Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23

[Bgoney]

The low track is terrible , the saving grace for a front end thump of snow is it stays weak , (hopefully around a 1000) and our current region wide snow cover. If the low gets into the 990s the mid level warmth could come in sooner and cut down on hours of all snow and add more hours of any combination of a mix

[tron777]

0Z HRRR is coming in way more north now to match some of the other guidance. I was afraid of this. If the phasing occurs earlier, this is what is going to happen. The low on this model run tracks from the MS River to Paducah to the Indiana side of the Ohio. We've got a strong low of 996 MB on this run over South Central IN by early Wed afternoon that eventually tracks over SE IN then towards Dayton. This is not good for big snows in our forecast area. Big snows for IND > TOL > DTW.

[tron777]

The low track is terrible , the saving grace for a front end thump of snow is it stays weak , (hopefully around a 1000) and our current region wide snow cover. If the low gets into the 990s the mid level warmth could come in sooner and cut down on hours of all snow and add more hours of any combination of a mix

This is really looking like an advisory level event of 1-3" and that's a wrap. I hate to say it but the data on paper is showing that.

[tron777]

Great Post Les and snow cover already on the ground. We talked about this a little over the weekend and how it can affect other systems. Snow cover if deep enough and fairly recent can change the baroclinic zone and change the path of the low somewhat. The problem is some of the snow will melt on Tuesday and may be a mute point but yes snow cover can no doubt change the path of systems. Maybe some models picked up on this when you had the sort of weird solutions that went north to a certain extent and then a straight shot to the east.

A lot of the data Tim is showing the low getting cranked up too early. We knew this was a risk.

[tpweather]

The low track is terrible , the saving grace for a front end thump of snow is it stays weak , (hopefully around a 1000) and our current region wide snow cover. If the low gets into the 990s the mid level warmth could come in sooner and cut down on hours of all snow and add more hours of any combination of a mix

100p/c agree if the models are correct on the path. We need the system to stay weaker at 1000 or above. That is another reason this system is hard in terms of weather type compared to Sunday when it looked like if the precip was hard enough it was just a snow event. The snow cover is very limited just to the south of us as well and it makes Tuesday a day to watch for melting snow. If we get into the mid 40's that is a big warm up and quite a bit will have melted . I am going 38-42 as you get that early warm up in the morning but that comes to a halt almost in the afternoon hours.

Looking at both systems and timing wise may be perfect for a decent phase and if that happens most likely the system will be pulled north and the track will be more like some of the models are showing and would be more like a Memphis-Evansville-Ft Wayne before it really heads northeast. That is another problem we need to figure out by Tuesday.

[tron777]

I will see what the 0Z NAM says before heading to bed. Gotta work in the morning you know. Plus a long day of tracking tomorrow as well. I want to do the best I can to get this one right.

[tpweather]

I will see what the 0Z NAM says before heading to bed. Gotta work in the morning you know. Plus a long day of tracking tomorrow as well. I want to do the best I can to get this one right.

Same here Les and we are going to be busy for several weeks as no sign of boring weather. Whether we get lucky on the correct side of storms is not known but busy that is almost certain.

[tron777]

I will see what the 0Z NAM says before heading to bed. Gotta work in the morning you know. Plus a long day of tracking tomorrow as well. I want to do the best I can to get this one right.

Same here Les and we are going to be busy for several weeks as no sign of boring weather. Whether we get lucky on the correct side of storms is not known but busy that is almost certain.

I've said it several times today. We have a lot of nail biters coming down the pike. We got lucky on Sunday. I'm not feeling the luck this time around for Wed, but we've got plenty more chances coming in beginning with next Sunday and beyond.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and snow cover already on the ground. We talked about this a little over the weekend and how it can affect other systems. Snow cover if deep enough and fairly recent can change the baroclinic zone and change the path of the low somewhat. The problem is some of the snow will melt on Tuesday and may be a mute point but yes snow cover can no doubt change the path of systems. Maybe some models picked up on this when you had the sort of weird solutions that went north to a certain extent and then a straight shot to the east.

A lot of the data Tim is showing the low getting cranked up too early. We knew this was a risk.

Les you are correct and each run the southern low seems to be getting just a bit stronger with each run even before it crosses the Mississippi River. That is not good news locally if you are a snow lover. Still going to wait but these trends we see make sense and though sometimes you go that makes no sense at all but this time I am afraid that we may get less snow out of this but how low is still a work in progress.

[tpweather]

I will see what the 0Z NAM says before heading to bed. Gotta work in the morning you know. Plus a long day of tracking tomorrow as well. I want to do the best I can to get this one right.

Same here Les and we are going to be busy for several weeks as no sign of boring weather. Whether we get lucky on the correct side of storms is not known but busy that is almost certain.

I've said it several times today. We have a lot of nail biters coming down the pike. We got lucky on Sunday. I'm not feeling the luck this time around for Wed, but we've got plenty more chances coming in beginning with next Sunday and beyond.

I love Sunday's storm and next week in general but i will give you my thoughts on that after this system and of course in the main January thread.

[tpweather]

Bgoney made a great point about mid-level warming and how this could cut down on totals. Not only for us but folks in Dayton as well. Again Tuesday hopefully will answer a lot of questions but at this point my trend is to go lower on snowfall totals

[tron777]

Bgoney made a great point about mid-level warming and how this could cut down on totals. Not only for us but folks in Dayton as well. Again Tuesday hopefully will answer a lot of questions but at this point my trend is to go lower on snowfall totals

I'm not thrilled either. We knew this was a risk going in. High risk, high reward. We scored on Sunday. This time for Wed, I just don't see us scoring. 0Z NAM at 36 hours is already telling the tale, just like the 0Z HRRR, etc. etc.

[tpweather]

Bgoney made a great point about mid-level warming and how this could cut down on totals. Not only for us but folks in Dayton as well. Again Tuesday hopefully will answer a lot of questions but at this point my trend is to go lower on snowfall totals

I'm not thrilled either. We knew this was a risk going in. High risk, high reward. We scored on Sunday. This time for Wed, I just don't see us scoring. 0Z NAM at 36 hours is already telling the tale, just like the 0Z HRRR, etc. etc.

Les I was really expecting the NAM to show the storm even stronger at 36 hours so that threw me off a little. Will see how it goes out to hour 48 but a little pleasant surprise I was not expecting. Just to add and the nam shows this well with the strong jet to the east of the system. You can see that with the narrow but strong moisture output. Saying that it seems that jet heads right towards us but before it reaches us it moves off to the east. That would work in our favor. So this system has many conflicting outputs and another reason waiting for the mid-day runs to even try to make a forecast call for snow

[tron777]

Folks...

For an all snow event, the low MUST track SE of your location for your hoods to remain on the colder side of the storm. If it tracks right over you, you have some time for wintry fun before the changeover. If the low tracks NW of you, that is a death sentence for snow lovers. Sure, dynamic cooling, 700 MB frontogenic forcing, may give you a brief window but it won't last long. Trust me. The new data coming in is showing the death sentence. I don't sugar coat anything. You guys that have been on here for a long time know I tell it like it is. I'm sorry but that is what the data is showing.

This is honestly looking like a 1-3" deal for us in Cincinnati with a period of impactful weather but by late morning or lunchtime on Wed, we're good to go. I would certainly still be mindful of the AM Rush on Wed. Of course! But after that, we are good to go IMHO.

[tron777]

I also want to say that Wed night and Thurs, we will see back end snow showers that could put down light accumulations. That is still there in the data even on the 0Z NAM. But the best QPF is certainly with the front end thump and I've already given my thoughts on that which aren't pretty for snow weenies like myself.

[tpweather]

Les very tough call at this time. The latest nam is more like the Memphis-Evansville-Ft Wayne track I mentioned and I can see this happening and no doubt would be a 1a-7a shot for us but do we get 6 hours of frozen precip or is just got down to 3 hours of snow and then switch. This is going to be fun on Tuesday

[tron777]

Les very tough call at this time. The latest nam is more like the Memphis-Evansville-Ft Wayne track I mentioned and I can see this happening and no doubt would be a 1a-7a shot for us but do we get 6 hours of frozen precip or is just got down to 3 hours of snow and then switch. This is going to be fun on Tuesday

Tim... the way I see it right now is if this new data is correct, it's an advisory level event of 1-3" for Cincinnati and that's a wrap until we see light accum on the back end. We have to get the track a hair SE of us for winter storm warning criteria to occur. Honestly, I'm not feeling good about it. Hopefully when I wake up in the morning we'll see those later phasing solutions occur but I highly doubt it. IMHO, the writing is on the wall.

[Trevor]

Oh boy this is exciting. Right on the line. For those that don’t follow the details as much, this will be a warm-front “induced” thump of snow followed by mixed precip then rain/drizzle as temps rise above freezing mid morning Wednesday. Fun stuff! Not.

After the evening runs, I still like the few inch thump, followed by some sleet and freezing rain crunch on top before things warm and everything melts off. Wednesday morning is going to be rough going.

Total slop fest by midday but roads should be fine. ILN’s placement of WSW is spot on in my opinion.

[airwolf76]

models are showing descent wrap around snows with this system

[fyrfyter]

I’m a bit surprised they ran the warning all the way down to Hamilton County.

AEE56E62-C4A6-4B9A-8C2D-C59684ECACE9.jpeg

[Bgoney]

No changes for me from 24 hrs ago. A 4-6hr period of moderate to heavy precip in the predawn hours tomorrow. Ranges include 1-3" near the river and 2-5" zone north of there and a 3-6" zone NW of there

thump3.PNG

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a busy day ahead. Bgoney I like your map and seems very reasonable. Going to wait until the mid-day runs but what I see at the surface already is a system getting itself together. Yes there we be busts on snow totals and that is almost with every storm and even more so when you are dealing with precip types. I saw what the NWS sent out an a winter weather advisory seems correct at this point. I do believe the one area that is sort of forgotten will be the wind on Wednesday.

[mikeyp]

06 RGEM is nice

[tpweather]

06 RGEM is nice

Great Post and the reason is the CMC has the storm track about 75 miles further southeast. If this were correct then snow totals would need to be adjusted.

[tpweather]

06 RGEM is nice

Great Post and the reason is the CMC has the storm track about 75 miles further southeast. If this were correct then snow totals would need to be adjusted.

Just to add the Euro overnight is a tad further east as well. Not by much but is not pulled as far north before turning northeast and even the gfs I believe is sort going with the Euro and it only gets pulled so far north before heading northeast. These are minor movements but can change the forecast in certain areas. So overnight I would say the models have moved somewhat but I caution these changes can switch back as the storm gets going today.