December 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and what a great weekend in store with tons of football and of course trying to figure exactly how this pattern is going to play out over the next two weeks. Cold is a no doubter but figuring out different systems will be tough at first and usually gets easier once the pattern has taken hold. Yes we will have storms that look great a week away and fizzle and other that pop up 48-72 hours in advance and delivers a nice surprise. Concerning the warmth so far this December and sort of a repeat of November as getting a normal month is anything but normal.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and what a great weekend in store with tons of football and of course trying to figure exactly how this pattern is going to play out over the next two weeks. Cold is a no doubter but figuring out different systems will be tough at first and usually gets easier once the pattern has taken hold. Yes we will have storms that look great a week away and fizzle and other that pop up 48-72 hours in advance and delivers a nice surprise. Concerning the warmth so far this December and sort of a repeat of November as getting a normal month is anything but normal.

Good morning Tim! I'll be at my Brother's this weekend probably tomorrow so may not be posting too much. We are going to be making some slim jim's and firing up his smoker! Good time of year when it gets cold to make things like this for our fishing trips next year. Sometime over the winter, it'll be time to make more sausage too!

Back to weather, and it's going to be a fun weekend and next week of tracking this thing as well as storms beyond the Christmas time period. Can't wait!!!

EDIT: Speaking of football, the Sat night 8:15pm kick off between the Dolphins and Bills (to be played in BUF) maybe a snow game if models are correct showing lake effect snow occurring. Always love snow games!

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and what a great weekend in store with tons of football and of course trying to figure exactly how this pattern is going to play out over the next two weeks. Cold is a no doubter but figuring out different systems will be tough at first and usually gets easier once the pattern has taken hold. Yes we will have storms that look great a week away and fizzle and other that pop up 48-72 hours in advance and delivers a nice surprise. Concerning the warmth so far this December and sort of a repeat of November as getting a normal month is anything but normal.

Good morning Tim! I'll be at my Brother's this weekend probably tomorrow so may not be posting too much. We are going to be making some slim jim's and firing up his smoker! Good time of year when it gets cold to make things like this for our fishing trips next year. Sometime over the winter, it'll be time to make more sausage too!

Back to weather, and it's going to be a fun weekend and next week of tracking this thing as well as storms beyond the Christmas time period. Can't wait!!!

EDIT: Speaking of football, the Sat night 8:15pm kick off between the Dolphins and Bills (to be played in BUF) maybe a snow game if models are correct showing lake effect snow occurring. Always love snow games!

Good Luck Miami lol

[tron777]

That weak wave for Tues of next week is finally getting into the early stages of the NAM and it's very similar to the GFS in trying to keep that system somewhat intact (barely) as it moves thru for a touch of snow / rain (to the south). We'll see... still not holding out much hope but we have been surprised before.

[tron777]

Good Luck Miami lol

You're not kidding! Hope it snows like hell there in Orchard Park.

[tpweather]

That weak wave for Tues of next week is finally getting into the early stages of the NAM and it's very similar to the GFS in trying to keep that system somewhat intact (barely) as it moves thru for a touch of snow / rain (to the south). We'll see... still not holding out much hope but we have been surprised before.

Interesting system Les and playing out somewhat different than I thought and that is because the northern energy looks to be the strongest. On the recent run they do not merge and again give it another day but I am trying to figure out how both of these pieces of energy will affect the system on Thursday. The pieces of the puzzle are many and always moving and with a new pattern sometimes we need to see where the puzzle pieces end up falling.

[tron777]

That weak wave for Tues of next week is finally getting into the early stages of the NAM and it's very similar to the GFS in trying to keep that system somewhat intact (barely) as it moves thru for a touch of snow / rain (to the south). We'll see... still not holding out much hope but we have been surprised before.

Interesting system Les and playing out somewhat different than I thought and that is because the northern energy looks to be the strongest. On the recent run they do not merge and again give it another day but I am trying to figure out how both of these pieces of energy will affect the system on Thursday. The pieces of the puzzle are many and always moving and with a new pattern sometimes we need to see where the puzzle pieces end up falling.

That was kind of the trend overnight for Thurs / Fri also. Northern stream becoming more dominant. This is typical in a La Nina. It's tough to get phasing systems to phase into decent systems, so some change is needed as in a taller PNA ridge so the northern stream can dig more and better timing / wave spacing to try and phase in with the STJ.

[tpweather]

Before the models start running and usually I wait but with a new pattern that is rather rare for us I want to make a point about how the cold invades the USA and how this will have major impacts on possible systems. Are we doing a step down approach where we get theses 1030-35 highs working in which is what I would like to see at first or do we see these 1050 highs bully their way in and cold overtakes the country and this bodes well for folks south and east of here. I have no ideal which ideal or any other possible ideal may pan out so that is why I am looking forward to the model runs this weekend as I expect changes quite often

[tron777]

Before the models start running and usually I wait but with a new pattern that is rather rare for us I want to make a point about how the cold invades the USA and how this will have major impacts on possible systems. Are we doing a step down approach where we get theses 1030-35 highs working in which is what I would like to see at first or do we see these 1050 highs bully their way in and cold overtakes the country and this bodes well for folks south and east of here. I have no ideal which ideal or any other possible ideal may pan out so that is why I am looking forward to the model runs this weekend as I expect changes quite often

Most models I have seen show the strength of the high in the 1050-1060 MB range as it enters the CONUS. It makes sense because the flow is going to be coming directly from Siberia (cross polar flow) thanks to the -EPO / -AO / -NAO combination. This arctic front and associated shortwave is very strong IMO. How much can the trough dig and can things slow down enough for a better snowfall? We will have to wait and see.

[tpweather]

Before the models start running and usually I wait but with a new pattern that is rather rare for us I want to make a point about how the cold invades the USA and how this will have major impacts on possible systems. Are we doing a step down approach where we get theses 1030-35 highs working in which is what I would like to see at first or do we see these 1050 highs bully their way in and cold overtakes the country and this bodes well for folks south and east of here. I have no ideal which ideal or any other possible ideal may pan out so that is why I am looking forward to the model runs this weekend as I expect changes quite often

Most models I have seen show the strength of the high in the 1050-1060 MB range as it enters the CONUS. It makes sense because the flow is going to be coming directly from Siberia (cross polar flow) thanks to the -EPO / -AO / -NAO combination. This arctic front and associated shortwave is very strong IMO. How much can the trough dig and can things slow down enough for a better snowfall? We will have to wait and see.

Les I just was not sure because it seems the closer we get the 1050-60 range ends up 1040-50 range so I know the other day models switched to having a stronger push into the USA but just want to make sure that is correct because if we can get several pieces to come on a more staggered timing that imo is giving us a better shot of a bigger storm.

[tron777]

Before the models start running and usually I wait but with a new pattern that is rather rare for us I want to make a point about how the cold invades the USA and how this will have major impacts on possible systems. Are we doing a step down approach where we get theses 1030-35 highs working in which is what I would like to see at first or do we see these 1050 highs bully their way in and cold overtakes the country and this bodes well for folks south and east of here. I have no ideal which ideal or any other possible ideal may pan out so that is why I am looking forward to the model runs this weekend as I expect changes quite often

Most models I have seen show the strength of the high in the 1050-1060 MB range as it enters the CONUS. It makes sense because the flow is going to be coming directly from Siberia (cross polar flow) thanks to the -EPO / -AO / -NAO combination. This arctic front and associated shortwave is very strong IMO. How much can the trough dig and can things slow down enough for a better snowfall? We will have to wait and see.

Les I just was not sure because it seems the closer we get the 1050-60 range ends up 1040-50 range so I know the other day models switched to having a stronger push into the USA but just want to make sure that is correct because if we can get several pieces to come on a more staggered timing that imo is giving us a better shot of a bigger storm.

I don't see why that stronger push of cold wouldn't be correct since it is coming from a very cold source region. The northern stream wave is currently in Russia and won't be coming into the CONUS for another 4-5 days. Def agree with you as we share the same thoughts with regards to wave spacing.

[tron777]

IMO, so far on the 12Z GFS at 138 hours, the trough is digging more and the PNA ridge also looks better as in more taller and it's location is very nice right along the west Coast of North America.

[tron777]

Oh yeah... this should turn out to be a nice run! At 144, the surface low is much further south vs 6Z and stronger to boot. Check out that monster high too of 1063 MB coming in behind it! Wowza!

[tpweather]

Oh yeah... this should turn out to be a nice run! At 144, the surface low is much further south vs 6Z and stronger to boot. Check out that monster high too of 1063 MB coming in behind it! Wowza!

I believe since that is the mother load we see a more step down in the cold earlier in the week and this no doubt should help in getting a surface low to form much further south.

[tpweather]

We also must remember the front itself on Thursday will have plenty of lift and with that kind of cold coming in the ratios are going to go upwards towards 20-1 rather fast. One thing is also an upper system and models are stupid when it comes to these so expect one to be 100-150 miles northwest of the surface low once it forms.

[tpweather]

The CMC has done a complete turnaround as it was out to sea with the system later in the week and now its showing a rain to snow outcome.

[tron777]

Oh yeah... this should turn out to be a nice run! At 144, the surface low is much further south vs 6Z and stronger to boot. Check out that monster high too of 1063 MB coming in behind it! Wowza!

I believe since that is the mother load we see a more step down in the cold earlier in the week and this no doubt should help in getting a surface low to form much further south.

Correct. I agree. Early next week is a step down process to cold as that high behind that weak wave is only like 1050 MB or whatever it was. This cold shot of air coming behind the late next week system is going to mean business whether we see light, mod, or hvy snow out of the storm itself. Whatever we get isn't going anywhere and the more snow we get, the colder Christmas we'll have as well.

WOW! The 500 MB Low (or upper low) actually closes off over the TN Valley! Now we're talking! This is the look we want right here for a bigger system. You keep that trend going and have that upper low close off just a tad quicker and we would get buried by this system. So we need the taller PNA ridge so the northern wave can dig more and then we need the 500 Low to close off a tad sooner then shown on this run. Badda Bing, Badda Boom! We're shoveling Mister!

[dce]

A blend between the 12z GFS, 12z CMC, and the 00z Euro would give us a very nice event. The GFS is a little too far south for my liking, but it could be right. So much time to go before we get to the event. It feels like we should only be a couple days away as long as we have been discussing this event.

[tpweather]

Oh yeah... this should turn out to be a nice run! At 144, the surface low is much further south vs 6Z and stronger to boot. Check out that monster high too of 1063 MB coming in behind it! Wowza!

I believe since that is the mother load we see a more step down in the cold earlier in the week and this no doubt should help in getting a surface low to form much further south.

Correct. I agree. Early next week is a step down process to cold as that high behind that weak wave is only like 1050 MB or whatever it was. This cold shot of air coming behind the late next week system is going to mean business whether we see light, mod, or hvy snow out of the storm itself. Whatever we get isn't going anywhere and the more snow we get, the colder Christmas we'll have as well.

WOW! The 500 MB Low (or upper low) actually closes off over the TN Valley! Now we're talking! This is the look we want right here for a bigger system. You keep that trend going and have that upper low close off just a tad quicker and we would get buried by this system. So we need the taller PNA ridge so the northern wave can dig more and then we need the 500 Low to close off a tad sooner then shown on this run. Badda Bing, Badda Boom! We're shoveling Mister!

Bingo Les and the 500 MB low is key especially in this area of the country.

[tron777]

We also must remember the front itself on Thursday will have plenty of lift and with that kind of cold coming in the ratios are going to go upwards towards 20-1 rather fast. One thing is also an upper system and models are stupid when it comes to these so expect one to be 100-150 miles northwest of the surface low once it forms.

Using the GFS, CVG gets 0.50" of QPF with temps beginning in the upper 20s falling into the upper teens to around 20 by Friday morning as the event winds down. Agree with you completely Tim of ratios giving us more bang for the buck.

[tron777]

The CMC has done a complete turnaround as it was out to sea with the system later in the week and now its showing a rain to snow outcome.

The CMC is much stronger with the northern wave and really digs it further to the SW. the PNA ridge is much further to the West. Nice and tall but it's position is the problem here. The low is able to get wound up and cut into the Lakes despite the blocking on top. Granted the low may not cut that bad in reality but the Pacific is 100% the problem on this run.

[tpweather]

Will the Euro head towards the CMC this round as usually they play together. What a big change in 24 hours with the cmc. Expect more of this over the weekend. I am not even going to complain to much with the models this go around because this pattern is not one we see every year. We may get bits and pieces but cross-polar outbreak does not happen every winter around here.

[tron777]

A blend between the 12z GFS, 12z CMC, and the 00z Euro would give us a very nice event. The GFS is a little too far south for my liking, but it could be right. So much time to go before we get to the event. It feels like we should only be a couple days away as long as we have been discussing this event.

Absolutely Doug! We were tracking this pattern change for like 3-4 weeks and it felt like forever for it to get here. But it's here so hopefully we can make the most of it.

[tron777]

Will the Euro head towards the CMC this round as usually they play together. What a big change in 24 hours with the cmc. Expect more of this over the weekend. I am not even going to complain to much with the models this go around because this pattern is not one we see every year. We may get bits and pieces but cross-polar outbreak does not happen every winter around here.

Blocking has been absent most winters as of late and esp in December! This has a shot to be the best December since 2010 should we get hit by a couple of these systems. I'm not even talking big dogs. You get a couple 1-3" or 2-4" events and there you go. That is drastically better then most Decembers we've had in the last decade.

[tpweather]

Les no matter what happens late next week you have mentioned the wind for several days and that is going to be an issue. The CMC would bring less snow but a worse outcome with a huge flash freeze.