January 2023 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good morning all! Not a lot of change to report in the overnight guidance. Don't expect a favorable pattern for snow lovers until we get to mid month and beyond. The next 10 days or so will continue to be seasonal to slightly above with possible chances for snow, but timing is everything with this pattern and you're really going to have to thread the needle to have a chance.

We are still watching the MJO to see how it will behave by then. If things break correctly, we'll have a much better last 10 days of January and perhaps early Feb as well. So that's where we're at with the longer term pattern. We are basically in watch and wait mode there at this time.

Yep, the first half is playing out like we thought , from a while back. Only thing I would add now since we're nearing the end of week one , is that I'm leaning on week 3 also having the Arctic closed for much of the lower 48. We talked about how the ALEUTIAN LOW pattern can be hard to break and it looks to hold on a bit longer still , the coldest air in the Nhemisphere will slowly work its way through Russia during the next 1-2 weeks into NW Canada. Then we need a mechanism set-up to transport it all the way down into Canada then the 48

I keep hearing talk on the "Weather Net" that a possible mechanism could be the PV elongating and getting stretched out again, like what we saw back in December. That allowed that nice blocking pattern to develop. However, I do remain skeptical of that happening since the PV is much stronger now then it was back in early December. We'll just have to wait and see. If you go by trends... since we have entered this Triple Dip Nina, January has been a warm month with winter making a nice come back in February. Will that be the case this year too? Time will tell.

Interesting with the PV. Back in late November and early December we had the PV but once it moved it became elongated like you mentioned. So yes we were in a great spot has it headed directly at us. The problem for long term cold was because the PV was elongated and was much easier to move out and it did very quickly. The current PV looks to be much stronger and usually you need something like a SSW event to take place. Again if this happens then we need to see where the PV heads too. Saying that this means that the PV will be in more of a circular form and once it settles somewhere in the lower latitudes it will tend to stay longer. We just need to see if this process happens and hopefully for winter weather lovers the PV heads for either south central or southeast Canada and brings a suitcase along as these can stay around for weeks not days like the one in December. Again no prediction as to the exact dates but I still believe we have a great spell of winter weather but maybe just a tad later then I thought back in December

[airwolf76]

i am not sold on any pattern change coming. i am thinking we get seasonal next week but then we warm back up the following week. there is support for this also

[tron777]

Good morning all! Not a lot of change to report in the overnight guidance. Don't expect a favorable pattern for snow lovers until we get to mid month and beyond. The next 10 days or so will continue to be seasonal to slightly above with possible chances for snow, but timing is everything with this pattern and you're really going to have to thread the needle to have a chance.

We are still watching the MJO to see how it will behave by then. If things break correctly, we'll have a much better last 10 days of January and perhaps early Feb as well. So that's where we're at with the longer term pattern. We are basically in watch and wait mode there at this time.

Yep, the first half is playing out like we thought , from a while back. Only thing I would add now since we're nearing the end of week one , is that I'm leaning on week 3 also having the Arctic closed for much of the lower 48. We talked about how the ALEUTIAN LOW pattern can be hard to break and it looks to hold on a bit longer still , the coldest air in the Nhemisphere will slowly work its way through Russia during the next 1-2 weeks into NW Canada. Then we need a mechanism set-up to transport it all the way down into Canada then the 48

I keep hearing talk on the "Weather Net" that a possible mechanism could be the PV elongating and getting stretched out again, like what we saw back in December. That allowed that nice blocking pattern to develop. However, I do remain skeptical of that happening since the PV is much stronger now then it was back in early December. We'll just have to wait and see. If you go by trends... since we have entered this Triple Dip Nina, January has been a warm month with winter making a nice come back in February. Will that be the case this year too? Time will tell.

Interesting with the PV. Back in late November and early December we had the PV but once it moved it became elongated like you mentioned. So yes we were in a great spot has it headed directly at us. The problem for long term cold was because the PV was elongated and was much easier to move out and it did very quickly. The current PV looks to be much stronger and usually you need something like a SSW event to take place. Again if this happens then we need to see where the PV heads too. Saying that this means that the PV will be in more of a circular form and once it settles somewhere in the lower latitudes it will tend to stay longer. We just need to see if this process happens and hopefully for winter weather lovers the PV heads for either south central or southeast Canada and brings a suitcase along as these can stay around for weeks not days like the one in December. Again no prediction as to the exact dates but I still believe we have a great spell of winter weather but maybe just a tad later then I thought back in December

I've been leaning in this direction as well. Our thoughts are still valid, but it maybe a week or two later then we expected. There is definitely a system to watch for later next week but where we go from there is still a bit of a question mark. We really just need some colder air to work with like 20s and 30s. It doesn't have to come from Siberia ala -30 wind chills like we had in December. We are still a few weeks away from trying to figure out when the next attack of arctic air will be (if there is indeed one that develops). Still thinking about the last 10 days of Jan and if that fails, then we'll kick the can to February which has been very good to us the last several winters.

[tron777]

i am not sold on any pattern change coming. i am thinking we get seasonal next week but then we warm back up the following week. there is support for this also

I don't think anyone is sold on it to be honest. We are just discussing the possibilities here. What you have said is definitely another possibility and I agree, there is some ensemble support for that. If correct, then the can would be kicked until February as I just mentioned.

[tron777]

12Z GFS is progressive so that system I mentioned for New England early next week (the table setter for us later next week) is out to sea and our system is able to cut right towards the block as a result and not get forced underneath the block which is what we need to have occur. So we get rain. The model senses the block and the system slows down and the upper low cuts off over us which eventually could lead to a changeover to snow depending on the ULL track.

[tron777]

12Z Canadian has a GFS-like solution towards the end of next week.

[tpweather]

Good afternoon and just looked at the longer term models and usually I have a strong take on what may happen even this far out but on this occasion I believe there is things that are not what we normally see and that is when the homework pays off. Yes I believe a storm will happen but I just don't feel comfortable in throwing out anything. So yes my grade at the moment is an I for incomplete

[tron777]

GEFS members are all over the place as you would expect towards the end of next week. The 12Z Euro run isn't too bad at all. The low tracks underneath the block as you would expect and heads towards the East Coast. We can score some snow out of the deal if the low track is right. The low slowly strengthens and does not weaken either which is nice to see. A very complex pattern. We still don't know how the wave earlier in the week will impact the set up for the bigger system towards the end of next week. Again, it's a thread the needle scenario and it's timing, timing, timing! We have scored before in an unfavorable pattern and that is how it is done. so far, I've seen two model camps. You've got the GFS and CMC wanting to try and cut the system, but then it can't cut because of the block, so the system slows down and cuts off (the upper low) over us. Rain to snow possible. Then the Euro which tracks the low to the south (could it be too far south and it's a swing and a miss? Yes) then turns east and then moves up along the Coast. Low track will determine where the swath of snow falls on the system's northern side. Just a bit south of us on this run of the Euro. No problems for me... both scenarios I have outlined here can give us some snow.

[tpweather]

GEFS members are all over the place as you would expect towards the end of next week. The 12Z Euro run isn't too bad at all. The low tracks underneath the block as you would expect and heads towards the East Coast. We can score some snow out of the deal if the low track is right. The low slowly strengthens and does not weaken either which is nice to see. A very complex pattern. We still don't know how the wave earlier in the week will impact the set up for the bigger system towards the end of next week. Again, it's a thread the needle scenario and it's timing, timing, timing! We have scored before in an unfavorable pattern and that is how it is done. so far, I've seen two model camps. You've got the GFS and CMC wanting to try and cut the system, but then it can't cut because of the block, so the system slows down and cuts off (the upper low) over us. Rain to snow possible. Then the Euro which tracks the low to the south (could it be too far south and it's a swing and a miss? Yes) then turns east and then moves up along the Coast. Low track will determine where the swath of snow falls on the system's northern side. Just a bit south of us on this run of the Euro. No problems for me... both scenarios I have outlined here can give us some snow.

Great Post Les and how strong does the high get to the northeast of us and when does it start to weaken. Looks busy late next week but what precedes over the next several days will have a big input on where a system may track. Normally the gfs is one to just push everything to the east and sort of surprising it has a cutter. The Euro is further south and believes the northeast High is really strong. The Cmc similar to the gfs which again those two don't dance together much. So yes in a pattern like next week you can get winter weather and though it may not be the coldest pattern in the world it looks cold enough imo northwest of where system finally decides to go. Can it go out to sea and sure that is possible and you just need to thrown out the possible solutions and see what happens.

[tron777]

12Z EPS SLP Clustering is supportive of the OP Euro with regards to late next week. I like where we sit. #NWTrend

EPS SLP Clusters.gif

[tron777]

GEFS members are all over the place as you would expect towards the end of next week. The 12Z Euro run isn't too bad at all. The low tracks underneath the block as you would expect and heads towards the East Coast. We can score some snow out of the deal if the low track is right. The low slowly strengthens and does not weaken either which is nice to see. A very complex pattern. We still don't know how the wave earlier in the week will impact the set up for the bigger system towards the end of next week. Again, it's a thread the needle scenario and it's timing, timing, timing! We have scored before in an unfavorable pattern and that is how it is done. so far, I've seen two model camps. You've got the GFS and CMC wanting to try and cut the system, but then it can't cut because of the block, so the system slows down and cuts off (the upper low) over us. Rain to snow possible. Then the Euro which tracks the low to the south (could it be too far south and it's a swing and a miss? Yes) then turns east and then moves up along the Coast. Low track will determine where the swath of snow falls on the system's northern side. Just a bit south of us on this run of the Euro. No problems for me... both scenarios I have outlined here can give us some snow.

Great Post Les and how strong does the high get to the northeast of us and when does it start to weaken. Looks busy late next week but what precedes over the next several days will have a big input on where a system may track. Normally the gfs is one to just push everything to the east and sort of surprising it has a cutter. The Euro is further south and believes the northeast High is really strong. The Cmc similar to the gfs which again those two don't dance together much. So yes in a pattern like next week you can get winter weather and though it may not be the coldest pattern in the world it looks cold enough imo northwest of where system finally decides to go. Can it go out to sea and sure that is possible and you just need to thrown out the possible solutions and see what happens.

If the Jan 11th wave doesn't turn into a 50/50 Low then the low for the end of next week that we are interested in, would go out to sea and not turn up the coast. I think that's what's happening on the GFS and CMC's solution. The models sense the block, but there is no 50/50 Low so instead of dropping the low SE like the Euro, both models cut the upper low off. The Euro I think has the 50/50 low from the 1/11 wave so the low drops more SE due to the blocking and everything is slowed down due to the 50/50 low so the low is able to climb up the coast a bit. A lot of moving parts for sure and it's going to be a headache for a while I'm afraid. I would not put my money on anything yet.

[tron777]

A lot of talk today has been about late next week (as it should be) but don't sleep on some flake action coming this evening. Indy radar showing a line of rain and snow showers with the upper low headed east bound. I am watching the SW end of the line (the tail) and I am noticing a little more development of the precip shield. Should that continue, we should see some snow showers this evening in that 6-9pm range across our forum area. It's not much but if you're a snow lover like me in a junk pattern you take what you can get. (Kind of like with this weekend's system in the other thread).

[tpweather]

GEFS members are all over the place as you would expect towards the end of next week. The 12Z Euro run isn't too bad at all. The low tracks underneath the block as you would expect and heads towards the East Coast. We can score some snow out of the deal if the low track is right. The low slowly strengthens and does not weaken either which is nice to see. A very complex pattern. We still don't know how the wave earlier in the week will impact the set up for the bigger system towards the end of next week. Again, it's a thread the needle scenario and it's timing, timing, timing! We have scored before in an unfavorable pattern and that is how it is done. so far, I've seen two model camps. You've got the GFS and CMC wanting to try and cut the system, but then it can't cut because of the block, so the system slows down and cuts off (the upper low) over us. Rain to snow possible. Then the Euro which tracks the low to the south (could it be too far south and it's a swing and a miss? Yes) then turns east and then moves up along the Coast. Low track will determine where the swath of snow falls on the system's northern side. Just a bit south of us on this run of the Euro. No problems for me... both scenarios I have outlined here can give us some snow.

Great Post Les and how strong does the high get to the northeast of us and when does it start to weaken. Looks busy late next week but what precedes over the next several days will have a big input on where a system may track. Normally the gfs is one to just push everything to the east and sort of surprising it has a cutter. The Euro is further south and believes the northeast High is really strong. The Cmc similar to the gfs which again those two don't dance together much. So yes in a pattern like next week you can get winter weather and though it may not be the coldest pattern in the world it looks cold enough imo northwest of where system finally decides to go. Can it go out to sea and sure that is possible and you just need to thrown out the possible solutions and see what happens.

If the Jan 11th wave doesn't turn into a 50/50 Low then the low for the end of next week that we are interested in, would go out to sea and not turn up the coast. I think that's what's happening on the GFS and CMC's solution. The models sense the block, but there is no 50/50 Low so instead of dropping the low SE like the Euro, both models cut the upper low off. The Euro I think has the 50/50 low from the 1/11 wave so the low drops more SE due to the blocking and everything is slowed down due to the 50/50 low so the low is able to climb up the coast a bit. A lot of moving parts for sure and it's going to be a headache for a while I'm afraid. I would not put my money on anything yet.

Agree Les that is the case imo concerning the 50/50. The high over southeast Canada is going to be a big player in the outcome. I would like to see it expand further west over southwest Ontario and this way the low will be unable to cut plus if you get a 50/50 low the high pressure may be to far west to push the 50/50 low northeast. Going to watch the NAO as well and its a little to positive at the moment but hopefully it trends towards neutral and this can help slow down the pattern

[tron777]

Water Vapor Loop shows the center of the Upper Low tracking across North Central IN near Lafayette, to probably a bit S of Ft. Wayne. It should move eastward towards Marion, OH probably across ILN's extreme N counties or CLE's extreme S counties.

Water Vapor.png

The actual radar is showing the tail expanding in rain shower coverage. This is a good thing. Rain / Snow line is roughly from west of Van Wert, OH SW to just NW of Muncie, IN over towards east of IND. Pretty much where the blue 1300 thickness line is.

thck.gif

Finally, here's the radar and notice the tail I was talking about.

Radar.gif

[tron777]

GEFS members are all over the place as you would expect towards the end of next week. The 12Z Euro run isn't too bad at all. The low tracks underneath the block as you would expect and heads towards the East Coast. We can score some snow out of the deal if the low track is right. The low slowly strengthens and does not weaken either which is nice to see. A very complex pattern. We still don't know how the wave earlier in the week will impact the set up for the bigger system towards the end of next week. Again, it's a thread the needle scenario and it's timing, timing, timing! We have scored before in an unfavorable pattern and that is how it is done. so far, I've seen two model camps. You've got the GFS and CMC wanting to try and cut the system, but then it can't cut because of the block, so the system slows down and cuts off (the upper low) over us. Rain to snow possible. Then the Euro which tracks the low to the south (could it be too far south and it's a swing and a miss? Yes) then turns east and then moves up along the Coast. Low track will determine where the swath of snow falls on the system's northern side. Just a bit south of us on this run of the Euro. No problems for me... both scenarios I have outlined here can give us some snow.

Great Post Les and how strong does the high get to the northeast of us and when does it start to weaken. Looks busy late next week but what precedes over the next several days will have a big input on where a system may track. Normally the gfs is one to just push everything to the east and sort of surprising it has a cutter. The Euro is further south and believes the northeast High is really strong. The Cmc similar to the gfs which again those two don't dance together much. So yes in a pattern like next week you can get winter weather and though it may not be the coldest pattern in the world it looks cold enough imo northwest of where system finally decides to go. Can it go out to sea and sure that is possible and you just need to thrown out the possible solutions and see what happens.

If the Jan 11th wave doesn't turn into a 50/50 Low then the low for the end of next week that we are interested in, would go out to sea and not turn up the coast. I think that's what's happening on the GFS and CMC's solution. The models sense the block, but there is no 50/50 Low so instead of dropping the low SE like the Euro, both models cut the upper low off. The Euro I think has the 50/50 low from the 1/11 wave so the low drops more SE due to the blocking and everything is slowed down due to the 50/50 low so the low is able to climb up the coast a bit. A lot of moving parts for sure and it's going to be a headache for a while I'm afraid. I would not put my money on anything yet.

Agree Les that is the case imo concerning the 50/50. The high over southeast Canada is going to be a big player in the outcome. I would like to see it expand further west over southwest Ontario and this way the low will be unable to cut plus if you get a 50/50 low the high pressure may be to far west to push the 50/50 low northeast. Going to watch the NAO as well and its a little to positive at the moment but hopefully it trends towards neutral and this can help slow down the pattern

I don't think (at this time anyway) that the NAO will be a factor. It is positive trending towards neutral as you mentioned, but I don't think it is a player at all. Having the 50/50 low from the early week system is what causes everything to slow down. Even if that block in Eastern Canada were to nose up towards Greenland, that is still not a -NAO. Anyway, I absolutely agree with you in regards to that high. I'd also like to see it a tad further to the SW to force the low more southernly (on the GFS and CMC runs). On the Euro run, we'd of course like to see a bit more phasing so we get that NW Bump in the low track.

[tpweather]

Les my thought on the NAO is if it remains strongly positive like it is currently the 50/50 low will just keep on moving. Need to at least head towards neutral imo to have that 50/50 low stall for a period of time. We are not going to have a negative NAO next week but hopefully a little help in getting that 50/50 low anchroed

[tron777]

Les my thought on the NAO is if it remains strongly positive like it is currently the 50/50 low will just keep on moving. Need to at least head towards neutral imo to have that 50/50 low stall for a period of time. We are not going to have a negative NAO next week but hopefully a little help in getting that 50/50 low anchroed

Understood Tim! When you don't have a -NAO to help you, in this case, we are seeing some sort of blocking over Eastern Canada and Nova Scotia. If you can get the 50/50 to coincide with that, if only for a short time, then you can get what the Euro and EPS are showing towards the end of next week. I'm not really sure I buy what the GFS and CMC are selling with a cut off upper low over us. It's not an impossible solution though, and it is possible if the 50/50 low doesn't happen.

[tron777]

A good write up from the boys with regards to the current upper low and rain / snow shower action for this evening and into tonight:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Cyclonic flow around low pressure in the upper Midwest region
will continue to usher in southwesterly flow into our CWA. It
will be fairly breezy at the surface, with gusts of 20-25 mph.
In this WAA regime, temperatures have surpassed climatological
normals once again.

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows increasing cloud coverage
throughout the fa, with additional low level clouds building in
from the west. Light pcpn just now starting to move into
portions of eastern IN and west-central OH as of 3:00 PM. What
will likely start as rain will eventually transition to a rain-
snow mix as thermal profiles cool. CAMs suggest pcpn will be
greater in coverage from this evening through about midnight.
Some light, scattered precip will continue to linger across our
northern counties through the late night hours. Not overly
convinced from model soundings that a full transition to snow
will occur everywhere, so there could be some sprinkles instead
of flurries for some locations. Luckily, pavement temps are
expected to remain above the freezing mark overnight, so travel
impacts remain low from any frozen pcpn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CAMs continue to hint at some light pcpn lingering through the
day on Friday. Model soundings do show negative omega
overlapping some low-level moisture. There is initially some
saturation closer to -10C, which will allow for some ice
nucleation and thus favor snow flurries earlier in the morning.
As we head more towards the afternoon, this saturation becomes
more shallow, so any light precip that hangs around may be in
the form of sprinkles, with a few flurries mixing in here and
there. While there won`t be much of a diurnal swing in
temperatures tomorrow, above freezing air and surface temps will
limit any impacts from pcpn that lingers throughout the day.

[Bgoney]

Found this global shot of precip from NASA that's pretty cool. Shows a quick 7 day time lapse video that I think will come in handy as far as trying to figure out the MJO position. Let me know if the link works.





https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4285

[tron777]

Found this global shot of precip from NASA that's pretty cool. Shows a quick 7 day time lapse video that I think will come in handy as far as trying to figure out the MJO position. Let me know if the link works.

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4285

Worked perfectly for me.

[tron777]

The tail has moved in but it's virga as the column moistens. It will help to drop temps a bit. Dews are already well below freezing so wet bulbing down shouldn't be an issue. A few rain and snow showers and that'll wrap up the upper low.

[tron777]

18Z GFS is progressive city for later next week! No 50/50 Low. The low cuts over us and we don't even get the upper low to close off either. It just keeps on moving eventually developing a low for the EC then that low tracks N then NW into Upstate NY. Just an odd solution from this model and one that can most likely be tossed out the window.

[Bgoney]

43 and a few raindrops off and on here

[tron777]

Still mainly rain attm but the rain / snow line is getting into SE IN and Western OH now. A break on radar but there is another band of snow over IN which will be all snow and will swing thru later on tonight. With the warm ground, no issues are expected.

[Bgoney]

Not an encouraging overnight model suite. EU says if you want to see snow significantly more than mood flakes in the lower 48 over the next 10 days , you better head for the mountains. Above normal temps to continue but not the record warmth we've seen so far. First 5 days our AVERAGE temp at CVG has been 50 degrees