December 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Parts of Australia continue to get significant cold intrusions for what now is their summer, most impressive was the -5.4C (22.3F) set at Mt. Hotham, a reading which felled the State of Victoria’s lowest December (and summer) temperature ever recorded, the -5.2C (22.6F) from Dec 20, 1978 (solar minimum of cycle 20).

The Caribbean has also been unusually cold , coldest December start for some of the islands in 30 years. Martinique had their lowest temp ever recorded of 53 degrees

Wow! Truly some fascinating stats you've listed. Been a lot of unusual to record cold across the globe. You probably saw that tweet I posted from yesterday about a town in Siberia that has recorded their coldest temp in the last 30 or 40 years for December. Definitely looking like the CONUS will have its turn very shortly.

[tpweather]

Do we end up with more than 1 inch of rain by Thursday morning. Interesting as the front heading this way is forming a nice low pressure and why you see parts of Wisconsin getting some heavy snow. This low is strengthening as it heads along the front. Yes we will have more rain later this evening and early Thursday but with a strengthening storm this can bring in a dry slot quicker and shut off the rainfall. At the same time a low is trying to form off the east coast and always hard to determine when it starts to grab moisture west of the apps.

Check out the SPC mesopage, Tim. The primary low of 998 MB continues to weaken over NE Nebraska. A new low is starting to form (as you mentioned) over Louisiana and that'll be round 2 for us later on today into tonight. Then that low will weaken and give way to the East Coast event for later this week. It appears my original idea of 3 total lows is going to work out after all.

Les you are correct and the 3 lows ended up being correct. My forecast really never relied much on whether it was 2 lows or 3 lows. I kept the lower end of rainfall of .5-1 as just never sold on the higher totals even though I saw how it could happen and still could happen. Very board area of disturbed weather and that also kept me from going higher.

[tron777]

Do we end up with more than 1 inch of rain by Thursday morning. Interesting as the front heading this way is forming a nice low pressure and why you see parts of Wisconsin getting some heavy snow. This low is strengthening as it heads along the front. Yes we will have more rain later this evening and early Thursday but with a strengthening storm this can bring in a dry slot quicker and shut off the rainfall. At the same time a low is trying to form off the east coast and always hard to determine when it starts to grab moisture west of the apps.

Check out the SPC mesopage, Tim. The primary low of 998 MB continues to weaken over NE Nebraska. A new low is starting to form (as you mentioned) over Louisiana and that'll be round 2 for us later on today into tonight. Then that low will weaken and give way to the East Coast event for later this week. It appears my original idea of 3 total lows is going to work out after all.

Les you are correct and the 3 lows ended up being correct. My forecast really never relied much on whether it was 2 lows or 3 lows. I kept the lower end of rainfall of .5-1 as just never sold on the higher totals even though I saw how it could happen and still could happen. Very board area of disturbed weather and that also kept me from going higher.

The idea of us being impacted by two lows versus only 1 IMO is the difference between the two forecasts we had for this event in terms of rainfall totals. I believe this next low forming slows the front down to our west and allows for another 1/2 to 1" to occur with the second round on top of the 1/2" or whatever most folks have already picked up with the first round that is still ongoing.

[tpweather]

Do we end up with more than 1 inch of rain by Thursday morning. Interesting as the front heading this way is forming a nice low pressure and why you see parts of Wisconsin getting some heavy snow. This low is strengthening as it heads along the front. Yes we will have more rain later this evening and early Thursday but with a strengthening storm this can bring in a dry slot quicker and shut off the rainfall. At the same time a low is trying to form off the east coast and always hard to determine when it starts to grab moisture west of the apps.

Check out the SPC mesopage, Tim. The primary low of 998 MB continues to weaken over NE Nebraska. A new low is starting to form (as you mentioned) over Louisiana and that'll be round 2 for us later on today into tonight. Then that low will weaken and give way to the East Coast event for later this week. It appears my original idea of 3 total lows is going to work out after all.

Les you are correct and the 3 lows ended up being correct. My forecast really never relied much on whether it was 2 lows or 3 lows. I kept the lower end of rainfall of .5-1 as just never sold on the higher totals even though I saw how it could happen and still could happen. Very board area of disturbed weather and that also kept me from going higher.

The idea of us being impacted by two lows versus only 1 IMO is the difference between the two forecasts we had for this event in terms of rainfall totals. I believe this next low forming slows the front down to our west and allows for another 1/2 to 1" to occur with the second round on top of the 1/2" or whatever most folks have already picked up with the first round that is still ongoing.

Les that is possible and if the low continues to get stronger we need to watch for the dry slot. Les how many times when the forecasts are different it ends up in the middle and especially with precip totals.

[tron777]

Do we end up with more than 1 inch of rain by Thursday morning. Interesting as the front heading this way is forming a nice low pressure and why you see parts of Wisconsin getting some heavy snow. This low is strengthening as it heads along the front. Yes we will have more rain later this evening and early Thursday but with a strengthening storm this can bring in a dry slot quicker and shut off the rainfall. At the same time a low is trying to form off the east coast and always hard to determine when it starts to grab moisture west of the apps.

Check out the SPC mesopage, Tim. The primary low of 998 MB continues to weaken over NE Nebraska. A new low is starting to form (as you mentioned) over Louisiana and that'll be round 2 for us later on today into tonight. Then that low will weaken and give way to the East Coast event for later this week. It appears my original idea of 3 total lows is going to work out after all.

Les you are correct and the 3 lows ended up being correct. My forecast really never relied much on whether it was 2 lows or 3 lows. I kept the lower end of rainfall of .5-1 as just never sold on the higher totals even though I saw how it could happen and still could happen. Very board area of disturbed weather and that also kept me from going higher.

The idea of us being impacted by two lows versus only 1 IMO is the difference between the two forecasts we had for this event in terms of rainfall totals. I believe this next low forming slows the front down to our west and allows for another 1/2 to 1" to occur with the second round on top of the 1/2" or whatever most folks have already picked up with the first round that is still ongoing.

Les that is possible and if the low continues to get stronger we need to watch for the dry slot. Les how many times when the forecasts are different it ends up in the middle and especially with precip totals.

The result usually is in between both of our calls the majority of the time. You're right! It's uncanny how that works out sometimes. We needed this soaker though to help with the drought conditions. I'm ready for snow now!

[Bgoney]

GFS cooking up something for Xmas eve and eve dinner along and just ahead of the Arctic front

[tron777]

If you're watching the 12Z GFS run coming in... you should already notice some differences in this run vs the 6Z run with regards to next week. Heights seem a little higher on this run with low pressure systems being a bit further north and the entire flow across the US is a bit slower as well. These little differences in timing translate to big changes in our sensible weather. The big trough's angle of attack on the CONUS is a bit to the NW of the 6Z run due to slight changes in ridging over the Pacific. (Remember the PNA we keep talking about) In addition the trough over New England by the middle of next week is also deeper and slower to exit stage right. Due to the overall slower solution, the trough coming in is able to dig more and by Thurs afternoon on the 22nd, it begins to pull up moisture from the Gulf which is good to see.

The end result of this run is a brief rain quickly turning over to snow with the majority of the precip being anafrontal (post frontal) which is wonderful! Cold air is crashing in now Thurs night and with any moisture that is left behind the front snow ratios would quickly go up. I will say this, whatever happens in the snow dept. it going to be difficult to measure. It will be a wind driven snow without a doubt thanks to the large and strong arctic high driving the cold air into the country. This run to me is a nod to the foreign models. This is a nice GFS run in my opinion. Now what we don't want is for things to be too slow then you get more rain vs snow since the system will cut more to the NW so it's a delicate balance speed wise. I could live with this run of the GFS should it pan out. Probably won't verbatim though since we are still very far away from this event. I suspect more changes are in the offing.

I don't see any signs of a low popping and running up the front on this GFS run accept maybe for extreme NNE (mountains of New England) or something. For us... that would be what you'd need for a big dog solution. Have the front get banked up against the Apps and have a low ride up along it instead of NNE. I am not forecasting this obviously but for a big one, that is what you're looking for in this type of set up. For now, realistically, an arctic cold front with a wave of snow along and behind the front is mainly what we're dealing with. There is a potential for a few inches of snow should everything work out right. The chance of a big dog is low but not zero.

[airwolf76]

If you're watching the 12Z GFS run coming in... you should already notice some differences in this run vs the 6Z run with regards to next week. Heights seem a little higher on this run with low pressure systems being a bit further north and the entire flow across the US is a bit slower as well. These little differences in timing translate to big changes in our sensible weather. The big trough's angle of attack on the CONUS is a bit to the NW of the 6Z run due to slight changes in ridging over the Pacific. (Remember the PNA we keep talking about) In addition the trough over New England by the middle of next week is also deeper and slower to exit stage right. Due to the overall slower solution, the trough coming in is able to dig more and by Thurs afternoon on the 22nd, it begins to pull up moisture from the Gulf which is good to see.

The end result of this run is a brief rain quickly turning over to snow with the majority of the precip being anafrontal (post frontal) which is wonderful! Cold air is crashing in now Thurs night and with any moisture that is left behind the front snow ratios would quickly go up. I will say this, whatever happens in the snow dept. it going to be difficult to measure. It will be a wind driven snow without a doubt thanks to the large and strong arctic high driving the cold air into the country. This run to me is a nod to the foreign models. This is a nice GFS run in my opinion. Now what we don't want is for things to be too slow then you get more rain vs snow since the system will cut more to the NW so it's a delicate balance speed wise. I could live with this run of the GFS should it pan out. Probably won't verbatim though since we are still very far away from this event. I suspect more changes are in the offing.

I don't see any signs of a low popping and running up the front on this GFS run accept maybe for extreme NNE (mountains of New England) or something. For us... that would be what you'd need for a big dog solution. Have the front get banked up against the Apps and have a low ride up along it instead of NNE. I am not forecasting this obviously but for a big one, that is what you're looking for in this type of set up. For now, realistically, an arctic cold front with a wave of snow along and behind the front is mainly what we're dealing with. There is a potential for a few inches of snow should everything work out right. The chance of a big dog is low but not zero.

Honestly you are putting way too much into 1 model run over a week out bruh. but anyways for now I will focus on whats in front of me. a nice average December day today with a bit of snow sleet and rain coming Tomorrow into early Friday. I am expecting a solid 1-3" type event. a normal garden variety December snow event, on par for how this year has been, a very boring and average fall so far.

[tron777]

If you're watching the 12Z GFS run coming in... you should already notice some differences in this run vs the 6Z run with regards to next week. Heights seem a little higher on this run with low pressure systems being a bit further north and the entire flow across the US is a bit slower as well. These little differences in timing translate to big changes in our sensible weather. The big trough's angle of attack on the CONUS is a bit to the NW of the 6Z run due to slight changes in ridging over the Pacific. (Remember the PNA we keep talking about) In addition the trough over New England by the middle of next week is also deeper and slower to exit stage right. Due to the overall slower solution, the trough coming in is able to dig more and by Thurs afternoon on the 22nd, it begins to pull up moisture from the Gulf which is good to see.

The end result of this run is a brief rain quickly turning over to snow with the majority of the precip being anafrontal (post frontal) which is wonderful! Cold air is crashing in now Thurs night and with any moisture that is left behind the front snow ratios would quickly go up. I will say this, whatever happens in the snow dept. it going to be difficult to measure. It will be a wind driven snow without a doubt thanks to the large and strong arctic high driving the cold air into the country. This run to me is a nod to the foreign models. This is a nice GFS run in my opinion. Now what we don't want is for things to be too slow then you get more rain vs snow since the system will cut more to the NW so it's a delicate balance speed wise. I could live with this run of the GFS should it pan out. Probably won't verbatim though since we are still very far away from this event. I suspect more changes are in the offing.

I don't see any signs of a low popping and running up the front on this GFS run accept maybe for extreme NNE (mountains of New England) or something. For us... that would be what you'd need for a big dog solution. Have the front get banked up against the Apps and have a low ride up along it instead of NNE. I am not forecasting this obviously but for a big one, that is what you're looking for in this type of set up. For now, realistically, an arctic cold front with a wave of snow along and behind the front is mainly what we're dealing with. There is a potential for a few inches of snow should everything work out right. The chance of a big dog is low but not zero.

Honestly you are putting way too much into 1 model run over a week out bruh. but anyways for now I will focus on whats in front of me. a nice average December day today with a bit of snow sleet and rain coming Tomorrow into early Friday. I am expecting a solid 1-3" type event. a normal garden variety December snow event, on par for how this year has been, a very boring and average fall so far.

I'm not putting too much into anything LOL I was merely posting what the model was showing along with my own thoughts of things I want to see in terms of a low chance big dog as we near Christmas. Nothing more honestly then that. Obviously it is a week out and we have no idea what's going to happen but this is a weather forum so model runs and items of interest should be discussed, bruh.

[tron777]

12Z CMC was a really interesting run. Almost has that big dog look to it. We do see a low pop along the arctic front and it intensifies as it does so moving up the Apps. Then it dies and a new low pops and tracks up the East side of the Apps. The Canadian sees the secondary low popping idea on the front but I think it's unsure of track and intensity. Like which side of the Apps does it run up? I don't think I've ever seen something like what the Canadian is showing. Usually if a low moves up into West Virginia and dies, you usually get the East Coast low much closer to the coast and not over the central Carolinas like the CMC is showing. This really wasn't much different then the 0Z run albeit a little further NW track wise which benefits us in the long run.

[tpweather]

Les you are correct and you just gave out what the model showed. I love the Euro today if you are looking to get the big storm. We need the cold to head almost due south from the northern plains to southern plains which in turn brings up heights to the east and with this kind of arctic front you will get a nice storm. I want the northern energy to slow down some and then hopefully we can get the two together near the Mississippi River. Again we will have several different outcomes with the models and some will have it swinging through quickly which is a rain to snow outcome which can produce a few inches because of the deep cold air. All we can do is say the pattern is primed. Still trying to get my earlier in the week system to wake up but again I have seen this play out before and then 2 days before and boom they all catch on so not giving up that easy or maybe just a stubborn old man lol

[tpweather]

Just to add concerning the big storm and most of the time this is not shown weeks or even days ahead of the system. Usually you will see the players on the field like today and for the big storm to happen many things must happen. When we look at models the discussion is what the models are showing and not a forecast. For a model or met or even a forecaster to give out a perfect forecast a week in advance is mainly luck. Yes you can get the pattern correct and then hopefully the players on the field work together but its always a moving puzzle.

[Bgoney]

Oh boy, lots to say , but I will hold my tongue for now. Yes , we talk about what the models say days in advance because we know the hunt is usually the most exciting part of winter

[tpweather]

So far .45 at CVG with the first round of rainfall. You can really see the increase of rainfall in Missouri and Illinois that is with the front and heading this way for later this evening into early Thursday. How much rainfall is still in question with the this second round as a few options are still on the table. No doubt we get rainfall and 1/2 looks likely but will we get more has a lot to do with a low pressure forming and moving up the front. The stronger it gets the more likely we wrap dry air in on the southwest side and the can end the rain quickly. However if the low does not strengthen then the rain can last several hours longer. Either way a nice dose of rainfall for mid-December

[tron777]

Les you are correct and you just gave out what the model showed. I love the Euro today if you are looking to get the big storm. We need the cold to head almost due south from the northern plains to southern plains which in turn brings up heights to the east and with this kind of arctic front you will get a nice storm. I want the northern energy to slow down some and then hopefully we can get the two together near the Mississippi River. Again we will have several different outcomes with the models and some will have it swinging through quickly which is a rain to snow outcome which can produce a few inches because of the deep cold air. All we can do is say the pattern is primed. Still trying to get my earlier in the week system to wake up but again I have seen this play out before and then 2 days before and boom they all catch on so not giving up that easy or maybe just a stubborn old man lol

That low sitting there along the SE Coast as the arctic front heads into the OV I also thought was interesting. That feature should help to slow the front down as well I would think.

[tron777]

Oh boy, lots to say , but I will hold my tongue for now. Yes , we talk about what the models say days in advance because we know the hunt is usually the most exciting part of winter

It is for me and that's a big reason why I am here! I really enjoy trying to figure it out and it's a good challenge to keep our minds working.

[tron777]

So far .45 at CVG with the first round of rainfall. You can really see the increase of rainfall in Missouri and Illinois that is with the front and heading this way for later this evening into early Thursday. How much rainfall is still in question with the this second round as a few options are still on the table. No doubt we get rainfall and 1/2 looks likely but will we get more has a lot to do with a low pressure forming and moving up the front. The stronger it gets the more likely we wrap dry air in on the southwest side and the can end the rain quickly. However if the low does not strengthen then the rain can last several hours longer. Either way a nice dose of rainfall for mid-December

Agreed Tim! This system should get the water tables back to where we'd like them to be. Not sure what the drought maps will show over the next couple of weeks but in my honest opinion, this system ought to about take care of the situation in my book. I had around 6 tenths last time I checked my Weather Station which was about an hour ago.

[tron777]

[tron777]

White Christmas stats from the boys: (For CVG, DAY, and CMH) It's very rare as I am sure most of you know. But it's cool to see what years featured one and which ones didn't.

https://www.weather.gov/media/iln/climo ... tology.pdf

[mainevilleweather]

Bruh! It's winter and I am back!

[tron777]

Bruh! It's winter and I am back!

Welcome back! Your timing couldn't have been better.

[Bgoney]

The upcoming pattern has looked good on the mods for quite some time now. But as we get even closer to the next 7-14 days models have improved on the "looks good" part. The trend the last few runs has pushed the western ridge onto or along the coast and also strengthened it , upping our region to cash in on wintry precip, of course no guarantees. One thing that does look like a guarantee and I believe Les mentioned this yesterday, is the winds near Xmas will be howling, models have been consistent with this feature.

[tron777]

The upcoming pattern has looked good on the mods for quite some time now. But as we get even closer to the next 7-14 days models have improved on the "looks good" part. The trend the last few runs has pushed the western ridge onto or along the coast and also strengthened it , upping our region to cash in on wintry precip, of course no guarantees. One thing that does look like a guarantee and I believe Les mentioned this yesterday, is the winds near Xmas will be howling, models have been consistent with this feature.

Great post! It will be windy due to a strong pressure gradient between the low / arctic front and monster arctic high dropping into Montana from Western Canada. I'm also confident in precip occurring with the arctic front. I also believe it'll be a very quick transition from rain to snow. How much moisture is left behind the front and do we get a low to pop and if so, do we get that favorable track are all questions that we will need to answer over the next week.

[tron777]

18Z GFS run is way more progressive for later next week on this run. The trough is positively tilted and it's more of an open wave. A completely different solution then what any other model has shown thus far. An easy toss...

Regardless of what happens, Christmas is going to be very cold. If we can get some snow on the ground it'll get damn cold!

[Bgoney]

Fairly large tornado on traffic cams in New Orleans