December 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Tim... and really everyone... The first legit chance at wintry weather is possibly coming by next weekend. If that fails and it's a rain event, the cold will be close by so that the one coming after that, would potentially deliver. So again... the 12/10-12/15 date range still looks good to me. GEFS is painting 8" of snow for us over the next 16 days. A model fantasy but we can at least watch the trends. If we keep seeing snow showing up, it's only a matter of time before it becomes reality IMO with the pattern we are going to be entering. I'm still very excited come mid month on. I continue to see nice analogs showing up like Dec 2010, 1978, 1995, and a couple of other years that we neither had bad luck or the East Coast got it and we were cold and dry.

[tron777]

12Z EPS is in and it looks very cold and active. However around 12/11-12/14 period, the model has a 500 MB pattern favorable for a nor 'Easter. If the ridge was not over the Rockies and instead over the West Coast, then we'd be in the game. Def worth watching as again, it falls within those dates I have mentioned numerous times.

EPS.png

[tpweather]

Tim... and really everyone... The first legit chance at wintry weather is possibly coming by next weekend. If that fails and it's a rain event, the cold will be close by so that the one coming after that, would potentially deliver. So again... the 12/10-12/15 date range still looks good to me. GEFS is painting 8" of snow for us over the next 16 days. A model fantasy but we can at least watch the trends. If we keep seeing snow showing up, it's only a matter of time before it becomes reality IMO with the pattern we are going to be entering. I'm still very excited come mid month on. I continue to see nice analogs showing up like Dec 2010, 1978, 1995, and a couple of other years that we neither had bad luck or the East Coast got it and we were cold and dry.

Great Post Les. There is plenty to be excited about and we have not even entered December. Okay 1 day away but we are early in the season and not only some decent analogs showing up but you look across the globe and see how things are shaping up and it points to a decent cold spell in the lower 48. No it may not be the coldest spell in the world but there is such a nice snow pack that the cold air can last longer on its journey southward. Do we get snow and again I have seen great patterns where we miss the snows and seen bad patterns where we get hit. Most likely we will get some snow but is it the 1 inch type we get so much of around here or can we get hit with a couple of at least moderate snows of 2-5 inches. Sure love to see a bigger snow but not getting greedy just yet lol

[tpweather]

12Z EPS is in and it looks very cold and active. However around 12/11-12/14 period, the model has a 500 MB pattern favorable for a nor 'Easter. If the ridge was not over the Rockies and instead over the West Coast, then we'd be in the game. Def worth watching as again, it falls within those dates I have mentioned numerous times.


EPS.png

Les the alignment me of the ridge and troughs can make a difference and many times you will see those troughs move southwest. We usually get more east coast storms with a more negative NAO so that is why I would like to see just a somewhat negative NAO. Either way its better than a positive one to say the least.Just to add and love to see the trough that is off the west coast to be further west or well southwest. If you can get the ridge to form over California and Arizona and connect towards Alaska then we are in business. Another thing with this is the Yucatan high is gone and what happens many times is deeper moisture near South America will try to be forced northward and many times that is southern Texas of western GOM. Again many questions that need to be answered but being bored is not going to be the problem.

[tron777]

12Z EPS is in and it looks very cold and active. However around 12/11-12/14 period, the model has a 500 MB pattern favorable for a nor 'Easter. If the ridge was not over the Rockies and instead over the West Coast, then we'd be in the game. Def worth watching as again, it falls within those dates I have mentioned numerous times.


EPS.png

Les the alignment me of the ridge and troughs can make a difference and many times you will see those troughs move southwest. We usually get more east coast storms with a more negative NAO so that is why I would like to see just a somewhat negative NAO. Either way its better than a positive one to say the least.

A +PNA combined with a -EPO and -NAO can sometimes be better for the East Coast and we are just cold and dry... esp if the ridge is over the Rockies like the 12Z EPS shows. A more neutral PNA I think is better for us to keep the storm track a bit more NW and not along the East Coast. I've said it before and I'll say it again... a -PNA can work if the -EPO and -NAO blocks are in the correct spots. Once the -EPO reloads getting into the 10th on... plus the -NAO will be retrograding West by then potentially even hooking up with the -EPO ridge! If that happens, the storm track would automatically get pushed south and east so you'd want a neutral to weakly -PNA or else a +PNA would def favor the East Coast. As I have learned over the years (and you guys too) that the position of a ridge or trough means a lot more then just saying a certain teleconnection is positive or negative.

This December has potential to deliver wintry weather to our area esp the second half. We have not seen this since Dec 2010. That was the last cold and snowy Dec we've had. It's been that long! Even in the nice winter of 2013-2014, Dec was mild then winter came after the New Year.

[tpweather]

12Z EPS is in and it looks very cold and active. However around 12/11-12/14 period, the model has a 500 MB pattern favorable for a nor 'Easter. If the ridge was not over the Rockies and instead over the West Coast, then we'd be in the game. Def worth watching as again, it falls within those dates I have mentioned numerous times.


EPS.png

Les the alignment me of the ridge and troughs can make a difference and many times you will see those troughs move southwest. We usually get more east coast storms with a more negative NAO so that is why I would like to see just a somewhat negative NAO. Either way its better than a positive one to say the least.

A +PNA combined with a -EPO and -NAO can sometimes be better for the East Coast and we are just cold and dry... esp if the ridge is over the Rockies like the 12Z EPS shows. A more neutral PNA I think is better for us to keep the storm track a bit more NW and not along the East Coast. I've said it before and I'll say it again... a -PNA can work if the -EPO and -NAO blocks are in the correct spots. Once the -EPO reloads getting into the 10th on... plus the -NAO will be retrograding West by then potentially even hooking up with the -EPO ridge! If that happens, the storm track would automatically get pushed south and east so you'd want a neutral to weakly -PNA or else a +PNA would def favor the East Coast. As I have learned over the years (and you guys too) that the position of a ridge or trough means a lot more then just saying a certain teleconnection is positive or negative.

This December has potential to deliver wintry weather to our area esp the second half. We have not seen this since Dec 2010. That was the last cold and snowy Dec we've had. It's been that long! Even in the nice winter of 2013-2014, Dec was mild then winter came after the New Year.

I agree Les and though the pna is negative it is trying to go towards neutral which to me is a great place for us with everything else involved. Another great thing is snow is going to be accumulating north of us over the next week to 10 days and this is another important part of the puzzle.And that alone does not bring us snow but it can bring down some cold and then we worry more about ice which I will take but snow is much better

[tron777]

I agree Les and though the pna is negative it is trying to go towards neutral which to me is a great place for us with everything else involved. Another great thing is snow is going to be accumulating north of us over the next week to 10 days and this is another important part of the puzzle.And that alone does not bring us snow but it can bring down some cold and then we worry more about ice which I will take but snow is much better

Tim, we have both said that this is going to require some patience, and it is! So far though... for the last week or two that we've been talking about it, amazingly enough, the pattern appears to be coming together very nicely. Can't say much more then that. I have a feeling that we will see some systems pop up "out of the blue" so to speak once we get closer to said pattern and we see how each short wave responds.

For now... let's watch the 9-11th period and again the 11-14th period as the NAO block retrogrades and the -EPO reloads. What state the PNA is in by that time, will tell us if we get hit as we approach mid month, or if it's the East Coast.

[tpweather]

I agree Les and though the pna is negative it is trying to go towards neutral which to me is a great place for us with everything else involved. Another great thing is snow is going to be accumulating north of us over the next week to 10 days and this is another important part of the puzzle.And that alone does not bring us snow but it can bring down some cold and then we worry more about ice which I will take but snow is much better

Tim, we have both said that this is going to require some patience, and it is! So far though... for the last week or two that we've been talking about it, amazingly enough, the pattern appears to be coming together very nicely. Can't say much more then that. I have a feeling that we will see some systems pop up "out of the blue" so to speak once we get closer to said pattern and we see how each short wave responds.

For now... let's watch the 9-11th period and again the 11-14th period as the NAO block retrogrades and the -EPO reloads. What state the PNA is in by that time, will tell us if we get hit as we approach mid month, or if it's the East Coast.

Les even before that is early next week and how far south does the cold front go before stalling. Last few runs has been further south and that tells me that colder air is getting more involved with these system each and every week. If we don't get the big rains early next week then maybe just maybe we have a little winter weather mixed in with system closer to us. These highs coming in are around 1035 so nothing really strong but not weak either and of course timing is so key.

[tron777]

I agree Les and though the pna is negative it is trying to go towards neutral which to me is a great place for us with everything else involved. Another great thing is snow is going to be accumulating north of us over the next week to 10 days and this is another important part of the puzzle.And that alone does not bring us snow but it can bring down some cold and then we worry more about ice which I will take but snow is much better

Tim, we have both said that this is going to require some patience, and it is! So far though... for the last week or two that we've been talking about it, amazingly enough, the pattern appears to be coming together very nicely. Can't say much more then that. I have a feeling that we will see some systems pop up "out of the blue" so to speak once we get closer to said pattern and we see how each short wave responds.

For now... let's watch the 9-11th period and again the 11-14th period as the NAO block retrogrades and the -EPO reloads. What state the PNA is in by that time, will tell us if we get hit as we approach mid month, or if it's the East Coast.

Les even before that is early next week and how far south does the cold front go before stalling. Last few runs has been further south and that tells me that colder air is getting more involved with these system each and every week. If we don't get the big rains early next week then maybe just maybe we have a little winter weather mixed in with system closer to us. These highs coming in are around 1035 so nothing really strong but not weak either and of course timing is so key.

I think that is a low chance of occurring this far out in time, but it's something to keep one eye open on for sure. ILN has trended our temps down in the 5-7 day period. 40s instead of 50s like we saw yesterday. It's a start in the right direction! Check out this loop of the Western Pacific satellite. You can see big systems coming off of Asia. Should keep us active.

https://www.eldoradoweather.com/satelli ... llite.html

[tpweather]

I agree Les and though the pna is negative it is trying to go towards neutral which to me is a great place for us with everything else involved. Another great thing is snow is going to be accumulating north of us over the next week to 10 days and this is another important part of the puzzle.And that alone does not bring us snow but it can bring down some cold and then we worry more about ice which I will take but snow is much better

Tim, we have both said that this is going to require some patience, and it is! So far though... for the last week or two that we've been talking about it, amazingly enough, the pattern appears to be coming together very nicely. Can't say much more then that. I have a feeling that we will see some systems pop up "out of the blue" so to speak once we get closer to said pattern and we see how each short wave responds.

For now... let's watch the 9-11th period and again the 11-14th period as the NAO block retrogrades and the -EPO reloads. What state the PNA is in by that time, will tell us if we get hit as we approach mid month, or if it's the East Coast.

Les even before that is early next week and how far south does the cold front go before stalling. Last few runs has been further south and that tells me that colder air is getting more involved with these system each and every week. If we don't get the big rains early next week then maybe just maybe we have a little winter weather mixed in with system closer to us. These highs coming in are around 1035 so nothing really strong but not weak either and of course timing is so key.

I think that is a low chance of occurring this far out in time, but it's something to keep one eye open on for sure. ILN has trended our temps down in the 5-7 day period. 40s instead of 50s like we saw yesterday. It's a start in the right direction! Check out this loop of the Western Pacific satellite. You can see big systems coming off of Asia. Should keep us active.

https://www.eldoradoweather.com/satelli ... llite.html

Les I talked about that last week how the storms coming out of Asia was a good sign for us in terms of getting more active weather. Look to the east for the sunrise and look far to the west for possible weather events down the road.

[tron777]

That's a great saying Tim! Makes a lot of sense too.

[Bgoney]

Can't help but lick your chops with what the EU has on the table. We just have to wait our turn. The west and great plains will be feasting for the foreseeable future

Screenshot_20221130-162514_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

The -NAO is absolutely being modeled as being in record territory for December. Some models have shown a 1060 or 1062 MB High over Greenland. Wow! Today's 12Z EPS has the high around 1050 MB and the EPO high in the 1030s MB. Not bad at all esp if those ridges were to connect.

[Bgoney]

First 7-10 days the SE ridge will be flexing its muscle

floop-ecmwf_full-2022113012.500h_anom.conus.gif

floop-ecmwf_full-2022113012.sfct.conus.gif

[tron777]

December Pattern at 500 MB in 2010:

Dec 2010.gif

February Pattern at 500 MB in 2010:

Feb 2010.gif

Anyone see any similarities to these maps and the one Bgoney posted from today's Euro?

[Bgoney]

Here's what the EU has for the Next 6 days in its pipeline for snow and QPF across the country. Atm the big rains are to our south .

floop-ecmwf_full-2022113012.sn10_acc.conus.gif

qpf_acc.conus.png

[tron777]

18Z GFS kind of looks like the 12Z Canadian for next week. The heavy rains are over TN and by Tues night into Wed, this model has some light snow for our I-70 folks.

[tron777]

Hey Tim... maybe you are on to something here with it being a tad colder next week? I won't forecast snow for any location yet on our forum, but I am starting to get interested here should we see some more trends like this.

[tpweather]

Can't help but lick your chops with what the EU has on the table. We just have to wait our turn. The west and great plains will be feasting for the foreseeable future

Screenshot_20221130-162514_Chrome.jpg

This is what you want to have a decent period of winter weather in our area. Not a fan of the 3-5 days of snow and cold and then back to 44 and rain. Getting the folks with a decent snow pack to our north and west is always helpful especially in December as we head into the time of year with the shortest amount of daylight. Patience is the word and sure over the next ten days we can see a little winter weather involved here but nothing imo to talk about.

[tron777]

Current snow depth: Let's check it in a week or so.

SnowCoverMap.jpg

[tpweather]

Current snow depth: Let's check it in a week or so.


SnowCoverMap.jpg

Les I believe you will about the northern 1/3 of the country covered by then with at least a small layer of snow. Always going to be those areas that get missed at first but overtime they should fill in. Good thing is almost all of Canada is covered in snow and yes that is helping in keeping the cold going.

[tron777]

18Z GFS Ensemble continuing to show a wonderful pattern like the EPS. This is a snap shot of 12/12... again not next week but the week after continues to look extremely interesting for the Eastern US.

image.png.0e20a525aee10930e6c0f03e7c5dcde9.png

[tron777]

Good morning all! Happy First Day of December and Metrological Winter! It feels like Dec today with temps in the 20 to 25 degree range this morning across the region. 35 to 40 should take care of most highs today. A warm front will boost us back towards 50 or so tomorrow with rain moving in Fri night ending Sat morning. We will cool down again as temps drop Sat with a dry but chilly Sunday expected. Rain is likely again next week esp Monday and Tues but the heavier rains still appear top stay south of us so if the cold air can catch up in time, some of you may see the rain end as some snow Tues night. I favor I-70 folks at this time.

[tron777]

Looking ahead... CMC and Euro both are trying to cook up a little wintry action either Friday of next week or next weekend. GFS isn't quite sure how to handle the energy so it's outcomes have not been as consistent. The GEFS to me looks more like what the CMC and Euro are trying to sell. This kick starts our wintry pattern by the 10th or so. This is the first legit possibility we have for wintry weather in our new month. Let's keep that one eye open look on it for now.

[tpweather]

Looking ahead... CMC and Euro both are trying to cook up a little wintry action either Friday of next week or next weekend. GFS isn't quite sure how to handle the energy so it's outcomes have not been as consistent. The GEFS to me looks more like what the CMC and Euro are trying to sell. This kick starts our wintry pattern by the 10th or so. This is the first legit possibility we have for wintry weather in our new month. Let's keep that one eye open look on it for now.

My guess Les is we will see several different outcomes with model output over the next several days. Again to early to see how the pattern unfolds and where the energy may be located by then. We have talked about the NAO going very negative but the AO is also very negative as well. If we can get the pna to just hit neutral or slightly positive then that should help us in terms of winter weather. We have seen the pattern set up for weeks which is unusual in terms of the pattern setting up that way weeks and weeks ahead to time. Models have been rather close in their output over the past several weeks but my guess is the wild swing of models is ready to start and that is when must looked hard of why a model may have changes overnight and if so does it have merit.