December 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

I found this December -NAO stat to be interesting.

[Browneyedgirl]

Kinda surprised no wind advisory issued yet. Models are advertising gusts up to 50mph. Maybe they’ll issue later.

Hi Trev,

You'll have to try the Golden Lamb sometime bro.

That place is packed with history and those like Benjamin Franklin, Harriet Beecher Stowe ("Uncle Tom's Cabin") e.g. etc have dined and lodged there.

It’s on my list and only a few minute walk from my place

Did you survive the carriage parade day? Makes for a crazy day in Lebanon.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Chilly out there, eh? A low of 21 I believe at CVG, had 20 here. Boone Co mesonet site also down to 21. We will rise up into the U30s today maybe a few 40s out there at most. Rain moves in late tomorrow and esp by evening. This kicks off a well advertised period of rain chances and mild conditions in the 40s and 50s for highs. I am still sticking with the heaviest rains coming Thurs and Fri. Total rains for the entire period (Mon thru Fri) still looking to be 0.50-0.75" I just see no reason to change this call and models for the most part continue to show this idea.

In the medium to long range period, I am thinking we see one more rainer Sunday into Monday (Dec 11-12th) which should then, begin to kick start the much awaited and anticipated wintry pattern. So let's see how good or bad I do with this call. Could it be delayed a bit? Yes, we've already discussed that possibility. But it will not be denied IMHO. I'm doing the best I can to trust the pattern, trust my instincts, and ignore a lot of the model mayhem we will continue to see over the next week.

[young pup]

A cold frosty morning here. Frost is still hanging on where the sun has not hit yet.

[tron777]

A cold frosty morning here. Frost is still hanging on where the sun has not hit yet.

Yeah! The little bit of greenery here that is left, should be gone after this morning.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and some more frost this morning. Lets see later today if the models especially the gfs is headed in the right direction in terms of cold weather. So far the upgrade is no better imo. How much rain is the question and again no change from my forecast through Thursday withe lighter amounts towards I-70 around .5 and maybe less in some areas especially the further north you go. Locally still believe 1-2 inches seem good and folks further south of I-64 could see over 2 inches.

[tron777]

Good Morning and some more frost this morning. Lets see later today if the models especially the gfs is headed in the right direction in terms of cold weather. So far the upgrade is no better imo. How much rain is the question and again no change from my forecast through Thursday withe lighter amounts towards I-70 around .5 and maybe less in some areas especially the further north you go. Locally still believe 1-2 inches seem good and folks further south of I-64 could see over 2 inches.

Good morning Tim! Upgrade or no upgrade, the GFS (and a lot of models really) are going to continue to struggle with such an extreme NAO block that we are seeing develop. That is my opinion as to why that model has been changing so darn much every 6 hours that it is run. The GEFS don't change quite as bad mind you, but still not very consistent. The EPS has been and continues to be, the most consistent solution out there in the longer term so my call that I talked about this morning, I have a lot of the Euro model family ideas incorporated into it. To your point and I agree with you on this 100%, the OP GFS is just a piece of junk model and it always struggles with massive -NAO blocks. Most of the global models are struggling and will continue to do so.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and I agree with you on how the models are struggling with a rather massive -NAO and -AO expected. I believe later this week the operation models will come around. Once we get into the pattern how long does it last. Many times between 15-20 days but getting this in the second half of Dec and depending how much snow covers the eastern half of the USA may extend that when we try and get the January Thaw. I am still waiting for a bigger storm to so up especially next weekend or the following week. Big pattern changes usually gives us a big storm or maybe two to ring in the new pattern.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and I agree with you on how the models are struggling with a rather massive -NAO and -AO expected. I believe later this week the operation models will come around. Once we get into the pattern how long does it last. Many times between 15-20 days but getting this in the second half of Dec and depending how much snow covers the eastern half of the USA may extend that when we try and get the January Thaw. I am still waiting for a bigger storm to so up especially next weekend or the following week. Big pattern changes usually gives us a big storm or maybe two to ring in the new pattern.

I love that part of your post that I have highlighted. I've always been a big believer in that. Whenever a colder pattern either locks in, or goes away, the potential for a bigger storm is there. As you know, not necessarily for our local area but somewhere close by for sure. Another week of patience is required (again which we both know) until hopefully we can lock in on something more definitive. I see snow as close as N IN, N OH and S Mich by late next week or next weekend... then after that, we shall see if we continue to wait or if our chances start coming or at least start to show up more on guidance.

[tpweather]

Looks like the GFS and CMC both have a big storm in about 10 days or so off the east coast. Will this be correct and most likely not exactly as it is shown today but the difference is the CMC is much colder and has an upper system that gives us some snow. The difference out west is very important as the CMC is trying to form a ridge that goes up the west coast while the gfs continue to have a trough over the same area. So again this is 10 days out and yes over the next several days we will see different outcomes but the storm off the east coast is something that happens quite often especially with a stronger negative NAO.

[MVWxObserver]

Good morning all! Chilly out there, eh? A low of 21 I believe at CVG, had 20 here. Boone Co mesonet site also down to 21. We will rise up into the U30s today maybe a few 40s out there at most. Rain moves in late tomorrow and esp by evening. This kicks off a well advertised period of rain chances and mild conditions in the 40s and 50s for highs. I am still sticking with the heaviest rains coming Thurs and Fri. Total rains for the entire period (Mon thru Fri) still looking to be 0.50-0.75" I just see no reason to change this call and models for the most part continue to show this idea.

In the medium to long range period, I am thinking we see one more rainer Sunday into Monday (Dec 11-12th) which should then, begin to kick start the much awaited and anticipated wintry pattern. So let's see how good or bad I do with this call. Could it be delayed a bit? Yes, we've already discussed that possibility. But it will not be denied IMHO. I'm doing the best I can to trust the pattern, trust my instincts, and ignore a lot of the model mayhem we will continue to see over the next week.

I'll be keeping tabs on the 13th Bro as my folks plan to celebrate Mom's 83rd birthday and their 61st pre-anniversary celebration going up to Shipshewana, IN (Amish country) in the northeast region of that state to see a dinner theater stage production. Then they'll stay overnight in Middlebury, IN and head home sometime on the 14th.

[tron777]

Looks like the GFS and CMC both have a big storm in about 10 days or so off the east coast. Will this be correct and most likely not exactly as it is shown today but the difference is the CMC is much colder and has an upper system that gives us some snow. The difference out west is very important as the CMC is trying to form a ridge that goes up the west coast while the gfs continue to have a trough over the same area. So again this is 10 days out and yes over the next several days we will see different outcomes but the storm off the east coast is something that happens quite often especially with a stronger negative NAO.

Great post Tim! The PNA as we've talked about. Big differences because of that. We wait and see.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Chilly out there, eh? A low of 21 I believe at CVG, had 20 here. Boone Co mesonet site also down to 21. We will rise up into the U30s today maybe a few 40s out there at most. Rain moves in late tomorrow and esp by evening. This kicks off a well advertised period of rain chances and mild conditions in the 40s and 50s for highs. I am still sticking with the heaviest rains coming Thurs and Fri. Total rains for the entire period (Mon thru Fri) still looking to be 0.50-0.75" I just see no reason to change this call and models for the most part continue to show this idea.

In the medium to long range period, I am thinking we see one more rainer Sunday into Monday (Dec 11-12th) which should then, begin to kick start the much awaited and anticipated wintry pattern. So let's see how good or bad I do with this call. Could it be delayed a bit? Yes, we've already discussed that possibility. But it will not be denied IMHO. I'm doing the best I can to trust the pattern, trust my instincts, and ignore a lot of the model mayhem we will continue to see over the next week.

I'll be keeping tabs on the 13th Bro as my folks plan to celebrate Mom's 83rd birthday and their 61st pre-anniversary celebration going up to Shipshewana, IN (Amish country) in the northeast region of that state to see a dinner theater stage production. Then they'll stay overnight in Middlebury, IN and head home sometime on the 14th.

We've gotcha covered as always Bro!

[young pup]

A cold frosty morning here. Frost is still hanging on where the sun has not hit yet.

Yeah! The little bit of greenery here that is left, should be gone after this morning.

Yep, I agree still have a little green around here as well.

[tron777]

Good evening everyone! 42 here today IMBY, 41 at CVG. Temps are quickly dropping thru the 30s and eventually into the 20s. It won't be quite as cold as this morning as a light southerly flow has already developed on the backside of the high. We will slowly warm tomorrow ahead of our next system with increasing clouds. We will probably get stuck in the 40s for highs tomorrow as a result. Then as you already know, we turn wet and mild (on and off) for the next 5-7 days.

Then we continue to track the pattern change that we continue to talk about on here. The 18Z GFS this evening looked a lot more interesting but the GFS keeps bouncing around so much it is tough to trust much at this time. Still it's better then it showing a torch, right? Lots of fun tracking ahead folks.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and getting ready for a rather active week. Rainfall should be in that 1-2 inch range locally by the time Thursday ends. Some concern for heavier rains in central and southern Kentucky and I agree with that possible outcome. Further north still like the .5 for most around I-70 but that could be lighter or heavier and will need to see how far the warm front goes later this week and since its not an arctic air mass it may move further north than models show. Then we may have one more system later in the weekend before we really start kicking off the winter season. No doubt colder air will arrive but will the storminess be coming as well. Still expecting a bigger storm or two to help change the pattern but models usually have a hard time with that until we get within the 5 day range so probably later this week or weekend we may see some wilder outcomes.

[tron777]

Tim... we have been tracking this change for so long (like 2-3 weeks now) that I am glad we are finally seeing a bit of light at the end of the tunnel. By the end of this week, we should have a much clearer picture (I hope LOL) as to where we are headed for mid month and the week leading up to Christmas.

[tpweather]

Tim... we have been tracking this change for so long (like 2-3 weeks now) that I am glad we are finally seeing a bit of light at the end of the tunnel. By the end of this week, we should have a much clearer picture (I hope LOL) as to where we are headed for mid month and the week leading up to Christmas.

Les I agree and the models have been giving us head fakes but we never fell for them. Still not there but getting close and hopefully by late week the model foolishness will have gone away for the most part.

[tron777]

Tim... we have been tracking this change for so long (like 2-3 weeks now) that I am glad we are finally seeing a bit of light at the end of the tunnel. By the end of this week, we should have a much clearer picture (I hope LOL) as to where we are headed for mid month and the week leading up to Christmas.

Les I agree and the models have been giving us head fakes but we never fell for them. Still not there but getting close and hopefully by late week the model foolishness will have gone away for the most part.

Exactly! I feel the same way. I trust the pattern as I said earlier. This NAO block is legit and IMHO won't be going anywhere anytime soon. I still believe it'll reload for early January too before the January thaw comes in. We will worry about all of that later. My point is, the party is only just beginning for us and a lot of fun times are ahead. I truly believe that everything is continuing to develop as expected.

Again, we have had good patterns before and didn't cash in snow wise. It happens. We've scored in junk patterns. It also happens. But I am the type of guy who has always played the odds. I use statistics too in some of my calls. You win some you lose some as is typical in weather. But I'll ya one thing... if the change comes when we expect it too AND if we do cash in... IMHO, you and I will have made one of the better long range calls in a very, very long time.

[tpweather]

I agree Les and we called the 10 day cold in November when temps were in the 70's so figuring out the pattern is number one for me when making a forecast. If I get the pattern wrong then usually my forecast goes down the tubes. The mjo is making a quick decent in the COD and heading for phase 3 which is not a good phase. I believe that will not happen and will rotate in the COD before maybe coming back into phase 1 or 8 in about 10-14 days. That would fit perfect with the change to a winter pattern. Another thing I normally do is when I see a pattern then the models see it they tend to rush things so I always tend to be further out in time when it comes to pattern changes. Such a big world and though the models can pick up on some subtle hints it just takes time. We both have been really good on the timeline and lets hope that is correct.

[tron777]

I agree Les and we called the 10 day cold in November when temps were in the 70's so figuring out the pattern is number one for me when making a forecast. If I get the pattern wrong then usually my forecast goes down the tubes. The mjo is making a quick decent in the COD and heading for phase 3 which is not a good phase. I believe that will not happen and will rotate in the COD before maybe coming back into phase 1 or 8 in about 10-14 days. That would fit perfect with the change to a winter pattern. Another thing I normally do is when I see a pattern then the models see it they tend to rush things so I always tend to be further out in time when it comes to pattern changes. Such a big world and though the models can pick up on some subtle hints it just takes time. We both have been really good on the timeline and lets hope that is correct.

I couldn't agree more with everything you have said here. You have to get the pattern right first then it does make it much easier to get an individual storm system right when you understand the background state (the pattern in other words). Like you, I am also expecting the MJO to stay in the neutral circle for a while. If it does come back out in Phase 8 or 1 then LOOK THE HECK OUT! Otherwise, if it stays in the neutral circle even longer, I am totally okay with that too.

[airwolf76]

another nice average early December day. have to admit the weather in general this fall has been a very nice normal average year as far as precip and temps. if we continue like this then I have no doubt as this month wears on that we see more in the way of cold and snow

[tron777]

Good morning! A chilly start in the 20s with another nice frost! We will warm up into the 40s today with rain possible before the day is thru. Light rain though and the same for Tues. afternoon and night. Wed should be the warmest day kind of in between systems. Can we make a run at 60? I'll keep temps in the 50s for now. The bulk of the rain I am still expecting on Thurs perhaps ending earlier by Fri morning. amounts for the week are unchanged from me. 0.50 to 0.75". Could someone get an inch? Sure. There are always going to be isolated amounts higher then my range but for me to verify the majority of the obs should be in my forecast range.

A dry Sat then our next system works in to usher in the pattern change. Euro and CMC have a viable solution with a low into the OV which transfers its energy to an East Coast Low. Classic solution in blocking patterns. Once we get to this point, hopefully we can time our snow chances better in the longer term.

[tpweather]

Good morning! A chilly start in the 20s with another nice frost! We will warm up into the 40s today with rain possible before the day is thru. Light rain though and the same for Tues. afternoon and night. Wed should be the warmest day kind of in between systems. Can we make a run at 60? I'll keep temps in the 50s for now. The bulk of the rain I am still expecting on Thurs perhaps ending earlier by Fri morning. amounts for the week are unchanged from me. 0.50 to 0.75". Could someone get an inch? Sure. There are always going to be isolated amounts higher then my range but for me to verify the majority of the obs should be in my forecast range.

A dry Sat then our next system works in to usher in the pattern change. Euro and CMC have a viable solution with a low into the OV which transfers its energy to an East Coast Low. Classic solution in blocking patterns. Once we get to this point, hopefully we can time our snow chances better in the longer term.

Good Morning Les. Will agree on almost everything though I am little higher on rainfall totals. I was trying to figure out where the warm front sets up this week and I have it south of us which then throws moisture over the top and we get the totals between 1-2 inches with the heaviest south of here between Cincy and Lexington. Could I see less amounts and no doubt but at the end of the day I kept the higher amounts in the forecast. Thursday could be really a wet day with many hours of rainfall so we have already received 0.11 so need another 0.89 to get that 1 inch total.

Should be fun to see the latest run of the gfs as it changes every run and the changes are major. I agree the Euro and Cmc may not be perfect but yo don't see the wild swings and if it does happen with them that most likely means something will change.

[tron777]

Good morning! A chilly start in the 20s with another nice frost! We will warm up into the 40s today with rain possible before the day is thru. Light rain though and the same for Tues. afternoon and night. Wed should be the warmest day kind of in between systems. Can we make a run at 60? I'll keep temps in the 50s for now. The bulk of the rain I am still expecting on Thurs perhaps ending earlier by Fri morning. amounts for the week are unchanged from me. 0.50 to 0.75". Could someone get an inch? Sure. There are always going to be isolated amounts higher then my range but for me to verify the majority of the obs should be in my forecast range.

A dry Sat then our next system works in to usher in the pattern change. Euro and CMC have a viable solution with a low into the OV which transfers its energy to an East Coast Low. Classic solution in blocking patterns. Once we get to this point, hopefully we can time our snow chances better in the longer term.

Good Morning Les. Will agree on almost everything though I am little higher on rainfall totals. I was trying to figure out where the warm front sets up this week and I have it south of us which then throws moisture over the top and we get the totals between 1-2 inches with the heaviest south of here between Cincy and Lexington. Could I see less amounts and no doubt but at the end of the day I kept the higher amounts in the forecast. Thursday could be really a wet day with many hours of rainfall so we have already received 0.11 so need another 0.89 to get that 1 inch total.

Should be fun to see the latest run of the gfs as it changes every run and the changes are major. I agree the Euro and Cmc may not be perfect but yo don't see the wild swings and if it does happen with them that most likely means something will change.

Totally agree.... Even from an Ensemble model standpoint, the EPS has been way more consistent then the GEFS. That GFS upgrade is almost like a "downgrade" in terms of its performance right now. It's dreadful... So, I am keeping my thoughts in line with the more consistent looks we are seeing from the OP Euro and CMC and the EPS (for Ensemble support).