November 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good Morning and welcome to winter the next 5 days as we continue to get colder and now it looks like Sunday may be the coldest day with temps lucky to hit 30 degrees. Btw snow flurries and a snow shower or two is possible as we get these reinforcements of cold air. Next week we warm up early in the week and get to near normal. Then we have the problem with the models on trying to figure out if and when a storm will show up. The Euro is staying with the storm on Friday while the GFS has switched to a northern system that brings in rain on Thanksgiving. Yes we get a cold shot behind the system but is this the pattern that takes us to another cold period or will we warm up in early December. Many conflicts in the models and that is why we are seeing different outcomes between forecasters. At this point I am sticking to a warmer pattern the first two weeks and again that means more days of above normal than below normal. Not going to be a heat wave like last December but expecting temps overall during the first two weeks to average slightly above normal. At the moment the lower latitudes are getting some cold air like much of the USA. This is a period where the arctic regions remain cold of course but usually temper the cold. Once we get into next week I expect the polar regions to really get cold but will the coldest in regards to normal be in Siberia or in Northern Canada. So far this autumn that has been mainly in Northern Canada. Will that change this time or is this a trend that we hope continues all winter long.

[Bgoney]

Might be a wrench being thrown into the MJO equation. TC development likely in what looks like to me , phase 4 region

abpwsair.jpg

[tron777]

Good morning! No changes from me right now. Still in a wait and see mode. I will say that the MJO as of 11/14 is in the Circle still but getting closer to Phase 4. I'd venture to say not that it could re-emerge in Phase 4 or 5. I didn't see any guidance bringing it out in 4, just 5 or 6. So we'll see what happens there over the next few days. I'm waiting on the MJO before I declare. The only 100% confident thing I can say is winter right now, we warm up next week. Probably will see some rain on Thanksgiving. Then do we cool down and warm up again for a week or two? Or do we flip back to cold again? That is the question Tim has answered, but I am still struggling with.

EDIT: Ahhh... Good timing with your post Bgoney! Glad I am in wait and see mode esp due to what you posted.

[tpweather]

Good morning! No changes from me right now. Still in a wait and see mode. I will say that the MJO as of 11/14 is in the Circle still but getting closer to Phase 4. I'd venture to say not that it could re-emerge in Phase 4 or 5. I didn't see any guidance bringing it out in 4, just 5 or 6. So we'll see what happens there over the next few days. I'm waiting on the MJO before I declare. The only 100% confident thing I can say is winter right now, we warm up next week. Probably will see some rain on Thanksgiving. Then do we cool down and warm up again for a week or two? Or do we flip back to cold again? That is the question Tim has answered, but I am still struggling with.

EDIT: Ahhh... Good timing with your post Bgoney! Glad I am in wait and see mode esp due to what you posted.

Good Morning Les and Bgoney, I was worried somewhat about the mjo entering phase 4 and that is sort of why I am going with a milder period in the first two weeks of Dec. Again that was not the only reason as I believe the AO will turn positive as well during that time. Again we know these pattern changes usually thrown us a wrench or two and never easy giving long term forecasts. I will stick with my current forecast until I see that is not panning out. Les concerning guidance on the mjo. I watch that but to me I thought anywhere from phase 4-6 could happen and though I was leaning more on 5 I thought it had a better shot at 4 than 6. Like always I work up a forecast first and then start to look at different models. I will always be pattern first and models as a guidance. Sometimes the models and I agree which gives you more confidence but sometimes we differ and you feel less confident in my forecasts. Tons of homework needed and I hate homework unless its dealing with the weather.

[tpweather]

I had to look at the current mjo after what Bgoney posted and as of the 14th we are nearing phase 4 and that should happen by the 17th at the latest. So yes it looks like phase 4 will happen after all. Does it take its sweet time to work around to phase 7 which is a much better phase in terms of winter weather for us or does it move rather fast. I am going with the slower time period though I believe it will continue its path to phase 7 and hopefully into 8 and 1 as we get into mid-December.

[tron777]

Phase 4 is a very mild pattern basically from coast to coast with a +AO +NAO combination and a +EPO as well. Cold is all bottled up north with a zonal mild pacific flow. This is pretty much the EPS, minus it has a -PNA and not a positive one, and would also match your milder thoughts perfectly as well Tim for late Nov and early Dec.

nina_4_dic_mid.png

[tron777]

To piggy back on Bgoney's post, here is a wide view of the Western Pacific. Def looking busy! We'll have to see how this impacts the jet down the road. Do these systems get strong typhons and run into land? Just weak TS's? Any recurving strong typhons? A lot of unknowns at this time.

kAv6C5i.png

[tpweather]

To piggy back on Bgoney's post, here is a wide view of the Western Pacific. Def looking busy! We'll have to see how this impacts the jet down the road. Do these systems get strong typhons and run into land? Just weak TS's? Any recurving strong typhons? A lot of unknowns at this time.


kAv6C5i.png

Great Post Les and like you mentioned plenty of unknowns. The water north of Australia up to east of China is pretty warm so my guess getting a typhoon is possible but since we have several areas of disturbed weather that can deter stronger typhoons because energy is displaced overall. The next week or so should help solve that piece of the puzzle but as always we tend to mess with those 1000 piece puzzles and that will make your head spin.

[dce]

I had to look at the current mjo after what Bgoney posted and as of the 14th we are nearing phase 4 and that should happen by the 17th at the latest. So yes it looks like phase 4 will happen after all. Does it take its sweet time to work around to phase 7 which is a much better phase in terms of winter weather for us or does it move rather fast. I am going with the slower time period though I believe it will continue its path to phase 7 and hopefully into 8 and 1 as we get into mid-December.

As per some of the previous posts, phase 6 can be favorable in December when we have a negative enso. I'm not sure how accurate the research is about phase 6, but my previous map concerning phase 6 would be favorable if it is indeed true.

[tpweather]

Starting to see some snow showers in western Indiana so this is a good sign imo for later this afternoon. Again not a snowstorm but once in awhile you can get a nice snow shower like you would see a nice afternoon thundershower in the summer where if you are lucky you have a 20-30 minute period where the precip is falling rather hard. Very much a now cast but early returns out west gives me hope we see a few nearby plus with the winds mainly in a westerly manner getting snow in Terra Haute would be perfect for our area.

[Bgoney]

Just had a nice 15 minute graupel shower

[tpweather]

Just had a nice 15 minute graupel shower

I had one of those in the shower and wow they hurt

[tpweather]

Just had a nice 15 minute graupel shower

That is a key today as certain layers of the atmosphere are a little warm. Usually when you get a heavier shower then it usually turns to all snow.

[tpweather]

Just had a nice 15 minute graupel shower

Radar looks nice in my area but only getting those tiny flakes of snow

[tpweather]

La Nina and we have seen this bluff before but it does look like the waters are starting to warm near South America. Most likely this will continue and may get back to neutral by mid-winter and then after that I have no ideal.

[Bgoney]

Just had a nice 15 minute graupel shower

I had one of those in the shower and wow they hurt

Shrinkage

[tron777]

Been seeing some mixed rain, graupel, and snow showers here. P-type varies due to precip intensity. The heavier the shower, the better chance of a snow flake making it to the ground. Down to 33 here, CVG.

EDIT: A tiny bit of accum has occurred on car tops only.

[tpweather]

If we can get the correct set up later next week the western GOM which has mainly been untouched for months even during the Hurricane season should supply us with tons of moisture. Though we are in a mini drought a few decent systems and we will be back to normal. Getting 1 inch of rainfall this time of year is like getting 3 inches in mid-summer. A little rain goes a lot further and the only other problem is will the ground get sort of frozen over the next 5 days and probably yes but we should have enough warming before we get some decent rains.

[tpweather]

Just had a nice 15 minute graupel shower

I had one of those in the shower and wow they hurt

ShrinkageII WAS IN THE POOL!!!

[tron777]

A better precip type word for today is white rain!

[tpweather]

Nice graupel and snow shower at the moment and with the somewhat foggy conditions visibility is rather low at the moment and that can happen anytime with these showers of either snow or whatever decides to fall

[tron777]

12Z GFS has rain for Thanksgiving and Black Friday ending as some snow Fri night. A large / slow moving storm system with a pretty good much needed soaking! Heaviest rains fall NW of the Cincy Metro per the usual trends.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS has rain for Thanksgiving and Black Friday ending as some snow Fri night. A large / slow moving storm system with a pretty good much needed soaking! Heaviest rains fall NW of the Cincy Metro per the usual trends.

Les the earlier gfs had the northern system taking over but this run really is close to how I see it playing out. Nice cold shot moves in but I still believe for a short time and we warm up nicely. The models will go back and forth probably until this weekend but this latest run to me looks correct and yes there will be some details that change but If I could paint a picture of how that system turns out the latest gfs would be rather close. This would probably give us a nice inch or so of rainfall and maybe another inch of snow as well. Many times when the cold digs into the central USA we would see another system a few days later that would bring some winter weather to us. This time though the coldest air digs further east so just expecting enough cold air to enter the system late and then stick around for the weekend before we warm up

[MVWxObserver]

A better precip type word for today is white rain!

[winterstormjoe]

A better precip type word for today is white rain!

I'll need a case of that white rain to spray on my front lawn to give that white Christmas look! Ha ha LOL!