tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:48 pm
EPS this afternoon continues look to good with a -NAO and -EPO combination and a more neutral PNA. Still keeping my 12/10 - 12/15 time frame for more sustainable cold. Just see no reason to change it right now. I may give it 5-7 days before fine tuning a more definitive date,
Les I had mid month so my time line was 12/16 so will stick with that but again with both of the forecasts looks to be a more gradual change so it may be hard to pinpoint exactly when the change occurs. Still see no snow except at the end of a system so still my guess is about 2 weeks away. Like molasses flowing out its slow and slow and slow but once it hits the pancakes you are happy.
Tim... my call may need to be adjusted simply because I made it so long ago. About 3 weeks ago if I recall, something like that. So if I am off by a few days, to me it's not a problem. Same with your 16th call. If it's a couple of days off, big deal. To me everything is still on track and as we have both said, it will be a slow change without question.
After I'm done working, I may not be back on until tomorrow. Got to head over to Milford to see my niece Harper in a play. The Milford Children's Theater (or whatever it's called) are putting on a production of Beauty and the Beast, Jr.
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:38 pm
So far, the only wind advisory I see issued are for folks N of I-70. Maybe that's all they are doing?
Including the cities of Richmond, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater,
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine,
Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, and Urbana
230 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2022
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
expected. Winds will become northwest Saturday morning.
* WHERE...Portions of East Central Indiana and Central and West
Central Ohio.
* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday.
Glad my trash and recyclables pickup was this morning!
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 4:50 pm
After I'm done working, I may not be back on until tomorrow. Got to head over to Milford to see my niece Harper in a play. The Milford Children's Theater (or whatever it's called) are putting on a production of Beauty and the Beast, Jr.
Good Morning and a steady decline in temps today plus windy will make it feel much colder this afternoon. So why does the cold keep getting pushed back by the models and again models are good at sniffing out pattern changes at times but for the most part horrible with timing. For much of the autumn season the coldest of weather has been on this side of the globe but that has changed in the past few days and folks in parts of Siberia are in the -60 - -70 range while northern Canada the coldest is around -40. Still plenty of cold in much of Canada so the helps when we finally get a nice trough over the eastern USA. So we have a -A0 and Nao expected for a period of time but we also have a -PNA and that is keeping us mild.This must change and head towards neutral or my favorite a slightly positive so we get the troughs to develop and much further south.I still believe mid-month around the 16th so we are still about 2 weeks away. Will we see anything in the way of winter weather before then and probably but it would be minor until we get some deeper cold air to settle in.
So what can go wrong department would happen if the cold in Siberia heads further west towards eastern Europe. I will watch this over the next week as this would cause a problem in terms of us getting really cold and could destroy many forecasts on this forum and many met's across the country.
Concerning next week and rainfall totals. Going to be a front somewhere in the Ohio or Tn valley with several waves moving along the front. Where this sets up is still in question and again a stronger wave will push the front further north and a weaker one has the front settle more in the Tn Valley. Rainfall totals and we got 1/10 last night and I believe by next Thursday 1-2 seems to be the most likely outcome locally. Folks heading towards I-70 will probably be closer to .5 and folks heading towards central and southern Kentucky should be more in line to get 2 inches plus. Again I will check this out on Sunday and hopefully the models have a better handle on how the waves will play out.
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 4:50 pm
After I'm done working, I may not be back on until tomorrow. Got to head over to Milford to see my niece Harper in a play. The Milford Children's Theater (or whatever it's called) are putting on a production of Beauty and the Beast, Jr.
Sweet!
Is Harper the Beauty?
Currently 52 here in G'ville.
The play was for 3rd graders thru 8th graders so the older kids had the bigger parts and leading roles. With Harper being in the 3rd grade, she had several non-speaking parts. She was a wolf, a fork, and a villager.
CVG got 0.11" event total for this first system so it's about what we thought would happen amounts wise. We stand the risk of a rain chance almost everyday next week. Highest chances continue to look like Mon night into Tues and Tues night into Wed. Still going with my 0.50 to 0.75" call for the entire week. Could go up or down depending on where the frontal boundary is and where each low tracks along it. Could start seeing some colder air seeping in towards the end of the week giving snow chances to MI, N IN, and N OH while AV Land is still on the warm side with rain. We are going to have to wait until we approach mid month for chances here. But, we've been saying that over and over anyway on here so it's not a shock to us.
12Z GFS has minimal rainfall amounts on this run until Thursday and Fri when the better rains come in. The pattern turns colder on this run around the 12th or 13th.
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 03, 2022 11:56 am
12Z GFS has minimal rainfall amounts on this run until Thursday and Fri when the better rains come in. The pattern turns colder on this run around the 12th or 13th.
I'm quoting this post because of the 12Z GFS's longer range. A complete reversal from the last few days. SE Ridge gets destroyed and we finally get some +PNA. The GEFS and EPS have been very consistent in showing the colder pattern. This is the first time in quite awhile that the OP GFS actually matches up nicely with the Ensemble run. We want to continue seeing this going forward for our confidence to increase.
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 03, 2022 11:56 am
12Z GFS has minimal rainfall amounts on this run until Thursday and Fri when the better rains come in. The pattern turns colder on this run around the 12th or 13th.
I'm quoting this post because of the 12Z GFS's longer range. A complete reversal from the last few days. SE Ridge gets destroyed and we finally get some +PNA. The GEFS and EPS have been very consistent in showing the colder pattern. This is the first time in quite awhile that the OP GFS actually matches up nicely with the Ensemble run. We want to continue seeing this going forward for our confidence to increase.
Les always good to see and the positive PNA is key even though we have a negative AO and NAO we needed at least a neutral PNA but I would like a slightly positive to help us in digging systems in the south central USA and not just the southeast. Patience has been the word of the week and that is fine. Do I know if the new pattern will be snowy and have no ideal until we see how the jets streams realign themselves.
Folks... Let's also highlight something very important that Tim constantly posts about. That are temps in our cold air source regions. Tim always talks about what is going on in AK, Siberia and the like. He's correct. I pay attention to it as well even if I don't post on it as much as Tim does. I'm glad he does since it's less I have to look at. I mean sheesh... I look at so much already, right? Anyway, here are the minimum temps this morning in Western Canada. VERY IMPRESSIVE for early December with regard to the snow and cold build up. When the pattern is ready to release the cold for our hoods, we will have plenty of it to go around. No doubt about that.
CanadaCold.jpg
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tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 03, 2022 12:58 pm
Les always good to see and the positive PNA is key even though we have a negative AO and NAO we needed at least a neutral PNA but I would like a slightly positive to help us in digging systems in the south central USA and not just the southeast. Patience has been the word of the week and that is fine. Do I know if the new pattern will be snowy and have no ideal until we see how the jets streams realign themselves.
Nothing has really changed all that much in my mind, other then the possibility that I am a few days too fast. Again as I said yesterday, for a call made 3+ weeks ago, I am totally fine with that! I many not even need to change anything by the same token. We have a long way to go. Over the next week, if our thoughts are going to be right Tim... then we should begin to see more of what we are seeing right now on the guidance. We should start to see more agreement as to timing on the change. Once we get that down, then we can start our focus on individual storm systems.
As a side note, we will probably make separate storm threads again like we did last winter when something becomes apparent within Day 5 or whatever. So far, I don't see anything worth making a separate thread on. That's going to change in my mind and soon!
Les some great posts above and not much to add. We saw the cold temps in northern Canada start to move the other day and that is shown with the temps in southern Canada and also in the northern plains the next few days. Tons of snow in much of Canada this season and though the eastern part of the country has been lighter in totals expect that to pick up as well over the next few weeks. I do want to see more snowfall in the central and northern plains and again with the La Nina that area can be drier than normal. The thoughts we posted last month are working out fine and by this time next week I believe we really start to see the changes on the models.
Want to add of course but we talk about the southeast ridge and its there but in a somewhat different location. More of a southeast and south central ridge that is a southwest to northeast kind of ridge. Many times when you have the normal southeast ridge storms are still able to dig in the southern plains but this set up we need ridging on the west coast which should start to happen next week and this will have those troughs dig deeper. Once we get the cold in here I expect plenty of southwest winds and that can work once you have the cold air in place as that brings up moisture but not quite the warmth you get many times with a normal southeast ridge.
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 03, 2022 1:31 pm
Les some great posts above and not much to add. We saw the cold temps in northern Canada start to move the other day and that is shown with the temps in southern Canada and also in the northern plains the next few days. Tons of snow in much of Canada this season and though the eastern part of the country has been lighter in totals expect that to pick up as well over the next few weeks. I do want to see more snowfall in the central and northern plains and again with the La Nina that area can be drier than normal. The thoughts we posted last month are working out fine and by this time next week I believe we really start to see the changes on the models.
Want to add of course but we talk about the southeast ridge and its there but in a somewhat different location. More of a southeast and south central ridge that is a southwest to northeast kind of ridge. Many times when you have the normal southeast ridge storms are still able to dig in the southern plains but this set up we need ridging on the west coast which should start to happen next week and this will have those troughs dig deeper. Once we get the cold in here I expect plenty of southwest winds and that can work once you have the cold air in place as that brings up moisture but not quite the warmth you get many times with a normal southeast ridge.
Awesome post Tim and that last paragraph is the best part of your post. What you have described here to me is an overrunning event and in Nina gradient patterns like I am expecting, that is what you get a lot of the time.
12Z Euro is also in better agreement today with the other 12z models. The heaviest rains next week are on Thurs and Fri which the GFS also showed. Another system after that ushers in the colder pattern which again, is what the GFS showed. I hope next week we see some of these trends hold so we can get some better forecasts out there for our readers.
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 03, 2022 2:15 pm
12Z Euro is also in better agreement today with the other 12z models. The heaviest rains next week are on Thurs and Fri which the GFS also showed. Another system after that ushers in the colder pattern which again, is what the GFS showed. I hope next week we see some of these trends hold so we can get some better forecasts out there for our readers.
Les this makes sense as we are getting the warm and cold air together and this will help in getting more precip. Sort of funny last week we thought Monday or Tuesday of the upcoming week would be the bigger system and that looks to be a few days down the road and really just taking the pattern a few extra days to switch and that is wonderful. Having a pattern change to cold anywhere in the 10-17the of December will most of the time bring us a winter like feel for the holidays. Not saying we have tons of snow but the new pattern will allow chances and that is all we can ask this far away.
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 03, 2022 2:15 pm
12Z Euro is also in better agreement today with the other 12z models. The heaviest rains next week are on Thurs and Fri which the GFS also showed. Another system after that ushers in the colder pattern which again, is what the GFS showed. I hope next week we see some of these trends hold so we can get some better forecasts out there for our readers.
Les this makes sense as we are getting the warm and cold air together and this will help in getting more precip. Sort of funny last week we thought Monday or Tuesday of the upcoming week would be the bigger system and that looks to be a few days down the road and really just taking the pattern a few extra days to switch and that is wonderful. Having a pattern change to cold anywhere in the 10-17the of December will most of the time bring us a winter like feel for the holidays. Not saying we have tons of snow but the new pattern will allow chances and that is all we can ask this far away.
Right now the data is showing decent rains Thurs and Fri and again next Sunday or so. Then give or take 2 or 3 days after that... which puts us in that time frame we are both mentioning which is mid December. We should get progressively colder by then as well as the cold having better staying power as the block continues to get established and the PNA is showing signs of being more neutral of not weakly positive by then which we all know will help. I like how this timing is working out for the week leading up to Christmas. The potential is there.
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 03, 2022 2:38 pm
Enjoy the evening as I will be getting ready for a late afternoon/early evening wedding and reception. Will be back on Sunday morning.
Awesome! Have a great time, Tim. Taking a break myself posting then getting back to assembling the Christmas Tree. Hoping to get that all finished this weekend.
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 4:50 pm
After I'm done working, I may not be back on until tomorrow. Got to head over to Milford to see my niece Harper in a play. The Milford Children's Theater (or whatever it's called) are putting on a production of Beauty and the Beast, Jr.
Sweet!
Is Harper the Beauty?
Currently 52 here in G'ville.
The play was for 3rd graders thru 8th graders so the older kids had the bigger parts and leading roles. With Harper being in the 3rd grade, she had several non-speaking parts. She was a wolf, a fork, and a villager.
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 03, 2022 2:38 pm
Enjoy the evening as I will be getting ready for a late afternoon/early evening wedding and reception. Will be back on Sunday morning.
Hi Tim and Congratulations to the newlyweds to be!
So if I am off by a few days, to me it's not a problem. Same with your 16th call. If it's a couple of days off, big deal. To me everything is still on track and as we have both said, it will be a slow change without question.
