February 2023 Discussion

[tron777]

On the EPS freebie maps, I am seeing some light precip on Monday but the higher precip signal is def around GHD. If anyone has access to the precip type maps like we can see for free on the GEFS, please post. Thanks!

All I saw was the ice probability map from the EU like the one from yesterday and it shows the best chance for ice is Wednesday pm into the day Thursday

Thanks! That is a signal amongst many of the models is for our highest chance of precip and most QPF to come during that time. Anything before that is up in the air as you already know.

[tron777]

18Z GFS has that stripe of snow Monday morning for the Tri-state. The Tues wave is south of us. Then for the bigger wave Wed into GHD, the GFS brings in light rain with a separate northern stream system so no phasing between the two jet streams. This is a new solution I haven't seen before. It's been arctic high pressure to the north and everything comes in via the STJ. This solution is so different from anything I have seen to date. An easy toss...

18Z GEFS, quite a few members now have that Mon morning stripe of snow and some have frozen precip too due to a more amplified wave. A lot of members have something for Tues also and Wed into GHD as well, so nothing that supports the OP GFS at all. If nothing else, the Ensemble looked way busier then the OP run.

[tron777]

CB Evening update:

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=57976

The reason I am posting it is because there is a graphic in the blog post from NWS LOU. Of course no one knows exactly how next week will unfold but I like looking at what other pros are thinking as well. (Not CB, but NWS LOU)

[tpweather]

I just looked at the latest gfs and I am not sure what is going on and maybe just a bad run.

[tron777]

I just looked at the latest gfs and I am not sure what is going on and maybe just a bad run.

Agreed Tim, esp if you saw my post on it. This is what I know so far. Do we see that light band of snow Mon morning? What about Tues? Strong signal for the heaviest precip to come thru sometime Wed into GHD. That is pretty much where we stand going into the next model cycle. (Just to get you caught up lol)

[tpweather]

I just looked at the latest gfs and I am not sure what is going on and maybe just a bad run.

Agreed Tim, esp if you saw my post on it. This is what I know so far. Do we see that light band of snow Mon morning? What about Tues? Strong signal for the heaviest precip to come thru sometime Wed into GHD. That is pretty much where we stand going into the next model cycle. (Just to get you caught up lol)

Thanks Les, just seemed so strange I will wait until the later model to see if we get a better feel. Sometimes you expect something and surprise.

[tron777]

Good morning! The NAM continues to be furthest north with the boundary early in the week. Watching that light snow behind Sunday's system on Monday morning then a much healthier wave for Mon night into Tues morning. NAM actually has a weak surface low over SKY with that wave. RGEM also has the wave just a bit further south then the NAM so a better shot at snow versus sleet or frz rain. GFS, CMC, and Euro continues to be much further south with the Mon night / Tues AM wave and the Wed into GHD system so mainly cold and dry on those models after Monday morning. From an ENS point of view, GEFS are mixed between wintry threats and nothing. EPS has also shifted south a bit minus Monday AM of course. Bottom line... low confidence in my view for next week. Yes it is Sat but I am not confident in predicting too much of anything right now other then a light wintry event is gaining steam for Monday morning. Otherwise ???

[tpweather]

Good Morning and hope the models start to get a better handle today on the upcoming week. Not an easy pattern with several pieces of energy roaming around and dealing with an arctic air mass that has entered the Northern Plains plus a stronger ridge will start to form over Florida in the next day or two. Placement will be so important and its just a developing pattern that takes time.

[tpweather]

During the winter a pattern change will cause the most problems with models and forecasters. When you have a developed pattern the players are on the field but until the pattern gets established like the upcoming week the players are on the sideline sort of waiting in limbo before they jump into action. So hopefully a little better in terms of how the upcoming pattern will established itself but that may be wishful thinking until the ridge over Florida grabs hold and that may be a day or two away. Not easy to forecast for this reason and the players will jump onto the playing and jump out until the pattern is established. When you have this situation you will get surprises both ways where a system may come into line only 12 hours later to be gone and one that does not show up until about 24 hours before. The only thing we really know is a decent shot of rain coming overnight into Sunday and most folks should get about 1/4 inch but some heavier amounts are possible just south of us and the could see .5-.75.

[tron777]

12Z NAM continues to be much stronger / north with the Mon night into Tues morning wave. Also at 84 hours when the model stops, another healthy looking wave is approaching from the SW. Sometimes the NAM can be too amp'ed up with systems, so we'll see if it can gain more model support going forward.

[tpweather]

12Z NAM continues to be much stronger / north with the Mon night into Tues morning wave. Also at 84 hours when the model stops, another healthy looking wave is approaching from the SW. Sometimes the NAM can be too amp'ed up with systems, so we'll see if it can gain more model support going forward.

Good Morning Les. Sort of been the Nam and Cmc working together with the systems more amp'ed up and the gfs and euro much weaker. Will start watching for trends and see which models cave. The only trend I have seen so far and its minor but the highs coming down from the northwest seem to be a tad weaker. Again need another day to see if this continues. Like I mentioned a couple of days ago I am leaning towards the CMC early on as it did much better with the arctic blast we had before Christmas. Whether this time will play out that way is hard to say but at least when I look at the CMC early on it seems to make a tad more sense. Just scares me a little as the closer we get to a system that model has a harder time for some reason and though it can hit on some storms I trust others the closer we get to a certain event.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! The 12Z RGEM is also north with the Monday morning wave. Mainly rain for us as the low passes thru NKY and the light wintry mix is to the north. But for Mon night and Tues, it is a bit too far south for us with the wave so cold and dry. We may just have to track each wave one at a time to be honest. That might be the right way to go here.

[tron777]

12Z GFS seems to be slowly bumping back north with each run. For Mon morning, now you have snow from NKY on north with rain to the south. Then for Mon night and Tues, it's still a miss to the south but just barely. If you look at the past few GFS runs, you'll notice that it is slowly correcting back to the north. I don't buy the cold and dry solutions for most of next week. I never have. The trend all winter long has been for models to over do the cold. I think we are seeing that here.

[Browneyedgirl]

During the winter a pattern change will cause the most problems with models and forecasters. When you have a developed pattern the players are on the field but until the pattern gets established like the upcoming week the players are on the sideline sort of waiting in limbo before they jump into action. So hopefully a little better in terms of how the upcoming pattern will established itself but that may be wishful thinking until the ridge over Florida grabs hold and that may be a day or two away. Not easy to forecast for this reason and the players will jump onto the playing and jump out until the pattern is established. When you have this situation you will get surprises both ways where a system may come into line only 12 hours later to be gone and one that does not show up until about 24 hours before. The only thing we really know is a decent shot of rain coming overnight into Sunday and most folks should get about 1/4 inch but some heavier amounts are possible just south of us and the could see .5-.75.

As I was reading this the song lyrics “ put me coach I’m ready to play” started going through my head.

We had the nail biter system. Now we have the put me in coach system.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS seems to be slowly bumping back north with each run. For Mon morning, now you have snow from NKY on north with rain to the south. Then for Mon night and Tues, it's still a miss to the south but just barely. If you look at the past few GFS runs, you'll notice that it is slowly correcting back to the north. I don't buy the cold and dry solutions for most of next week. I never have. The trend all winter long has been for models to over do the cold. I think we are seeing that here.

100p/c agree Les and especially with the strong ridging that looks to develop in Florida and the flow from the GOM is going to be nice. Gfs as we know is usually to fast with systems and especially weaker ones like we may see this week. Tons to watch this week and one of the harder things will be precip types with each system. I know you talked about the Ground Hog day storm for days and that may be the strongest but will see what happens before hand and see if that continues to be a more robust storm.

[tpweather]

During the winter a pattern change will cause the most problems with models and forecasters. When you have a developed pattern the players are on the field but until the pattern gets established like the upcoming week the players are on the sideline sort of waiting in limbo before they jump into action. So hopefully a little better in terms of how the upcoming pattern will established itself but that may be wishful thinking until the ridge over Florida grabs hold and that may be a day or two away. Not easy to forecast for this reason and the players will jump onto the playing and jump out until the pattern is established. When you have this situation you will get surprises both ways where a system may come into line only 12 hours later to be gone and one that does not show up until about 24 hours before. The only thing we really know is a decent shot of rain coming overnight into Sunday and most folks should get about 1/4 inch but some heavier amounts are possible just south of us and the could see .5-.75.

As I was reading this the song lyrics “ put me coach I’m ready to play” started going through my head.

We had the nail biter system. Now we have the put me in coach system.

Lisa can you tell we love sports.

[tron777]

12Z GFS seems to be slowly bumping back north with each run. For Mon morning, now you have snow from NKY on north with rain to the south. Then for Mon night and Tues, it's still a miss to the south but just barely. If you look at the past few GFS runs, you'll notice that it is slowly correcting back to the north. I don't buy the cold and dry solutions for most of next week. I never have. The trend all winter long has been for models to over do the cold. I think we are seeing that here.

100p/c agree Les and especially with the strong ridging that looks to develop in Florida and the flow from the GOM is going to be nice. Gfs as we know is usually to fast with systems and especially weaker ones like we may see this week. Tons to watch this week and one of the harder things will be precip types with each system. I know you talked about the Ground Hog day storm for days and that may be the strongest but will see what happens before hand and see if that continues to be a more robust storm.

Yeah... precip type is going to be a major issue to figure out but first things first. I am focusing more on where the baroclinic boundary will be. Then we can work on the other details of the forecast. I still believe the late Wed into GHD system is the strongest wave but impacts for us, if any, are TBD.

[tron777]

During the winter a pattern change will cause the most problems with models and forecasters. When you have a developed pattern the players are on the field but until the pattern gets established like the upcoming week the players are on the sideline sort of waiting in limbo before they jump into action. So hopefully a little better in terms of how the upcoming pattern will established itself but that may be wishful thinking until the ridge over Florida grabs hold and that may be a day or two away. Not easy to forecast for this reason and the players will jump onto the playing and jump out until the pattern is established. When you have this situation you will get surprises both ways where a system may come into line only 12 hours later to be gone and one that does not show up until about 24 hours before. The only thing we really know is a decent shot of rain coming overnight into Sunday and most folks should get about 1/4 inch but some heavier amounts are possible just south of us and the could see .5-.75.

As I was reading this the song lyrics “ put me coach I’m ready to play” started going through my head.

We had the nail biter system. Now we have the put me in coach system.

Lisa can you tell we love sports.

That's a great name for the possible new thread.

[tron777]

12Z Canadian bumped north too with light rain Mon morning for us and a light wintry mix to the north. Then for Mon night and Tues, we get light snow here and the wintry mix is just to our south. GHS system is completely suppressed to the south, like majorly lol

[tpweather]

12Z Canadian bumped north too with light rain Mon morning for us and a light wintry mix to the north. Then for Mon night and Tues, we get light snow here and the wintry mix is just to our south. GHS system is completely suppressed to the south, like majorly lol

Les the CMC has a nice high nearby so you can see the system is suppressed but the GFS has a more moist return because the high is off the east coast. Yes the GFS is milder and shows mainly rain. After that the PV will play a big part in the ongoing forecast. Does it decide to lift back out and we end up milder air or does it rotate around and we head for another colder period.

[tron777]

Some of these 12Z GEFS members are really amp'ed up for Mon morning showing a decent stripe of snow for I-70 or us. Some not as much and weak but I think what I said earlier rings true with regards to suppression A 50/50 split between more wintry weather for Mon night and Tues and again for late Wed into GHD. No way I am forecasting dry and cold next week. It's a matter of when, where, precip type, and how much. Going to be a headache.

[tron777]

12Z Canadian bumped north too with light rain Mon morning for us and a light wintry mix to the north. Then for Mon night and Tues, we get light snow here and the wintry mix is just to our south. GHS system is completely suppressed to the south, like majorly lol

Les the CMC has a nice high nearby so you can see the system is suppressed but the GFS has a more moist return because the high is off the east coast. Yes the GFS is milder and shows mainly rain. After that the PV will play a big part in the ongoing forecast. Does it decide to lift back out and we end up milder air or does it rotate around and we head for another colder period.

Agreed Tim... so many moving parts as we've discussed. The location of each arctic high and the baroclinic boundary is key as well as the strength of each wave with regards to moisture return from the Gulf.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has a touch of precip Mon morning otherwise cold and dry next week. I'm still not buying it.

EDIT: Add the 12Z EPS to this camp.

[Angelika]

Neat clouds today in Dayton. We're moving our youngest to Wright State housing for his co-op.

[tron777]

Gorgeous pic, Ang! Still sunny here not a cloud in the sky.