January 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

0.96" so far here! Been getting hammered and even heard some thunder too.

[Bgoney]

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[tron777]

BG is LIVE right now.

[Bgoney]

Jan 3rd, 61 with a DP of 60

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a nice bit of rain overnight. Les I have not heard thunder but no doubt with this set up you can get some claps of thunder. The fall and winter season has been a wild ride with extremes on both sides of the ledger. 20 years from now you go look up the winter of 22/23 and you may see just a normal winter in terms of temps and precip but how we got to normal is anything but normal. Back with more thoughts but getting my first cup of coffee

[BookNerdCarp]

Big jump in the last 45 minutes - wow!

[tron777]

CVG checking in with 0.95" as of 8am.

[Bgoney]

Oz Ensembles have no real changes into mid month theme talked about for some time. What mjo does in short term and what the PV does in the long term to determine when the Arctic regime can move back in and for how long

[tron777]

A quick look ahead and a flake / rain shower is still possible Thurs into early Fri with the upper low but this is not looking as promising as it once did. The upper low looks to track a little too far to the north so the GFS I believe got that right. (for once lol) Still watching the weekend wave and it still looks mainly like a rain and wintry mix maker for southern areas and a mix / and some snow also possible for I-70 posters.

[tpweather]

A quick look ahead and a flake / rain shower is still possible Thurs into early Fri with the upper low but this is not looking as promising as it once did. The upper low looks to track a little too far to the north so the GFS I believe got that right. (for once lol) Still watching the weekend wave and it still looks mainly like a rain and wintry mix maker for southern areas and a mix / and some snow also possible for I-70 posters.

Good Morning Les and no doubt Thursday was never a big deal and again a quick snow shower is possible but this will be isolated and though it may look nice for a few minutes that is about all we get from this. The weekend system is one we still need to watch. No its not the storm of the century but I believe the energy of this storm may gain some strength and models will pick up on this in the next few days. Will there be enough cold air and do we get an upper system that provides some additional cold. Normally we like to see a nice high pressure coming in from the northern plains and that looks to happen but again the air its tapping in Canada is cold but not polar. Saying that we have another high pressure in eastern Canada and this one is tapping some polar air that is in northeast Canada. How far south and west will this high go. We see these systems quite often in February and one reason is eastern Canada like the east coast of the USA tends to have more cold in late winter than early winter. These highs can be huge in setting up big snow and ice storms over the eastern half of the country. That high is one we really need to watch and do we get a 1035 high which probably is not strong enough to get the colder air in here or do we see something in the 1045 or higher which no doubt helps. Of course when and where this high ends up is one of the keys for this storm. No doubt a nice overrunning event is possible and at this point the further north and east you live the better shot of snow but the exact placement is not set in stone by any means.

[airwolf76]

Yeah not looking like anything exciting till mid month or so. the nice thing is after this week we go back to average temps so I guess that is one positive thing to look forward to anyways .

[tron777]

I agree... I don't see anything that "stands out" to make me jump up and down or anything... But as I've said before, it's not looking like a complete shut out either. We'll just have to wait and see behind this current system how things look by tomorrow and Thurs. We should know a lot more by then with regards to this weekend system.

MJO wise, no updates from the Aussies since 12/30 but I assume it is in Phase 7 right now anyway. Modeling takes it into the COD, does a quick loop then comes back out into Phase 8 as we get towards mid month. If this happens and if it goes thru it's 8-1-2 colder phase tour, late January and into Feb should give the Eastern US a favorable pattern for wintry weather. Of course we continue to see this attempt fail due to the Nina. It's a wait and see game for sure. Current Tellies forecasts have the PNA spiking positive then going back to neutral or even weakly negative. AO stays negative. NAO drops towards neutral but overall stays positive. EPO should turn negative by mid month should all of this pan out correctly. Again, we need patience and a little more waiting unfortunately. Until then, we stay in a seasonal pattern with rain, snow, and mix chances once we get past Wed.

[cloudy72]

Happy New Year to everyone!!! Hope your holiday was a good one! Rainfall of 0.53" here so far and I haven't heard any thunder.

[tron777]

Happy New Year to everyone!!! Hope your holiday was a good one! Rainfall of 0.53" here so far and I haven't heard any thunder.

Welcome to 2023 Mike! Hope this year is starting off much better for you vs how 2022 ended.

[tpweather]

I agree... I don't see anything that "stands out" to make me jump up and down or anything... But as I've said before, it's not looking like a complete shut out either. We'll just have to wait and see behind this current system how things look by tomorrow and Thurs. We should know a lot more by then with regards to this weekend system.

MJO wise, no updates from the Aussies since 12/30 but I assume it is in Phase 7 right now anyway. Modeling takes it into the COD, does a quick loop then comes back out into Phase 8 as we get towards mid month. If this happens and if it goes thru it's 8-1-2 colder phase tour, late January and into Feb should give the Eastern US a favorable pattern for wintry weather. Of course we continue to see this attempt fail due to the Nina. It's a wait and see game for sure. Current Tellies forecasts have the PNA spiking positive then going back to neutral or even weakly negative. AO stays negative. NAO drops towards neutral but overall stays positive. EPO should turn negative by mid month should all of this pan out correctly. Again, we need patience and a little more waiting unfortunately. Until then, we stay in a seasonal pattern with rain, snow, and mix chances once we get past Wed.

Great Post Les and imo this is how we saw it playing out. Timing on storms is something that is hard to predict especially with several pieces of energy around. Again going from above normal temps to below normal in a quick manner is one that can cause the old rubber band effect like we just saw and that is mother nature in a hurry to keep things in check. Will the polar return exactly on the 15th and probably not but what I see with how the weather is looking like around the Northern Hemisphere I see no reason why the cold will not return in mid-month. The MJO will be updated later and we see this every year with the holiday and that will be updated my guess today and I agree it should be in phase 7 and if we just keep it moving I like our thoughts.

[cloudy72]

Welcome to 2023 Mike! Hope this year is starting off much better for you vs how 2022 ended.

So far so good (fingers and toes crossed)

[tron777]

1.2" at CVG from this first round of rain. The break is coming that we've talked about. The front is well off to the West. It's West of ILL and St. Louis so plenty of time to see what happens with this system as the day goes on. Renewed rains and convection probably won't come back until tonight as far as more heavy rainfall is concerned. Wed morning the front pushes thru and we can finally dry out a bit.

[tpweather]

1.2" at CVG from this first round of rain. The break is coming that we've talked about. The front is well off to the West. It's West of ILL and St. Louis so plenty of time to see what happens with this system as the day goes on. Renewed rains and convection probably won't come back until tonight as far as more heavy rainfall is concerned. Wed morning the front pushes thru and we can finally dry out a bit.

Les I just wonder how much rain we receive is up in the air imo. When the atmosphere is worked over like last night and today sometimes it has no time to recover. We will see of course but so many times models will overestimate the next round of rainfall.

[tron777]

1.2" at CVG from this first round of rain. The break is coming that we've talked about. The front is well off to the West. It's West of ILL and St. Louis so plenty of time to see what happens with this system as the day goes on. Renewed rains and convection probably won't come back until tonight as far as more heavy rainfall is concerned. Wed morning the front pushes thru and we can finally dry out a bit.

Les I just wonder how much rain we receive is up in the air imo. When the atmosphere is worked over like last night and today sometimes it has no time to recover. We will see of course but so many times models will overestimate the next round of rainfall.

That could certainly be the case. I don't think we'll see much sun, if any, today so CAPE won't be that much for us. It's a matter of monitoring radar trends to see what pops ahead of the front by later this afternoon. I could see a skinny line developing and it weakens as it moves in here due to our atmosphere getting worked over as you mentioned. A scenario like that is fairly likely.

[dce]

Don't look at the 12z GFS for this weekends system.

[dce]

Crazy. The Canadian is much warmer. All rain.

[tpweather]

Hey Doug and my main concern is the high pressure to the north. I would like to see it stronger which would help drive the colder air further south. I do believe the model is correct with the pattern and I do believe the cold in northeast Canada is important over the next week to 10 days but I just want those highs to develop a little stronger and a little further south. I believe over the next 2 says each run will have a different placement and strength of the high and the low that develops in the central plains. Good to see the system in the time period of Jan7th-10 and my guess more energy next week as well.

What I love on the gfs model and yes I agree with the model which is usually not the case but it starting to see ridging in the west and though not to strong at first and allows pieces of energy to make it eastward but towards later next week that ridge looks to become stronger and this should be one of the items we look at for a change in the pattern

[tron777]

The 12Z CMC is actually further south then its 0Z run. It is picking up on that high over Eastern Canada and New England. I believe the 12Z GFS is doing the same thing. Nice trends so far with the weekend system in my opinion.

[tpweather]

The CMC is milder and the reasoning is it keeps the system stronger compared to the gfs which weakens it crossing the Ohio Valley. Both ideals are possible and just need a few days to watch both the system develop and the high pressure to the north. Later in the period like I mentioned the gfs builds up the ridging with a stronger high over the mountains while the cmc as a much weaker high and less ridging which in turn allows a piece of pacific energy to come eastward. I believe the gfs is closer to reality but again I understand the cmc as well. Once we hit around mid-month how do we get the polar air to return and not always but getting a nice storm to form and usually this means a quick warm up as we need the warmth to get the system stronger and then we see mainly rain to snow on the back end system followed up by a system that can deliver snow here. Does this happen on the 13th,15th,17th or a close by date is just way to early but I can get an ideal of how this may play out

[tron777]

All 12Z GEFS members are now showing something for this weekend. Solutions range from a weak piece of junk to an amp'ed up low cutting thru N IN, and N OH bringing snow to Lower Mich and everything in between. Majority of the members have that low tracking to our West and NW which almost always never equals a good snow. It's usually a mix or rain. Plenty of time of course to watch this system but this maybe our next thread starter potentially here.