January 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

12Z GFS for the 7-10 threat looks like the CMC. If we can get better timing of the shortwaves, we can get a more dynamic system to develop. The Gulf should be open too. The set up needs an improved Pacific (and I mean better then the OP 12Z GFS) and better timing of the shortwaves to make it happen for a wintry event. If the phasing is quicker, it cuts. A non system should no phasing occur. Etc etc.

[tpweather]

Great Posts Les and what we are starting to see in the models is after the 4th or 5th stronger high pressures in Canada with some 1040's at least. This makes sense and again even though much of Canada except the northeast and of course north of the poles are getting a milder break but it looks to be short-lived as the coldest air compared to normal in the NH may again end up in Canada which is good news for us.

[tron777]

Great Posts Les and what we are starting to see in the models is after the 4th or 5th stronger high pressures in Canada with some 1040's at least. This makes sense and again even though much of Canada except the northeast and of course north of the poles are getting a milder break but it looks to be short-lived as the coldest air compared to normal in the NH may again end up in Canada which is good news for us.

Thanks Tim! Too add to your wonderful post... since we are not dealing with arctic air, I have a hard time believing a miss to the SE unless we have a weak piece of energy that blows up too late or doesn't blow up at all. In this pattern, I'm honestly more worried about something getting going too soon, as in a Cutter.

[tpweather]

Great Posts Les and what we are starting to see in the models is after the 4th or 5th stronger high pressures in Canada with some 1040's at least. This makes sense and again even though much of Canada except the northeast and of course north of the poles are getting a milder break but it looks to be short-lived as the coldest air compared to normal in the NH may again end up in Canada which is good news for us.

Thanks Tim! Too add to your wonderful post... since we are not dealing with arctic air, I have a hard time believing a miss to the SE unless we have a weak piece of energy that blows up too late or doesn't blow up at all. In this pattern, I'm honestly more worried about something getting going too soon, as in a Cutter.

I agree Les and the NAO is a big piece of the puzzle. Early on the pacific is key like you have talked about but then we need get help from the Atlantic and I believe we will but trying to figure out the timing is key. We are not going from mild to very cold but we should go from mild to seasonal cold at first which is good enough to get us some winter weather. Hopefully this pans out and then we can try and see when a polar air mass can makes its way to the lower 48

[tron777]

Great Posts Les and what we are starting to see in the models is after the 4th or 5th stronger high pressures in Canada with some 1040's at least. This makes sense and again even though much of Canada except the northeast and of course north of the poles are getting a milder break but it looks to be short-lived as the coldest air compared to normal in the NH may again end up in Canada which is good news for us.

Thanks Tim! Too add to your wonderful post... since we are not dealing with arctic air, I have a hard time believing a miss to the SE unless we have a weak piece of energy that blows up too late or doesn't blow up at all. In this pattern, I'm honestly more worried about something getting going too soon, as in a Cutter.

I agree Les and the NAO is a big piece of the puzzle. Early on the pacific is key like you have talked about but then we need get help from the Atlantic and I believe we will but trying to figure out the timing is key. We are not going from mild to very cold but we should go from mild to seasonal cold at first which is good enough to get us some winter weather. Hopefully this pans out and then we can try and see when a polar air mass can makes its way to the lower 48

That is my thought process as well. Seasonal cold with chances January 7-15th. After mid month??? We'll have to wait and see how things look in about 10 days from now to really get a good handle on the second half of the month. I believe it comes, just don't know if it'll be Weeks 3 or 4?

[tpweather]

Yes and seasonal cold in mid-January is highs temps probably in the 36-38 and lows in the 20-23 range is my guess. Give me a couple of light to moderate storm systems in this period and we just need a little luck in getting snow like we usually do in winter

[tron777]

12Z Euro shows over an inch of rain falling from Mon night after midnight thru Tues night around midnight. Dews only get into the L50s vs older runs of mid to U50s. This means more of a heavy rain event and much less in the way of strong to severe storms. That is good news anyway if correct.

Then, the model gets a little more interesting with seasonal cold and rain / snow showers possible Days 8-10. Big blocking high over SE Canada and Hudson's Bay allows for a low over the East Side of the Apps to slow down and more energy to catch up / and drop into the trough to get the unsettled weather with the upper low going for us on the back side.

Once again... the storm signal is there for the 7-10th time period. No idea as to what form it'll take.

[tron777]

12Z EPS is an improved run for Days 10-15. Major ridging in Canada and a big Block in Eastern Canada, Hudson's Bay. This forces the storm track well to the south. How far south is the question as the SE Ridge will want to fight back. It's a stormy pattern with a very active STJ. An El Nino pattern with an Aleutian Low, -EPO -PNA -AO like 09-10 in a La Nina? This ought to get interesting in less then 2 weeks. Not sure if it's snow, ice, rain, or a combo of the three but it isn't going to be boring, I can promise you that. If the positive trends today in guidance continues, it's going to be an exciting January despite all the doom and gloom you're reading on social media. You don't need arctic cold for a winter storm. You need a temp. gradient and a couple of well timed shortwaves. That's all it takes. If the timing is bad we won't score. If it is, we will! The pattern will support decent chances IMHO. As I said earlier, the blinds can be re-opened sooner rather then later.

Homer.gif

[tpweather]

Les I had to laugh about the doom and gloom you talked about on social media. I love folks that are interested in the weather but if they believe the upcoming pattern is doom and gloom then they may want to try another hobby. I not sure what their source is but it makes me laugh. This afternoon it seems models are starting to understand the cold in Canada. This has been so important this season and with the amount of snow on the ground in Canada this season its going to take more than a milder period to melt the snow up there plus we are still seeing plenty of cold in the northern regions. With storm system coming through over the next week sooner or later this builds a trough in the eastern USA imo. How long it takes will is always the hardest part of the forecast but like we have been talking about Les the 7-10th seems the correct time period. Back to a more seasonal brand of cold is fine and hopefully we have a few chances of winter precip. Then we see what the pattern may be showing after mid-month. Weather is fluent and things change in a hurry like going from a blizzard to 60 degrees in late December is not common and one I had no ideal would happen but no doom and gloom here lol.

[winterstormjoe]

Les I had to laugh about the doom and gloom you talked about on social media. I love folks that are interested in the weather but if they believe the upcoming pattern is doom and gloom then they may want to try another hobby. I not sure what their source is but it makes me laugh. This afternoon it seems models are starting to understand the cold in Canada. This has been so important this season and with the amount of snow on the ground in Canada this season its going to take more than a milder period to melt the snow up there plus we are still seeing plenty of cold in the northern regions. With storm system coming through over the next week sooner or later this builds a trough in the eastern USA imo. How long it takes will is always the hardest part of the forecast but like we have been talking about Les the 7-10th seems the correct time period. Back to a more seasonal brand of cold is fine and hopefully we have a few chances of winter precip. Then we see what the pattern may be showing after mid-month. Weather is fluent and things change in a hurry like going from a blizzard to 60 degrees in late December is not common and one I had no ideal would happen but no doom and gloom here lol.

Hey guys, just out of curiosity, what is the gloom and doom talk that is on social media? I need a good laugh!

[tpweather]

I would love to know as well Joe.

[tron777]

Just a lot of negative talk about the upcoming pattern on twitter, other forums, Facebook groups. Some of these folks have seen 5" or less on the season. We are still ahead of the game by 2-3" here. I think we're doing just fine. I am sure many on here feel the same way after what the country has just went thru. Look at Buffalo, still digging out. I think some folks are one minded people who think weather only happens in their own backyards., That isn't true of course. Hey, we all want the biggest snows to fall in our backyards, that is one reason why we are here! But we also share a love of weather even if it isn't in our hoods. Now, the Western US takes a turn for wintry fun and games. For us, and the country, this is a good regroup, recharge and pattern reload period to use your words Tim. The tone on our forum is different. We sing a different tune here. One of positivity and optimism. 18Z OP GFS in fantasy range. Our target period is awfully close on this run! Obviously, we all know this far out, these solutions have low chances of verifying. We saw Apps Runners that gave us 2 feet of snow vanish like Chicago went from feet of snow to 1" in 48 hours! Talk about a snow weenie let down! I-95 snow Weenies on the coast in New England also singing the blues snowfall amounts wise. They had flooding rains and high winds for Christmas. So I guess guys it is all relative as to where you live. And where we all live, things are looking up.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

If the above occurs and blows up into a storm, then the 7th-10th threat is dead. If it does not, it is still an open window. Then I see another big storm signal as we approach mid month. I'm sensing some good vibes going forward here. We need another 5-7 days of positive trends and as our friend Mark would say, The Hounds will start barkin'!

[tpweather]

Good Evening Les and a great post and always nice to see some eye candy. What we do know at the moment is a very wet period through next Wednesday. Tons of moisture from the GOM and this should help supply storms along with the moisture the these pacific systems bring as well. What we are seeing is the cold in western and central Canada is not going anywhere. Sure they get a little boost but overall still nice and cold up there.

[tron777]

Good evening Tim! Let's take a look at why it was eye candy. The below images will take you thru the progression of the Pacific Jet. First one is this afternoon. See that thing roaring!

gfs_uv250_namer_1.png

This one is on 1/3 - Heavy Rain maker time for us - That thing is cranking!

gfs_uv250_namer_20.png

Now it begins to retract the 7-10th threat. 18Z GFS has it a bit earlier on this run but the same window basically. This is a well timed PNA Spike I keep mentioning.

gfs_uv250_namer_31.png

gfs_uv250_namer_65.png

The jet retracts further and eventually a PNA ridge pops at the right time in the right spot for a monster snow storm signal as we approach mid month then getting arctic cold again behind that storm. That is the weenie run part of it. Anyway that Jan 7-10th threat / 6th threat, whatever, I still feel is our first window then we'll see how things look after that. An El Nino pattern in a Nina. If it develops, could really pay off big! The PNA is the unknown. 09-10 is an upcoming analog which had the 18Z GFS fantasy look. Again VERY Low chance, and it is eye candy. But there is no harm in discussing why a model shows what it shows (with an exciting tone in my post ) as long as no one is forecasting it. And obviously nobody is.

EDIT: One last thing, the position of the Aleutian low is the key. WEST or SW of the Island Chain not over it, or in the Gulf of Alaska. Or over Mainland AK. No good. You want to see it where the OP 18Z GFS has it.

gfs_z500a_namer_65.png

[tpweather]

Great maps Les. I wonder if we are starting to see the end of La Nina. I agree this looks more like a El Nino pattern and maybe just gearing us up for next year. I hope to spend more time on Friday as I am doing some yard work down here but mainly just some clean up and the weather looks great on Friday. BTW if that Jan 14th map plans out we are going to have a wonderful January.

[tron777]

Great maps Les. I wonder if we are starting to see the end of La Nina. I agree this looks more like a El Nino pattern and maybe just gearing us up for next year. I hope to spend more time on Friday as I am doing some yard work down here but mainly just some clean up and the weather looks great on Friday. BTW if that Jan 14th map plans out we are going to have a wonderful January.

I got my stuff done today outside and ready for action now! I'll post tomorrow but off to my Bro's on Sat for NYE be back on NYD. Can we start a thread on Monday 1/2 for something in the future? We'll see. You never know. In terms of the demise of La Nina, the positive SOI concerns me. Bgoney and I have brought it up so at least to me, it is a slow demise. IT should have more of an influence. We should expect the PNA to be negative and the above solution to be bogus. The trends the last two days IMO have gotten more positive. Another couple days of this and positive SOI or not, I don't give a damn because something else is driving the bus and it is not ENSO.

An interesting SST config. pattern to me. Warm over cold. Those warm waters near Japan have cooled and the warmer waters are being pushed further East. Shifting Further East, However you want to phrase it. I like seeing that especially if that shift east continues. Could be a nice back half of winter with the Nina collapsing. I see a few warm pockets down there. Look at the above normal waters in the Gulf and Atlantic Wow! The Western Atlantic Ridge / Bermuda High / SE Ridge is alive and well and you can see the reflection of that in the SST's. Same with the warmer waters around Greenland, the reflection of that insane blocking pattern we just had.

ssta.daily.current.png

It is a slow process but it looks to be collapsing from the East. Interesting.

ssta_c.gif

[tpweather]

What a wonderful post Les and one of your best. I will comment more on the above post on Friday. Great work as always Les!!!

[tron777]

Hmmm... also seeing a shift in the MJO modeling which might explain things. More of a shift into 7 and a few models even into 8. That could explain the colder trends and a quicker flip back then expected if this is all not BS.

Go here and check 'em out.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... .shtml#for


As of the 28th it was in 5, getting closer to 6. The MJO kept moving on todays guidance and did not stall in the COD or stall in phase 7 as I mentioned several days ago. We'll keep an eye on it. I don't want to cause any confusion so I am using the Aussie MJO info for tracking where it is at. Anyway, we'll have to give it a few more days to see if this is legit or model noise.

[tron777]

What a wonderful post Les and one of your best. I will comment more on the above post on Friday. Great work as always Les!!!

Thank you Tim! We're just getting warmed up with our analysis! Oh and I want to correct something. The Pacific SST pattern is warm over cold over warm.

[Bgoney]

Dang Les, I would have made some popcorn last night to go along with your posts. Awesome stuff. Who needs arctic air?

[Bgoney]

For Tuesday morning, I'm not ruling out severe wind threat . 850 winds are ripping around 70mph for a time, if the showers role through at the same time could support some high wind gusts. Also have a negative tilt trough to go along with it which adds to volatility. So along with heavy rains , severe threat is non zero

[tron777]

Dang Les, I would have made some popcorn last night to go along with your posts. Awesome stuff. Who needs arctic air?

Thanks Bgoney! Model trends over the next few days are critical to see if these ideas are going to work out or not.

[tron777]

We are definitely in line for heavier rain totals with this early January system vs the New Year's Eve system. 1-2" looks good for the Mon night thru Tues night event. Still seeing some timing differences. GFS says it's over much faster then the Euro with additional waves riding up the front. With a slow moving front and waves continuing to ride up along it, the Euro just makes more sense to me. It's similar to the 12Z run from yesterday as well. Still watching the upper low by Thurs / Fri for some rain / snow showers then the Euro by Days 9-10 has the next system dropping in. Plenty to watch... we just don't yet know which one of these lows will phase into a bigger system. Ensemble Guidance still looks fine to me, just like what I talked about last night.

[tpweather]

Good Morning guys. Of course as we get closer hopefully how the new pattern evolves will show itself more on the models. Bgoney I agree about the strong winds Tuesday morning. Do they make it to the ground is always the tough part of the forecast and no doubt it will be windy with some decent gusts but do we reach severe weather is just a little too early to forecast though heavy rains look likely. Of course before then we have rain later today and Saturday and then a couple of mild days before the next storm system.

Models will dance from run to run in the extended but Les I still believe a system between the 7th and 10th seems likely and this should have enough cold air that we can add winter precip into the forecast. After that there is plenty of energy still available and more than likely we are going to see a couple more systems before the 20th or so. No doubt we should have at least seasonal cold available but are we going to dig out a trough that will bring down some polar air.

Concerning polar air and the pattern itself seems to repeat once again as much Canada is keeping the coldest temps compared to average but I see once again that eastern Siberia may get really cold next week and you start to see temps in the -60 - 70 range once again. Then we just give it a little time and the polar air should head this way. This has been a trend since late September and until I see anything that would change this pattern I am going with this pattern.

[tpweather]

Everyone in the Ohio Valley should get some rainfall as we have 3 waves coming through over the next 36-42 hours. First one is hitting western Indiana. The second will be very late tonight into Saturday during the day and that should target the local area but looks to be out of here before New Years Eve parties and then the third will take aim more for southeast Ohio and eastern Kentucky. Most folks should get .5- 1.5 and I did mention that some area of the Ohio Valley may get less and at this point models tend to show that in eastern Kentucky and southeast Ohio with the third wave. Then we have those two mild days and Monday and I guess the story we have on Monday is how warm do we get and does the rain arrive before,during or after the Bengals game.