Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23

[tpweather]

Temp up to a balmy 38. Rather fast rise early on and of course the leveling off of temps. By this evening should be in the mid-upper 30's and then if we get that dynamic cooling in the early morning hours you can see us getting near the 32 degree mark for a few hours before we rise once again.

[tron777]

Too bad we got all this sun today to melt the snowpack prior to this storm coming in.

[wrmwxfreak]

I have to agree with your update Trev as much as it pains me to do so. We've talked about this for days that the faster the low gets going, the less snowy of an outcome it would be. That is exactly what we are seeing play out on guidance last night and again today.

Is this just for the Metro, Les or for all of us? We are still under a Winter Storm Warning, and they are saying 4-6 inches...

NWS ILN will update at some point this afternoon. We'll just have to wait and see what direction they go in. If I was a Pro Met and had to make the call, I'd go with an advisory and drop the warning.

I was wondering about that...

[Trevor]

I have to agree with your update Trev as much as it pains me to do so. We've talked about this for days that the faster the low gets going, the less snowy of an outcome it would be. That is exactly what we are seeing play out on guidance last night and again today.

Is this just for the Metro, Les or for all of us? We are still under a Winter Storm Warning, and they are saying 4-6 inches...

NWS ILN will update at some point this afternoon. We'll just have to wait and see what direction they go in. If I was a Pro Met and had to make the call, I'd go with an advisory and drop the warning.

I was wondering about that...

I was discussing this with Les and we are in agreement. They may just let it ride due to uncertainties and that’s not a bad call either. But my confidence in anyone in Hamilton Co hitting WSW criteria is pretty low.

[jjfight]

ILN's tweet at 1:10pm is still calling for 4-6" along and NW of 71.

[fyrfyter]

I have to agree with your update Trev as much as it pains me to do so. We've talked about this for days that the faster the low gets going, the less snowy of an outcome it would be. That is exactly what we are seeing play out on guidance last night and again today.

Is this just for the Metro, Les or for all of us? We are still under a Winter Storm Warning, and they are saying 4-6 inches...

NWS ILN will update at some point this afternoon. We'll just have to wait and see what direction they go in. If I was a Pro Met and had to make the call, I'd go with an advisory and drop the warning.

I was wondering about that...

I was discussing this with Les and we are in agreement. They may just let it ride due to uncertainties and that’s not a bad call either. But my confidence in anyone in Hamilton Co hitting WSW criteria is pretty low.

Crosby/Harrison/Far extents of Whitewater Twp and even that might be a stretch.

[wrmwxfreak]

I have to agree with your update Trev as much as it pains me to do so. We've talked about this for days that the faster the low gets going, the less snowy of an outcome it would be. That is exactly what we are seeing play out on guidance last night and again today.

Is this just for the Metro, Les or for all of us? We are still under a Winter Storm Warning, and they are saying 4-6 inches...

NWS ILN will update at some point this afternoon. We'll just have to wait and see what direction they go in. If I was a Pro Met and had to make the call, I'd go with an advisory and drop the warning.

I was wondering about that...

I was discussing this with Les and we are in agreement. They may just let it ride due to uncertainties and that’s not a bad call either. But my confidence in anyone in Hamilton Co hitting WSW criteria is pretty low.

I'm not in Hamilton County. I'm in Warren County in Middletown, Ohio. That's why I was asking if the snow totals were looking to be less for us as well as the Metro.

[tpweather]

BTW I was looking in my closet earlier and found some classified documents. FBI is on the way. I mentioned this since they also found some in former VP Pence house today.

[tron777]

BTW I was looking in my closet earlier and found some classified documents. FBI is on the way. I mentioned this since they also found some in former VP Pence house today.

So that's what happened to the 12Z Euro!

[Trevor]

@wrmwxfreak, adjustments down for all.

18z NAM is in and there ya have it.

[tpweather]

BTW I was looking in my closet earlier and found some classified documents. FBI is on the way. I mentioned this since they also found some in former VP Pence house today.

So that's what happened to the 12Z Euro!

You never want to open China's closet though. lol

[fyrfyter]

17z HRRR is actually trying to diminish the dry slot. This might be interesting.

37FF857B-38D8-4E63-836E-65948BD08094.jpeg

[tron777]

BTW I was looking in my closet earlier and found some classified documents. FBI is on the way. I mentioned this since they also found some in former VP Pence house today.

So that's what happened to the 12Z Euro!

You never want to open China's closet though. lol

No doubt!!! You might just find Putin in there too.

[tron777]

@wrmwxfreak, adjustments down for all.

18z NAM is in and there ya have it.

How did you get that? It doesn't start usually until like 2:45 pm give or take.

[Closet Meteorologist]

Update I posted in the group chat of friends and fam:

Little update re: winter storm. My confidence in hitting 3 or 4” in the 275 loop is decreasing based on newer model guidance, so I am going to adjust my forecast down from 2-5” to 1-4”. That’s a bigger range than I’d typically like to go with, but the temperature profile around the area is going to be extremely sensitive. Razor thin margin. I’m thinking a little more sleet and even some freezing rain will mix in and cut down on snow totals due to warmer air aloft getting involved.

If we stay snow longer, the higher end of the range will play out and if we mix to other precip types sooner, the lower end. Still looking very messy for the morning commute, but sleet is much more manageable than snow. Some models are still colder and giving us the higher end but I’m not super confident in that occurring. I’m playing my cards on the lower end of the range (inch or two) with sleet and some freezing rain before we switch to Plain Jane rain/drizzle by mid morning.

But like I said, razor thin margin we are talking here.

I see you live in Lebanon like me...are we gonna see closer to 3-4" or is it more likely 2-3"?

[Trevor]

@wrmwxfreak, adjustments down for all.

18z NAM is in and there ya have it.

How did you get that? It doesn't start usually until like 2:45 pm give or take.

Good point

That’s an old run. Maybe a premonition? Lol

[Bgoney]

43 beautiful degrees here

[tron777]

@wrmwxfreak, adjustments down for all.

18z NAM is in and there ya have it.

How did you get that? It doesn't start usually until like 2:45 pm give or take.

Good point

That’s an old run. Maybe a premonition?

Thanks! I thought something was up. Heck, the 18Z HRRR is only out to Hour 2 on DuPage's site.

[tron777]

43 beautiful degrees here

Ditto that for my hood.

[Trevor]

Update I posted in the group chat of friends and fam:

Little update re: winter storm. My confidence in hitting 3 or 4” in the 275 loop is decreasing based on newer model guidance, so I am going to adjust my forecast down from 2-5” to 1-4”. That’s a bigger range than I’d typically like to go with, but the temperature profile around the area is going to be extremely sensitive. Razor thin margin. I’m thinking a little more sleet and even some freezing rain will mix in and cut down on snow totals due to warmer air aloft getting involved.

If we stay snow longer, the higher end of the range will play out and if we mix to other precip types sooner, the lower end. Still looking very messy for the morning commute, but sleet is much more manageable than snow. Some models are still colder and giving us the higher end but I’m not super confident in that occurring. I’m playing my cards on the lower end of the range (inch or two) with sleet and some freezing rain before we switch to Plain Jane rain/drizzle by mid morning.

But like I said, razor thin margin we are talking here.

I see you live in Lebanon like me...are we gonna see closer to 3-4" or is it more likely 2-3"?

I like 1-4” in general for most in the immediate tristate. Just too much uncertainty to narrow it down more than that.

[tpweather]

43 beautiful degrees here

Ditto that for my hood.

42 here and the snow is melting on the south side of the house very quickly

[tron777]

43 beautiful degrees here

Ditto that for my hood.

42 here and the snow is melting on the south side of the house very quickly

Yes Sir! Hopefully we can whiten the ground up again on Thursday.

[BookNerdCarp]

I just pulled the white flag out of the drawer. Should I let it sail or not!?!?!

[tpweather]

43 beautiful degrees here

Ditto that for my hood.

42 here and the snow is melting on the south side of the house very quickly

Yes Sir! Hopefully we can whiten the ground up again on Thursday.

Les as we know from Saturday temperature before a storm makes a difference especially on the roads. We talked about this Saturday as temps drop quickly in the evening and then got a little milder overnight before the dynamic cooling. Today a different story with sun the temps are rising and will not drop much this evening. So even if we get the dynamic cooling the roads themselves may fare better this time around.

[tpweather]

I just pulled the white flag out of the drawer. Should I let it sail or not!?!?!

Not sure and all I have is a red flag when I want to challenge my wife on something. I usually lose those challenges and only get 2 a week