November 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Low of 15 here, 16 at CVG this morning! Coldest morning of the season so far IMBY. Models continue to struggle with the evolving pattern from Thanksgiving and beyond. Still sticking to the game plan that Tim and I have laid out. I see no reason to change anything until we get closer. Wait until the model chaos gets settled. I also still like rain at some point in the afternoon on Thanksgiving, changing to snow sometime on Black Friday with snow showers lingering into Saturday. I am still maintaining that forecast from several days ago.

[tron777]

12Z GFS was a step closer to a nice storm! An all rain event since we don't get the phase in time, but if it occur about 12 hours faster, we'd have a decent backside snow to talk about.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS was a step closer to a nice storm! An all rain event since we don't get the phase in time, but if it occur about 12 hours faster, we'd have a decent backside snow to talk about.

Les the model is getting closer and this thing explodes to our east plus much more in the way of precip that models have touting less and less. Probably the one thing is the amount of colder air to the north before the storm as its not quite the cold we have at the moment. We need to watch for the upper system as well and we know models are terrible at this especially when we get a system that gets rather strong.

[tron777]

12Z Canadian is still too progressive for my taste with its solution today.

[tron777]

12Z GFS was a step closer to a nice storm! An all rain event since we don't get the phase in time, but if it occur about 12 hours faster, we'd have a decent backside snow to talk about.

Les the model is getting closer and this thing explodes to our east plus much more in the way of precip that models have touting less and less. Probably the one thing is the amount of colder air to the north before the storm as its not quite the cold we have at the moment. We need to watch for the upper system as well and we know models are terrible at this especially when we get a system that gets rather strong.

We're going to need some kind of a phase here or the correct deepening and track of the upper low for the storm to manufacturer it's own cold air so to speak. We need one or the other to see some snow on the back side.

[tpweather]

Les if the gfs is correct and at least there is something that we both thought would happen if the latest is anywhere correct. I love seeing the amount of moisture it shows and I kept wondering why so light on the precip totals as I was seeing quite a bit injected into this system. If the northern system gets phased in and the storm explodes as the gfs shows there will be more back end snows than the model is showing at the moment. Matter of fact this could up being a really nice snow event for the app mountains along with eastern Kentucky and Ohio. Seen this happen to many times where models are just not cold enough for the moisture to the west of the low. So I still like are call and it may be a tad slower but that is because the storm is getting stronger as it heads this way and not weaker. Rain arriving late Thanksgiving or overnight and then a switch to snow late Friday into Saturday. At this time probably snow showers but need to watch areas to our east.

[tron777]

Les if the gfs is correct and at least there is something that we both thought would happen if the latest is anywhere correct. I love seeing the amount of moisture it shows and I kept wondering why so light on the precip totals as I was seeing quite a bit injected into this system. If the northern system gets phased in and the storm explodes as the gfs shows there will be more back end snows than the model is showing at the moment. Matter of fact this could up being a really nice snow event for the app mountains along with eastern Kentucky and Ohio. Seen this happen to many times where models are just not cold enough for the moisture to the west of the low. So I still like are call and it may be a tad slower but that is because the storm is getting stronger as it heads this way and not weaker. Rain arriving late Thanksgiving or overnight and then a switch to snow late Friday into Saturday. At this time probably snow showers but need to watch areas to our east.

The precip values have been light due to the progressive pattern and the system not slowing down. If the call is right, precip should go up with a slower and stronger storm.

[tpweather]

Les if the gfs is correct and at least there is something that we both thought would happen if the latest is anywhere correct. I love seeing the amount of moisture it shows and I kept wondering why so light on the precip totals as I was seeing quite a bit injected into this system. If the northern system gets phased in and the storm explodes as the gfs shows there will be more back end snows than the model is showing at the moment. Matter of fact this could up being a really nice snow event for the app mountains along with eastern Kentucky and Ohio. Seen this happen to many times where models are just not cold enough for the moisture to the west of the low. So I still like are call and it may be a tad slower but that is because the storm is getting stronger as it heads this way and not weaker. Rain arriving late Thanksgiving or overnight and then a switch to snow late Friday into Saturday. At this time probably snow showers but need to watch areas to our east.

The precip values have been light due to the progressive pattern and the system not slowing down. If the call is right, precip should go up with a slower and stronger storm.

I agree plus the southern system earlier in week moves away quicker and this gave more time for the western GOM to reload even though you can sneeze down there and get a shower. That area has not been touched much lately and when I see that most of time models miss out on this and not sure why but I love precip totals. After next weekend I still expect a milder period even though the cmc and euro have other ideals but at least the gfs is trying to see my pattern. Will that pattern be correct and of course only time will tell but I see no reason to change and just like the system later this week there was never a reason to change as models were just in a funk and if you look at it closely the CMC may end up be best overall because it had less changes run to run and that should count as something when grading models. Of course as we get closer which model does better is important as well and we know the CMC tends to have problems 48 hours out for some reason.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS looks to me that it went back to the progressive idea again. UKMET takes a slow moving southern low thru TN with a cold rain possible for us on the north side. No cold air to work with for snow.

[tpweather]

12Z GEFS looks to me that it went back to the progressive idea again. UKMET takes a slow moving southern low thru TN with a cold rain possible for us on the north side. No cold air to work with for snow.

If the lows stays weaker then yes I can see less snow but if and of course a big if the storm gets as strong as the gfs shows there will be much more in the way of snow than the models show.

[tpweather]

Okay we have the Euro in and we sort of end up with a similar storm by Friday but the Euro has the northern low stronger and the go to storm where the GFS has the southern storm as the stronger storm. At least both are showing a pretty strong storm so Les we have this correct I believe and just need to see which low takes over. IMO either way a rain to snow outcome here and the app mountains watch out.

[tpweather]

1pm at CVG is temp at 30 and dew point 0. That is a nice arctic air mass.

[tpweather]

Looks like we have the normal battle late this week between the gfs and euro. The cmc is more in line with the euro and the uket is closer to the gfs. One other note and Barrow,Alaska tied a record high yesterday of 28 degrees. Been very mild up there and this makes sense as much of Siberia has been mild as well.

[tron777]

Okay we have the Euro in and we sort of end up with a similar storm by Friday but the Euro has the northern low stronger and the go to storm where the GFS has the southern storm as the stronger storm. At least both are showing a pretty strong storm so Les we have this correct I believe and just need to see which low takes over. IMO either way a rain to snow outcome here and the app mountains watch out.

I think our call looks really good Tim. Just need to iron out the details this week.

[tron777]

80" at Orchard Park as of 6:47am this morning!

[MVWxObserver]

80" at Orchard Park as of 6:47am this morning!

Clearing roads and streets e.g. etc in those regions will be wild!

[tron777]

From Scotty D:

Fun weather fact: the dewpoint has dropped below 0° at the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport; in simple terms, the air over the Queen City is very,very dry. This is the first sub-zero dewpoint since January 26 (298 days ago) and the first sub-zero dewpoint in November since November 23, 2008 (5,110 days ago).
Here are recent dewpoint trends for #Cincinnati...

CincyDews.jpg

[tron777]

Oh hey Tim... Friday, Nov. 18, was the last sunset for Utqiagvik, Alaska. (Barrow) They will not see the sun rise again until January 23, 2023. That's 63 days from now.

[airwolf76]

was a very cold day yesterday for November. only 31 degrees with 20 mph NW winds. will be happy to see a warming trend coming this week to get things done outside. i dont want it to feel like January in November I have plans and i want to enjoy normal fall conditions for a bit. long range ( rest of Nov) is not showing much below avg temps or snow so that is good.

[Bgoney]

Temps on the rise overnight after a low of 20 here, currently at 24. Can put November in the thirdy/thirdy/thirdy club. A third much above, much below and the last third near normal as far as temps go . Been a relatively easy month to forecast for temps , Unfortunately another below normal month in the QPF department. For the holiday weekend system, not ready to buy in to the higher amounts of qpf just yet

[tron777]

20 here this morning. Will look at the models in a bit and post some more later this morning.

[tpweather]

Oh hey Tim... Friday, Nov. 18, was the last sunset for Utqiagvik, Alaska. (Barrow) They will not see the sun rise again until January 23, 2023. That's 63 days from now.

Les you know I love when this happens and I forgot all about that when I was looking at the weather up there yesterday. Need to look at the models this morning after I get my second cup of coffee. Hopefully they have come to some agreement on the late week system

[tron777]

GFS and CMC bring a front in on Thanksgiving with the northern jet and not much occurs. The southern piece comes out later and drenches the area on Sunday. I like the Euro's solution bringing in a slow moving upper low with rain late Thanksgiving into Black Friday then changing to mixed precip / snow lingering into Sat. That has been the call for about 8 days now so I am sticking with it.

[tpweather]

GFS and CMC bring a front in on Thanksgiving with the northern jet and not much occurs. The southern piece comes out later and drenches the area on Sunday. I like the Euro's solution bringing in a slow moving upper low with rain late Thanksgiving into Black Friday then changing to mixed precip / snow lingering into Sat. That has been the call for about 8 days now so I am sticking with it.

I agree 100p/c Les. The key player and I mentioned sometime over the past several days is the ridging in the western states. The gfs and cmc have the ridge but is flatter and the trough is not as deep in the eastern half of the USA. The Euro has that ridge much more north to south and heads well into western Canada and this helps develop a much deeper trough in the eastern half of the USA and we get the two pieces of energy to join and further west.

[tron777]

GFS and CMC bring a front in on Thanksgiving with the northern jet and not much occurs. The southern piece comes out later and drenches the area on Sunday. I like the Euro's solution bringing in a slow moving upper low with rain late Thanksgiving into Black Friday then changing to mixed precip / snow lingering into Sat. That has been the call for about 8 days now so I am sticking with it.

I agree 100p/c Les. The key player and I mentioned sometime over the past several days is the ridging in the western states. The gfs and cmc have the ridge but is flatter and the trough is not as deep in the eastern half of the USA. The Euro has that ridge much more north to south and heads well into western Canada and this helps develop a much deeper trough in the eastern half of the USA and we get the two pieces of energy to join and further west.

PNA looks to be neutral I'd say before going negative to end Nov and begin Dec (this is per the PNA forecast on CPC's website) So we cannot yet rule out both solutions and I'm also banking on the -NAO more then anything to slow the pattern down for this system again. Again, after this system it rises towards neutral as well.