White Christmas Blizzard 2022

[fyrfyter]

We can talk about this in the December thread, or make a new thread later whatever... but I am watching a possible consolation prize clipper perhaps, just after Christmas. A signal for something dropping down in NW flow is there, but what it not clear is what happens to it? Does it phase with anything down by the Gulf in the STJ? Does it harmlessly move thru as the typical 1-3" clipper? Or does it shear out and fall apart into nothing? No idea right now here and the models don't have a clue either. Nothing will come into focus down the road until this big ole blizzard gets out of the way. We will see blizzard watches and eventually warnings issued with this system on its Western and NW side. My guess right now for that is a St Louis to Chicago to Upper Michigan Line and some parts of Wisc as well. Probably winter storm watches to warnings and advisories all other areas. Just kind of a rough outline of how a weather map over the Lower 48 might look for this one. Probably some wind chill advisories and warnings going up later also. I could see us getting into the wind chill game. Not sure how ILN would go with winter storm headlines though. The wind wants you to issue the B word but the amounts of snow aren't really winter storm warning criteria either at this time. Tough call for the NWS without a doubt.

It tracks South Dakota, to MN/IA line, then SW of Chicago and then due East. It doesn’t make a lot of sense at this point. Need a few more frames and then I can check accumulation.

Edit- we get a dusting from it. Non-event based on current track.

[tpweather]

Any chance that low hangs up in Michigan for a while and spins? Isn't that what happened in 78'?

That track was way more East then this one will be. It bombed out over CLE and Upstate PA / NY. Cincy got like 8". This one bombs out in IN or Michigan thus much lower amounts like an inch or two. It all matters how fast this thing wraps up to figure out where it's going to go.

Also to add we had a ton more moisture available with the 78 blizzard plus the trough dug much deeper and a low near New Orleans met up with northern energy that came out of Northern Canada and boom it was my favorite winter storm. The northern energy looks strong oh this as well but we just have a few other items that will make it hard to top that storm.

[tron777]

I should say that the trend has been NE instead of due East on some guidance here. Sorry if I misspoke earlier. Like the GEFS for example, the 6Z had the low located S of Chicago. 12Z now has it NE of there over SW Lower Michigan. So we might be seeing a trend here where the storm is a bit weaker overall, and it takes a longer time to ramp up. So it will be more East as a result if this is correct. SE if better for us, and the correction might be to the NE in the guidance today. Again, sorry for the misinterpretation. I wanted to clarify that.

Hey Les and I don't believe its the wrong interpretation. Models will have a hard time figuring out where a low pressure will end up. This is not your normal Canadian cold air mass and if this one bombs out you may not noticed a northwest shift with the low because the front is so powerful and quick moving that everything including the low is moving. I will say one thing about the Euro and is had very little movement in the last several days. The CMC which led the way into this pattern has been back and forth but still not horrible but the gfs is like me throwing darts and I can tell you I am not very good at throwing darts. I hope to have my forecast sometime Tuesday afternoon and was hoping around 2pm but I have a meeting at 1pm and may not be until 3 or 4pm. Concerning flash freeze and if we don't get that I will be surprised and again when we have the occlusion is key and with a really wrapped up storm that just got underway I believe this process takes longer. Going from say 45 to 15 in 2-3 hours and you will have a flash freeze and hopefully a decent period of snow on top of the ice for traction. Again not like 1978 when you had heavy rain and a brief but heavy bout with sleet and a quick 8 inches of snow and then everything just froze over.Btw the way the winds will be wild and the Bengals play New England on Saturday and winds at times could gust over 70mph and I say hello run game

Thank you Tim! Yeah, a temp drop as you have described would be flash freeze city! It's still going to be an interesting storm for us to observe from our hoods here and maybe we'll see more snow then what I am thinking. These big storms can surprise, but in this case, the surprise could be more even west.

[tron777]

We can talk about this in the December thread, or make a new thread later whatever... but I am watching a possible consolation prize clipper perhaps, just after Christmas. A signal for something dropping down in NW flow is there, but what it not clear is what happens to it? Does it phase with anything down by the Gulf in the STJ? Does it harmlessly move thru as the typical 1-3" clipper? Or does it shear out and fall apart into nothing? No idea right now here and the models don't have a clue either. Nothing will come into focus down the road until this big ole blizzard gets out of the way. We will see blizzard watches and eventually warnings issued with this system on its Western and NW side. My guess right now for that is a St Louis to Chicago to Upper Michigan Line and some parts of Wisc as well. Probably winter storm watches to warnings and advisories all other areas. Just kind of a rough outline of how a weather map over the Lower 48 might look for this one. Probably some wind chill advisories and warnings going up later also. I could see us getting into the wind chill game. Not sure how ILN would go with winter storm headlines though. The wind wants you to issue the B word but the amounts of snow aren't really winter storm warning criteria either at this time. Tough call for the NWS without a doubt.

It tracks South Dakota, to MN/IA line, then SW of Chicago and then due East. It doesn’t make a lot of sense at this point. Need a few more frames and then I can check accumulation.

Edit- we get a dusting from it. Non-event based on current track.

I don't have any thoughts yet on the after Christmas clipper other then to keep an eye on it. Too many headaches with this current incoming system. which is fine. Maybe it'll kind of "sneak up on us".

[tron777]

Any chance that low hangs up in Michigan for a while and spins? Isn't that what happened in 78'?

That track was way more East then this one will be. It bombed out over CLE and Upstate PA / NY. Cincy got like 8". This one bombs out in IN or Michigan thus much lower amounts like an inch or two. It all matters how fast this thing wraps up to figure out where it's going to go.

Also to add we had a ton more moisture available with the 78 blizzard plus the trough dug much deeper and a low near New Orleans met up with northern energy that came out of Northern Canada and boom it was my favorite winter storm. The northern energy looks strong oh this as well but we just have a few other items that will make it hard to top that storm.

Exactly. PNA ridge was along the West Coast too, not off of the Coast so the trough can dig more to the SE to form the surface low near New Orléans which is usually a classic spot for us. This is going to be a classic blizzard, centered just a bit too west for us (if you're comparing to 1978).

[tron777]

Ongoing SnowTalk!

[Ddmeyer004]

One thing going for the Flash Freeze idea is the rate at which the temp drops. We will have a better idea on that once this gets a little more into the short term / mesoscale model range. With the globals we get 3 to 6 hour increments. Hourly increments will be more useful in another day or two to calculate how fast the temp actually drops. I saw a model that has it dropping 50 degrees in like 6 hours! I think it was the UKMET. That would do it dry slot or no dry slot. I mean if we're talking a 20 degree drop in 30 mins we are in trouble with things icing up. A strong wind can dry things fast but if the temp drop is faster then the wind can dry, then there you go. So that is something we need to calculate to really start honking about it.

The wind is worth honking about and the risk of power outages due to down trees / limbs. Leaves are basically off now minus a few oaks so that helps, but any old or weak trees will be problematic in some areas. Then with the cold air rushing in your home will cool off quickly. Have a generator, a kerosene heater, etc. some way of getting alternative heat. There is also a fire risk here so def use common sense and make sure it's well ventilated. Don't set it on carpet or anything that can catch fire. Make sure it isn't too close to a wall, etc etc. Common sense stuff.

Now thru Wednesday is the time to prepare and have a game plan. Get food, alcoholic beverages medicines, cash, charge those cell phones on Thursday... make sure your car is filled up, that never hurts. Etc. Etc. That is my message for today. These are the highest impacts in my opinion based on the data I have seen. Snow, low visibilities are secondary impacts.

Couldn’t agree more to get prepared. Today or Tuesday will be your best chances before the crazies raid the stores. Was out at Kroger, Walmart, and Lowes this morning in Mason and people are already out preparing. This isn’t going to be a joke of a storm so heed Les advise….go now and get your preps

[Trevor]

Big snow amounts have been off the table here in our region for 36-48 hours now. So that’s not surprising. Les, remember I told you on Sat that this thing was going west. But in the end, all that really changes are snow totals. We will def get some snow, and I’m pretty confident with a brief thump of heavy snow with big flakes as the front blows through. Then temps crash and winds increase. Impacts are going to be high regardless of getting 1-3” or a lot more. Friday is going to be a brutal day. This heat miser is not happy

[tron777]

Big snow amounts have been off the table here in our region for 36-48 hours now. So that’s not surprising. Les, remember I told you on Sat that this thing was going west. But in the end, all that really changes are snow totals. We will def get some snow, and I’m pretty confident with a brief thump of heavy snow with big flakes as the front blows through. Then temps crash and winds increase. Impacts are going to be high regardless of getting 1-3” or a lot more. Friday is going to be a brutal day. This heat miser is not happy

The Jack Frost part is 100% real.

[Trevor]

One thing going for the Flash Freeze idea is the rate at which the temp drops. We will have a better idea on that once this gets a little more into the short term / mesoscale model range. With the globals we get 3 to 6 hour increments. Hourly increments will be more useful in another day or two to calculate how fast the temp actually drops. I saw a model that has it dropping 50 degrees in like 6 hours! I think it was the UKMET. That would do it dry slot or no dry slot. I mean if we're talking a 20 degree drop in 30 mins we are in trouble with things icing up. A strong wind can dry things fast but if the temp drop is faster then the wind can dry, then there you go. So that is something we need to calculate to really start honking about it.

The wind is worth honking about and the risk of power outages due to down trees / limbs. Leaves are basically off now minus a few oaks so that helps, but any old or weak trees will be problematic in some areas. Then with the cold air rushing in your home will cool off quickly. Have a generator, a kerosene heater, etc. some way of getting alternative heat. There is also a fire risk here so def use common sense and make sure it's well ventilated. Don't set it on carpet or anything that can catch fire. Make sure it isn't too close to a wall, etc etc. Common sense stuff.

Now thru Wednesday is the time to prepare and have a game plan. Get food, alcoholic beverages medicines, cash, charge those cell phones on Thursday... make sure your car is filled up, that never hurts. Etc. Etc. That is my message for today. These are the highest impacts in my opinion based on the data I have seen. Snow, low visibilities are secondary impacts.

Couldn’t agree more to get prepared. Today or Tuesday will be your best chances before the crazies raid the stores. Was out at Kroger, Walmart, and Lowes this morning in Mason and people are already out preparing. This isn’t going to be a joke of a storm so heed Les advise….go now and get your preps

As a current manager at Kroger, you are not wrong. I’ve been chatting with higher-ups over the last day or so and advising that we be prepared for a higher than normal influx of business. It’s already crazy given the upcoming holiday. This mess from Mama Nature sure doesn’t help. Talk about bad timing

[dce]

Yea , not much change in EU again. Verbatim, after the change over to snow ,looks like a .10"- .25" leftover QPF for the region.

I think that's the tricky part of the forecast. Ratios that could quickly go to 20-30:1 would make for 2-5 inches with that amount of liquid. However, many times the precip is over estimated by the models in this set up.

[tpweather]

Big snow amounts have been off the table here in our region for 36-48 hours now. So that’s not surprising. Les, remember I told you on Sat that this thing was going west. But in the end, all that really changes are snow totals. We will def get some snow, and I’m pretty confident with a brief thump of heavy snow with big flakes as the front blows through. Then temps crash and winds increase. Impacts are going to be high regardless of getting 1-3” or a lot more. Friday is going to be a brutal day. This heat miser is not happy

The Jack Frost part is 100% real.

I plan on wearing shorts on Friday and the neighbors are not a fan when I wear shorts anytime of the year. I am still a day away from saying we don't get hit a little harder. 78 blizzard was not even on the map 48 hours before it happened and that is why when I see cross-polar air masses I tend to wait because models very seldom see this type of cold and how quickly it moves in. Last week I said the forecast I would throw out if my life depended on it would be rain to snow,flash freeze and 1-3 inches snow and blowing snow. That may end up happening but when you remember events that you actually witness then that is always in the back of your mind of what could happen. Yes models are so much better and much of that time period was still using hand made maps but I need to see how deep this trough is forecast to go and hopefully by Tuesday I will feel confident enough to make a decent call.

[tpweather]

Yea , not much change in EU again. Verbatim, after the change over to snow ,looks like a .10"- .25" leftover QPF for the region.

I think that's the tricky part of the forecast. Ratios that could quickly go to 20-30:1 would make for 2-5 inches with that amount of liquid. However, many times the precip is over estimated by the models in this set up.

Doug I know Les mentioned this the other day as well and that is when we get those systems with wind its hard to figure really how much snow you got and one side of the yard is bare and the other has a foot of snow that has piled up against a fence. Ratios are much easier with less winds but I do believe you go from 10-1 to 20-1 and maybe higher very quickly but we just don't know at the moment how precip is still around.

[Trevor]

Yea , not much change in EU again. Verbatim, after the change over to snow ,looks like a .10"- .25" leftover QPF for the region.

I think that's the tricky part of the forecast. Ratios that could quickly go to 20-30:1 would make for 2-5 inches with that amount of liquid. However, many times the precip is over estimated by the models in this set up.

I’m telling ya…that changeover is going to be wicked. It’ll be quick hit so lower ratios should be used versus higher. Big flakes and a quick thump before it shuts off. Then some minor fluff on top on Friday from wrap around snow showers and squalls.

[Trevor]

But it won’t matter much by Friday as the damage will be done. Any fluff will be blown around by the wind.

[tpweather]

This is a time where I will not shovel. I usually get out there and shovel as the storm is going on but I will need traction with this system so a few inches of snow should help big time plus I bought new tires today as well.

[Bgoney]

Yea , not much change in EU again. Verbatim, after the change over to snow ,looks like a .10"- .25" leftover QPF for the region.

I think that's the tricky part of the forecast. Ratios that could quickly go to 20-30:1 would make for 2-5 inches with that amount of liquid. However, many times the precip is over estimated by the models in this set up.

I’m telling ya…that changeover is going to be wicked. It’ll be quick hit so lower ratios should be used versus higher. Big flakes and a quick thump before it shuts off. Then some minor fluff on top on Friday from wrap around snow showers and squalls.

Yea, i think the winds are going to cancel out any high ratios , it will feel like your getting sand blasted, I like the range 1-3" call for the Cvg, Dayton, cbus triangle

[tron777]

I don't think that the EPS is changing either. Euro / EPS are pretty much locked in.

[tron777]

Yea , not much change in EU again. Verbatim, after the change over to snow ,looks like a .10"- .25" leftover QPF for the region.

I think that's the tricky part of the forecast. Ratios that could quickly go to 20-30:1 would make for 2-5 inches with that amount of liquid. However, many times the precip is over estimated by the models in this set up.

I’m telling ya…that changeover is going to be wicked. It’ll be quick hit so lower ratios should be used versus higher. Big flakes and a quick thump before it shuts off. Then some minor fluff on top on Friday from wrap around snow showers and squalls.

Yea, i think the winds are going to cancel out any high ratios , it will feel like your getting sand blasted, I like the range 1-3" call for the Cvg, Dayton, cbus triangle

I'm on board with this too.

[Trevor]

Solid agreement. Always a plus!

[tpweather]

Starting to the winter storm watches go up from Northern Texas to Iowa. The map in 2 days will be very colorful. Yes there will be some blizzard watches and warning with this storm and funny with blizzards its not so much the heavy snow but the wind and visibility that brings out those warning though having heavy snow does not help the situation. So many blizzards in the far northern regions of Siberia and Canada but snowfall amounts many times are less than 1 inch.

[Trevor]

Starting to the winter storm watches go up from Northern Texas to Iowa. The map in 2 days will be very colorful. Yes there will be some blizzard watches and warning with this storm and funny with blizzards its not so much the heavy snow but the wind and visibility that brings out those warning though having heavy snow does not help the situation. So many blizzards in the far northern regions of Siberia and Canada but snowfall amounts many times are less than 1 inch.

Like I said earlier the NWS alert map will be puked on with multiple headlines for various cold-season impacts. Should be quite the sight to see!

[tron777]

Wow... kind of shocked here but IND has already hoisted Winter Storm Watches for some of their counties North and West of IND Metro. 48 hours to go I can understand like in Minnesota but it's just a tad early in my mind for any counties in the Ohio Valley. Only guess I have is that they wanted to give the public more lead time since we are in the Holiday Traveling Period.

[tron777]

Latest thoughts from the boys: A nice read!

Surface high pressure pushes to our northeast on Wednesday, with a
low pressure system beginning to strengthen as it moves on the lee
side of the Rockies. Surface low undergoes strong cyclogenesis as we
progress in time, which is the primary system to monitor for the
impactful winter weather.

Dry conditions expected through Wednesday and perhaps most of
Wednesday night now. Onset of pcpn is more likely to occur early to
mid morning on Thursday. Weak isentropic lift should offer some
scattered rain showers during the daytime hours. Thermal profiles
have started to trend warmer on Thursday based on latest model runs,
with surface temperatures now favored to reach the 40s for most of
our CWA. This will favor liquid rain as the primary p-type for
Thursday.

Thursday night into Friday is when travel conditions will worsen
across the area. The good news is that there has been a pretty good
consensus that the track of the low pressure center will remain just
west of our CWA. This general track is not as favorable for
producing copious amounts of snowfall, particularly for our CWA.
There is expected to be a good surge in moisture just out ahead of
the cold front that will increase rain shower coverage/intensity
during the early part of Thursday night. As the strong cold front
begins to push through, there should be a fairly rapid transition
from rain to snow during the overnight period. A brief wintry-mix
certainly cannot be ruled out during this transition period, but any
mix will not be long-lasting. Rapid temperature drops will occur
during this transition phase, which will be something to monitor
closely as those wet pavements eventually drop below freezing and
roads become very slick overnight. Wet snow will begin to accumulate
overnight into Friday morning, but trends still suggest that no more
than a couple of inches will be favored during this period.

The story for Friday will then focus on a combination of dangerously
cold temperatures moving in, accompanied by enhanced (and
potentially damaging) winds, as well as additional snowfall.
Temperatures will continue to fall throughout the day on Friday,
dropping surface temps into the teens and even single digits by the
afternoon for our western counties. As this occurs, the pressure
gradient will continue to tighten and increase surface winds
throughout the day. Winds will begin to gust above 30 mph pretty
much everywhere, and will even approach the 40-50 mph range,
especially across eastern IN and western OH. On top of this,
additional energy pivoting around the back side of the surface low
will allow for scattered snow showers to linger throughout the day
Friday and persist into Friday night. This snow will be much drier
and fluffier due to the colder and drier air, making it even easier
to blow and drift around. The combination of all these factors will
provide treacherous travel conditions due to the slick roads and
reduced visibilities that may appear as "white-out" conditions at
times for some locations.

Sub-zero wind chills begin on Friday and will continue all through
Saturday and even into the beginning of Sunday. Dangerously cold
wind chills approaching -20 degrees during this time period will
lead to an increased concern of frostbite and even hypothermia if
exposed to these temperatures, even for brief periods outdoors.
While accumulating snowfall and travel hazards become less of a
factor on Saturday, the cold weather combined with breezy conditions
will still be a major concern. Temperatures will begin to trend a
smidge warmer on Sunday and the windier conditions will subside a
bit, but some sub-zero wind chills or single digit wind chills will
still be likely during the day.

[Trevor]

Looks like ILN and I agree, esp re: thump of snow and flash freeze potential, then the following wicked conditions on Friday. This is going to be big one for our area, even though we won’t see crazy snowfall amounts.