November 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Beware of the Cincy/Dayton split on some of the modeling for tomorrow's snow. As we all know, this can definitely be real.

Model placement certainly differs. CMC is south mainly in KY. But you have others that peg us nicely. As usual, always a wait and see game.

A very weak wave and will move fast but also once the wave moves away we get a northwest wind that can produce some snow showers off the lakes. Again we will be on the southwest coverage but would not be surprised to see a snow shower or two Sunday morning and the further north and east you live the better shot of that happening.

[tpweather]

Raining cats and dogs at the moment. Very moist air from the tropics can add up those rain totals quickly.

[tron777]

[young pup]

Finally went out to check the gauge. half an inch here and the rain is starting to pick up a little. Hoping for another half inch to really settle the dust.

[dce]

Beware of the Cincy/Dayton split on some of the modeling for tomorrow's snow. As we all know, this can definitely be real.

Model placement certainly differs. CMC is south mainly in KY. But you have others that peg us nicely. As usual, always a wait and see game.

Always is with snow. We never know which model is right until after the event occurs.

[tron777]

0.74" as of 10am at CVG so a nice soaking for 3/4's of our coverage area! Then we'll see who sees some white in the morning.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has the low a little too far NW for Tuesday and its mainly a chilly rain with snow in the extreme NW portion of the OV.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS has the low a little too far NW for Tuesday and its mainly a chilly rain with snow in the extreme NW portion of the OV.

Yes and a pattern that we see quite often in the winter. We tend to do better snow wise with the second system as colder air dives behind the first system and we get a second storm to form somewhere in the south where the cold front slows down. So I can see the first system start out with a mix bag then switch to all rain before ending as some light snow or flurries. Then Wednesday is cold and mid winter like with snow flurries and maybe a few snow showers. Then we wait for the next piece of energy to move in from the southwest which imo will give us a better shot of snow. Of course we are talking mid-Nov but the current pattern is more like mid-Dec.

[tron777]

I'm seeing more and more GEFS members locking in on Tuesday. most of the members have the snow band over us or NW of us like the OP GFS. Will we see the foreign models begin to trend stronger with this system? We shall see! Def a December in November for the pattern. Absolutely agree, Tim!

12Z GEFS - Precip type for Tues:

GEFSPType.png

[tron777]

Front is starting to move in so the steadier rains will be shutting down from west to east as the day wears on. Drizzle / mist will linger even after the main rain shield has departed. Temps will be steady if not fall later today.

[young pup]

Up to 9 tenths of an inch. The grass might even green up some. We never had a true killing frost imo so I wouldn't be surprised if it even grows some.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and notice wind chill warning for northeast Montana. Expecting wind chill temps nearing -35. This tells me this cold means business. Many times we see these low wind chills in the rockies and northern plains in November but usually the cold air stays in that area. This time the cold is making its way south and east.

[tron777]

0.89" here as of this post... love it!

[tron777]

For tomorrow... the 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro probably bring in the most QPF for us to work with, around 0.15 to 0.25" range. Temps will be above freezing and the ground is warm. If the rate of snow is heavy enough, you can see a covering up to 1" on isolated spots. Some folks will see 1/4 to 1/2" range. Others no accum at all. Really, it's an event where we can potentially register on the board to begin our season as well as crown a winner in part 1 of the contest, Not bad for it only being 11/12 tomorrow and we just had 70s a couple of days ago. What an abrupt change coming in our weather... wow!

[tron777]

I saw the 12Z CMC took a step towards the GFS for Tues, let's see if the Euro does the same. So far, the southern energy is a bit stronger and further north then 0Z run which is good.

[tron777]

The Euro still just doesn't quite have the NS interaction with the STJ wave that we need. But at the same time, there's something there and it's not a cold and dry pattern that this model was once showing. So maybe the GFS is right about a system for Tues? We'll see... def worth keeping one eye open for sure.

[tron777]

0.87" at CVG of 1pm. 0.83" Boone Co mesonet and at last check, I had 0.89". Awesome soaking! Not a drought buster but a nice drought denter. Curious to see folks like JP, Bgoney, and anyone else in our Eastern counties did where the heavier rains were supposed to have fallen once all is said and done.

[tpweather]

The Euro still just doesn't quite have the NS interaction with the STJ wave that we need. But at the same time, there's something there and it's not a cold and dry pattern that this model was once showing. So maybe the GFS is right about a system for Tues? We'll see... def worth keeping one eye open for sure.

Good to know Les. Since I have not looked at models this week until last night its good to know the Euro is trending in that direction. I love what the models are showing and yes I believe a second system will show up more and more on the models for next weekend. Models seem to always have problems with the second system and this has been the case since I started looking at models over 20 years ago.

[tron777]

The Euro still just doesn't quite have the NS interaction with the STJ wave that we need. But at the same time, there's something there and it's not a cold and dry pattern that this model was once showing. So maybe the GFS is right about a system for Tues? We'll see... def worth keeping one eye open for sure.

Good to know Les. Since I have not looked at models this week until last night its good to know the Euro is trending in that direction. I love what the models are showing and yes I believe a second system will show up more and more on the models for next weekend. Models seem to always have problems with the second system and this has been the case since I started looking at models over 20 years ago.

Yeah.... attm, rain and snow both are in play Tues depending on how much phasing we see and the time of day this moves in. Then, Friday is out and we'll see how the weekend evolves, which is now also looking interesting too. I think we've got 3 systems to track that can produce some snow for us. Tomorrow of course, then Tues and again next weekend. And we're only approaching mid Nov. This is great! What a nice change from the last few years. Now can we keep it going in December? That's the real question and will be fun to track in the weeks ahead.

[tron777]

My forecast would kind of go something like this for the next 7-10 days:

Today - Rain ends from west to east, lingering drizzle until the front passes later. Temps dropping later on as well thru the 50s and into the 30s by morning.

Sat - Snow and rain depending on precip rate. Localized grassy accum up to 1" possible, highs in the 30s.

Sun and Mon are dry but chilly with highs in the U30s to L40s across the region, lows in the 20s.
Tues - Snow or rain - Temps in the 30s.
Wed - Cold with flurries, Highs low to mid 30s.
Thurs and Fri are dry with temps in the 40s, lows in the 20s.

Sometime next weekend the next system arrives in the form of rain and snow with temps in the 30s or 40s, lows in the 20s and 30s.

[cloudy72]

Rainfall total of 0.84" here.

[tpweather]

My forecast would kind of go something like this for the next 7-10 days:

Today - Rain ends from west to east, lingering drizzle until the front passes later. Temps dropping later on as well thru the 50s and into the 30s by morning.

Sat - Snow and rain depending on precip rate. Localized grassy accum up to 1" possible, highs in the 30s.

Sun and Mon are dry but chilly with highs in the U30s to L40s across the region, lows in the 20s.
Tues - Snow or rain - Temps in the 30s.
Wed - Cold with flurries, Highs low to mid 30s.
Thurs and Fri are dry with temps in the 40s, lows in the 20s.

Sometime next weekend the next system arrives in the form of rain and snow with temps in the 30s or 40s, lows in the 20s and 30s.

Forecast looks very good Les. Also we saw the 1st 10 days of November was the 3rd warmest since records have been recorded. I would not be surprised if the 2nd 10 days we get into the top 3 of coldest mid-Nov days. So many days with temps at least 15 degrees below normal and hard not to believe this could happen.

[tron777]

My forecast would kind of go something like this for the next 7-10 days:

Today - Rain ends from west to east, lingering drizzle until the front passes later. Temps dropping later on as well thru the 50s and into the 30s by morning.

Sat - Snow and rain depending on precip rate. Localized grassy accum up to 1" possible, highs in the 30s.

Sun and Mon are dry but chilly with highs in the U30s to L40s across the region, lows in the 20s.
Tues - Snow or rain - Temps in the 30s.
Wed - Cold with flurries, Highs low to mid 30s.
Thurs and Fri are dry with temps in the 40s, lows in the 20s.

Sometime next weekend the next system arrives in the form of rain and snow with temps in the 30s or 40s, lows in the 20s and 30s.

Forecast looks very good Les. Also we saw the 1st 10 days of November was the 3rd warmest since records have been recorded. I would not be surprised if the 2nd 10 days we get into the top 3 of coldest mid-Nov days. So many days with temps at least 15 degrees below normal and hard not to believe this could happen.

Completely agree... a tale of 2 different seasons occurring is exactly what we will be seeing this November. It's good for us weather geeks since things have been so boring lately. I'm not bored anymore with a forecast such as this!

[Bgoney]

0.87" at CVG of 1pm. 0.83" Boone Co mesonet and at last check, I had 0.89". Awesome soaking! Not a drought buster but a nice drought denter. Curious to see folks like JP, Bgoney, and anyone else in our Eastern counties did where the heavier rains were supposed to have fallen once all is said and done.

1.60" sir, my bladders(water ,lol) are full , now I need to empty them before the colder temps move in

[tron777]

0.87" at CVG of 1pm. 0.83" Boone Co mesonet and at last check, I had 0.89". Awesome soaking! Not a drought buster but a nice drought denter. Curious to see folks like JP, Bgoney, and anyone else in our Eastern counties did where the heavier rains were supposed to have fallen once all is said and done.

1.60" sir, my bladders(water ,lol) are full , now I need to empty them before the colder temps move in

Beautiful!!!