Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23

[BookNerdCarp]

I think the afternoon update from NWS will be interesting.

[tron777]

Been busy at work and have not read or watched tv too much just a quick question how far North and West for bigger accumulations as I am in southern Franklin County in Indiana just above Batesville? Thanks in advance

Hey Pepper! Good to see to you. I think your area is in line for something in that 3-6" range.

[fyrfyter]

15z HRRR barely gives a dusting, then a break and then we go to mix. Not good for any snow potential, definitely starting to see the ice potential.

floop-hrrr-2023012415.ref1km_ptype.us_ov.gif

[Trevor]

15z HRRR barely gives a dusting, then a break and then we go to mix. Not good for any snow potential, definitely starting to see the ice potential.

floop-hrrr-2023012415.ref1km_ptype.us_ov.gif

Ouch.

[Trevor]

Def a sleet signal in there, @Aaron

[tpweather]

15z HRRR barely gives a dusting, then a break and then we go to mix. Not good for any snow potential, definitely starting to see the ice potential.

floop-hrrr-2023012415.ref1km_ptype.us_ov.gif

I believe what you are seeing is at the end of the run we are about to get those few hours of dynamic cooling so once this model goes out a few more hours we will see the snow and yes I believe sleet involved. Louisville may be more sleet than snow imo and here a few hours of snow then some sleet and then to all rain. I believe that is how the model will play this out and we will see by 3 or 4pm today.

[Trevor]

15z HRRR barely gives a dusting, then a break and then we go to mix. Not good for any snow potential, definitely starting to see the ice potential.

floop-hrrr-2023012415.ref1km_ptype.us_ov.gif

I believe what you are seeing is at the end of the run we are about to get those few hours of dynamic cooling so once this model goes out a few more hours we will the snow and yes I believe sleet involved. Louisville may be more sleet than snow imo and here a few hours of snow then some sleet and then to all rain. I believe that is how the model will play this out and we will see by 3 or 4pm today.

Not so sure about that. The high-res NAM is a bit colder but a pretty close match to the HRRR. Quick snow to sleet/freezing rain then rain.

[young pup]

This is going to be a great storm. A lot of clients will be calling for sure. lol Oh well, I can't control what time this comes in.

[tron777]

Def a sleet signal in there, @Aaron

You know my love affair with sleet! Luckily it won't be a ton and it'll all melt once we warm up.

[tpweather]

15z HRRR barely gives a dusting, then a break and then we go to mix. Not good for any snow potential, definitely starting to see the ice potential.

floop-hrrr-2023012415.ref1km_ptype.us_ov.gif

I believe what you are seeing is at the end of the run we are about to get those few hours of dynamic cooling so once this model goes out a few more hours we will the snow and yes I believe sleet involved. Louisville may be more sleet than snow imo and here a few hours of snow then some sleet and then to all rain. I believe that is how the model will play this out and we will see by 3 or 4pm today.

Not so sure about that. The high-res NAM is a bit colder but a pretty close match to the HRRR. Quick snow to sleet/freezing rain then rain.

Trev, not sure what you met about this post. Seems what I mentioned is similar to your post.

[tron777]

Update from the boys and they are raising the same concerns that we are on here:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
Expecting a dry forecast through this time with the possible
exception of the far southwest CWA covering the lower Whitewater
Valley and portions of northern Kentucky west of the I-75
corridor. Indications are for this to be snow, but a thin line
of the rain/snow changeover runs along the Ohio River, cuts
south of the Cincy metro area and then extends ene.

High cloud cover will continue to overspread the region and
limit highs today to the mid 30s north and mid 40s south, in
conjunction with the snow cover. Morning forecast update bumped
these highs by 1-2 degrees across the board.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Went beyond the earlier period to raise overnight min temps to
show warmer readings in the south and keep the rain threat
within the warmer boundary layers. This effectively narrowed the
brief period of freezing rain that is possible before at or just
before daybreak.

[airwolf76]

start time here is around 9 am tomorrow

[tron777]

start time here is around 9 am tomorrow

Hopefully you don't get too warm either for sleet.

[Trevor]

Update I posted in the group chat of friends and fam:

Little update re: winter storm. My confidence in hitting 3 or 4” in the 275 loop is decreasing based on newer model guidance, so I am going to adjust my forecast down from 2-5” to 1-4”. That’s a bigger range than I’d typically like to go with, but the temperature profile around the area is going to be extremely sensitive. Razor thin margin. I’m thinking a little more sleet and even some freezing rain will mix in and cut down on snow totals due to warmer air aloft getting involved.

If we stay snow longer, the higher end of the range will play out and if we mix to other precip types sooner, the lower end. Still looking very messy for the morning commute, but sleet is much more manageable than snow. Some models are still colder and giving us the higher end but I’m not super confident in that occurring. I’m playing my cards on the lower end of the range (inch or two) with sleet and some freezing rain before we switch to Plain Jane rain/drizzle by mid morning.

But like I said, razor thin margin we are talking here.

[fyrfyter]

We are definitely on the edge here. I think this is why Hamilton County is in the warning- good chance of a sharp gradient across the county from SE to NW.

[tron777]

I have to agree with your update Trev as much as it pains me to do so. We've talked about this for days that the faster the low gets going, the less snowy of an outcome it would be. That is exactly what we are seeing play out on guidance last night and again today.

[wrmwxfreak]

I have to agree with your update Trev as much as it pains me to do so. We've talked about this for days that the faster the low gets going, the less snowy of an outcome it would be. That is exactly what we are seeing play out on guidance last night and again today.

Is this just for the Metro, Les or for all of us? We are still under a Winter Storm Warning, and they are saying 4-6 inches...

[tron777]

I have to agree with your update Trev as much as it pains me to do so. We've talked about this for days that the faster the low gets going, the less snowy of an outcome it would be. That is exactly what we are seeing play out on guidance last night and again today.

Is this just for the Metro, Les or for all of us? We are still under a Winter Storm Warning, and they are saying 4-6 inches...

NWS ILN will update at some point this afternoon. We'll just have to wait and see what direction they go in. If I was a Pro Met and had to make the call, I'd go with an advisory and drop the warning.

[Trevor]

I have to agree with your update Trev as much as it pains me to do so. We've talked about this for days that the faster the low gets going, the less snowy of an outcome it would be. That is exactly what we are seeing play out on guidance last night and again today.

Is this just for the Metro, Les or for all of us? We are still under a Winter Storm Warning, and they are saying 4-6 inches...

This update was for Hamilton Co/Cincy since that’s where my friends/fam reside.

[tpweather]

Pressures are dropping quickest in southeast Texas around the Houston area with already a 1002 reading. This shows the pressure drops are further to the west than most models predicted. Over the next 6-10 hours most models had this riding up the Mississippi River between 1000 and 1004. Will watch this as time goes on but the further west development of the low does not usually bode well.

[snowbo]

14 minutes ago...

WeatherBELL@weatherbell

12z ECMWF data is delayed due to internet connectivity issues upstream at ECMWF. We are closely monitoring and will provide more info as soon as we can.

[tpweather]

Update I posted in the group chat of friends and fam:

Little update re: winter storm. My confidence in hitting 3 or 4” in the 275 loop is decreasing based on newer model guidance, so I am going to adjust my forecast down from 2-5” to 1-4”. That’s a bigger range than I’d typically like to go with, but the temperature profile around the area is going to be extremely sensitive. Razor thin margin. I’m thinking a little more sleet and even some freezing rain will mix in and cut down on snow totals due to warmer air aloft getting involved.

If we stay snow longer, the higher end of the range will play out and if we mix to other precip types sooner, the lower end. Still looking very messy for the morning commute, but sleet is much more manageable than snow. Some models are still colder and giving us the higher end but I’m not super confident in that occurring. I’m playing my cards on the lower end of the range (inch or two) with sleet and some freezing rain before we switch to Plain Jane rain/drizzle by mid morning.

But like I said, razor thin margin we are talking here.

Very similar to the one I sent to my neighbors here in northern Kentucky. I have rain switching a period of snow then a period of sleet and then rain. I have 1-3 inches in the Edgewood area but I believe fr/rain was never in my equation.

[tpweather]

14 minutes ago...

WeatherBELL@weatherbell

12z ECMWF data is delayed due to internet connectivity issues upstream at ECMWF. We are closely monitoring and will provide more info as soon as we can.

China written all over this lol

[tron777]

MD issued for heavy snow in Central and NE OK into NW AR:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0094.html

[Trevor]

Update I posted in the group chat of friends and fam:

Little update re: winter storm. My confidence in hitting 3 or 4” in the 275 loop is decreasing based on newer model guidance, so I am going to adjust my forecast down from 2-5” to 1-4”. That’s a bigger range than I’d typically like to go with, but the temperature profile around the area is going to be extremely sensitive. Razor thin margin. I’m thinking a little more sleet and even some freezing rain will mix in and cut down on snow totals due to warmer air aloft getting involved.

If we stay snow longer, the higher end of the range will play out and if we mix to other precip types sooner, the lower end. Still looking very messy for the morning commute, but sleet is much more manageable than snow. Some models are still colder and giving us the higher end but I’m not super confident in that occurring. I’m playing my cards on the lower end of the range (inch or two) with sleet and some freezing rain before we switch to Plain Jane rain/drizzle by mid morning.

But like I said, razor thin margin we are talking here.

Very similar to the one I sent to my neighbors here in northern Kentucky. I have rain switching a period of snow then a period of sleet and then rain. I have 1-3 inches in the Edgewood area but I believe fr/rain was never in my equation.

With marginal temperatures any freezing rain that does mix in won’t do much to be honest. It’d be brief and during the mixing transition to plain jane rain/drizzle. Just mentioned for technical purposes.