White Christmas Blizzard 2022

[tron777]

So the question of the night is why is this not going to be considered a Blizzard. The definition is winds over 35 mph ,snowing of course and visibility less that a 1/4 mile for at least 3 hours. We get close during this time period but will probably come up short in one area or so.

Didn't the old criteria involve temperature also? Either a certain temperature had to be obtained or a certain temperature drop had to occur? This could even meet the old criteria considering the temperature and temperature drop we are going to see.

Just found out I have to go to the in-laws in Peru Indiana tomorrow for Christmas weekend. I wasn't expecting to have to make this trip. Family health issues have made this a necessity, so I can report ground observations from Peru as this thing unfolds in northern Indiana.

Wow! Please be careful, Doug! So sorry that this happened Bro. Safe travels my friend. Here is the official NWS definition:

Blizzard
(abbrev. BLZD)- A blizzard means that the following conditions are expected to prevail for a period of 3 hours or longer:
Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater; and
Considerable falling and/or blowing snow (i.e., reducing visibility frequently to less than ¼ mile)

https://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=blizzard

Thank you! We will leave pretty early as to arrive ahead of the storm.

Not sure why NWS offices aren't pulling the trigger on blizzard warnings especially in the northern half of Indiana and northwest Ohio. Winds gusts are going to be 50-60 mph for a good length of time. I'm thinking just before or as the event is unfolding blizzard warnings will show up.

Absolutely agree.... same goes with Southern Lower Mich even away from Lake Michigan.

[snowbo]

Bernie Rayno says that there should be blizzard warnings along all of I-70 in Indiana and Ohio. Just reporting what he's saying.

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1rmGPkEvEjdKN

[tron777]

Major shift south... Recall the NAM has been one of the more northern and western solutions. It's caving in... 18Z run valid for Thurs evening at 7pm had a 1001 MB low over N Lake Michigan. 0Z run valid for the same time period has the low at 1000 MB near Ft. Wayne, IN.

[tron777]

Bernie Rayno says that there should be blizzard warnings along all of I-70 in Indiana and Ohio. Just reporting what he's saying.

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1rmGPkEvEjdKN

No doubt Bo! Totally agree!

[tron777]

Low is strengthening and moving more East then North which is good. Now it's crawling thru SE Michigan. Oh man, I really like what we're seeing here! Tremendous lift from a powerful jet streak rounding the base of the trough and roaring thru SKY. A perfect spot for heavy snow in the entire AV area... The upper low dives in from MN and tracks across ILL and tighting up and closing off more as it does so. Wow!

[tpweather]

Major shift south... Recall the NAM has been one of the more northern and western solutions. It's caving in... 18Z run valid for Thurs evening at 7pm had a 1001 MB low over N Lake Michigan. 0Z run valid for the same time period has the low at 1000 MB near Ft. Wayne, IN.

Here is another item and I may have mentioned sometime over the past few days but when you see a storm getting stronger we see the low usually move more towards the north and west. This will not be case because the front is so powerful that you will see a low pressure go straight north or even northeast. The models are still having some problems in the placement of the low and I understand as during the day on Thursday tons of energy that will be working with different aspects and timing.

[tron777]

0.30"+ for CVG from the NAM in my est. It's the most backside QPF I've seen yet from this model.

[tpweather]

Low is strengthening and moving more East then North which is good. Now it's crawling thru SE Michigan. Oh man, I really like what we're seeing here! Tremendous lift from a powerful jet streak rounding the base of the trough and roaring thru SKY. A perfect spot for heavy snow in the entire AV area... The upper low dives in from MN and tracks across ILL and tighting up and closing off more as it does so. Wow!

Les 24 hours ago that jet was coming right on top of us so we are talking about 120-150 shift southward which is great news

[mainevilleweather]

Low is strengthening and moving more East then North which is good. Now it's crawling thru SE Michigan. Oh man, I really like what we're seeing here! Tremendous lift from a powerful jet streak rounding the base of the trough and roaring thru SKY. A perfect spot for heavy snow in the entire AV area... The upper low dives in from MN and tracks across ILL and tighting up and closing off more as it does so. Wow!

Looks like the snow totals are the same on this run compared to the 18z no?

[tron777]

NAM at 500 MB.gif

[tron777]

Low is strengthening and moving more East then North which is good. Now it's crawling thru SE Michigan. Oh man, I really like what we're seeing here! Tremendous lift from a powerful jet streak rounding the base of the trough and roaring thru SKY. A perfect spot for heavy snow in the entire AV area... The upper low dives in from MN and tracks across ILL and tighting up and closing off more as it does so. Wow!

Les 24 hours ago that jet was coming right on top of us so we are talking about 120-150 shift southward which is great news

Absolutely!

[tron777]

Low is strengthening and moving more East then North which is good. Now it's crawling thru SE Michigan. Oh man, I really like what we're seeing here! Tremendous lift from a powerful jet streak rounding the base of the trough and roaring thru SKY. A perfect spot for heavy snow in the entire AV area... The upper low dives in from MN and tracks across ILL and tighting up and closing off more as it does so. Wow!

Looks like the snow totals are the same on this run compared to the 18z no?

No. There are more higher amounts over us. 18Z had the same general placement of the heavier stuff, but it was more in pockets, or isolated in nature.

[mainevilleweather]

Low is strengthening and moving more East then North which is good. Now it's crawling thru SE Michigan. Oh man, I really like what we're seeing here! Tremendous lift from a powerful jet streak rounding the base of the trough and roaring thru SKY. A perfect spot for heavy snow in the entire AV area... The upper low dives in from MN and tracks across ILL and tighting up and closing off more as it does so. Wow!

Looks like the snow totals are the same on this run compared to the 18z no?

No. There are more higher amounts over us. 18Z had the same general placement of the heavier stuff, but it was more in pockets, or isolated in nature.

Well thats positive. Can't wait to see what the GFS and Euro do tonight. How accurate are these models this close to the event?

[tron777]

Wow! The 3KM NAM has a couple of 6" lollipops for our Dayton posters!

[tpweather]

NAM at 500 MB.gif

That jet over southern should have extra lift as well. Not sure I see a low pressure forming but if that happened over southern Kentucky then we are in for over 6 inches. Still staying with my 2-5 inches and still the only other business I need to take care of is where a heavier band may form. Yesterday I thought closer to Indy but again I am not sure and hopefully this becomes clearer in the morning. Btw I expect the NWS to expand the winter storm watches through much of Kentucky and matter of fact time we wake up most should have been upgraded to a winter storm warning.

[tron777]

Low is strengthening and moving more East then North which is good. Now it's crawling thru SE Michigan. Oh man, I really like what we're seeing here! Tremendous lift from a powerful jet streak rounding the base of the trough and roaring thru SKY. A perfect spot for heavy snow in the entire AV area... The upper low dives in from MN and tracks across ILL and tighting up and closing off more as it does so. Wow!

Looks like the snow totals are the same on this run compared to the 18z no?

No. There are more higher amounts over us. 18Z had the same general placement of the heavier stuff, but it was more in pockets, or isolated in nature.

Well thats positive. Can't wait to see what the GFS and Euro do tonight. How accurate are these models this close to the event?

As we get closer like this, you want to see the short range models like the NAM, RGEM, HRRR, RAP, etc etc do what the GFS and Euro were doing to gain confidence in going with the higher amounts.

[tron777]

NAM at 500 MB.gif

That jet over southern should have extra lift as well. Not sure I see a low pressure forming but if that happened over southern Kentucky then we are in for over 6 inches. Still staying with my 2-5 inches and still the only other business I need to take care of is where a heavier band may form. Yesterday I thought closer to Indy but again I am not sure and hopefully this becomes clearer in the morning. Btw I expect the NWS to expand the winter storm watches through much of Kentucky and matter of fact time we wake up most should have been upgraded to a winter storm warning.

BG's map is going to verify somewhere with a 4-6" or a 6"+ band somewhere in the OV. Whether it is over IN or us, remains to be seen.

[young pup]

Okie dokie then. This is going to be hard to get an accurate measurement that is for sure.

[tron777]

It's time! Not because of the amounts, but because of the impacts we have already discussed. Holiday travel time... we're almost to Christmas, etc etc.

Hammer Time.JPG

[mainevilleweather]

Oh damn I was using PIvitol Weather trying to read the amounts but just looked at NAM on Nexlab and has 7.8 for my hood!

[Browneyedgirl]

My friend in CO reports a 35 degree drop in 30 minutes.

[tron777]

My friend in CO reports a 35 degree drop in 30 minutes.

Love it!

[mainevilleweather]

Would suck to live in that donut hole if that verified....

[tpweather]

It's time! Not because of the amounts, but because of the impacts we have already discussed. Holiday travel time... we're almost to Christmas, etc etc.



Hammer Time.JPG

Love it Les. I went back to make sure I had the correct snow total for the 78 blizzard and at CVG it was only 6.9 inches. This really shows other factors can take a decent snowfall and turn it into a rather epic storm. Just imagine the amount of cars that will have a hard time starting over the next 4 days.

[dce]

It's time! Not because of the amounts, but because of the impacts we have already discussed. Holiday travel time... we're almost to Christmas, etc etc.



Hammer Time.JPG

Love it Les. I went back to make sure I had the correct snow total for the 78 blizzard and at CVG it was only 6.9 inches. This really shows other factors can take a decent snowfall and turn it into a rather epic storm. Just imagine the amount of cars that will have a hard time starting over the next 4 days.

Thing about that storm was the fact that there was already an appreciable amount of snow on the ground before the blizzard hit. Dayton received 12.9 from the blizzard with a foot of snow already on the ground before the storm hit.