January 2023 Weather Discussion

[Trevor]

Daddy likey.

There you go Bgoney! Trev finally came out to play!

[Bgoney]

Daddy likey.

There you go Bgoney! Trev finally came out to play!

The Bat signal worked

I'm wondering if the SPC should expand the slight risk and enhanced even further south

[Trevor]

Daddy likey.

There you go Bgoney! Trev finally came out to play!

The Bat signal worked

I'm wondering if the SPC should expand the slight risk and enhanced even further south

I’ve been harping on this on social media since last night. The outlooks have continued to be tugged south and west in each outlook.

[Trevor]

No MCD out yet but I’d bet we are under a watch (probably tornado) within the next couple of hours.

[fyrfyter]

No MCD out yet but I’d bet we are under a watch (probably tornado) within the next couple of hours.

I’m guessing it won’t happen before 3pm. After they get data from the extra balloon.

[Trevor]

No MCD out yet but I’d bet we are under a watch (probably tornado) within the next couple of hours.

I’m guessing it won’t happen before 3pm. After they get data from the extra balloon.

That timing sounds about right. 60 and gusty here in Lebanon.

[Bgoney]

Have we ever had a SV TS watch in January.? A tornado watch?

[tpweather]

Have we ever had a SV TS watch in January.? A tornado watch?

My guess is yes on both accounts but I don't remember when.

[tron777]

61 here, dew of 45. Winds are picking up too. The 18Z sounding will be interesting! We should be able to see it on SPC's sounding page around 3pm I would assume. Starting to see a nice CU field over Central IN on visible satellite.

[tron777]

Radar already shows a line of showers developing over Western IN ahead of the cold front.

[tpweather]

I see so far both the gfs and cmc have the system next week getting stronger and quicker so they both cut just to the west of us. Will the Euro make it a trifecta or go its own way.

[tron777]

Most everyone now has SB CAPE values of 100 J/kg to work with. That is increasing with a small area of 250 J/kg now over West Central Ohio. LI's of around -2 also showing up to our SW over SW Indiana. Freezing levels are down to around 6,000 feet now for everyone. Lapse rates are steepening too as we have talked about.

lllr_sf.gif

[fyrfyter]

D2B79A80-AB92-4D64-BBCA-74CDB53B6E22.gif

MD is incoming, meaning a watch is incoming as well…

ACUS11 KWNS 191813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191813
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-192015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0078
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the middle Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 191813Z - 192015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for scattered strong/severe wind gusts will
increase this afternoon in parts of the middle Ohio Valley. Though
more marginal threats, a tornado or two and large hail may also
occur. A watch is likely in the next hour.

DISCUSSION...A compact shortwave trough is pivoting around the main
upper-level low within the Upper-Midwest. Water vapor imagery shows
this feature moving through central Illinois at present. At the
surface, a broad area low pressure is present within the lower Great
Lakes. A secondary cold front is now entering western Indiana with
visible/infrared satellite indicating some gradual deepening of
cumulus along the boundary. Temperatures have warmed into the upper
50s F and lower 60s F seem possible ahead of this activity. Even
with these warmer temperatures than guidance forecast this morning,
dewpoints have also mixed out into the low/mid 40s F. The net effect
should should mean limited buoyancy of 250 to at most 500 J/kg
MLCAPE.

The primary concern with convection as it continues to deepen this
afternoon will be strong to severe wind gusts. Storm motions coupled
with 40-50 kts in the lowest 3 km (already sampled by KVWX VWP),
will promote potential for wind gusts of 50-60 kts and isolated
higher gusts possible. In response to the shortwave trough, some
slight backing of surface winds has been noted in central Indiana.
This trend should continue to the east as the wave progresses. As
such, some potential for isolated tornado activity will exist. -25 C
temperatures aloft could also promote marginally severe hail.

..Wendt/Grams.. 01/19/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 39228648 39408648 39558646 40368583 41068443 41168338
40928222 40518188 40008184 39308284 38698412 38468503
38588588 39228648

[tron777]

Quick 12Z Euro check for Sunday and the model continues the weak look to the entire system with some light snow and rain possible. Really, nothing to write home about to be honest. Now back to the Heat Miser Show already in progress.

[Trevor]

D2B79A80-AB92-4D64-BBCA-74CDB53B6E22.gif

MD is incoming, meaning a watch is incoming as well…

ACUS11 KWNS 191813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191813
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-192015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0078
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the middle Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 191813Z - 192015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for scattered strong/severe wind gusts will
increase this afternoon in parts of the middle Ohio Valley. Though
more marginal threats, a tornado or two and large hail may also
occur. A watch is likely in the next hour.

DISCUSSION...A compact shortwave trough is pivoting around the main
upper-level low within the Upper-Midwest. Water vapor imagery shows
this feature moving through central Illinois at present. At the
surface, a broad area low pressure is present within the lower Great
Lakes. A secondary cold front is now entering western Indiana with
visible/infrared satellite indicating some gradual deepening of
cumulus along the boundary. Temperatures have warmed into the upper
50s F and lower 60s F seem possible ahead of this activity. Even
with these warmer temperatures than guidance forecast this morning,
dewpoints have also mixed out into the low/mid 40s F. The net effect
should should mean limited buoyancy of 250 to at most 500 J/kg
MLCAPE.

The primary concern with convection as it continues to deepen this
afternoon will be strong to severe wind gusts. Storm motions coupled
with 40-50 kts in the lowest 3 km (already sampled by KVWX VWP),
will promote potential for wind gusts of 50-60 kts and isolated
higher gusts possible. In response to the shortwave trough, some
slight backing of surface winds has been noted in central Indiana.
This trend should continue to the east as the wave progresses. As
such, some potential for isolated tornado activity will exist. -25 C
temperatures aloft could also promote marginally severe hail.

..Wendt/Grams.. 01/19/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 39228648 39408648 39558646 40368583 41068443 41168338
40928222 40518188 40008184 39308284 38698412 38468503
38588588 39228648

[tron777]

12Z Euro for next week's system has brief snow and sleet then going over to rain as the low cuts into Western KY then passes SE of Cincinnati. An IND Special on this run. Returning you now to our t-storm coverage in progress.

[Bgoney]

Add SHERBE to the list of impressive parameters

Screenshot_20230119-133504_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230119-133411_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

T-storm Watch issued effective until 7pm....

[young pup]

T Storm watch with a chance of some snow flurries later. Never have I seen that before.

[tron777]

Wow! The Watch discussion has significant scattered wind gusts to 80 mph possible listed in it. Check it out!

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0026.html

[young pup]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 26
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Indiana
Far northern Kentucky
Western Ohio

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
700 PM EST.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Low-topped convection should intensify and develop into a
broken band of thunderstorms across eastern Indiana and far northern
Kentucky, then quickly move east across western Ohio. Damaging winds
will be the primary hazard.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south of
Muncie IN to 30 miles south of Mansfield OH. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

[young pup]

Wow! The Watch discussion has significant scattered wind gusts to 80 mph possible listed in it. Check it out!

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0026.html

Guess we posted at the same time. Wow is all that comes to mind.

[MVWxObserver]

Greenville in a Slight zone and Bellefontaine, Springfield, Sidney, Troy and Urbana in Enhanced. Xenia on a borderline of Slight / Enhanced.

Currently 57 with a DP of 39 here in G'ville and DAY at 60 with a DP of 41.

[Trevor]

T Storm watch with a chance of some snow flurries later. Never have I seen that before.

It’s more common than you’d think. Not out of the ordinary at all around these latitudes. We just haven’t had much in the way of cold season severe events in recent years so it’s easy to forget.

[dce]

12Z Euro for next week's system has brief snow and sleet then going over to rain as the low cuts into Western KY then passes SE of Cincinnati. An IND Special on this run. Returning you now to our t-storm coverage in progress.

6 days out. More adjustments to come.