January 2023 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

12z EU finally showing something that could have a potential wintry event about a week from now

[dce]

500mb pattern shift late week shows the long Aleutian trough pattern breaking down and a ridge develop on the west coast, bit that quickly retrograde to the Aleutian chain allowing a trough out west to deepen and a SEridge to begin. Notice the troughs moving into the center of the country and then lifting north instead of digging eastward.. EPS

eps_z500a_namer_fh30-276.gif
eps_T2m_us_fh30-276.gif

Today's GFS and CMC reflect that pattern perfectly. We get rained on with lows tracking to our west. We chill down after the low moves through. The next low comes up just to our west and we get rained on again. Rinse and repeat. Terrible pattern for the Ohio Valley snow lovers. Great pattern for the Midwest and Upper Mississippi Valley.

[tpweather]

Yes and if we can get that cold to dig just east of the Rockies then the pattern changes enough where we can be on the cold side of things. Euro getting close for sure and we will see over the next few days. BTW GO MIAMI!!!

[dce]

Yes and if we can get that cold to dig just east of the Rockies then the pattern changes enough where we can be on the cold side of things. Euro getting close for sure and we will see over the next few days. BTW GO MIAMI!!!

The Euro came in much farther east with the cold air as compared to the GFS and CMC pertaining to my previous post. The Euro looks very promising with moisture coming up and over the cold air in place. I'm rooting for the Euro.

As for Miami, not so much. Lol!

[MVWxObserver]

Thank you very much Bgoney, Bo, Pete and Linn!!

ITS HAPPY WHODEY TIME ITS HAPPY WHODEY TIME!!!!

GONNA DE-FEATHER THOSE RAVENS!!!!

Currently at the freezing mark here in G'ville and progged for around 26 on MLK Jr Day morning.

[tron777]

Good evening! Looks like CB is going with the ?Euro and doesn't believe the more NW GFS and CMC.


https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=57644


The Pac Jet is going to weaken but maybe too much to allow for a big -PNA and a SE ridge. Cheering for the Euro right now that is for sure in the extended range. WHODEY!

[airwolf76]

time to start model hugging . go king EURO !

[Bgoney]

The EUs evolution as a new 500mb pattern sets up for the lower 48 and temp response over the next 10 days

floop-ecmwf_full-2023011600.500h_anom.na.gif

floop-ecmwf_full-2023011600.sfct-imp.conus.gif

[Bgoney]

Coldest of the cold still going strong in Siberia/Russia , reaching into Asia, India
Extreme #cold in Siberia with -62.4°C recorded in Tongulakh, new all-time low at the station & new lowest temperature in the world in 2023!
It's the coldest temperature in Russia since 2002 & the coldest in January since 1982.
Also -60.5°C in Selagoncy, coldest since 1994.

Screenshot_20230116-082121_Twitter.jpg

[tpweather]

Coldest of the cold still going strong in Siberia/Russia , reaching into Asia, India
Extreme #cold in Siberia with -62.4°C recorded in Tongulakh, new all-time low at the station & new lowest temperature in the world in 2023!
It's the coldest temperature in Russia since 2002 & the coldest in January since 1982.
Also -60.5°C in Selagoncy, coldest since 1994.


Screenshot_20230116-082121_Twitter.jpg

Quite cold and that is of course -80 F. The good thing for us is that cold is not heading towards western Russia and eastern Europe. Over the past couple of weeks they felt some of that cold spill in those areas but the cold is shifting back east. Polar Vortex is very strong and again does it make it into the lower latitudes and if so where will this happen. Just to follow up and yes some of the cold did make it to parts of Asia and India like Bgoney so yes it did make some headway but its just a large area of cold. We always believe that India is hot but the northern mountains can be quite cold at times. Of course northern China is normally cold and has weather similar to the upper mid-west in the USA.

[tron777]

Good morning all and Happy MLK Day to you! A Holiday for me today so plenty of time to talk weather with you guys. A frosty 28 this morning here and at CVG. Enjoy the nice skies before clouds take over and rain moves in for the afternoon hours. Thinking sometime in that 2-4pm window. I like 0.25 to 0.50" range for most folks. This is not a very strong system so just a general light to moderate rain is expected.

A gorgeous Tuesday with sunshine and temps in that 55 to 60 degree range! It'll be breezy with gusty SW winds but for January it's still a nice day. Clouds are back on the increase for Wed with rain in the afternoon. A wet Wed night and a cold frontal passage Thurs morning. A few t-storms are possible as well with this system. Up to 1" of rain looks to be in the cards with this one. As far as any severe wx goes, SPC has an area from around Memphis TN to the south and SW highlighted but nothing close to the OV at this time.

Then... we're back to highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s. Any wintry weather to speak of? Why yes there is! The Euro continues to highlight that Sunday system just barely scraping us. GFS is coming around to a more wintry solution. CMC still a rain maker. Then, all models are hinting at another decent chance around Jan 25-26th. We still need to monitor how negative the PNA gets. That is going to determine how deep the trough is in the West. The deeper it is there, the more fighting with the SE Ridge for us and you know that means nothing but rain. Remember, this is going to be a high risk, high reward pattern. The rain / snow line will be close by us, it usually is. Some interesting times ahead for us in my mind as we continue to watch how this new pattern evolves. Plenty of cold air as Bgoney has shown us. Where is it going to go? That is our job to figure out and I think the core of it is over the West and Rockies with it slowly bleeding East. How far SE? The SE Ridge determines that, it's strength and position. The way I see this in my mind... this is going to be a monster winter storm pattern for either the Plains, Midwest or us. I'm just not 100% confident on where the baroclinic boundary will set up. More data is needed of course as we get closer.

MJO as of 1/14 per the Aussies, has tried to tickle weak Phase 8 but has since went back into the neutral circle. Bgoney has done a wonderful job leading the way in our discussion this winter. He's been dead on with his posts with regards to this. Modeling is still favoring a tour of 1, 2, 3 (Indian Ocean basically as we've been discussing) so we'll just have to wait and see what happens there. I trust nothing until I see some evidence with this.

We are also still monitoring the PV. It is still very strong right now but it is expected to weaken and stretch out again later this month. I'm not convinced we'll get a true split. I am on board for the stretching though and as long as we get that -EPO like back in December, the cold will come into the West thanks to the -PNA. (A +PNA would dump it further East) So we'll see folks. Despite all of the whining and crying you maybe reading over social media, you will find none of that here on AV. All it takes is 1 or 2 nice storms and you can get your seasonal snowfall average. That is usually how it goes for us anyway. We swing for the fences!

[tpweather]

Good morning Les and a wonderful post this morning. Really not much to add but the risk/reward is how it usually works in this area. The NAO has been very positive and seems to heading towards neutral and that is fine and the AO seems like it will be slightly negative but not like the mid-Dec when it was really negative. The PNA and I agree that can be key and would love to see a slightly positive one and models are hinting at that but we just need to wait on that development. Sometimes the cold in Siberia can end up in Alaska and that does not seem to be the case this go around and that is great news for us cold weather fans later this month and February. Alaska as a whole has been milder than normal but so has much of Europe and even with the new pattern they may get left out on some of the coldest air once again.

[tron777]

Good morning Les and a wonderful post this morning. Really not much to add but the risk/reward is how it usually works in this area. The NAO has been very positive and seems to heading towards neutral and that is fine and the AO seems like it will be slightly negative but not like the mid-Dec when it was really negative. The PNA and I agree that can be key and would love to see a slightly positive one and models are hinting at that but we just need to wait on that development. Sometimes the cold in Siberia can end up in Alaska and that does not seem to be the case this go around and that is great news for us cold weather fans later this month and February. Alaska as a whole has been milder than normal but so has much of Europe and even with the new pattern they may get left out on some of the coldest air once again.

The PNA is what worries me Tim having it go too far negative. I don't think it's going to be positive unfortunately. We never got the MJO to cooperate. The trough will be in the West IMO but that still doesn't mean we can't get snow. If it's weakly negative, that would be perfect for us. We are right on the edge of the cold and warmth. If the PNA is moderately negative or stronger in the negative range, then the SE ridge wins and we will be seeing a lot of rain storms. It's too early to know what'll happen yet.

[dce]

The PNA, according to NOAA, has been mostly on the slightly positive side until recently, but looks to head back positive in the coming days. That may help our cause.

[tron777]

Good morning Doug... the above forecasts that the CPC posts are from the GEFS. Here's the EPS from yesterday afternoon.

EPSPNAfromYesterday.jpg

Yes, we get the spike there too, which I am hoping helps us for Sunday, but it drops again and fairly negative too if that is correct. Granted it's an outdated run and the trends overnight in both the GEFS and EPS actually did improve. So some good news there anyway. We'll see what happens!

[dce]

Good morning Doug... the above forecasts that the CPC posts are from the GEFS. Here's the EPS from yesterday afternoon.


EPSPNAfromYesterday.jpg


Yes, we get the spike there too, which I am hoping helps us for Sunday, but it drops again and fairly negative too if that is correct. Granted it's an outdated run and the trends overnight in both the GEFS and EPS actually did improve. So some good news there anyway. We'll see what happens!

Ah. That's more like it! Doesn't look all that good does it? We know were the GFS ranks in the medium range. I'll trust the Euro saying it's going negative.

[tron777]

Good morning Doug... the above forecasts that the CPC posts are from the GEFS. Here's the EPS from yesterday afternoon.


EPSPNAfromYesterday.jpg


Yes, we get the spike there too, which I am hoping helps us for Sunday, but it drops again and fairly negative too if that is correct. Granted it's an outdated run and the trends overnight in both the GEFS and EPS actually did improve. So some good news there anyway. We'll see what happens!

Ah. That's more like it! Doesn't look all that good does it? We know were the GFS ranks in the medium range. I'll trust the Euro saying it's going negative.

It's an old run and you have to pay for it but if someone leaks it online and I find it, then I'll post it here. Anyway... the closer the ridge is to the West Coast, the better it is for us. The further offshore it is, the more the trough will dig into the West and pop the SE Ridge. I do think we've got a favorable window coming up from the 23rd thru the 27th or so with those couple of systems I mentioned this morning. Then after that, the PNA may drop and that is where my concern lies.

[airwolf76]

looks like snow and cold prospecs go up the last full week of this month

[tron777]

12Z OP GFS is back to getting out the boats again until the fantasy range. This model flip flops so bad. It's really, really bad. Not saying it is wrong, but it does change almost every 6 hours that the model is run. It is bringing in a piece of the PV into the Great Lakes. So we go from warm and wet to cold and dry. This model just needs to be taken out back like Old Yeller and have it put out of its misery.

[tron777]

12Z CMC is still a cutter for Sunday into Monday (22nd-23rd) then for the 25th-26th system, a much better shot at wintry weather on this run.

[tron777]

GEFS still has quite a spread as you would expect for Sunday / Monday's system but the vast majority of the SLP Cluster shows the low near us or SE of us. The mean has a track we don't see often. Straight north out of the Gulf and it passes thru our SE counties. I still have my one eye open on that system and the one around the 25-26th. That is when we get that PNA spike for those two systems before it drops back into negative territory again if some of the Teleconnection forecasts are right.

[Bgoney]

12Z OP GFS is back to getting out the boats again until the fantasy range. This model flip flops so bad. It's really, really bad. Not saying it is wrong, but it does change almost every 6 hours that the model is run. It is bringing in a piece of the PV into the Great Lakes. So we go from warm and wet to cold and dry. This model just needs to be taken out back like Old Yeller and have it put out of its misery.

Lol Les , I think the new update was performed by ACME of Looney tunes fame.
I haven't had the courage to post any maps from the GFS Op, still trying to figure out its strength and many weaknesses.
Still using the GEFs for help cause I think they're still separate from the update OP

[tron777]

12Z OP GFS is back to getting out the boats again until the fantasy range. This model flip flops so bad. It's really, really bad. Not saying it is wrong, but it does change almost every 6 hours that the model is run. It is bringing in a piece of the PV into the Great Lakes. So we go from warm and wet to cold and dry. This model just needs to be taken out back like Old Yeller and have it put out of its misery.

Lol Les , I think the new update was performed by ACME of Looney tunes fame.
I haven't had the courage to post any maps from the GFS Op, still trying to figure out its strength and many weaknesses.
Still using the GEFs for help cause I think they're still separate from the update OP

looney-tunes-coyote.gif

All joking aside... you're correct. GEFS has not been upgraded so it's still the older version and it actually hasn't been doing too awfully bad in terms of long range forecasting. OP GFS though, yeah... it's like the above GIF.

[tron777]

Many GEFS members for the 25-26th system showing a much better solution for wintry weather. So it's almost like you get the 22-23rd system to be the table setter so the next one right on its heels should come in further SE one would think. Not saying you can't get back to back cutters, you can, but I think we've got a shot here at one of these systems at least having the potential of panning out.

[Wxlrnr]

Is it just me or have the temperatures the past few days been lower than forecast? I remember yesterday was supposed to be in the low to mid 40s for tailgate and game time upper 30s. High here 39 with 32 at game time.

Also, I read an article about the eruption of the Tonga volcano. It was the tallest plume ever recorded at 35.4 miles high, into the mesoshere. No wonder the sunsets, when we can see them, are still pink

https://www.livescience.com/tonga-erupt ... plume-ever