temps and then a complete joke of a winter after

[tron777]

This winter started off so well with our Christmas snowstorm and frigid temps and then a complete joke of a winter after

Despite that Pete, we are still 1,5" above normal to end January at CVG. Granted that won't last of course. Last year at this time we only had 6.2" in the books. DAY has done half way decent too with 15.9" which is 1.8" above normal. CMH posters do have a legit reason to complain. Only 11.5" there which is 4.5" below normal. It can always get worse. Look at DC and Baltimore as I posted this morning. They had to wait until now for their first covering of the season. Now that's really, really bad. NYC still hasn't seen a flake yet. Anyway, it has been frustrating at times there is no doubt but looking at the numbers and how other areas have done, we truly cannot complain all that much.

[Bgoney]

Starting with winter of 1976 through the winter of 1988 , 10 , I said 10, were below normal tempwise, many well below as we know and the other 3 only a degree or less above normal , even those 3 by todays standard would be an especiallly cold winter

[tron777]

Starting with winter of 1976 through the winter of 1988 , 10 , I said 10, were below normal tempwise, many well below as we know and the other 3 only a degree or less above normal , even those 3 by todays standard would be an especiallly cold winter

That was sure an amazing stretch! Even a couple of the 1990s winter were good like 93-94 and 95-96. Then we had a nice 2002-2003, the big Dec of 2004 Pre-Christmas storm, the March 2008 blizz, and who can forget 2009-2010! since then 2013-2014 was the last true winter that had a ton of cold and snow. Even 2014-2015 wasn't terrible especially in Feb of that winter. Since then only Feb of 2021 was great and it's been tough really since that last great winter of 2013-2014. Odds say we are due, but unfortunately Mother Nature doesn't give a crap about stats.