White Christmas Blizzard 2022

[Bgoney]

Latest from WPC showing the chance for 4" in that arc from SE indiana coutnties to Dayton

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[tpweather]

We talk a lot about the 78 blizzard and sure there are some things similar but the amount of moisture was much greater with the 78 storm and the pieces of energy from both directions back then were very strong before they joined forces. Yes we have the sudden drop in temps and of course the winds but what peak my interest was how strong the jet stream is getting during the storm, This one is similar to the 78 storm and that tells me we have tons of energy and we can already see that out west.

[tron777]

18Z GFS should be similar to 12Z as in a nice run! It is hammer time later Thurs evening thru the mid night hours, etc.

EDIT: I love how that jet streak and upper low just dives right into the region! Really nice looking upstairs! Look at 500 MB vorticity at 30-36 hours and you'll see what I mean.

[mainevilleweather]

18z gfs never disappoints!

[tron777]

The upper low deepens and closes off over Ohio and rotates thru SE Ohio and into PA. Not too shabby! That keeps the snow going for CVG until around 7am Friday morning for the heaviest stuff. Probably until late morning to midday for I-70 Corridor.

[tron777]

I shouldn't even post this but DAMN!

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[cincy bud]

Another thing to think about tomorrow is store anything that will blow around and/or get damaged ie. Inflatable decorations, chairs, trash cans.

FYI Rumpke just texted us to expect regular service on Friday.

[mikeyp]

Man, that would be glorious if that happened! Usually the Nam does that to us hahaha

[tron777]

Per the NWS Cheyenne, WY Twitter page... they dropped 40 degrees in 30 mins! Holy Cow!

[tpweather]

I will be back on later this evening and my guess not to much new info will have happened by then. Les I just saw that map and again we are going to see busts on forecasts but in both directions. Some way to high and some way to low. Where do these busts happen is not known because it would not be bust if we knew. We are leaving for SC next Tuesday and decided just to take the outdoor stuff down since it was coming down next Monday anyway.

[Bgoney]

18z HRRR still coming in with .20-30" qpf of snow in about a 4 hour period, so factor in all the variables we have going on at that time and what do yyou come up with?

Bgoney and we talked about that earlier and what are the snow ratios going to be at any given time and how do you really come up with a correct ratio. Many times with systems cold air comes in slowly and you start at 30 degrees and maybe 8 hours later you are at 22 so the ratio went form 8-1 to maybe 12-1 over that period. This is shorter duration and we may go from 45 to 15 in two hours time. So do you go 8-1 for 30 minutes and then 12-1 for next 30 minutes and continue to go higher over the next 3 hours. I love numbers but this one is a moving target.

Yea , I know , that might be imp0ssible to calculate , having said that , i just dont see accumulations going over 3 or 4 in the AV triangle. Unless theres even a more SE shift in the low. I doubt if those higher numbers Kuchera is spitting out calculates the 35-50 mph winds into it .

[tron777]

I will be back on later this evening and my guess not to much new info will have happened by then. Les I just saw that map and again we are going to see busts on forecasts but in both directions. Some way to high and some way to low. Where do these busts happen is not known because it would not be bust if we knew. We are leaving for SC next Tuesday and decided just to take the outdoor stuff down since it was coming down next Monday anyway.

Good idea Tim and I could not agree more with you. This is going to be so exciting to track no matter what happens.

[tron777]

18z HRRR still coming in with .20-30" qpf of snow in about a 4 hour period, so factor in all the variables we have going on at that time and what do yyou come up with?

Bgoney and we talked about that earlier and what are the snow ratios going to be at any given time and how do you really come up with a correct ratio. Many times with systems cold air comes in slowly and you start at 30 degrees and maybe 8 hours later you are at 22 so the ratio went form 8-1 to maybe 12-1 over that period. This is shorter duration and we may go from 45 to 15 in two hours time. So do you go 8-1 for 30 minutes and then 12-1 for next 30 minutes and continue to go higher over the next 3 hours. I love numbers but this one is a moving target.

Yea , I know , that might be imp0ssible to calculate , having said that , i just dont see accumulations going over 3 or 4 in the AV triangle. Unless theres even a more SE shift in the low. I doubt if those higher numbers Kuchera is spitting out calculates the 35-50 mph winds into it .

Totally agree with this too!

[tron777]

Going to est that the 18Z GFS gives CVG 0.35" of QPF for the backside snows. I chopped a bit off due to rain at the beginning and calculating a bit of wasted QPF as the front passes and temps begin to drop.

[BookNerdCarp]

I have to be honest - I am really concerned about Global Warming

[mainevilleweather]

I have to be honest - I am really concerned about Global Warming

Me and my F250 gasser agrees.

[cincy bud]

[young pup]

Per the NWS Cheyenne, WY Twitter page... they dropped 40 degrees in 30 mins! Holy Cow!

Stealing this and putting on fb. I think it means business

[cloudy72]

I’m trying not to buy into these higher totals on the global models - but it’s hard to ignore.

[tron777]

Folks... going to grab some food and I'll be back shortly for more coverage!

[winterstormjoe]

I will be back on later this evening and my guess not to much new info will have happened by then. Les I just saw that map and again we are going to see busts on forecasts but in both directions. Some way to high and some way to low. Where do these busts happen is not known because it would not be bust if we knew. We are leaving for SC next Tuesday and decided just to take the outdoor stuff down since it was coming down next Monday anyway.

Good idea Tim and I could not agree more with you. This is going to be so exciting to track no matter what happens.

After seeing the day models and reading some of the post here I've come to the conclusion that from Indy and to the NW may not see as much as a few days ago and further east may see more, so that may be the bust that may happen. One bust I would not mind seeing is having less winds for our area, I'm kind of freaked out a little on losing power.

[tpweather]

I will be back on later this evening and my guess not to much new info will have happened by then. Les I just saw that map and again we are going to see busts on forecasts but in both directions. Some way to high and some way to low. Where do these busts happen is not known because it would not be bust if we knew. We are leaving for SC next Tuesday and decided just to take the outdoor stuff down since it was coming down next Monday anyway.

Good idea Tim and I could not agree more with you. This is going to be so exciting to track no matter what happens.

After seeing the day models and reading some of the post here I've come to the conclusion that from Indy and to the NW may not see as much as a few days ago and further east may see more, so that may be the bust that may happen. One bust I would not mind seeing is having less winds for our area, I'm kind of freaked out a little on losing power.

Hey Joe and I agree about losing power. My neighbor got his generator out today so if things go south I will knock on his door.

[tron777]

I'm prepared as much as I can be too. Got plenty of food and drink. I can drag the grill / smoker out and build a fire to cook with. (Just have to dress like the Michelin Man to do it! LOL) Plenty of fuel, kerosene heater, blankets, etc. Oh and one final tip, IMO anyway is to check your furnace filter and make sure it is in good working order. You don't want a furnace issue if you can help it (power outage not withstanding).

[tron777]

18Z GEFS Mean this evening at a 10:1 Ratio has about 6" at IND, 3-4" for the Metro and 2-3" SE Crew.

[tpweather]

Starting to look at pressure falls and we know in the northern plains with that piece of energy moving east that the pressures are falling but also notice the fall in western Texas. Will the pressure fall in Texas become a area of low pressure that could ride up the front and I don't know the answer.