November 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

66 / 57 here so the dews have come up pretty nicely. Showers should not totally fall apart so most folks should get something. I still like the 1/2" West call, 0.25" for me, Tim, CVG, etc. and lesser amounts naturally as one heads East. 0.10" for our far eastern counties.

[tron777]

In addition to the above, a ribbon of higher moisture is incoming from the West with PWATS in the 1.1 to 1.3" range which is decent for the time of year.

[tpweather]

66 / 57 here so the dews have come up pretty nicely. Showers should not totally fall apart so most folks should get something. I still like the 1/2" West call, 0.25" for me, Tim, CVG, etc. and lesser amounts naturally as one heads East. 0.10" for our far eastern counties.

Good Morning Les and agree 100p/c. The cold out west and Alaska along with western and northern Canada is impressive. Of course for us locally still a step down process but later next week you can see temps in the northern plains that may be close to 0 at night. I see the mjo is progressing through phase 7 and lets see what happens when it hits phase 8. Does it go back to the COD or will it continue a little deeper into phase 8

[tron777]

From the boys as of 7am this morning:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Keeping an eye on leading edge of showers pushing through
Indiana, and seeing lightning activity finally starting to wane.
Still banking on the reduction in instability and less favorable
upper level conditions for thunderstorm activity through the
day today across the area, especially with convection pushing
into an area with less favorable surface and boundary layer
conditions. While area is now in marginal thunder per SPC, still
messaging the potential for late afternoon/evening enhanced
wind gusts with a fine line of showers coming in immediately
before the frontal boundary.

[tpweather]

In addition to the above, a ribbon of higher moisture is incoming from the West with PWATS in the 1.1 to 1.3" range which is decent for the time of year.

Yes it is Les. The winds are really keeping the local area from getting higher rainfall. The cloud tops just get ripped apart plus the quick movement makes it almost impossible to get heavier rainfall over a period of time

[tron777]

66 / 57 here so the dews have come up pretty nicely. Showers should not totally fall apart so most folks should get something. I still like the 1/2" West call, 0.25" for me, Tim, CVG, etc. and lesser amounts naturally as one heads East. 0.10" for our far eastern counties.

Good Morning Les and agree 100p/c. The cold out west and Alaska along with western and northern Canada is impressive. Of course for us locally still a step down process but later next week you can see temps in the northern plains that may be close to 0 at night. I see the mjo is progressing through phase 7 and lets see what happens when it hits phase 8. Does it go back to the COD or will it continue a little deeper into phase 8

It's making a run at Phase 8 Tim as of 11/3. We'll see. Would love to see it in 8 before it dies. That would put us squarely in the battle zone of the warm and cold air and if the phasing is right with a split jet flow, look out! Sometimes, it'll favor west of us, here, East Coast etc. It's going to depend on orientation and shape of the +PNA assuming it comes. It may stay negative. You can have a -EPO / -NAO and still have a -PNA as well. I like that combo. It is not a cold and dry pattern. It is a stormy one and if the chips fall right, it can be a snowy one as well.

[tron777]

In addition to the above, a ribbon of higher moisture is incoming from the West with PWATS in the 1.1 to 1.3" range which is decent for the time of year.

Yes it is Les. The winds are really keeping the local area from getting higher rainfall. The cloud tops just get ripped apart plus the quick movement makes it almost impossible to get heavier rainfall over a period of time

Which is good when I'm trying to cook outside lol I can handle the wind. Heavy rain is a challenge.

[tron777]

One word of caution. Some models have the MJO getting into 8, dying, then coming back out of the COD into phase 6 by early December. I don't like seeing that. Coming back out in 7 wouldn't bother me as much so something to watch that could delay the colder flip (a more sustainable one) a bit.

[tpweather]

One word of caution. Some models have the MJO getting into 8, dying, then coming back out of the COD into phase 6 by early December. I don't like seeing that. Coming back out in 7 wouldn't bother me as much so something to watch that could delay the colder flip (a more sustainable one) a bit.

Also how strong is the mjo and will it be the driving factor and something we just don't no at this point. I still believe the key to this winter is the blocking in Greenland and also Scand area.

[tron777]

One word of caution. Some models have the MJO getting into 8, dying, then coming back out of the COD into phase 6 by early December. I don't like seeing that. Coming back out in 7 wouldn't bother me as much so something to watch that could delay the colder flip (a more sustainable one) a bit.

Also how strong is the mjo and will it be the driving factor and something we just don't no at this point. I still believe the key to this winter is the blocking in Greenland and also Scand area.

Totally agree with this...

[MVWxObserver]

I watched some of the Ohio State vs Northwestern game earlier while eating lunch and could hear the wind at times knocking around via the TV from that one as they're getting gusts between 55 to 60 mph.

Currently 64 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

74 here today. A few sprinkles but that's it so far. Got the brisket done too!

[tron777]

I wonder if I'll go with no measurable rain for this event. Dang... Oh well, will make mulching leaves easy tomorrow.

[MVWxObserver]

CMH set a new record for the date with 77 breaking 76 from 1977!

CVG reached 74 and DAY 75.

[tpweather]

CMH set a new record for the date with 77 breaking 76 from 1977!

CVG reached 74 and DAY 75.

There is that year again. Even though that was a weak El Nino we may end up this being a weak La Nina before all is said and done. The weaker versions usually benefit us more with winter like weather. No doubt going to get colder late next week into the weekend. This first shot looks to be rather strong cold shot but how long it hangs around is still up for discussion. Early winter very much on the table as Mother Nature gave us the clues and we are starting to see those clues with the weather models.

[tron777]

El Zippo here... CVG 0.01" No rain in sight until probably Vet's Day with the next front and it also looks light for amounts. The drought rages on...

[tpweather]

El Zippo here... CVG 0.01" No rain in sight until probably Vet's Day with the next front and it also looks light for amounts. The drought rages on...

Good Morning Les and I thought some rain would fall at home. Received around 1 inch down here yesterday. Heading for Hilton Head later today and may just get lucky and have 4 dry days. Concerning the drought and we have been in a La Nina going on 3 years. The first 2 years were rather wet and normally La Nina's are drier than normal. This once again tells me Mother Nature balancing things out once again. Again short term droughts though a pain are needed sometimes so I don't worry at all. A few tornado's the other day and the media once again went wild that we have tornado's in November which is common but to them it meant climate change.

Forecasting is not easy and I wished I had grew up when the earth was flat. That would have made it a lot easier to forecast.

[tron777]

Have a great time golfing Tim! Going to grind leaves and watch some football here today. Boy oh boy... GFS in the extended range is looking wintry. We'll see if it holds.

[tron777]

MJO has made it into Phase 8 as of 11/4. Check out the 8-14 Day Outlook - Below normal temps for almost the entire country. Not bad!

rmm.phase.Last40days.gif

814temp.new.gif

[young pup]

No rain here yesterday. When i walked out last night, I could smell rain in the air but it was dry out. I forgot the models are now coming out earlier. Looked at the 0z earlier and just now the 12z. Looks interesting in the next 10 days.

[young pup]

CMH set a new record for the date with 77 breaking 76 from 1977!

CVG reached 74 and DAY 75.

There is that year again. Even though that was a weak El Nino we may end up this being a weak La Nina before all is said and done. The weaker versions usually benefit us more with winter like weather. No doubt going to get colder late next week into the weekend. This first shot looks to be rather strong cold shot but how long it hangs around is still up for discussion. Early winter very much on the table as Mother Nature gave us the clues and we are starting to see those clues with the weather models.

Tim and Eric a local meteorologist was talking about this on FB yesterday. Very interesting to say the least.

[dce]

MJO has made it into Phase 8 as of 11/4. Check out the 8-14 Day Outlook - Below normal temps for almost the entire country. Not bad!


rmm.phase.Last40days.gif


814temp.new.gif

There has to be accumulating snowfall for a decent portion of the nation with that look. If it verifies. If it does, I hope we are in one of those areas that sees snowfall. It would be great to have an early start to winter after all the late starts we have been seeing for several years now

[tron777]

MJO has made it into Phase 8 as of 11/4. Check out the 8-14 Day Outlook - Below normal temps for almost the entire country. Not bad!


rmm.phase.Last40days.gif


814temp.new.gif

There has to be accumulating snowfall for a decent portion of the nation with that look. If it verifies. If it does, I hope we are in one of those areas that sees snowfall. It would be great to have an early start to winter after all the late starts we have been seeing for several years now

12Z Euro has a winter storm by Day 10 with snow / mixed precip for all. GFS has a non-phased system and weak / light precip.

[airwolf76]

I hate hearing anything about real cold and snow this time of year I want fall and i want to enjoy autumn temps for as long as possible it is only early November yet. i am not sure why anyone would want cold and winter storms this time of year fall is short enough season as it is.

[tron777]

I hate hearing anything about real cold and snow this time of year I want fall and i want to enjoy autumn temps for as long as possible it is only early November yet. i am not sure why anyone would want cold and winter storms this time of year fall is short enough season as it is.

My original call was for it to change after Thanksgiving. It's going to change earlier like starting this weekend. Might see some snow by Day 10-15 somewhere in the Eastern US.