Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Def waiting until the wind calms down as well for leaf grinding. Maybe this weekend? We'll see... got football to watch!

Lol and that is my thought process as well. Football first, leaves not even a close second.

Cold Beer also tied for first.

[tron777]

Looking further down the road and models are starting to disagree once we get past mid-week. The gfs wants to continue with another shot of cold air late next week while the Euro and CMC are giving us more of a zonal flow. A couple of things will influence the outcome. First the AO and NAO are predicted to be negative this weekend and early next week and we get the nice cold shot. After that do both of these head towards neutral or even positive and will we get a storm system to finally hit the west coast. I am leaning towards the Euro/CMC at the moment which would bring us milder air and then a more active storm pattern. Mid-October through early Dec is our second sort of wet/severe season and not every year has tons of rain or any severe weather but what I am seeing long term is no doubt a better shot of rain and again no way to predict severe weather that far out in the future. I believe these two things happen if the storms start coming into the pacific northwest and the AO and NAO get into the neutral or positive range. I really want to those get into that range as snow was early in Siberia and parts of eastern Canada but has sort of stalled. We need the AO and NAO to remain in the neutral or positive range the next several weeks and this will allow more snow to fall in the northern areas of the globe and then once you get past early November very little melting will happen up there. So yes I am expecting a milder November and that is fine with me because even when you have cold Novembers its hard to get snow and if it does snow it usually melts away in a couple of days. I love Dec and Jan snows because many times the snow is on the ground for a few weeks.

After next week's cold shot, if you saw what I posted on the PNA, it should be going negative as we get towards the final week of the month. Do we get a brief change for some storminess out west and we get some wetter weather around here for a change? If so for how long? Those are the questions I am tossing around for discussion if you saw my post from last night. At the same time, if we keep the -NAO, a negative PNA and a negative NAO isn't a terrible pattern deeper into winter. Of course you need some luck for snow this time of year and even sometimes in November. Anyway... the PNA has been driving the bus recently. MJO going thru a tour of Phases 6-8 which are cold in a Nina for Rocktober hence the cold pattern we're in and for next week too. Where do we go from here? I am watching the PNA.

[tpweather]

Def waiting until the wind calms down as well for leaf grinding. Maybe this weekend? We'll see... got football to watch!

Lol and that is my thought process as well. Football first, leaves not even a close second.

Cold Beer also tied for first.

No doubt and a bowl of chile

[tron777]

Def waiting until the wind calms down as well for leaf grinding. Maybe this weekend? We'll see... got football to watch!

Lol and that is my thought process as well. Football first, leaves not even a close second.

Cold Beer also tied for first.

No doubt and a bowl of chile

Funny you say that. I am having chili on Sunday.

[tron777]

Wow.... thru right now... CVG has only had 0.12" of rain for the month. We have a lot of Rocktober to go, but here are the Top Ten Driest Rocktobers at CVG for those interested.

CVGRocktoberDry.PNG

[Snowbrain2]

Looks likely that our first snow accumulation will probably occur early next week for snow belt region of Ohio into western New York State. All guidance shows it.
Would love to see this pattern toward mid November. Trough digs in and disturbances spin through for a few days. Lakes add moisture and instability is high between lake and 850 MB temperatures.

[tron777]

Looks likely that our first snow accumulation will probably occur early next week for snow belt region of Ohio into western New York State. All guidance shows it.
Would love to see this pattern toward mid November. Trough digs in and disturbances spin through for a few days. Lakes add moisture and instability is high between lake and 850 MB temperatures.

Totally agree Jeff! Early next week, esp Mon night into early Tues, the lake effect machine should be going. Air should be cold enough at night and in the morning for snow. Please keep us updated!

[tpweather]

IMG_0247 leaves 1.jpg

IMG_0249 leaves 2.jpg

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Had no leaves Wednesday morning and here is the current condition of my backyard.

[tron777]

Love those colors Tim!

[tpweather]

Nice to hear Brian talked about the cold early next week and he even mentioned snow flurries for Cincinnati. Again these would be minor at best and we may have enough moisture to squeeze a few out but nothing to write home about. Do we see another cold period late next week and I am still 50/50 on this at the moment.

[tron777]

Nice to hear Brian talked about the cold early next week and he even mentioned snow flurries for Cincinnati. Again these would be minor at best and we may have enough moisture to squeeze a few out but nothing to write home about. Do we see another cold period late next week and I am still 50/50 on this at the moment.

It wouldn't surprise me to see one more round of cold before the +PNA relaxes. Sometime between 10/20 and 10/24 is when I expect the flip.

[tpweather]

Nice to hear Brian talked about the cold early next week and he even mentioned snow flurries for Cincinnati. Again these would be minor at best and we may have enough moisture to squeeze a few out but nothing to write home about. Do we see another cold period late next week and I am still 50/50 on this at the moment.

It wouldn't surprise me to see one more round of cold before the +PNA relaxes. Sometime between 10/20 and 10/24 is when I expect the flip.

Les I am just not sure on this part of the forecast. Sooner or later we will see systems move into the pacific northwest and mild air will filter in here. I believe the cold early next week hangs on until Wednesday but what happens after that I need a few more days to see if another shot of cold can get in here or will the pattern turn more of a west to east pattern that would no doubt bring up some milder air. A few days to see how things progress.

[tron777]

Nice to hear Brian talked about the cold early next week and he even mentioned snow flurries for Cincinnati. Again these would be minor at best and we may have enough moisture to squeeze a few out but nothing to write home about. Do we see another cold period late next week and I am still 50/50 on this at the moment.

It wouldn't surprise me to see one more round of cold before the +PNA relaxes. Sometime between 10/20 and 10/24 is when I expect the flip.

Les I am just not sure on this part of the forecast. Sooner or later we will see systems move into the pacific northwest and mild air will filter in here. I believe the cold early next week hangs on until Wednesday but what happens after that I need a few more days to see if another shot of cold can get in here or will the pattern turn more of a west to east pattern that would no doubt bring up some milder air. A few days to see how things progress.

Tim, I agree. Monday through about maybe Thurs, should feature temps below 60 degrees. I am seeing one more brief dip in the jet, mainly centered over New England by next weekend so after 10/24 or 10/25... etc, the ridge should begin to build in here as well as warmer air. Now, how long does it last? Thru Halloween? Into November? Do we flip back to cold in November? All questions that I don't yet have an answer to either. Only thing I am halfway confident on is when the PNA flips. Not at all confident on how long it lasts.

[tron777]

Clouds should begin to clear after midnight. Not so sure about any patchy frost tonight, even if temps do dip into the 30s. Wind is my concern for that. Sunny tomorrow but windy with gusts to 40 mph possible in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 70 across the coverage area. Even with that next weak front coming in this weekend, the weather isn't going to be too awful for outdoor plans. Deep Fall weather with highs in the 60s lows in the 40s. Then we get very cold next week as previously mentioned. Frost likely and a freeze too.

I am not going to forecast any flakes Tues morning here. Not yet anyway.

[young pup]

Picked up 3 tenths of an inch overnight. Quite a few leaves are falling and the colors this year are absolutely awesome.

[Bgoney]

Prospects for beneficial rains not looking good in the extended. The region is Not where you want to be heading into late fall/Winter.

Screenshot_20221014-064054_Samsung Internet.jpg

[tpweather]

No doubt its been dry for the past couple of months though some folks did well in August. A drier than normal pattern is usually one you see with a La Nina and really been rather lucky up to this point. The dry spell in the fall does not worry me as much compared to spring and summer. We were overdo for a dry spell and other parts of the world like France had a dry spell but theirs happened in the summer which caused more problems. The media will say this is caused by climate change but none of them lived through the 1930's in the plains when there really was a true long term drought and of course we have had many shorter term droughts over the years and again repeating myself Mother Nature just doing her balancing act to keep the planet going. Living in the Ohio Valley we get all types of weather but one thing we usually don't see is longer periods of drought,rain,snow,etc like other parts of the world.

[tron777]

37 this morning IMBY... on our way to sunshine, windy conditions and the low and mid 60s. Mid 60s Sat and U60s to near 70 on Sun. The weekend isn't bad at all to be honest. Then we get cold next week as has already been discussed. Still looking good for the 40s for highs on Tues per Tim and U20s to L30s for several mornings as well next week. Unfortunately, rain prospects aren't high at all for the next 7-10 days.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and I agree until we change the pattern rain will be scattered at best. I am looking forward to a change to milder and hopefully wetter pattern later this month and very seldom do I want a warmer pattern. Getting into the second rainy season before winter and hopefully the next 6 weeks will bring us some decent rains. 3rd year La Nina's are rare and trying to grasp on what may happen from the past is not easy. There are many other factors as well and getting an exact analog is rare. I still believe an early start to winter as Mother Nature throws out her clues but will the winter then turn mild and stay that way or do we keep winter going longer into the heart of winter. No ideal yet but hopefully the next 6 weeks will help answer some of the questions.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and I agree until we change the pattern rain will be scattered at best. I am looking forward to a change to milder and hopefully wetter pattern later this month and very seldom do I want a warmer pattern. Getting into the second rainy season before winter and hopefully the next 6 weeks will bring us some decent rains. 3rd year La Nina's are rare and trying to grasp on what may happen from the past is not easy. There are many other factors as well and getting an exact analog is rare. I still believe an early start to winter as Mother Nature throws out her clues but will the winter then turn mild and stay that way or do we keep winter going longer into the heart of winter. No ideal yet but hopefully the next 6 weeks will help answer some of the questions.

I'm not sure we get that 6 weeks of wet before winter comes that we usually do get in Fall. Again, as I've said, I believe the -PNA will come by the last week of the month, but I am not sure how long it lasts. We could revert back to the +PNA for a while again. That's what I don't yet know or have little confidence in. I keep hearing talk of the STJ getting stronger as we head into winter so if that is going to occur, we'd better see that in November. I am not yet convinced on that either.

[tpweather]

Les I heard that as well from some really good long term mets. Hopefully they are correct and this would happen we may see a La Nina act more towards a El Nino. We have time to see if that happens and that part of the forecast I will try and rely on them for their knowledge. Does not always mean I will agree but if I see signs of the STJ getting stronger then I will pay even more attention to what they are seeing.

[tron777]

Les I heard that as well from some really good long term mets. Hopefully they are correct and this would happen we may see a La Nina act more towards a El Nino. We have time to see if that happens and that part of the forecast I will try and rely on them for their knowledge. Does not always mean I will agree but if I see signs of the STJ getting stronger then I will pay even more attention to what they are seeing.

Same here. Funny thing... the +PNA we are having now is typical of a Nino versus a Nina. So I do find that ironic. Also, the tropical forcing in the Indian Ocean region which is causing the +PNA now, has the opposite effect in the winter time so we do need to see that change as well. SE Ridge is No Bueno!

[tron777]

Wow! CVG got colder then me. Up to 38 now, but the site briefly dipped to 35 earlier.

[tpweather]

37 here this morning but no frost that I can see. Raking those darn leaves today plus I have noticed my pear trees in front of the house are starting to change which is really early for them and sometimes its almost Thanksgiving before they start to change.

[tron777]

The Operational GFS runs overnight have just about abandoned the -PNA idea and keep the PNA either weakly positive to neutral instead. It evens tries to spin up some wet snow mixing in with the rain close to us, just a chilly rain here, in Fantasy Land. Of course, that storm was gone on the next run, 6Z but the lack of -PNA in the extended change was still there. Huh...

So I checked the GEFS to see if it offered support and the PNA is weakly negative to neutral. This tells me to holldddd onnn there Wilbur and we need to see if this is a head fake. Models are def struggling with how to handle the extended range. No doubt about it. The EPS has the -PNA and most of the CONUS is flooded with mild air. That's been the call from me in about 10 days from now. We'll see. Models are not in sync here after what to do once the cold retreats.