December 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Oh wow! I didn't know the JMA had a Weekly like the Euro. Bet it is on a pay site. Someone leaked it on the internet so here you go! Looks great! This is for Days 10-16.

JMA Weekly.jpg

[tron777]

12Z EPS from Day 7 - 16 showing the evolution of the pattern:

EPSLoop.gif

[Bgoney]

Pretty cool to see a trough from the eastern half of the US , through the North Atlantic across the pond, and covering part of EU. A bit of a throw-back indeed

[tron777]

The Euro Weeklies for Christmas Week: Wow!

EuroWeeklychristmas.png

[Bgoney]

Santa may actually have to wear his fluffy red coat and long John's this year , instead of Bermuda shorts and a tee

[Bgoney]

A once promising first 7 days of Dec. for soaking rains for all of AVland has slowly trended south atm. Central KY on South in line for 1-2+ amounts , with much lighter amounts for cincy, Dayton, Columbus triangle

[tron777]

A once promising first 7 days of Dec. for soaking rains for all of AVland has slowly trended south atm. Central KY on South in line for 1-2+ amounts , with much lighter amounts for cincy, Dayton, Columbus triangle

The southward trend is probably due to the powerful -NAO block I would think. We usually see the NW trend when the SE ridge is in play.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Temps currently in the 30s will warm into the U40s and L50s across the area today. Winds will also pick up in advance of our next system. Rainfall amounts should be light with this system with wind being the bigger story. Gusts in the 30-40 mph range are likely Fri night into Sat. Rain begins late today, probably more likely overnight and ending Sat morning around 7-9am range as the front comes thru. Temps will fall on Sat after the frontal passage as winds remain elevated. A cool day but dry on Sunday for the Bengals match up with Maholmes.

As we roll into next week, another system comes in Mon night into Tues with lingering showers possible on Wed. As cooler air filters in Wed night into Thurs, if we have any lingering moisture around, we could see some sleet pellets or snow flakes mixed in. Not expecting a big deal out of this if we see any frozen precip at all. Low chance at this time.

The pattern continues to get even more complicated thanks to the blocking starting to kick in even more by this point so models are going to continue flipping and flopping in the medium to long range periods. I'm still watching either Fri or next weekend for a wintry system. Models bounce around from a southern slider (which is good for us) to a more developed system that tracks north of us so its rain. An in between solution to this is wintry weather N of I-70 and rain south which is also a possibility this far out.

After that... the hits keep on coming. Ensemble guidance like the EPS continues to show a nice blocking pattern across the top with ridging along the West Coast which is ideal come mid December onwards for the Eastern US. We are awaiting to see when the PNA goes positive (assuming it does) with the -NAO -AO and -EPO becoming more of a cerainty.

[tron777]

[tron777]

2M Temperature anomalies from the EPS for the week of 12/12 - 12/19: (The week after that also looks below avg)

EuroTemps.jpeg

[tron777]

Rainfall amounts with this next system coming in tonight on some of the newer guidance coming in, looks to be in that 0.10 to 0.25" range so light as we've been expecting. Again, the wind will be the bigger deal once again versus the rainfall.

[winterstormjoe]

Rainfall amounts with this next system coming in tonight on some of the newer guidance coming in, looks to be in that 0.10 to 0.25" range so light as we've been expecting. Again, the wind will be the bigger deal once again versus the rainfall.

Yeah, I was planning on getting the fire pit going tonight, but with the wind the smoke will be going everywhere not the mention the rain that may squelch the fire a little. Ugh!

[tron777]

Rainfall amounts with this next system coming in tonight on some of the newer guidance coming in, looks to be in that 0.10 to 0.25" range so light as we've been expecting. Again, the wind will be the bigger deal once again versus the rainfall.

Yeah, I was planning on getting the fire pit going tonight, but with the wind the smoke will be going everywhere not the mention the rain that may squelch the fire a little. Ugh!

I agree Joe. Sat night is a much better night. Colder, dry and the winds should be calming down by then too.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has a stronger system now for the end of next week vs the flatter look we saw with the 6Z run. This run looks to be going in the direction of the 0Z Euro where we had more of a SE ridge influence on the pattern. So for now, let's continue to watch the Ensembles until we get closer. Very very low confidence forecast towards the end of next week and beyond IMO guys while we see how this block materializes and impacts the pattern. As far as ENS guidance goes, GEFS takes longer for us to get to the better pattern (probably after 12/15) where the EPS looks better a few days earlier, like after the 10th or 12th. As we have all stated before, patience is required and we are just watching and waiting honestly at this point. Still keeping that 12/10 to 12/15 call for said pattern change. EPS continues to support it and GEFS supports it starting at the end of the date range (per the overnight runs)

[airwolf76]

pretty nice December day. a little cooler then avg. partly cloudy with a nice cool breeze from the northwest. lots of potential in the long range for sure. the first week of December wont be anything but after that who knows maybe we will have a December to remember after all

Things look favorable for sure Charles for both of our areas. Agree with you. If late next week or next weekend fails, that was just a bonus chance. The better potential is coming later which most on our forum is agreeing upon. That 12/10-12/15 time frame for the pattern to begin producing still looks good to me.

For now they do but I wonder just how strong that NAO is going to be and end up forcing everything south of our areas. the block is forecasted to be a beast of a block we will end up cold and dry for the most part.

[tron777]

pretty nice December day. a little cooler then avg. partly cloudy with a nice cool breeze from the northwest. lots of potential in the long range for sure. the first week of December wont be anything but after that who knows maybe we will have a December to remember after all

Things look favorable for sure Charles for both of our areas. Agree with you. If late next week or next weekend fails, that was just a bonus chance. The better potential is coming later which most on our forum is agreeing upon. That 12/10-12/15 time frame for the pattern to begin producing still looks good to me.

For now they do but I wonder just how strong that NAO is going to be and end up forcing everything south of our areas. the block is forecasted to be a beast of a block we will end up cold and dry for the most part.

Without the block, we'd all be wearing shorts and flip-flops in my opinion. The issue is the PNA staying on the negative side. For us in the OV, we want it to be neutral or weakly positive. Where you are at Charles, you would want to see a more moderate +PNA spike over the Rockies. We need it along the West Coast of North America in the Ohio Valley. If there is a chance that my date range gets delayed by a few days, then to me, the PNA is the cause.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and have not been able to look over much as my son and his whole family are up here for a couple of days. Last night it seemed the models were doing what models do with a pattern change and that is trying to find out how everything will set up later in December. Wanted to check in on the possible rain totals for the early week system and will do that later today.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is in agreement with the rest of the guidance for rainfall amounts tonight. So moving on to next week... light rain shot Mon afternoon into Mon night. Then another chance on Tues afternoon followed by yet a third chance on Wed. All of these systems are light and weak. All rain with each of these waves. Then once we get towards the end of next week, by Thurs more light rain comes in then we finally may end as some light snow, esp Northern posters as we wrap it up by Fri. So with 4 separate waves, we only get like 0.50 to 0.75" of total rainfall. That is very light considering it is spread out over the next week.

Finally yet another system comes in by next weekend with the model showing snow for folks N of Cincy with rain to the south. That system goes on to dump over Interior New England at the end of the run. So in short... lots of small systems with light rain from time to time and some wind. We'll see how the end of next week / next weekend evolves as we get closer. I still have low confidence with all of the run to run changes we've seen.

[Trevor]

Kinda surprised no wind advisory issued yet. Models are advertising gusts up to 50mph. Maybe they’ll issue later.

[tron777]

Kinda surprised no wind advisory issued yet. Models are advertising gusts up to 50mph. Maybe they’ll issue later.

According to their AFD, one is going to be issued but I haven't seen anything yet.

There will be a few hour period late this evening into tonight on the leading edge of the precipitation where some stronger wind gusts will mix down. In addition sustained winds will be upwards of 20 to 30 mph at times. Wind gusts will primarily be under advisory levels during this time, however cannot rule out an advisory level gust mixing down. Due to this, have a wind advisory for the overnight hours.

[tron777]

So far, the only wind advisory I see issued are for folks N of I-70. Maybe that's all they are doing?

Including the cities of Richmond, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater,
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine,
Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, and Urbana
230 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
expected. Winds will become northwest Saturday morning.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central Indiana and Central and West
Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday.

[tpweather]

Les, you mentioned that the models are showing I believe .5-.75 for the next week and that could be correct but with a temperature contrast I thought it would be higher. Going with the 1-2 inch total through next Thursday and will need to look at this again on Sunday.

[tron777]

EPS this afternoon continues look to good with a -NAO and -EPO combination and a more neutral PNA. Still keeping my 12/10 - 12/15 time frame for more sustainable cold. Just see no reason to change it right now. I may give it 5-7 days before fine tuning a more definitive date,

[tron777]

Les, you mentioned that the models are showing I believe .5-.75 for the next week and that could be correct but with a temperature contrast I thought it would be higher. Going with the 1-2 inch total through next Thursday and will need to look at this again on Sunday.

If the lows track further north then we're back to 1-2" which was the original call. I think your best shot at those totals will be S of I-64 per this afternoon's data. Really, the last couple of days have primarily shown that. Now if it's wrong and the SE ridge flexes a bit more then the original 1-2" call is going to be excellent. I am banking on the -NAO to keep the storm track a bit further south so thus the lighter rainfall call of 0.50 to 0.75".

[tpweather]

EPS this afternoon continues look to good with a -NAO and -EPO combination and a more neutral PNA. Still keeping my 12/10 - 12/15 time frame for more sustainable cold. Just see no reason to change it right now. I may give it 5-7 days before fine tuning a more definitive date,

Les I had mid month so my time line was 12/16 so will stick with that but again with both of the forecasts looks to be a more gradual change so it may be hard to pinpoint exactly when the change occurs. Still see no snow except at the end of a system so still my guess is about 2 weeks away. Like molasses flowing out its slow and slow and slow but once it hits the pancakes you are happy.