White Christmas Blizzard 2022

[Wxulikeitornot]

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[Trevor]

12Z HRRR Kuchera.


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Good Morning Les and should be an exciting day and already went to 2 Kroger's and both have very few eggs left and my guess is folks went grocery shopping earlier than normal for eggs,milk. Concerning the Kuchera method and I look at it but never use it for forecasting snow. I see where folks in Indy have lowered totals and sped up the arrival of the front.

Kroger's was tough here yesterday. Better then waiting until today.

My shift yesterday was an absolute nightmare. About to head in now. Uncle!!

[Trevor]

12Z HRRR Kuchera.


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Good Morning Les and should be an exciting day and already went to 2 Kroger's and both have very few eggs left and my guess is folks went grocery shopping earlier than normal for eggs,milk. Concerning the Kuchera method and I look at it but never use it for forecasting snow. I see where folks in Indy have lowered totals and sped up the arrival of the front.

I went shopping for a few things last night at the Springdale Rd Krogers, there were almost no eggs, bread aisle was decimated, there were entire cases/bins in the produce section that were completely empty including potatoes. I don't remember ever seeing it like that, but then, I generally don't shop when it's supposed to snow.

Not to be cliche, but it’s a perfect storm of sorts for grocery stores with the upcoming holiday and a major winter storm. Trust me, it has not been fun.

[tron777]

12Z NAM is back in line after that silly overnight run. Here's another short term model, the 12Z RAP.

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[mainevilleweather]

12Z NAM is back in line after that silly overnight run. Here's another short term model, the 12Z RAP.


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It's clear the NWS is using the NAM numbers.

[fyrfyter]

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Everyone’s Up!

[Trevor]

I'll stay slightly on the lower side with 2-3" and iso 4". There only so much moisture post fropa and winds are my reasons. I will defer official snow amounts to cvg, Dayton, cbus noaa offices

Good call on official obs sites. Backyard snow measurements will be highly inaccurate with this due to wind.

Trev, can you get some info from your friend at ILN on what qpf they're expecting in snow. We can then figure out how much effects they are thinking the winds will have on ratios. This is basically the difference in forecasters thinking of snowfall amounts here , TV forecasts and Noaa offices. Kuchera is useless in this situation .

He says somewhere between 0.15-0.25 for now but tough to say.

[Bgoney]

12Z NAM is back in line after that silly overnight run. Here's another short term model, the 12Z RAP.


12ZRap.png

It's clear the NWS is using the NAM numbers.

I think its a combo of models they're using . A consistent theme in many models in previous runs has been .15" to .30" with a best case scenario .35" qpf snow potential.
I think its just how they are thinking the ratios are going to go

[Bgoney]

I'll stay slightly on the lower side with 2-3" and iso 4". There only so much moisture post fropa and winds are my reasons. I will defer official snow amounts to cvg, Dayton, cbus noaa offices

Good call on official obs sites. Backyard snow measurements will be highly inaccurate with this due to wind.

Trev, can you get some info from your friend at ILN on what qpf they're expecting in snow. We can then figure out how much effects they are thinking the winds will have on ratios. This is basically the difference in forecasters thinking of snowfall amounts here , TV forecasts and Noaa offices. Kuchera is useless in this situation .

He says somewhere between 0.15-0.25 for now but tough to say.

Thanks Trev , that's about what I figured

[MJSun]

Hi all! I tried to look through posts but can someone share when the big drop/flash freeze is going to hit? It sounds like later tonight (7ish? Later?).

Also, Les, your high and low temperatures on the widget in your sig is nuts: 44/-5.

[tron777]

12Z RGEM thru Christmas Eve at 7am:

For CVG 4" or so falls thru Fri morning at 7am, then periods of snow showers tack on another inch or inch and a half.

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[Browneyedgirl]

What are the chances of having a blizzard warning issued? I know the definition. Wind gusts vs sustained winds are a factor?

[tron777]

Hi all! I tried to look through posts but can someone share when the big drop/flash freeze is going to hit? It sounds like later tonight (7ish? Later?).

Also, Les, your high and low temperatures on the widget in your sig is nuts: 44/-5.

Hey MJ! I would be where you want to be by 7pm for sure. It won't be terribly long after that is when things go downhill quickly! The temp drop is no joke either! I agree with what the widget is showing to be honest.

[tpweather]

We are seeing these intense snow sqaull warnings pop up and the latest one is in southeast Kansas. This is something that we need to watch over the next 24 hours as these are hard to predict but with a very very strong jet with tons of energy. They can have true blizzard conditions except they don't meet the time period of 3 hours but just getting one to last an hour can cause all kinds of problems. Going to watch this today and see if we get a consistent flow to the east and see if these snow squalls continues

[tron777]

We are seeing these intense snow sqaull warnings pop up and the latest one is in southeast Kansas. This is something that we need to watch over the next 24 hours as these are hard to predict but with a very very strong jet with tons of energy. They can have true blizzard conditions except they don't meet the time period of 3 hours but just getting one to last an hour can cause all kinds of problems. Going to watch this today and see if we get a consistent flow to the east and see if these snow squalls continues

I'm not sure what the end result will be for us, we'll know soon enough... but as I said last night, I still think models are underdone on this system and they can't handle such an extreme set up. I still feel that way today. Whether this thing blows up a little West or East of us or right on top of us, remains to be seen. I really hope we can get some added moisture injected into this thing as it wraps up from that east coast system. May as well swing for the fences, right?

[tron777]

Front just passed STL. Down to 32 already and continuing to fall...

[tron777]

Our first Blizzard MD now issued for Eastern MT and the Dakotas:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2060.html

[tron777]

Radar loop... see all that moisture East of the Apps? That's what I am watching for tonight / tomorrow. Can we get any of it thrown back our way? You get a strong enough storm, it can happen. I won't forecast it obviously but I am watching it and will discuss the possibility on here.

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[airwolf76]

Im in the batch east of the Apps that lester just mentioned. its more sleet and frz rain then snow . it started right about 930 am

[mainevilleweather]

GFS still continues to hammer us!

[Bgoney]

A 10 to 15 feet difference in water level expected from the west end to east end of Erie, Anyone have a sail boat?

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[Bgoney]

Yesterday in Cheyenne WY

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[mainevilleweather]

NAM showing 86 inches somewhere near Buffalo whoa.

[rhodesman88]

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Perfect!

[airwolf76]

its so nice to see everyone gather here and bring so much excitement for the first major storm. the wind and the cold is really gonna be something. also remember you dont need a ton of snow on the ground. your gonna see some serious drifting even with a 3-5" snowfall