January 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

The battle between the arctic air / SE ridge right over the OV (what else is new? ) is going to make for continued tough forecasting and challenging set up's. Like you said Tim, rest up the next few days because we will need to put on our thinking caps once again.

[airwolf76]

I would like to see the EURO start showing something in the long range I dont trust the GFS

[tpweather]

The battle between the arctic air / SE ridge right over the OV (what else is new? ) is going to make for continued tough forecasting and challenging set up's. Like you said Tim, rest up the next few days because we will need to put on our thinking caps once again.

Going to be the biggest battle of the year between the arctic air and southeast ridge this season. We had a couple of cold spells with one in November and one in December but remember that was a south central ridge and not a southeast ridge each time. Matter of fact places like the Bahamas had some record cold back then. Getting the southeast ridge going is playing with fire but you open up the GOM and just roll the dice.

[tron777]

The battle between the arctic air / SE ridge right over the OV (what else is new? ) is going to make for continued tough forecasting and challenging set up's. Like you said Tim, rest up the next few days because we will need to put on our thinking caps once again.

Going to be the biggest battle of the year between the arctic air and southeast ridge this season. We had a couple of cold spells with one in November and one in December but remember that was a south central ridge and not a southeast ridge each time. Matter of fact places like the Bahamas had some record cold back then. Getting the southeast ridge going is playing with fire but you open up the GOM and just roll the dice.

It's all we can do. Hopefully these lows will stay on the weaker side because even with a weak low, the Gulf is wide open for business as you said and we can do well with overrunning events. Too strong of a low and we'll rain like today. just the way it is with this pattern. Thank you La Nina!

[tron777]

12Z Euro did what I thought it would with the first wave on 2/1. But then a 1050 MB high drops in and pushes the baroclinic boundary too far south and we get missed with the second wave. I suppose at this distance it is a possible solution but it's going to be a while until we see where this boundary sets up shop for the end of Jan and beginning of Feb.

[tpweather]

12Z Euro did what I thought it would with the first wave on 2/1. But then a 1050 MB high drops in and pushes the baroclinic boundary too far south and we get missed with the second wave. I suppose at this distance it is a possible solution but it's going to be a while until we see where this boundary sets up shop for the end of Jan and beginning of Feb.

Les I will take the output this far away instead of a 1020 high coming down

[tron777]

12Z Euro did what I thought it would with the first wave on 2/1. But then a 1050 MB high drops in and pushes the baroclinic boundary too far south and we get missed with the second wave. I suppose at this distance it is a possible solution but it's going to be a while until we see where this boundary sets up shop for the end of Jan and beginning of Feb.

Les I will take the output this far away instead of a 1020 high coming down

No doubt! GFS was in the 1030s so much more realistic in that regard.

[tron777]

Bgoney has our new February thread created so please start using it for Feb. talk. For the rest of January, all that remains is a rain maker this weekend and maybe something towards the last day or so of the month, which kind of ties into the Feb thread anyway.

[MVWxObserver]

Will be keeping tabs on Tues 1/31 as my mom has a getting established appt with a Rheumatologist in Lima, OH on that day.

[tron777]

Will be keeping tabs on Tues 1/31 as my mom has a getting established appt with a Rheumatologist in Lima, OH on that day.

We've got a lot of work to do in the coming week for the end of this month and beginning of next so stay tuned. I'm sure there will be lots of changes.

[tpweather]

Good Morning as we wake up to some snow showers across the area. Some slick spots are possible even though road temps are not to low. Of course visibility issues can happen for a brief period of time. These should be off an on today and later this afternoon and evening is my concern for icy roads once the sun starts setting. Again every situation is different and maybe just maybe the road temp saves us but way too early to say yes an of course certain places like bridges and overpasses usually ice up first and then we all travel on certain roads that we know there the ice builds up faster for some reason. Accumulation through Friday will be less than an inch for most folks but its those quick bursts that can catch you off guard.

[tron777]

For the rest of the month, a weak system will pass thru tomorrow bringing perhaps a few flakes or a mix to northern posters. Not sure how far south the precip will make it but for us down here, it'll be mainly light rain if we see anything anyway. Then Sat night and Sun is the next rain maker that may end as some flakes on Monday of next week, esp for Northern posters.

[airwolf76]

the rest of the month looks pretty bland as far as anything wintery. the first couple weeks of February should be more appealing

[tron777]

the rest of the month looks pretty bland as far as anything wintery. the first couple weeks of February should be more appealing

Agreed as long as we get the right timing of the cold air and moisture. As you know, the timing for the most part this season has not been good. We'll see... Tues - Thurs or so of next week certainly holds interest. The rest of the month as you said is blahs-ville.

[tpweather]

Snow Showers have mainly stayed north of the Ohio River today and are moving mainly west to east across the area. Will we get some sun this afternoon that could enhance the snow showers before drier air moves in. Only a few flurries at my house today. Still watching that 3p-6p period but after that time will the drier air have moved in to cut off any more snow chances overnight.

[tron777]

Snow Showers have mainly stayed north of the Ohio River today and are moving mainly west to east across the area. Will we get some sun this afternoon that could enhance the snow showers before drier air moves in. Only a few flurries at my house today. Still watching that 3p-6p period but after that time will the drier air have moved in to cut off any more snow chances overnight.

The snow squall parameter has been decent but the better lapse rates have continued to stay well to our south so that's the issue why we're not seeing the snow squalls I was expecting.

[tron777]

If the clouds can break up some, we should get down into the lower 20s tonight. Drier air is trying to punch in from the SW so we'll have to wait and see how that goes. Otherwise the weak system for tomorrow maybe a brief shower, better shot near and N of I-70 . Then the weekend rain maker Sat night into Sunday. Rainfall amounts with that aren't that impressive. Thinking in the 0.10-0.20" range at this time. The better forcing will be north in N ILL and S Wisc over into S Mich for a narrow band of moderate snowfall being possible.

[Browneyedgirl]

This is from Ohiohistorycentral.org


In January and February 1978, a series of three storms hit the United States Midwest or the Northeast. These storms were some of the most severe winter events to occur in recent history, and collectively are known as the Blizzard of 1978.

The first storm avoided Ohio, targeting the Northeast. From January 19 to 21, twenty-one inches of snow fell in parts of the region. This was a forty-eight-hour record for snowfall.

The second storm found Ohio in its path. From January 25 to 27, between one and three feet of snow fell in Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Winds averaged between fifty and seventy miles per hour, creating snowdrifts as deep as twenty-five feet. With temperatures already hovering near zero, the wind chill was deadly, reaching sixty degrees Fahrenheit below zero. Thousands of people were stranded in their cars and in their homes. For the first time in its history, the entire Ohio Turnpike closed due to the blizzard's severity. One semi-truck driver was buried inside of his truck by a snowdrift. Rescuers did not discover him for almost one week. Thousands of homes and businesses lost electricity. As the storm moved eastward, warmer temperatures converted the snow to ice, paralyzing the Northeast. Over seventy people died in this storm; fifty-one of the victims were in Ohio.

Approximately three weeks after this storm, a television special titled "Blizzard" aired, describing the storm in Ohio. The program stated:

A storm of unprecedented magnitude . . . that is what the National Weather Service terms the blizzard, which whipped Ohio last month. What occurred on January 26th, 1978 in Ohio was not a blizzard. What did occur was even rarer and even more dangerous: a severe blizzard . . . the worst of winter storms.
The National Weather Service defines a "severe blizzard" as a storm with winds of 45 miles per hour or greater; a great density of falling or blowing snow; and temperatures of 10 degrees or less.
In fact, winds gusted to more than 100 miles per hour over much of the state, with sustained winds in the 45-60 mph range. Record snowfalls were recorded in many areas and all-time low barometric pressure records were shattered as the intense storm whipped the state . . . The Blizzard of 1978 was, in fact, the worst storm to ever occur in Ohio.
The final storm targeted the Northeastern coastline of the United States and occurred during the second week of February. One to three feet of snow fell in this blizzard. Fifty-four people died, and the storm destroyed approximately two thousand homes. The blizzard caused more than one billion dollars in damage.

[tron777]

Love reading about those big storms that winter. I was too young to remember that storm (2 years old) and my Dad was stationed in AZ in the Airforce that winter so my folks missed out on it. I hope I am alive long enough to see a storm of similar magnitude again.

[tpweather]

This is from Ohiohistorycentral.org


In January and February 1978, a series of three storms hit the United States Midwest or the Northeast. These storms were some of the most severe winter events to occur in recent history, and collectively are known as the Blizzard of 1978.

The first storm avoided Ohio, targeting the Northeast. From January 19 to 21, twenty-one inches of snow fell in parts of the region. This was a forty-eight-hour record for snowfall.

The second storm found Ohio in its path. From January 25 to 27, between one and three feet of snow fell in Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Winds averaged between fifty and seventy miles per hour, creating snowdrifts as deep as twenty-five feet. With temperatures already hovering near zero, the wind chill was deadly, reaching sixty degrees Fahrenheit below zero. Thousands of people were stranded in their cars and in their homes. For the first time in its history, the entire Ohio Turnpike closed due to the blizzard's severity. One semi-truck driver was buried inside of his truck by a snowdrift. Rescuers did not discover him for almost one week. Thousands of homes and businesses lost electricity. As the storm moved eastward, warmer temperatures converted the snow to ice, paralyzing the Northeast. Over seventy people died in this storm; fifty-one of the victims were in Ohio.

Approximately three weeks after this storm, a television special titled "Blizzard" aired, describing the storm in Ohio. The program stated:

A storm of unprecedented magnitude . . . that is what the National Weather Service terms the blizzard, which whipped Ohio last month. What occurred on January 26th, 1978 in Ohio was not a blizzard. What did occur was even rarer and even more dangerous: a severe blizzard . . . the worst of winter storms.
The National Weather Service defines a "severe blizzard" as a storm with winds of 45 miles per hour or greater; a great density of falling or blowing snow; and temperatures of 10 degrees or less.
In fact, winds gusted to more than 100 miles per hour over much of the state, with sustained winds in the 45-60 mph range. Record snowfalls were recorded in many areas and all-time low barometric pressure records were shattered as the intense storm whipped the state . . . The Blizzard of 1978 was, in fact, the worst storm to ever occur in Ohio.
The final storm targeted the Northeastern coastline of the United States and occurred during the second week of February. One to three feet of snow fell in this blizzard. Fifty-four people died, and the storm destroyed approximately two thousand homes. The blizzard caused more than one billion dollars in damage.

Thanks for the story. Yes I was able to live in that time period and being such a weather nut I was in awe watching the storm. Snow drifts blocked the front door and the drifts were just amazing. The guys I hung around with back then and we built a camp in the summer of 77. Lucky we put a fireplace in the structure as we spent much of the winter there. All I had was a tee-shirt,jeans and a jean jacket and even with that kind of cold I never remember feeling cold. Teenage years were great

[tron777]

Thanks for the story. Yes I was able to live in that time period and being such a weather nut I was in awe watching the storm. Snow drifts blocked the front door and the drifts were just amazing. The guys I hung around with back then and we built a camp in the summer of 77. Lucky we put a fireplace in the structure as we spent much of the winter there. All I had was a tee-shirt,jeans and a jean jacket and even with that kind of cold I never remember feeling cold. Teenage years were great

Sigh... I've always known I was born a generation too late. I would have been a great Baby Boomer instead of a Gen X'er.

[snowbo]

Thanks for the story. Yes I was able to live in that time period and being such a weather nut I was in awe watching the storm. Snow drifts blocked the front door and the drifts were just amazing. The guys I hung around with back then and we built a camp in the summer of 77. Lucky we put a fireplace in the structure as we spent much of the winter there. All I had was a tee-shirt,jeans and a jean jacket and even with that kind of cold I never remember feeling cold. Teenage years were great

Sigh... I've always known I was born a generation too late. I would have been a great Baby Boomer instead of a Gen X'er.

Said it before and I'll say it again...Greatest single day of my life!

[tron777]

Another skiff of snow this morning and 19 degrees for my low. Street even has a bit on it also. My pick day of the weekend is Saturday! Should hit 50 degrees so get out and enjoy it before some light rain comes in for Sunday.

[Bgoney]

Looks like we Hit Our coldest low of January (CVG) a very average 20 degrees. From the looks of it that will be the lowest we get. If so I'm sure that will be in the top 5 at least, warmest low temp for a January. I went back a long ways and checked and 2006 also only had a low of 20, and 1989 had a low of 19.

[tron777]

Looks like we Hit Our coldest low of January (CVG) a very average 20 degrees. From the looks of it that will be the lowest we get. If so I'm sure that will be in the top 5 at least, warmest low temp for a January. I went back a long ways and checked and 2006 also only had a low of 20, and 1989 had a low of 19.

Wow! If I remember right, the 88-89 winter and 05-06 winters weren't very good around here. I guess we honestly should be fortunate, we're doing as well as we are (using CVG's stats).