Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

BG Tweeted out the update drought map and everyone is either at D0 or D1 conditions.


DroughtCity.jpg

That's about as widespread as I've seen for our region in quite a while. WATER THOSE EVERGREENS!!!!!!

No doubt the driest I have been for years!!!

[tron777]

Les has me looking at the models this week and if I am correct they are keeping the cold front about 24-36 hours slower than before. Does this mean more rain,less rain or no rain. I am still on the 2 cold front train but seems the models are going that way but the timing is off and quite a bit off. Unable to get the Euro and maybe Les can talk about that model since its offline on the sources I have looked at this morning.

Yeah... the 12Z GFS has a stronger low pressure system now so a slower moving storm system. We don't see rain now until late Wed afternoon, but even then it's in a weakening state because it's running into the ridge, our drought, etc. So the point for me still stands. Light rain amounts only next week, with timing still up in the air. 12Z Euro starts at 2pm.

[tron777]

BG Tweeted out the update drought map and everyone is either at D0 or D1 conditions.


DroughtCity.jpg

That's about as widespread as I've seen for our region in quite a while. WATER THOSE EVERGREENS!!!!!!

No doubt the driest I have been for years!!!

I agree... I lost an evergreen back in the Aug of 2007 drought. Don't want to lose the other two or three I still have. Been growing for like over 40 years.

[tron777]

ALERT: FYI - ILN Radar to go down for the next 7 days beginning 10/21 for maintenance. Note... You'll need Adobe Reader to view the below document.

https://www.weather.gov/media/iln/NWSWi ... er2022.pdf


The second ALERT I have for you is that the frost and freeze program for ILN's CWA has ended until Spring of 2023 when the growing season resumes. The growing season for 2022 is now officially over!


https://www.weather.gov/iln/fallfrostfreeze

[tpweather]

The clouds are keeping the temps rather cold today.

[tron777]

The clouds are keeping the temps rather cold today.

Yep. I mentioned that in an earlier post. I hit 51 here before the clouds completely took over. Been holding in the U40s since. 48 so far at CVG, that's it.

[tron777]

[tpweather]

2 items from Brian's video and the first is the NOAA WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE. Okay caps were not needed because I could have drawn that map well in advance. The second item is the possible 2 systems he is seeing on some of the data next week. The first one is weak and may not have much of a punch but the second if it pans out could deliver some rainfall for us. We have plenty of time to see if this happens and at least I am not on the island by myself which happens quite often with my longer term forecasting.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is also slow like the GFS, but again, the rain weakens as it comes in. We can adjust timing later, but no changes from me unfortunately for next week at this time.

[tron777]

2 items from Brian's video and the first is the NOAA WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE. Okay caps were not needed because I could have drawn that map well in advance. The second item is the possible 2 systems he is seeing on some of the data next week. The first one is weak and may not have much of a punch but the second if it pans out could deliver some rainfall for us. We have plenty of time to see if this happens and at least I am not on the island by myself which happens quite often with my longer term forecasting.

NOAA's Outlook is certainly an interesting look for the OV. As usual... can we get some blocking to assist with phasing or not. That is always so key for us. If early signs mean anything, then odds might be good!

[tpweather]

Les we are somewhat different on the forecast next week but this should help us get ready for the winter forecasting later on this year. The NOAA maps were just a pure La Nina map except a little more ridging in the plains as they expect the drought to continue in that area. This could bring us more clippers and that has been rather rare in the past several winters and can we get a big storm or two which is really how many of the La Nina;s work with plenty of dry times but usually a big storm or two when we see a pattern change.

[tron777]

Les we are somewhat different on the forecast next week but this should help us get ready for the winter forecasting later on this year. The NOAA maps were just a pure La Nina map except a little more ridging in the plains as they expect the drought to continue in that area. This could bring us more clippers and that has been rather rare in the past several winters and can we get a big storm or two which is really how many of the La Nina;s work with plenty of dry times but usually a big storm or two when we see a pattern change.

Speaking of the drought... Approx 80% of the country is D0 or above. Wondering how this could impact future storm systems? Sure hope the November rains come, so to speak.

Drought.PNG

[tpweather]

Usually when we have La Nina's much of the country is drier than normal. The last two years we know the western half of the country has been but we have been lucky until recent months in the drought department. Though the drought conditions are rather large it is not unusual to see that during La Nina's and of course being a 3rd year La Nina we don't have a lot of info to go on.

[tron777]

Usually when we have La Nina's much of the country is drier than normal. The last two years we know the western half of the country has been but we have been lucky until recent months in the drought department. Though the drought conditions are rather large it is not unusual to see that during La Nina's and of course being a 3rd year La Nina we don't have a lot of info to go on.

I'm thankful ours waited until the bulk of the growing season was over. Made it easier for farmer's to harvest as well.

[tron777]

Sun's coming back out now, but we are about done with peak heating. Mid 50s will probably do it for today.

[young pup]

I suppose it’s time to let y’all know that I am moving to Lebanon as that is where my girlfriend and her kids reside! Very excited for the future! Hello Warren Co!

Any Lebanon members on here?

Awesome! Your avg snowfall may increase by a couple of inches now.

Congrats Trevor.

And Les LOL The heat miser will love that.

[young pup]

BG Tweeted out the update drought map and everyone is either at D0 or D1 conditions.


DroughtCity.jpg

That's about as widespread as I've seen for our region in quite a while. WATER THOSE EVERGREENS!!!!!!

I'm seeing some struggling up my way. Trying to tell the customer to water them is like talking to a wall. They are not listening.

[young pup]

That little bit of rain we got up here did not help holding the dust down. We did some leaf work today and they were rather dry. Used the mowers to suck up some and the dust was just a flying. Looked like a small dust storm blew up.

[tron777]

I suppose it’s time to let y’all know that I am moving to Lebanon as that is where my girlfriend and her kids reside! Very excited for the future! Hello Warren Co!

Any Lebanon members on here?

Awesome! Your avg snowfall may increase by a couple of inches now.

Congrats Trevor.

And Les LOL The heat miser will love that.

You know it!

[tron777]

That little bit of rain we got up here did not help holding the dust down. We did some leaf work today and they were rather dry. Used the mowers to suck up some and the dust was just a flying. Looked like a small dust storm blew up.

I mulched leaves in my yard for the first time last weekend and the dust was indeed awful! Had to take leaf blower when I was done to blow the dust off the mower and such. Heck, put the blower on your car and watch the layer of dust get blown off. We could really use some rain just to rinse things off if nothing else.

[tron777]

41 imby this morning so much warmer. Clear skies and S winds should get us to 70 today. In fact, thanks to our next system slowing down, we could have 5 70 degree days in a row! How about that huh? Mid to U70s this weekend and also for Monday and Tues as well. It'll be windy during this time with gusts to 20-25 mph each afternoon. As far as rain chances go, I am changing my forecast and going dry thru Tuesday and having POPS in for Tues night and Wednesday. The front looks to now cross the area sometime Wed afternoon and evening. Then we drop back towards normal... low to mid 60s after that.

[tpweather]

41 imby this morning so much warmer. Clear skies and S winds should get us to 70 today. In fact, thanks to our next system slowing down, we could have 5 70 degree days in a row! How about that huh? Mid to U70s this weekend and also for Monday and Tues as well. It'll be windy during this time with gusts to 20-25 mph each afternoon. As far as rain chances go, I am changing my forecast and going dry thru Tuesday and having POPS in for Tues night and Wednesday. The front looks to now cross the area sometime Wed afternoon and evening. Then we drop back towards normal... low to mid 60s after that.

Good Morning Les and no doubt the slower progression that the models showed yesterday looks good. First chance of rain Wednesday and then I believe a much better shot on the weekend. Not changing my forecast though I had to push it back by a 1 day to 1 1/2 days with the slower movement and part of that is the high in the Atlantic and the low it shows in the mid-Atlantic and again I am still somewhat confused on that system and where it might end up going.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim... the interesting thing about that next system coming in after Wed, is that it appears to be slow moving upper low so a cloudy, cool, and damp Pre-Halloween weekend is possible. At this time, it should move out for a decent Halloween, but we'll keep an eye on it. Things can change.

[tron777]

The Euro is much slower with the Pre-Halloween weekend system. I'll bet it lingers into the 31st if the Euro went past Day 10. I'll go dry for Halloween right now, but keep in mind, it could change.

[tpweather]

The Euro is much slower with the Pre-Halloween weekend system. I'll bet it lingers into the 31st if the Euro went past Day 10. I'll go dry for Halloween right now, but keep in mind, it could change.

Should be interesting next week. The first system even though it may not give us a ton of rain we should get some but also finally starting to moisten up the atmosphere which has been so dry in the past month. Then we get cooler air to flow in here late in the week followed by another system that should bring warm moist air on top of cooler air at the surface which is always a good recipe for rain or snow in the winter time.