January 2023 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

The conditions in the west pac are just to hostile still to expect an 8 Phase with any type of sustained strength and or eastward movement

I agree. The Western Pacific waters are still cold. The Nina is weakening from the East not the other way around so until those SST's warm, I'm afraid you're going to be correct with this thinking. The SOI is still majorly positive and I don't see that changing anytime soon. That does bother me, but at the same time, this Nino-ish sort of pattern that is upcoming to at least turn us back to seasonal cold, it's not the norm either with this La Nina background state. Do you have any thoughts on this? (Tim, you also?)

I want to check on something when I have a minute to respond. In the middle of a process for homemade jelly for my belly.

What kind of jelly? My favorite is strawberry

You know it. Is there any other kind?

100 p/c agree

[Bgoney]

As of 12/29 it's halfway thru Phase 6 per the Aussies so it is no doubt by now closer to getting into Phase 7. Can we finally get to 8 or do we get the usual stalling in 7 or Circle of Death? That may play a role in the mid month and beyond look.

Personally leaning to a slow crawl / stall in seven . How long I can't say. Going by satellite, agree, more of a Phase 6 and edging toward 7

That's been the trend. I've noticed some of the newer guidance has backed off on that Phase 8 look from the other day. Probably explains why the OP models (esp the GFS) are swinging so wildly from run to run trying to figure out what the pattern is ultimately going to do.

The conditions in the west pac are just to hostile still to expect an 8 Phase with any type of sustained strength and or eastward movement

I agree. The Western Pacific waters are still cold. The Nina is weakening from the East not the other way around so until those SST's warm, I'm afraid you're going to be correct with this thinking. The SOI is still majorly positive and I don't see that changing anytime soon. That does bother me, but at the same time, this Nino-ish sort of pattern that is upcoming to at least turn us back to seasonal cold, it's not the norm either with this La Nina background state. Do you have any thoughts on this? (Tim, you also?)

We've had brief episodes of El Nino like conditions in our current 3 winter LaNina period. Late Jan 2021 saw a couple AR events for Cali and the SW and a more rubust period in Dec 2021 which had the MJO in 6/7 for most of DEC. The only other noticeable likeness is a -PNA , and Pos SOI , aslo a semblance of a SE Can ridge. I think this Nino like conditions will wane when the MJO leaves 5,6,7

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[tpweather]

Nice info Bgoney and you can almost take a mix of those 3 and get the current pattern. No doubt we are starting to see differences once we get out pass day 7. Again I am not sure this was on any model runs before but I was trying to see what the stronger high pressures in northeast Canada would do after the early to mid-week storm. The storm looks to be shunned off to the south once it gets closer to the east coast which makes sense. Though we have cold in most of Canada the coldest besides the polar region is now in northeastern Canada. When this happen high pressure builds up and you start seeing some decent highs of 1040 or greater. That does us no good if we are unable to get the cold here but there is a pathway to at least get seasonal cold past the 5th of the month. Ridging is trying to form over Texas and is trying to move further west which then keeps the next pacific system from slamming into the west coast with more mild air. If this happens then that will allow a trough to form somewhere over the eastern half of the country. This in turn would provide the highway to get the cold air in here.

Of course if that ridging in the southwest is weak and unable to help guide the storm away from the coast then my thoughts are wrong. I agree with Bgoney we have had a few episodes of El Nino like conditions during the La Nina but are we getting out of that quickly or is it going to hang around longer and that is where the mjo may play a part.

So getting snow is also what we are looking for and if the trough forms its not a straight north to south trough but builds in from the east and slams up against the mountains and when this happens sometimes you will get low pressures to form. Not sure if that happens this time but I have seen it in the past.

At the end of the day I believe seasonal cold is coming in later next week but where do we go from there to a colder pattern mid-month or does the pacific act like the bully it is and decides to give us more time with systems that contain milder air.

[tpweather]

Just to follow up on the tellies and the AO looks to go negative later next week but nothing like we saw last week. The NAO looks to heading towards neutral instead of the current positive state. The PNA seems to be rather neutral and can we get more of a positive with this late next week. So all in all the 3 main tellies we look at are decent but not great for winter weather. The mjo and Bgoney and Les have been talking about this quite a bit and its moving and will be out of phase 6 in a day or two but once it gets into 7 does it just get held up or head to the circle of death or can we get it to continue into phase 8. There is a lag time usually for this as well but exactly how long the lag is could determine when we switch to another blast of colder air. See once I start posting another thought comes my way and that is the Polar Vortex and it has no doubt decided to stay around the poles but will it get disturbed by a SSW or some other means to get the colder air to move southward.

[tpweather]

The NAM really has this storm moving fast and has it heading into northeast Canada. So my thought of it being directed south would be incorrect. Will this though help unleash some of the cold that will be located in that area. Tons of moving pieces

[dce]

This is phase 7 for January and December for a negative enso according to Les's French website that he posted a link to last year. Phase 7 in January looks pretty good. The question is just how accurate are these maps?

[dce]

Phase 7 is not as kind on the generic December/January/February MJO map from the NWS website.

[tpweather]

Hey Doug and I saw that when Les posted the French output and I really not sure if that does better than some of the ones we follow. Les I know you are having a wonderful time with family but it you get a chance listen to Joe B as he talks about so much that we have written on this forum over the past few weeks. My guess he is peaking at this forum lol. I agreed more than normal though as always I needed to argue about a few things he mentioned. He did explain the mjo so well and what has happened this season and what he expects to happen. Not sure he will be correct but if you look at the mjo over the past few months and it does add up to the weather though again there is the time lapse sometimes but not always. One thing I found very interesting was the storms over Indonesia in the last few days and how this is dead on to phase 6. Okay enough for this post and I know Les is watching the Michigan game.

[Pete1]

Happy New Year AV and to all the wonderful people who make AV a special place. Special thanks to Les, Tim, Trevor, Aaron and Eric !!!!

[MVWxObserver]

Happy New Year AV and to all the wonderful people who make AV a special place. Special thanks to Les, Tim, Trevor, Aaron and Eric !!!!

The same to you Pete and the many others here who make our AV Family so very special, too!!!!

You're quite welcome bro!

Here's to our Bengals as they strive for another Super Bowl!!

[MVWxObserver]

HAVE A BLESSED 2023 EVERYWXONE!!

[Bgoney]

Welcome 2023! HNY! Safe to come out of your bunker now. Sure Can tell the ammo shortage and prices have been alleviated. Midnight was like being on the front lines

[tron777]

Happy New Year's AV! Here's to 2023 and more snow for us! . I'll be home later today and will talk weather and see if the models are kinder to us snow lovers.

[dce]

Happy New Year AV and to all the wonderful people who make AV a special place. Special thanks to Les, Tim, Trevor, Aaron and Eric !!!!

They are the heart of this forum! They do a great job on making this a place for a person to enjoy weather!

[tpweather]

Happy New Year AV and to all the wonderful people who make AV a special place. Special thanks to Les, Tim, Trevor, Aaron and Eric !!!!

They are the heart of this forum! They do a great job on making this a place for a person to enjoy weather!

Happy New Year. Everyone on this forum makes this a special place. I am happy there is a place that I can enjoy a hobby that has been in my life since I was small. Always a passion of mine and was going to be a met but sometimes life gets in the way and you must go a different path. Lucky for me I met my wife because I was unable to attend college. Thanks again for the folks who keep this forum running and I believe the different way folks go about forecasting the weather makes this site unique.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and the afternoon models coming in as I post. What can we tell by the latest round and imo each run the extended gets a little colder as we near that period. We know about the early week system and sure we could see a few flurries Thursday but nothing to worry about though we will be getting back to normal in terms of temps. That I believe is what we see until mid-month and that can be a few days above normal and few below. The models are all over the place with energy and they will go back and forth the next few days trying to figure out if any pieces turns into a possible system that can give us some snow. I believe the period from the 6-15th is a very typical winter forecast for this area with chances of snow and rain and near normal temps. Then do we see a cold outbreak for the second half of the month. Some things are similar to the Dec pattern but not everything we need to figure what may happen to bring the cold this way.

Siberia is getting colder as expected and saw -64 early today and the last cold spell they had I believe hit -78. That is not a problem since its in eastern Siberia and not western Siberia. Canada is still cold but the west and central part of the country is near normal and you have the polar regions cold as well but the eastern third of Canada and especially further north is getting really cold and yes we can get cold from that region but need several items to line up for us. My item that I am really looking at is ridging in the southern plains and can this get stronger and expand further northwest. If this happens and keeps some of pacific systems from hitting the western shoreline or at least keep in from coming inland much then expect downstream troughs in the eastern 1/3 or so of the country.

That is what I see at the moment and besides the early week storm nothing set in stone but tons of energy just waiting for action

[MVWxObserver]

Welcome 2023! HNY! Safe to come out of your bunker now. Sure Can tell the ammo shortage and prices have been alleviated. Midnight was like being on the front lines

My heart and prayers go out to those 3 NYPD officers who were attacked by a machete-wielding thug near Times Square. The suspect is radicalized and the situation is being investigated as an act of terrorism. One of the officers was struck in the head and is in critical condition. Also one of the officers is a rookie. So many corrupt officials in NYC like Eric Adams, Alvin Bragg and Letitia James e.g. who need to be recalled and terminated and NO more catch and then release. Prayers, too, with those officer families.

Anyway back to weather ...currently 50 here in G'ville.

[MVWxObserver]

What a MESS as parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska are under an ICE Storm Warning e.g.!

[tron777]

Good evening all! I still like 1-2" for rain with this next system. I'll talk about the Bengals forecast in that thread here shortly. Look for some thunder and lightning but I don't think we will see severe wx. Could see some gusty winds to 30-40 mph in the stronger storms but the better severe threat looks to be over Western KY and points south from there.

Most models are showing the upper low dropping in for Wed night and Thurs so rain changing to snow showers is possible with this. We may even see some flurries into Friday as well. Not expecting any issues or accumulations right now but I'll be keeping that one eye open look. Then we'll have to wait and see about rain / snow chances for next weekend. Euro / CMC show a system moving thru where the GFS isn't showing much at all.

[tron777]

Thanks guys for your responses to my Nino in a Nina question. You guys have also been discussing something interesting too... the MJO what the phases mean in regards to the ENSO state (the French site) or use the standard CPC phase diagrams. I couldn't tell you which one is more accurate. That is way beyond my knowledge and comprehension. Only comment I can really make is use it as a tool like a computer model, the Teleconnections, etc etc. These are all tools that we use to make forecasts, esp long range ones. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. You have to remember that the weather is just like the chaos theory. It is always changing since our atmosphere is so fluid and complex. So we just use these tools as a guide. The MJO isn't always driving the pattern either. Sometimes it is a Teleconnection. It can be ENSO. It can be a combination of things. This is why weather prediction is so challenging and difficult. But we love it so we give it our best!

[airwolf76]

starting to get the " winter is over bug " here . its been so warm and rainy and foggy the last week. expecting these spring like conditions for the foreseable future.

[tron777]

Good Monday to you all! Last off day for some of us before we all have to get back into the groove tomorrow. I still believe that once we get past this next rain / t-storm maker, we've got a snow shower chance Thurs into Fri as the upper low swings through. Then sometime next weekend (thinking Sunday / Monday 7-8th) some snow is possible mainly north of the River, rain to the south at the current early stages of model guidance with this system. The CMC and Euro have been stronger with this system in trying to phase the jets together. Remember, this is a split jet stream pattern. The GFS never does and keeps the streams separate because it is much more progressive. GEFS /EPS also have this system so for me it is still one to keep an eye on as I've been saying.

Then where do we go from here? I believe that we will probably get one more warm spike as the pattern finally settles in we've been discussing. By mid January, we should get the Aleutian Low, blocking over the top, and an active storm track underneath it over the country. Wildcards are PNA and MJO in my opinion. As of 12/30 it is in 6 getting closer to 7 so by now it should be in 7, given it is 1/2. I don't see any signs yet of the wave dying. Although we know that is a viable outcome due to La Nina conditions persisting and a highly positive SOI. We will wait and see of course. Signs of another PV stretch is there even if we don't get a split. That is what happened back in December. PV became elongated after a few warming attacks. I am still positive here. No winter over bugs for me at all. I think mid January on is going to be good!

[Bgoney]

No disagreement from me Les. The Arctic remains closed for much of lower 48 at least to mid month. Don't mistake that for meaning we won't have sprinklings of wintry type weather until then. We will still see brief seasonal temp days mix with above normal temp days , so, as has been mentioned plenty , small chances of wintry type precip will be had. Not sure how quick we can get back into the Arctic air invasion scheme just yet with all the ?s you mentioned still to be answered.

[tron777]

SPC has the marginal risk for tomorrow getting closer.

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[tron777]

The 12Z GFS continue to be the lone wolf in tracking the Upper Low to our north for Thurs and Fri so very little snow shower activity. Rest of the models so far have kept it over us (further south) to allow for better lift and coverage. Then, for Sunday (this weekend) the model took a step towards the stronger foreign model solutions with a strip of light snow over NKY and the Tri-state. 12Z CMC is much stronger showing snow for the I-70 Crew Sat and Sun with a mix in between and rain for Cincy Proper on south. I want to see a little more data but if it looks this interesting tomorrow, this system could be the next thread starter. It's a southern system which digs (to what degree is in question) to pick up some Gulf moisture while we have some old / stale cold air in place. How much WAA is key to staying all snow so how strong is this low actually going to be? This is the 7-10th threat we have been highlighting for quite sometime on here.

The rest of the CMC run tries to set up something by Day 10 as we approach mid month. That was supposed to be my bigger storm signal to usher in a better wintry pattern from mid month and beyond. These are my current (and always have been) expectations over the last week. The GFS is already lifting the trough out so the return flow from the Gulf means a warm up and rain for us as we approach mid month. OP GFS continues to be progressive and the most progressive model. I truly believe it is showing a bias with that. Not saying the NAO will be negative, it won't be, but I feel more neutral at least and not as positive as it is now.