Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Got a long ways to go to get out of drought conditions



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These maps are nice to see but wrong in many places. My other location in Greenville,SC showing over 9 inches to take care of the drought is so wrong its not funny. Plenty of rain this year and vegetation is greener than normal so I am not sure how and where they get the info for these maps but in this one case that I know of is so far off its not even funny.

[tron777]

What is odd about it too is that for our local area, that map does look good to me. I think I mentioned the other day along with Bgoney discussing it with me... that for CVG we probably needed somewhere around 4" and that was a few days ago. Could be 4.5 or 5" by the end of this week.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and at least we have some action today. Plenty of dry air and that worries me with my forecast. Dew points are heading north and east but will there be a big enough push to help overcome the dry layers in the atmosphere. Les did you see the drought monitor that Bgoney showed and not sure who makes up these maps but to have a personal take on a place I live and be so far from the truth makes me wonder about the map in general.

[Bgoney]

What is odd about it too is that for our local area, that map does look good to me. I think I mentioned the other day along with Bgoney discussing it with me... that for CVG we probably needed somewhere around 4" and that was a few days ago. Could be 4.5 or 5" by the end of this week.

Yea it's spot on for our region. Of course it can't detail smaller isolated differences, but is pretty accurate regionally

[tpweather]

What is odd about it too is that for our local area, that map does look good to me. I think I mentioned the other day along with Bgoney discussing it with me... that for CVG we probably needed somewhere around 4" and that was a few days ago. Could be 4.5 or 5" by the end of this week.

Yea it's spot on for our region. Of course it can't detail smaller isolated differences, but is pretty accurate regionally

I understand but to have one so far off makes the maps look bad. Matter of fact it shows 12-15 inches needed in Greenville County SC. The vegetation is great down there and the rainfall has been normal for the year. One thing to have a spot incorrect but its only a minor correction needed but this is so far off it makes me throw out the entire map though my guess many locations are correct. Again I am not big on short term droughts to begin with and once we get past 9-12 months then I start to get a little concerned.

[Bgoney]

What is odd about it too is that for our local area, that map does look good to me. I think I mentioned the other day along with Bgoney discussing it with me... that for CVG we probably needed somewhere around 4" and that was a few days ago. Could be 4.5 or 5" by the end of this week.

Yea it's spot on for our region. Of course it can't detail smaller isolated differences, but is pretty accurate regionally

I understand but to have one so far off makes the maps look bad. Matter of fact it shows 12-15 inches needed in Greenville County SC. The vegetation is great down there and the rainfall has been normal for the year. One thing to have a spot incorrect but its only a minor correction needed but this is so far off it makes me throw out the entire map though my guess many locations are correct. Again I am not big on short term droughts to begin with and once we get past 9-12 months then I start to get a little concerned.

Understand your position Tim, but seasonal precip doesn't matter, it could be well above normal for the season bit drought conditions can be present currently, its all about, what have you done for me lately. The ground could have been saturated 2 months ago bit that means nothing at present. The top 18 inches of soil is bone dry. Right now I'd rate damage to trees and shrubs as moderate, meaning a certain percentage is already damaged or are goners. Every week this drags on damage exponentially intensify. I'm in the field everday at various areas across the Eastside, and the stress and damage to plants is not good. On the bright side , this is great for business

[tron777]

My opinion is simply this... On a regional scale the map does a good job. Other smaller areas will def have their own micro climates. More rain or less rain then what the map indicates. That's why the map is way off for Greenville since they have been pretty wet. So regionally it's a nice guide. Individual locations will absolutely vary.

[tron777]

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 72 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 75.

[tron777]

Radar is about what I expected presentation wise and it is also moving more north then east. So my lower precip call might be good unfortunately Best chance at decent rains the further west you go. The further east you go, 0.10 or less most likely. Good luck tonight folks!

[tron777]

I think we have a 50 / 50 weekend upcoming. Saturday should be fine with highs 65 to 70 and some sunshine as well with increasing clouds late. The Euro this afternoon has an arrival time of Sunday afternoon with the next system. Question is... is it out for the kiddies on the 31st or drizzle / light rain still around? On this run, drizzle, light shower activity remains from Monday afternoon into evening hours. I don't see a washout for Halloween but it isn't looking 100% dry either is kind of my thinking. Temps in the 50s for the ghouls and goblins so seasonal. This is a nice call for Halloween. Think I'll role with it for my forecast.

[MVWxObserver]

ILN is progging between a tenth and a quarter for up my way overnight.

Currently still at 72 here in my area.

[tron777]

ILN is progging between a tenth and a quarter for up my way overnight.

Currently still at 72 here in my area.

That should be a common range for most folks... I hope! 74 at CVG.

[tron777]

Good evening all...

Some very light rain falling here. Trace so far as the "wall of rain" begins to move into the area tonight. The lighter call looking good for this event per radar presentation. But it is welcome to see something register in the bucket after a month, literally for CVG Land since we've seen something of this magnitude move in. 0.07" at CVG for the driest Rocktober on record going into today. This one and weekend / Halloween system will add, but a Top 10 Dry Rocktober is possible. 0.17" is the driest from 1924 and to get into the Top Ten, we've got 0.59" from 1964. We shall see!

[young pup]

It's so dry the leaves are falling off trees just with a little wind. I did one property yesterday. Drove by today and it is completely covered. Phone is ringing off the hook. Doesn't help that I had to take a sick day today as I I was feeling horrible yesterday but worked anyway. Hopefully all will get some rain as these dry leaves is not good if they get any kind of spark to them.

[MVWxObserver]

It's so dry the leaves are falling off trees just with a little wind. I did one property yesterday. Drove by today and it is completely covered. Phone is ringing off the hook. Doesn't help that I had to take a sick day today as I I was feeling horrible yesterday but worked anyway. Hopefully all will get some rain as these dry leaves is not good if they get any kind of spark to them.

Prayers that you'll feel much better soon bro!

[MVWxObserver]

DAY reached 78, CMH 76 and CVG 75 on Tues.

Currently 59 here in G'ville.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and finally some rain. I loved listening to the sound of raindrops hitting the rooftop. Heading to SC on Thursday and will be gone for about 17 days. Bgoney and Les both made good points about the drought conditions and the drought map. I probably downplayed it too much and when the map does not add up to an area you live in then you tend to question the whole map which is no doubt wrong. Good to have these resources but also I hope folks know in their own back yard whether the conditions are hurting their plant life and to water as needed and not just rely on these maps. I believe the shock of seeing Greenville county being behind 9-12 inches was so wrong that it threw me off and I just threw out the map which again was not the correct way to approach the map.

[Bgoney]

.10" for home .20" Indian Hill. Pretty much went as expected. Atm , Sunday/Monday looks about the same, .10"-.40" for much of region. The return flow off the Gulf just isn't strong enough into the OV for big rains. Hopefulmthat comes later in November.

[tron777]

CVG actually got 0.42" total out of the deal. 0.48" at the Boone Co mesonet and around 0.45" for me. I am thrilled! Closer to Tim's call for CVG then mine so I'm happy! Still, the amounts drop off significantly to the east as was expected. Overall, not a bad forecast. Agree that we'll see a similar deal for Sunday into Halloween. Nice weather though Thurs - Sat this week so enjoy it!

[tpweather]

Rainfall total at my house 0.44 and CVG recorded 0.42 I believe. Les when we disagree the outcome is usually somewhere in between and that is exactly what happen with this system. I know folks to the east got less and folks to the west more and that was expected. Next system for late in the weekend and probably Halloween is next in line and hopefully more rain will fall. November will start out mild as expected and still rather dry at the moment but that should change as we start to get more cold air involved with systems as we head into the second week of the month.

[tron777]

Rainfall total at my house 0.44 and CVG recorded 0.42 I believe. Les when we disagree the outcome is usually somewhere in between and that is exactly what happen with this system. I know folks to the east got less and folks to the west more and that was expected. Next system for late in the weekend and probably Halloween is next in line and hopefully more rain will fall. November will start out mild as expected and still rather dry at the moment but that should change as we start to get more cold air involved with systems as we head into the second week of the month.

Yes! You said that the other day that we'd meet in the middle. You turned out to be exactly right. Not a drought buster but every drop is very much needed and at least the dust will be settled down for a couple of days anyway.

[cloudy72]

A much needed 0.44" for me and still getting some rain now,

[tpweather]

A much needed 0.44" for me and still getting some rain now,

Glad to see Mike. Cvg is up to 0.44 as well but that is probably the final total. I made it to 0.45 so very happy and of course the leaves came a tumbling down last night and they will be here until I get back in mid-November.

[tron777]

Awesome Mike on the rain!!! A bunch leaves came down here also, which is good. Get 'em down early so I'm not mulching in December. Oaks are just starting to change on the tops now but they're always late as compared to the rest of 'em (maples, ash, black walnut, etc)